Geology topics

Justin D. Chaffin

Publications and source records attributed to Justin D. Chaffin.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

A space-time geostatistical model for probabilistic estimation of harmful algal bloom biomass and areal extent

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in intensity across many waterbodies worldwide, including the western basin of Lake Erie. Substantial efforts have been made to track these blooms using in situ sampling and remote sensing. However, such measurements do not fully capture HAB spatial and temporal dynamics due to the limitations of discrete shipboard sampling over large areas and the effects of clouds and winds on remote sensing estimates. To address these limitations, we develop a space-time geostatistical modeling framework to improve estimates of HAB timing, extent, and intensity using five independent sets of chlorophyll a (chl-a) data sampled from June to October, 2008 to 2017. Based on the Bayesian information criterion for model selection, trend variables explain bloom northerly and easterly expansion from Maumee Bay, wind effects over depth, and variability among sampling methods. Cross validation results indicate the model can estimate daily, location-specific chl-a concentrations with reasonable accuracy (R2 = 55%) between monitoring cruises. Conditional simulations provide probabilistic estimates of algal biomass and surface areal extent, which are compared to remote sensing estimates. The simulations also provide, for the first time, comprehensive estimates of overall bloom biomass based on depth-integrated concentrations, with quantified uncertainties. These estimates enhance our understanding of HAB variability and can inform HAB monitoring network design, predictive modeling, and management.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2016

Internal loading of phosphorus in western Lake Erie

This study applied eight techniques to obtain estimates of the diffusive flux of phosphorus (P) from bottom sediments throughout the western basin of Lake Erie. The flux was quantified from both aerobic and anaerobic incubations of whole cores; by monitoring the water encapsulated in bottom chambers; from pore water concentration profiles measured with a phosphate microelectrode, a diffusive equilibrium in thin films (DET) hydrogel, and expressed pore waters; and from mass balance and biogeochemical diagenetic models. Fluxes under aerobic conditions at summertime temperatures averaged 1.35 mg P/m 2 /day and displayed spatial variability on scales as small as a centimeter. Using two different temperature correction factors, the flux was adjusted to mean annual temperature yielding average annual fluxes of 0.43–0.91 mg P/m 2 /day and a western basin-wide total of 378–808 Mg P/year as the diffusive flux from sediments. This is 3–7% of the 11,000 Mg P/year International Joint Commission (IJC) target load for phosphorus delivery to Lake Erie from external sources. Using these average aerobic fluxes, the sediment contributes 3.0–6.3 μg P/L as a background internal contribution that represents 20–42% of the IJC Target Concentration of 15 μg P/L for the western basin. The implication is that this internal diffusive recycling of P is unlikely to trigger cyanobacterial blooms by itself but is sufficiently large to cause blooms when combined with external loads. This background flux may be also responsible for delayed response of the lake to any decrease in the external loading.

Lake Erie↗