Geology topics

Justin Bopp

Publications and source records attributed to Justin Bopp.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Reevaluation of an adaptive management framework for invasive Grass Carp within Lake Erie

Objective Response efforts to control invasive species frequently require making decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Adaptive management, which emphasizes learning during the process of managing, can be useful in cases where uncertainty impedes the decision-making process. Here, we describe how technical and institutional learning led to reformulating decision-making elements, known as double-loop learning, and how uncertainty stemming from a lack of knowledge influenced the selection of alternative strategies in an ongoing adaptive management process for invasive Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in Lake Erie. Methods When response efforts began, little was known about the population dynamics, ecology, and biology of Grass Carp within the lake. The availability of funding for sustained response efforts was also unknown. A network population model was constructed that relied heavily on values and estimates from limited data to project adult Grass Carp abundance in Lake Erie and evaluate the ability of various response strategies to achieve the desired objectives. After this initial assessment, the collection of new information was emphasized as response efforts increased to aid future assessments. With this expanded knowledge and including additional input from stakeholders, we modified the population model, evaluated new response scenarios, refined objectives, and examined the influence of uncertainty (parameter and expert opinion) on Grass Carp response efforts. Results Under uncertainty of population model parameters and expert opinion, the value-of-information analysis revealed that uncertainties in spawning deterrent efficacy, survival, and the underlying stock–recruitment relationship were important and could change the preferred decision. The efficiency of spawning deterrents influenced the preferred decision outcome among alternative strategies, particularly when >80% of fish were allowed to pass and spawn, indicating that a deterrent may not be worth implementing if passing rates are above this threshold. Conclusions We thereby demonstrate the benefits for invasive species management programs of implementing learning and resolving uncertainties within an adaptive management framework to improve decision making.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2024

Assessing grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) occupancy and detection probability within Lake Erie from environmental DNA

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ), an invasive cyprinid within the Laurentian Great Lakes, is naturally reproducing in several Lake Erie tributaries, which has raised concerns of the species’ spread throughout Lake Erie and the other Great Lakes. Knowledge of the recent invasion extent outside of the western basin of Lake Erie, particularly in eastern tributaries and nearshore waters, is limited. Understanding the invasion extent would improve the efficacy of ongoing coordinated multi-agency control efforts. Molecular tools, such as environmental DNA (eDNA), have shown promise for early detection of aquatic invasive species. In this study, water samples (N = 476) were collected for grass carp eDNA monthly between May and November in 2018 and 2019, at three sites in the Michigan waters of Lake Erie and the Detroit River. We fit Bayesian multi-scale occupancy models to determine differences in eDNA capture and detection probability among grass carp qPCR assays, sampling sites, and across time. To determine whether grass carp were physically present, and to validate eDNA samples, we quantified recent grass carp presence in sampled areas using an existing acoustic telemetry and field sampling framework. Our results indicate that grass carp eDNA capture probability differed among sites, but there was no difference among months. Positive grass carp eDNA detections were observed across multiple months at each site, with 69% of site-specific sampling events testing positive for grass carp eDNA on at least one assay and replicate. The majority (65%) of weeks where positive eDNA sampling detections occurred also concurrently had one or more grass carp detected via acoustic telemetry 1–6 days prior. Our results highlight the potential utility of using eDNA to monitor the invasion extent of grass carp within the nearshore waters of Lake Erie. However, further evaluation of the factors that influence grass carp eDNA characteristics among sites within Lake Erie are needed to determine its efficacy for surveillance protocols by natural resource management agencies.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2023

Drivers and timing of grass carp movement within the Sandusky River, Ohio: Implications to potential spawning barrier response strategy

Understanding the timing and drivers of migration can be beneficial for improving response efforts aimed at reducing invasive species densities. Efforts by management agencies to remove grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella) , an invasive species to the Laurentian Great Lakes, have been ongoing in Lake Erie tributaries since 2018. To bolster efforts, deployment of a non-physical barrier has been proposed downstream of a known grass carp spawning location near Brady’s Island (BI) in the Sandusky River, OH, USA to limit recruitment. However, knowledge of grass carp migratory timing, the environmental variables that cue carp migration, and the potential effects the barrier might impose on native fish [e.g., walleye ( Sander vitreus )] movements would help inform barrier deployment and scheduling. We used detection data from grass carp ( n = 29) and walleye ( n = 84) tagged with acoustic transmitters to address four objectives: (1) quantify interannual variation (years = 2015–2021) of grass carp migration timing to BI; (2) evaluate timing of different grass carp movement modalities (residents and migrants); (3) assess overlap in migration timing with native walleye, and (4) evaluate environmental cues of grass carp migration to BI. Median grass carp arrival at BI occurred within a three-week period (148–165 Julian days), suggesting that deploying a barrier immediately prior to this time frame may be effective for deterring grass carp spawning. Temperature, photoperiod, and discharge influenced grass carp migration timing given that most arrival events occurred at daylengths > 14.5 h, temperatures exceeding 18 °C, and low discharge events (< 3,000 cubic feet second −1 [CFS]). Minimal interannual variability in migration timing existed for grass carp and walleye over a six-year period. However, the median departure time of walleye was more than 45 days before the median arrival time of grass carp, suggesting a spawning barrier may minimally affect walleye spawning. No differences in arrival timing at BI were observed between grass carp migratory contingents, indicating that if a barrier were deployed in the spring, it would likely affect all grass carp spatial contingents. This work highlights management implications of barrier control efforts of aquatic invasive species and provides insight into the environmental cues that grass carp use for upstream migration.

Ohio↗