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Justin A. Gude

Publications and source records attributed to Justin A. Gude.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Wolf harvest management strategy evaluation: Annual Report, 2024

Wolf harvest season setting is complicated and controversial. State law requires Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) to both reduce the wolf population and avoid federal relisting under the Endangered Species Act (Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks, 2002). Disparate stakeholder groups each have different objectives for wolf management. For instance, big game advocates want to see improved big game populations and hunting opportunities in northwest Montana, while wolf advocates want to see regulations that minimize wolf mortality. Decision making about season setting tries to balance these objectives. Wolf hunting and trapping season decisions are made by the Montana Fish and Wildlife Commission and are informed by annual wolf abundance estimates from an integrated patch occupancy model (iPOM, Sells et al., 2022c) as well as the predictions of wolf abundance into the future under potential constant harvest levels. Parametric uncertainty (uncertainty surrounding the value of a parameter) from the iPOM estimates is propagated through to future projections, providing the Commission with plausible and worst-case outcomes of different levels of public harvest over the short term, i.e., five years into the future, on the wolf population in Montana (Parks et al., 2024). An alternative approach to inform wolf management and harvest decisions is through adaptive management. Adaptative management is appropriate for decisions that are made iteratively and when monitoring data are collected to learn about the outcomes from decisions, where monitoring data help to reduce critical uncertainties regarding ecosystem function or management outcomes (Walters, 1986; Williams, 2011). Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is one way to develop an adaptive management framework. MSE was developed by fisheries managers and scientists to more accurately and fully incorporate various forms of uncertainty, consider long-term time horizons, and add more transparency in a fisheries context (Punt et al., 2016). It has been used routinely and has become a standard approach for complicated and contentious marine fisheries management situations, yet it has been underutilized in wildlife management (but see Bunnefeld et al., 2013, 2011). MSE is a forward simulation approach for testing prospective management options or strategies over a wide range of possible states (Punt et al., 2016). A MSE framework captures the ‘truth’ or what is happening in the system (termed the ‘the operating model’) and the information available to the decision makers (termed ‘the estimation model’ or ‘management strategy’). More precisely, there are four main processes modeled. First, models are constructed based on current understanding and data to represent ‘truth’. Second, the collection of monitoring data is simulated from the ‘truth’ model. Third, the simulated monitoring data are fit to an estimation model and the next time step’s population metrics are predicted from the estimated parameters. Fourth, based on the estimation model results and the predictions, the decision-making process is simulated following a management strategy, whereby a decision is made and the implementation of this decision feeds back into the ‘truth’ model (Figure 1). This process continues through time. Additionally, each simulation through time is repeated to capture the full range of stochasticity and uncertainty.

Montana↗
USGS2023

Diverse migratory portfolios drive inter-annual switching behavior of elk across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

A growing body of evidence shows that some ungulates alternate between migratory and nonmigratory behaviors over time. Yet it remains unclear whether such short-term behavioral changes can help explain reported declines in ungulate migration worldwide, as opposed to long-term demographic changes. Furthermore, advances in tracking technology reveal that a simple distinction between migration and nonmigration may not sufficiently describe all individual behaviors. To better understand the dynamics and drivers of ungulate switching behavior, we investigated 14 years of movement data from 361 elk in 20 herds across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). First, we categorized yearly individual behaviors using a clustering algorithm that identified similar migratory tactics across a continuum of behaviors. Then, we tested seven hypotheses to explain why some ungulates switch behaviors, and we evaluated how behavioral changes affected the proportions of different behaviors across the system. We identified four distinct behavioral tactics: residents (4.8% of elk-years), short-distance migrants (53.7%), elevational migrants (21.9%) and long-distance migrants (19.6%). Of the 20 herds, 18 were partially migratory, and 5 had all four movement tactics present. We observed switches between migratory tactics in all sets of consecutive years during our study period, with an average of 22.5% of individual elk changing movement tactics from one year to the next. Elk in herds with higher movement tactic diversity were significantly more likely to switch tactics and often responded more effectively to adverse environmental conditions, compared to those in herds with low movement tactic diversity. During our study period, switching increased the prevalence of both short- and long-distance migrants, decreased the prevalence of elevational migrants, and had no effect on the prevalence of residents. Our findings suggest that rather than contributing to the declining migratory behavior found in the GYE, switching behavior may enable greater resiliency to continuously changing environmental and anthropogenic conditions.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Multi-level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land-use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresh-olds might vary across levels of selection. 2. We evaluated multi-level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and as-sociated measures of land-use availability, we used functional-response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. 3. We found individual and level-specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second-order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third-order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth-order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. 4. Synthesis and applications . Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of under-standing variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land-use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Economical defence of resources structures territorial space use in a cooperative carnivore

Ecologists have long sought to understand space use and mechanisms underlying patterns observed in nature. We developed an optimality landscape and mechanistic territory model to understand mechanisms driving space use and compared model predictions to empirical reality. We demonstrate our approach using grey wolves ( Canis lupus ). In the model, simulated animals selected territories to economically acquire resources by selecting patches with greatest value, accounting for benefits, costs and trade-offs of defending and using space on the optimality landscape. Our approach successfully predicted and explained first- and second-order space use of wolves, including the population's distribution, territories of individual packs, and influences of prey density, competitor density, human-caused mortality risk and seasonality. It accomplished this using simple behavioural rules and limited data to inform the optimality landscape. Results contribute evidence that economical territory selection is a mechanistic bridge between space use and animal distribution on the landscape. This approach and resulting gains in knowledge enable predicting effects of a wide range of environmental conditions, contributing to both basic ecological understanding of natural systems and conservation. We expect this approach will demonstrate applicability across diverse habitats and species, and that its foundation can help continue to advance understanding of spatial behaviour.

Montana↗
USGS2022

Wildlife migrations highlight importance of both private lands and protected areas in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Formally protected areas are an important component of wildlife conservation, but face limitations in their effectiveness for migratory species. Improved stewardship of working lands around protected areas is one solution for conservation planning, but private working lands are vulnerable to development. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), ungulates such as elk ( Cervus canadensis ) use both protected areas and private lands throughout their annual migrations. We studied patterns of landownership, protection, and conservation challenges within the ranges of migratory elk in the GYE. We used GPS data from 1088 elk in 26 herds to define herd-level seasonal ranges, and extracted covariates related to landownership and protection, land use, and human infrastructure and development. All elk herds used land encompassing >1 ownership type. Most elk herds (92.3 % of herds, n = 24) used the highest proportion of private land in the winter (mean = 36.2 % private land). Most elk herds' winter ranges contained the highest building densities (mean = 1.24 buildings/km 2 ), fence densities (mean = 1.02 km fence/km 2 ), and cattle grazing (mean = 1.9 cows/km 2 ), compared to migratory and summer ranges. Out of all ranges, 36.5 % of ranges did not have any zoning regulations, indicating the potential for future development. Our results show that elk in the GYE rely on habitat outside of protected areas, and face landscape-scale conservation challenges such as habitat fragmentation from human development, particularly in winter ranges. Future conservation strategies for wildlife in this system need to encompass coordination across both public and private land to ensure migratory connectivity.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Evidence of economical territory selection in a cooperative carnivore

As an outcome of natural selection, animals are probably adapted to select territories economically by maximizing benefits and minimizing costs of territory ownership. Theory and empirical precedent indicate that a primary benefit of many territories is exclusive access to food resources, and primary costs of defending and using space are associated with competition, travel and mortality risk. A recently developed mechanistic model for economical territory selection provided numerous empirically testable predictions. We tested these predictions using location data from grey wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Montana, USA. As predicted, territories were smaller in areas with greater densities of prey, competitors and low-use roads, and for groups of greater size. Territory size increased before decreasing curvilinearly with greater terrain ruggedness and harvest mortalities. Our study provides evidence for the economical selection of territories as a causal mechanism underlying ecological patterns observed in a cooperative carnivore. Results demonstrate how a wide range of environmental and social conditions will influence economical behaviour and resulting space use. We expect similar responses would be observed in numerous territorial species. A mechanistic approach enables understanding how and why animals select particular territories. This knowledge can be used to enhance conservation efforts and more successfully predict effects of conservation actions.

Montana↗
USGS2019

Conserving transboundary wildlife migrations: Recent insights from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Animal migrations are ecologically, culturally, and economically important. Ungulate populations in many parts of Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas migrate long distances to access seasonally available resources, traversing vast landscapes in large numbers. Yet some migrations are declining, raising concerns among scientists and natural resource managers. We synthesize recent advances in ungulate migration ecology with relevance to management and policy. Using case studies from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), we show how new tools can be applied to map ungulate migrations and assess threats across multiple seasonal habitats, serving as a conservation roadmap. To help conserve ungulate migrations, we also propose a transboundary science, policy, and management framework that could be adapted beyond the GYE and that encompasses the needs of multiple species. The key elements of this framework consist of more widespread mapping and assessment of migrations, improved federal and state coordination across jurisdictional lines, increased investment in private land conservation, and strong engagement of local stakeholders positioned to sustain conservation activities over the long term.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2019

A collaborative approach to bridging the gap between wildlife managers and researchers

Although most wildlife professionals agree that science should inform wildlife management decisions, disconnect still exists between researchers and managers. If researchers are not striving to incorporate their findings into management decisions, support for research programs by managers can wane. If managers are not using research findings to inform management decisions, those decisions may be less effective or more vulnerable to legal challenges. Both of these situations can have negative consequences for wildlife conservation. We outline a collaborative research‐management approach to bridging the gap between wildlife managers and researchers. We describe differences in perspectives, perceptions, and priorities between managers and researchers; outline how and why the divide between researchers and managers has likely occurred and continues to grow; and present specific strategies and recommendations to foster stronger collaborations between managers and researchers. We advocate increased synergy between managers and researchers based on a shared vision of conservation and a collaborative structure that rewards researchers and managers. Most importantly, we suggest that relationships and communication between managers and researchers must be established early in research development and decision‐making processes, fostering the trust needed for collaboration. Institutions and agencies can facilitate these relationships by creating opportunities and incentives for integrating collaborative research into management decisions. We suggest this approach will strengthen ties between researchers and managers, increase relevance of research to management decisions, promote effectiveness of management decisions, reduce legal challenges, and ultimately produce positive, tangible, and lasting effects on wildlife conservation.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2019

Modeling elk‐to‐livestock transmission risk to predict hotspots of brucellosis spillover

Wildlife reservoirs of infectious disease are a major source of human‐wildlife conflict because of the risk of potential spillover associated with commingling of wildlife and livestock. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the presence of brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) in free‐ranging elk ( Cervus canadensis ) populations is of significant management concern because of the risk of disease transmission from elk to livestock. We identified how spillover risk changes through space and time by developing resource selection functions using telemetry data from 223 female elk to predict the relative probability of female elk occurrence daily during the transmission risk period. We combined these spatiotemporal predictions with elk seroprevalence, demography, and transmission timing data to identify when and where abortions (the primary transmission route of brucellosis) were most likely to occur. Additionally, we integrated our predictions of transmission risk with spatiotemporal data on areas of potential livestock use to estimate the daily risk to livestock. We predicted that approximately half of the transmission risk occurred on areas where livestock may be present (i.e., private property or grazing allotments). Of the transmission risk that occurred in livestock areas, 98% of it was on private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Disease prevalence, transmission timing, host abundance, and host distribution were all important factors in determining the potential for spillover risk. Our fine‐resolution (250‐m spatial, 1‐day temporal), large‐scale (17,732 km 2 ) predictions of potential elk‐to‐livestock transmission risk provide wildlife and livestock managers with a useful tool to identify higher risk areas in space and time and proactively focus actions in these areas to separate elk and livestock to reduce spillover risk.

Montana↗
USGS2018

Distinguishing values from science in decision making: Setting harvest quotas for mountain lions in Montana

The relative roles of science and human values can be difficult to distinguish when informal processes are used to make complex and contentious decisions in wildlife management. Structured Decision Making (SDM) offers a formal process for making such decisions, where scientific results and concepts can be disentangled from the values of differing stakeholders. We used SDM to formally integrate science and human values for a citizen working group of ungulate hunting advocates, lion hunting advocates, and outfitters convened to address the contentious allocation of harvest quotas for mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) in west‐central Montana, USA, during 2014. A science team consisting of mountain lion biologists and population ecologists convened to support the working group. The science team used integrated population models that incorporated 4 estimates of mountain lion density to estimate population trajectories for 5 alternative harvest quotas developed by the working group. Results of the modeling predicted that effects of each harvest quota were consistent across the 4 density estimates; harvest quotas affected predicted population trajectories for 5 years after implementation but differences were not strong. Based on these results, the focus of the working group changed to differences in values among stakeholders that were the true impediment to allocating harvest quotas. By distinguishing roles of science and human values in this process, the working group was able to collaboratively recommend a compromise solution. This solution differed little from the status quo that had been the focus of debate, but the SDM process produced understanding and buy‐in among stakeholders involved, reducing disagreements, misunderstanding, and unproductive arguments founded on informal application of scientific data and concepts. Whereas investments involved in conducting SDM may be unnecessary for many decisions in wildlife management, the investment may be beneficial for complex, contentious, and multiobjective decisions that integrate science and human values.

Montana↗
USGS2018

Estimating the risk of elk-to-livestock brucellosis transmission in Montana

Wildlife reservoirs of infectious disease are a major source of human-wildlife conflict because of the risk of potential spillover associated with commingling of wildlife and livestock. In Montana, the presence of brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in free-ranging elk (Cervus canadensis) populations is of significant management concern because of the risk of disease transmission from elk to livestock. To help mitigate potential conflict, we identified how spillover risk changes through space and time using a combination of elk population, disease, and movement data. We developed resource selection functions using telemetry data from 223 female elk to predict the relative probability of female elk occurrence on a daily basis during the 15 February-30 June transmission risk period. We combined these spatiotemporal predictions with elk seroprevalence, demography, and abortion timing data to identify when and where abortions (the primary transmission route of brucellosis) were most likely to occur. Additionally, we integrated these predictions with spatiotemporal data on livestock distribution to estimate the daily risk of livestock encountering brucellosis-induced elk abortions. We estimated that a minimum of ~17,500 adult female elk lived within our study area, which resulted in a conservative estimate of ~525 brucellosis-induced abortions each year. We predicted that approximately half of the transmission events occurred on livestock properties and 98% of those properties were private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Our fine-resolution (250-m spatial, 1-day temporal), large-scale (17,732 km2) predictions of potential elk-to-livestock transmission risk provide wildlife and livestock managers with a useful tool to identify higher risk areas in space and time and proactively focus actions in these areas to separate elk and livestock to reduce spillover risk.

Montana↗
USGS2016

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2015

Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species&rsquo; movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988&ndash;2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013&ndash;2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to harvest in one management unit may affect population growth in neighboring units where smaller or even no changes were made. Uncertainty regarding dispersal levels and initial population density may have a significant effect on predictions at a management unit scale (i.e. 2000 km 2 ), while at a regional scale (i.e. 50,000 km 2 ) large differences in initial population density result in relatively small changes in population growth rate, and uncertainty about dispersal may not be as influential. Doubling the presumed initial density from a low estimation of 2.19 total animals per 100 km 2 resulted in a difference in annual population growth rate of only 2.6% statewide when compared to high density of 4.04 total animals per 100 km 2 (low initial population estimate &lambda; = 0.99, while high initial population estimate &lambda; = 1.03). We suggest modeling tools such as this may be useful in harvest planning at a regional and statewide level.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2014

A test of the compensatory mortality hypothesis in mountain lions: a management experiment in West-Central Montana

Mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) are widely hunted for recreation, population control, and to reduce conflict with humans, but much is still unknown regarding the effects of harvest on mountain lion population dynamics. Whether human hunting mortality on mountain lions is additive or compensatory is debated. Our primary objective was to investigate population effects of harvest on mountain lions. We addressed this objective with a management experiment of 3 years of intensive harvest followed by a 6-year recovery period. In December 2000, after 3 years of hunting, approximately 66% of a single game management unit within the Blackfoot River watershed in Montana was closed to lion hunting, effectively creating a refuge representing approximately 12% (915&thinsp;km 2 ) of the total study area (7,908&thinsp;km 2 ). Hunting continued in the remainder of the study area, but harvest levels declined from approximately 9/1,000&thinsp;km 2 in 2001 to 2/1,000&thinsp;km 2 in 2006 as a result of the protected area and reduced quotas outside. We radiocollared 117 mountain lions from 1998 to 2006. We recorded known fates for 63 animals, and right-censored the remainder. Although hunting directly reduced survival, parameters such as litter size, birth interval, maternity, age at dispersal, and age of first reproduction were not significantly affected. Sensitivity analysis showed that female survival and maternity were most influential on population growth. Life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) demonstrated the effect of hunting on the population dynamics of mountain lions. In our non-hunted population, reproduction (kitten survival and maternity) accounted for approximately 62% of the variation in growth rate, whereas adult female survival accounted for 30%. Hunting reversed this, increasing the reliance of population growth on adult female survival (45% of the variation in population growth), and away from reproduction (12%). Our research showed that harvest at the levels implemented in this study did not affect population productivity (i.e., maternity), but had an additive effect on mountain lion mortality, and therefore population growth. Through harvest, wildlife managers have the ability to control mountain lion populations.

Montana↗
USGS2013

Estimating occupancy and predicting numbers of gray wolf packs in Montana using hunter surveys

Reliable knowledge of the status and trend of carnivore populations is critical to their conservation and management. Methods for monitoring carnivores, however, are challenging to conduct across large spatial scales. In the Northern Rocky Mountains, wildlife managers need a time- and cost-efficient method for monitoring gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations. Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) conducts annual telephone surveys of >50,000 deer and elk hunters. We explored how survey data on hunters' sightings of wolves could be used to estimate the occupancy and distribution of wolf packs and predict their abundance in Montana for 2007&ndash;2009. We assessed model utility by comparing our predictions to MFWP minimum known number of wolf packs. We minimized false positive detections by identifying a patch as occupied if 2&ndash;25 wolves were detected by &ge;3 hunters. Overall, estimates of the occupancy and distribution of wolf packs were generally consistent with known distributions. Our predictions of the total area occupied increased from 2007 to 2009 and predicted numbers of wolf packs were approximately 1.34&ndash;1.46 times the MFWP minimum counts for each year of the survey. Our results indicate that multi-season occupancy models based on public sightings can be used to monitor populations and changes in the spatial distribution of territorial carnivores across large areas where alternative methods may be limited by personnel, time, accessibility, and budget constraints.

Montana↗
USGS2012

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

Montana↗