Geology topics

Justin A. Crawford

Publications and source records attributed to Justin A. Crawford.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Identifying indicators of polar bear population status

Monitoring trends in large mammal populations is a fundamental component of wildlife management and conservation. However, direct estimates of population size and vital rates of large mammals can be logistically challenging and expensive. Indicators that reflect trends in abundance, therefore, can be valuable tools for supporting population monitoring. Polar bears have a relatively simple life history such that a few key variables may be effective indicators for tracking changes in body condition and recruitment that affect abundance. Direct estimates of polar bear abundance are difficult to obtain due to their large home ranges in remote Arctic habitats. Changes in abundance associated with environmental conditions appear to affect polar bears largely via effects on female body condition which influence reproduction and cub survival (i.e., recruitment). Loss of sea ice habitat is further limiting researcher access for population monitoring creating a need for alternative approaches. Here we used relationships established from eight years (2008–2017) of data collected on 439 polar bears in the Chukchi Sea, to transform previously published individual-based relationships with annually available sea ice, atmospheric circulation, and prey body condition variables to predict annual mean body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022. Although annual sample sizes were limited for verifying predicted body condition and recruitment via techniques such as cross-validation, in most cases predicted annual means were closely correlated with observed means for 2008–2017. Summer sea ice and prey body condition remained within or increased relative to levels observed during 2008–2017 and predicted polar bear body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022 were largely within or above observed annual means during 2008–2017. A lack of trend in environmental and ecological variables or polar bear body condition and recruitment metrics during 2008–2022 is suggestive that the Chukchi Sea polar bear population was likely stable during this time. Our results provide support for developing models that predict important population parameters of large mammals based on environmental and ecological indicators. Given that trend information is lacking for 10 of the 19 recognized polar bear populations and is outdated for others, the use of environmental and ecological indicators may be particularly useful for augmenting direct estimates of polar bear vital rates in between periods of data collection. Although demographic assessments for polar bears have primarily focused on correlations with sea ice availability, our study and others highlight that prey health is also an important indicator of polar bear population status.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2023

Exploring effects of vessels on walrus behaviors using telemetry, automatic identification system data and matching

Arctic marine mammals have had little exposure to vessel traffic and potential associated disturbance, but sea ice loss has increased accessibility of Arctic waters to vessels. Vessel disturbance could influence marine mammal population dynamics by altering behavioral activity budgets that affect energy balance, which in turn can affect birth and death rates. As an initial step in studying these linkages, we conducted the first comprehensive analysis to evaluate the effects of vessel exposure on Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) behaviors. We obtained >120,000 h of location and behavior (foraging, in-water not foraging, and hauled out) data from 218 satellite-tagged walruses and linked them to vessel locations from the marine automatic identification system (AIS). This yielded 206 vessel-exposed walrus telemetry hours for comparison to unexposed hours, which we used to assess if vessel exposure altered walrus behavior. We developed a filter to account for misclassification of vessel exposure of telemetered walruses. Then we tested for an effect of vessel exposure on walrus behaviors using a combination of exact and propensity score-based matching to account for confounding covariates, and we conducted statistical power analyses. We did not detect an effect of vessel exposure on walrus behaviors even when statistical power was high (i.e., for foraging walruses), which may have been due to the sample size-driven need to define vessel presence within a larger than desired distance (15-km measured radius) around a walrus. Although this study did not determine at what distance vessel exposure affects walrus behaviors, it provided an upper bound on the distance at which the vessels encountered may disturb foraging walruses. When more situation-specific information is lacking, this distance could be used as a conservative buffer to maintain between vessels and areas of high use by foraging walruses. Studies on behavioral consequences of closer proximities between walruses and vessels are needed, and our assessments of misclassification rates and statistical power can be used for future studies. We demonstrated that analytical approaches such as matching, which are rarely used in wildlife studies, are particularly useful for testing hypotheses with observational data.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Marine mammal hotspots across the circumpolar Arctic

Aim Identify hotspots and areas of high species richness for Arctic marine mammals. Location Circumpolar Arctic. Methods A total of 2115 biologging devices were deployed on marine mammals from 13 species in the Arctic from 2005 to 2019. Getis-Ord G i * hotspots were calculated based on the number of individuals in grid cells for each species and for phylogenetic groups (nine pinnipeds, three cetaceans, all species) and areas with high species richness were identified for summer (Jun-Nov), winter (Dec-May) and the entire year. Seasonal habitat differences among species’ hotspots were investigated using Principal Component Analysis. Results Hotspots and areas with high species richness occurred within the Arctic continental-shelf seas and within the marginal ice zone, particularly in the “Arctic gateways” of the north Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Summer hotspots were generally found further north than winter hotspots, but there were exceptions to this pattern, including bowhead whales in the Greenland-Barents Seas and species with coastal distributions in Svalbard, Norway and East Greenland. Areas with high species richness generally overlapped high-density hotspots. Large regional and seasonal differences in habitat features of hotspots were found among species but also within species from different regions. Gap analysis (discrepancy between hotspots and IUCN ranges) identified species and regions where more research is required. Main conclusions This study identified important areas (and habitat types) for Arctic marine mammals using available biotelemetry data. The results herein serve as a benchmark to measure future distributional shifts. Expanded monitoring and telemetry studies are needed on Arctic species to understand the impacts of climate change and concomitant ecosystem changes (synergistic effects of multiple stressors). While efforts should be made to fill knowledge gaps, including regional gaps and more complete sex and age coverage, hotspots identified herein can inform management efforts to mitigate the impacts of human activities and ecological changes, including creation of protected areas.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2021

Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial‐temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential combined effects of sea ice, seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns on the body condition, recruitment, diet, and feeding probability of 469 polar bears captured in the Chukchi Sea, 2008‐2017. The body condition of ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ), the primary prey of females and subadults, was related to dietary proportions of ringed seal, feeding probability, and the body condition of females and cubs. In contrast, adult males consumed more bearded seals ( Erignathus barbatus ) and exhibited better condition when bearded seal body condition was higher. The litter size, number of yearlings per adult female, and the condition of dependent young were higher following winters characterized by low Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions, consistent with a growing number of studies. Body condition, recruitment, and feeding probability were either not associated or negatively associated with sea ice conditions, suggesting that, unlike some subpopulations, Chukchi Sea bears are not currently limited by sea ice availability. However, spring sea ice cover declined 2% per year during our study reaching levels not previously observed in the satellite record and resulting in the loss of polar bear hunting and seal pupping habitat. Our study suggests that the status of ice seal populations is likely an important factor that can either compound or mitigate the response of polar bears to sea ice loss over the short‐term. In the long‐term, neither polar bears nor their prey are likely robust to limitless loss of their sea ice habitat.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Ringed seal (Pusa hispida) seasonal movements, diving, and haul-out behavior in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas (2011–2017)

Continued Arctic warming and sea-ice loss will have important implications for the conservation of ringed seals, a highly ice-dependent species. A better understanding of their spatial ecology will help characterize emerging ecological trends and inform management decisions. We deployed satellite transmitters on ringed seals in the summers of 2011, 2014, and 2016 near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska to monitor their movements, diving, and haul-out behavior. We present analyses of tracking and dive data provided by 17 seals that were tracked until at least January of the following year. Seals mostly ranged north of Utqiaġvik in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas during summer before moving into the southern Chukchi and Bering Seas during winter. In all seasons, ringed seals occupied a diversity of habitats and spatial distributions; from near shore and localized, to far offshore and wide-ranging in drifting sea-ice. Continental shelf waters were occupied for >96% of tracking-days, during which repetitive-diving (suggestive of foraging) primarily to the seafloor was the most frequent activity. From mid-summer to early-fall, 12 seals made ~ one-week forays off-shelf to the deep Arctic Basin, most reaching the retreating pack-ice, where they spent most of their time hauled out. Diel activity patterns suggested greater allocation of foraging efforts to midday hours. Haul-out patterns were complementary, occurring mostly at night until April-May when midday hours were preferred. Ringed seals captured in 2011—concurrent with an unusual mortality event (UME) that affected all ice seal species—differed morphologically and behaviorally from seals captured in other years. Speculations about the physiology of molting and its role in energetics, habitat use, and behavior are discussed; along with possible evidence of purported ringed seal ecotypes.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

A multi-species synthesis of satellite telemetry data in the Pacific Arctic (1987–2015): Overlap of marine mammal distributions and core use areas

We collated available satellite telemetry data for six species of ice-associated marine mammals in the Pacific Arctic: ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ; n = 118), bearded seals( Erignathus barbatus, n = 51), spotted seals ( Phoca largha , n = 72), Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens, n = 389); bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus , n = 46), and five Arctic and sub-arctic stocks of beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas , n = 103). We also included one seasonal resident, eastern North Pacific gray whales ( Eschrichtius robustus , n = 12). This review summarized the distribution of daily locations from satellite-linked transmitters during two analysis periods, summer (May–November) and winter (December–April), and then examined the overlap among species. Six multi-species core use areas were identified during the summer period: 1) Chukotka/Bering Strait; 2) Norton Sound; 3) Kotzebue Sound; 4) the northeastern Chukchi Sea; 5) Mackenzie River Delta/Amundsen Gulf; and 6) Viscount Melville Sound. During the winter period, we identified four multi-species core use areas: 1) Anadyr Gulf/Strait; 2) central Bering Sea; 3) Nunivak Island; and 4) Bristol Bay. During the summer period, four of the six areas were centered on the greater Bering Strait region and the northwestern coast of Alaska and included most of the species we examined. The two remaining summer areas were in the western Canadian Arctic and were largely defined by the seasonal presence of Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort stock bowhead whales and Eastern Beaufort Sea stock beluga whales, whose distribution overlapped during both summer and winter periods. During the winter period, the main multi-species core use area was located near the Gulf of Anadyr and extended northwards through Anadyr and Bering Straits. This area is contained within the Bering Sea “green belt”, an area of enhanced primary and secondary productivity in the Bering Sea. We also described available telemetry data and where they can be found as of 2017. These data are important for understanding ice-associated marine mammal movements and habitat use in the Pacific Arctic and should be archived, with appropriate metadata, to ensure they are available for future retrospective analyses.

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗