Geology topics

Juniper Simonis

Publications and source records attributed to Juniper Simonis.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2018

GenEst statistical models—A generalized estimator of mortality

Introduction GenEst (a generalized estimator of mortality) is a suite of statistical models and software tools for generalized mortality estimation. It was specifically designed for estimating the number of bird and bat fatalities at solar and wind power facilities, but both the software (Dalthorp and others, 2018) and the underlying statistical models are general enough to be useful in various situations to estimate the size of open populations when detection probabilities and search coverages are less than 1. In this report, we outline the statistical models and data structures underlying the estimator. The models are numerous, complex, and intricately interwoven. Discussion begins with broad, high-level overviews of the general models. The lower-level technical details are then gradually added. Broader and less technical discussions on the general context and applications of the models and the use of the software are available in the software user guide (Simonis and others, 2018), vignettes bundled with the software, and the help files within the software itself.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2018

GenEst user guide—Software for a generalized estimator of mortality

GenEst (Generalized Estimator) is a software tool for estimating the total number of individuals arriving in an area during a specific time period when their detection probability is unknown but estimable. Its development was motivated by the need to accurately estimate the total number of bird and bat fatalities occurring at wind and solar energy facilities, but it is applicable in a variety of other contexts as well. Simple counts of carcasses are not an accurate measure of the true number of fatalities because some carcasses are inevitably missed in carcass searches. Furthermore, simple carcass counts do not allow comparison among locations or years because carcasses may be detected at different rates. This software uses data collected during carcass searches and estimates of detection rates to accurately estimate the number of fatalities and to provide a measure of precision associated with the estimate. These estimates are fundamental to understanding acute and cumulative effects of renewable energy development on wildlife populations. The software package is available with a user-friendly graphic interface as well as a flexible and powerful command-line implementation. GenEst includes tools for estimating searcher efficiency, carcass persistence, and other detection probability parameters from experimental field trials. Included in the software are example datasets for analyses, standard R package help files, this user guide, and vignettes detailing use at the command-line.

Techniques and Methods↗