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Julio L. Betancourt

Publications and source records attributed to Julio L. Betancourt.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Role of multidecadal climate variability in a range extension of pinyon pine

Evidence from woodrat middens and tree rings at Dutch John Mountain (DJM) in northeastern Utah reveal spatiotemporal patterns of pinyon pine ( Pinus edulis Engelm.) colonization and expansion in the past millennium. The DJM population, a northern outpost of pinyon, was established by long-distance dispersal (~40 km). Growth of this isolate was markedly episodic and tracked multidecadal variability in precipitation. Initial colonization occurred by AD 1246, but expansion was forestalled by catastrophic drought (1250–1288), which we speculate produced extensive mortality of Utah Juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma (Torr.) Little), the dominant tree at DJM for the previous ~8700 years. Pinyon then quickly replaced juniper across DJM during a few wet decades (1330–1339 and 1368–1377). Such alternating decadal-scale droughts and pluvial events play a key role in structuring plant communities at the landscape to regional level. These decadal-length precipitation anomalies tend to be regionally coherent and can synchronize physical and biological processes across large areas. Vegetation forecast models must incorporate these temporal and geographic aspects of climate variability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change.

Utah↗
USGS2006

Predicting woodrat ( Neotoma ) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2006

Classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid analyses of the distribution of ponderosa pine in the western USA

Aim? Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson & C. Lawson) is an economically and ecologically important conifer that has a wide geographic range in the western USA, but is mostly absent from the geographic centre of its distribution - the Great Basin and adjoining mountain ranges. Much of its modern range was achieved by migration of geographically distinct Sierra Nevada (P. ponderosa var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. ponderosa var. scopulorum) varieties in the last 10,000 years. Previous research has confirmed genetic differences between the two varieties, and measurable genetic exchange occurs where their ranges now overlap in western Montana. A variety of approaches in bioclimatic modelling is required to explore the ecological differences between these varieties and their implications for historical biogeography and impending changes in western landscapes. Location? Western USA. Methods? We used a classification tree analysis and a minimum-volume ellipsoid as models to explain the broad patterns of distribution of ponderosa pine in modern environments using climatic and edaphic variables. Most biogeographical modelling assumes that the target group represents a single, ecologically uniform taxonomic population. Classification tree analysis does not require this assumption because it allows the creation of pathways that predict multiple positive and negative outcomes. Thus, classification tree analysis can be used to test the ecological uniformity of the species. In addition, a multidimensional ellipsoid was constructed to describe the niche of each variety of ponderosa pine, and distances from the niche were calculated and mapped on a 4-km grid for each ecological variable. Results? The resulting classification tree identified three dominant pathways predicting ponderosa pine presence. Two of these three pathways correspond roughly to the distribution of var. ponderosa, and the third pathway generally corresponds to the distribution of var. scopulorum. The classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid model show that both varieties have very similar temperature limitations, although var. ponderosa is more limited by the temperature extremes of the continental interior. The precipitation limitations of the two varieties are seasonally different, with var. ponderosa requiring significant winter moisture and var. scopulorum requiring significant summer moisture. Great Basin mountain ranges are too cold at higher elevations to support either variety of ponderosa pine, and at lower elevations are too dry in summer for var. scopulorum and too dry in winter for var. ponderosa. Main conclusions? The classification tree analysis indicates that var. ponderosa is ecologically as well as genetically distinct from var. scopulorum. Ecological differences may maintain genetic separation in spite of a limited zone of introgression between the two varieties in western Montana. Two hypotheses about past and future movements of ponderosa pine emerge from our analyses. The first hypothesis is that, during the last glacial period, colder and/or drier summers truncated most of the range of var. scopulorum in the central Rockies, but had less dramatic effects on the more maritime and winter-wet distribution of var. ponderosa. The second hypothesis is that, all other factors held constant, increasing summer temperatures in the future should produce changes in the distribution of var. scopulorum that are likely to involve range expansions in the central Rockies with the warming of mountain ranges currently too cold but sufficiently wet in summer for var. scopulorum. Finally, our results underscore the growing need to focus on genotypes in biogeographical modelling and ecological forecasting.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2005

Pollen analyses from a 50 000-yr rodent midden series in the southern Atacama Desert (25° 30' S)

Precipitation in northern Chile is controlled by two great wind belts—the southern westerlies over the southern Atacama and points south (> 24° S) and the tropical easterlies over the northern and central Atacama Desert (16–24° S). At the intersection of these summer and winter rainfall regimes, respectively, is a Mars-like landscape consisting of expansive surfaces devoid of vegetation (i.e. absolute desert) except in canyons that originate high enough to experience runoff once every few years. Pollen assemblages from 39 fossil rodent middens in one of these canyons, Quebrada del Chaco (25° 30′ S), were used to infer the history of vegetation and precipitation at three elevations (2670–2800 m; 3100–3200 m; 3450–3500 m) over the past 50 000 years. When compared to modern conditions and fossil records to the north and south, the pollen evidence indicates more winter precipitation at > 52, 40–33, 24–17 k cal. yr BP, more precipitation in both seasons at 17–14 k cal. yr BP, and more summer precipitation from 14–11 k cal. yr BP. Younger middens are scarce at Quebrada del Chaco, and the few Holocene samples indicate hyperarid conditions comparable to today. The only exception is a pollen assemblage that indicates a brief but significant interlude of increased winter precipitation in the last millennium.

Atacama Desert↗
USGS2005

A 40,000-year woodrat-midden record of vegetational and biogeographical dynamics in north-eastern Utah

Aim A conspicuous climatic and biogeographical transition occurs at 40-45° N in western North America. This pivot point marks a north–south opposition of wet and dry conditions at interannual and decadal time-scales, as well as the northern and southern limits of many dominant western plant species. Palaeoecologists have yet to focus on past climatic and biotic shifts along this transition, in part because it requires comparisons across dissimilar records [i.e. pollen from lacustrine sediments to the north and plant macrofossils from woodrat ( Neotoma ) middens to the south]. To overcome these limitations, we are extending the woodrat-midden record northward into the lowlands of the central Rocky Mountains. Location Woodrat middens were collected from crevices and rock shelters on south-facing slopes of Dutch John Mountain (2000-2200 m, 40°57′ N, 109°25′ W), situated on the eastern flanks of the Uinta Mountains in north-eastern Utah. The site is near the regional limits for Pinus ponderosa, P. edulis, P. contorta, Cercocarpus ledifolius var. intricatus, Abies concolor, Ephedra viridis and other important western species. Methods We analysed pollen and plant macrofossils from the 40,000-year midden sequence. The middens represent brief, depositional episodes (mostly years to decades). Four middens represent the early to full-glacial period (40,000–18,000 cal-yr bp), eight middens are from the late-glacial/early Holocene transition (13,500–9000 cal yr bp), and 33 middens span the mid-to-late Holocene (last 7500 years). Temporal density of our Holocene middens (one every c. 210 years) is comparable with typical Holocene pollen sequences from lake sediments. Results Early to full-glacial assemblages are characterized by low diversity and occurrence of montane conifers ( Picea pungens, Pseudotsuga menziesii, P. flexilis, Juniperus communis ) absent from the site today. Diversity increases in the late-glacial samples with the addition of J. scopulorum, J. horizontalis, C. montanus, C. ledifolius var. intricatus and mesic understory species. The coniferous trees and J. communis declined and J. osteosperma appeared during the late-glacial/Holocene transition. Juniperus osteosperma populations have occupied the site throughout the Holocene. Pinus ponderosa was established by 7500 cal-yr bp, and has occurred at least locally ever since. Montane conifers and J. horizontalis persisted until c. 5500 cal-yr bp. The signature events of the late Holocene were the invasions of P. edulis and Ephedra viridis and establishment of pinyon–juniper woodland in the last 800 years. Main conclusions The Dutch John Mountain midden record adds to an emerging picture in which mid-elevation conifers ( P. flexilis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Picea pungens, J. scopulorum, J. communis ) dominated vegetation over a wide area of the Colorado Plateau and adjacent Rocky Mountains. Rather than being fragmented, as often assumed in phylogeographical studies, these species had broader and more-connected distributions than they do in the region today. Paradoxically, subalpine conifers ( Picea engelmannii, A. lasiocarpa ) occurred at higher elevations to the south, possibly representing declining precipitation from south to north owing to southward displacement of the polar jet stream. The Dutch John Mountain record displays a series of extinction and invasion events. Most of the extinctions were local in scale; nearly all constituents of fossil midden assemblages occur within a few kilometres of Dutch John Mountain, and some occur at least locally on its slopes. The sole exception is J. horizontalis , which is regionally extinct. In contrast to extinctions, Holocene invasions were regional in scale; J. osteosperma, P. ponderosa, P. edulis and Ephedra viridis immigrated from glacial-age source populations far to the south.

Utah↗
USGS2005

87Sr/86Sr sourcing of ponderosa pine used in Anasazi great house construction at Chaco Canyon, New Mexico

Previous analysis of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios shows that 10th through 12th century Chaco Canyon was provisioned with plant materials that came from more than 75 km away. This includes (1) corn (Zea mays) grown on the eastern flanks of the Chuska Mountains and floodplain of the San Juan River to the west and north, and (2) spruce (Picea sp.) and fir (Abies sp.) beams from the crest of the Chuska and San Mateo Mountains to the west and south. Here, we extend 87 Sr/ 86 Sr analysis to ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) prevalent in the architectural timber at three of the Chacoan great houses (Pueblo Bonito, Chetro Ketl, Pueblo del Arroyo). Like the architectural spruce and fir, much of the ponderosa matches the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios of living trees in the Chuska Mountains. Many of the architectural ponderosa, however, have similar ratios to living trees in the La Plata and San Juan Mountains to the north and Lobo Mesa/Hosta Butte to the south. There are no systematic patterns in spruce/fir or ponderosa provenance by great house or time, suggesting the use of stockpiles from a few preferred sources. The multiple and distant sources for food and timber, now based on hundreds of isotopic values from modern and archeological samples, confirm conventional wisdom about the geographic scope of the larger Chacoan system. The complexity of this procurement warns against simple generalizations based on just one species, a single class of botanical artifact, or a few isotopic values.

New Mexico↗
USGS2005

Late Quaternary history of the Atacama Desert

Of the major subtropical deserts found in the Southern Hemisphere, the Atacama Desert is the driest. Throughout the Quaternary, the most pervasive climatic influence on the desert has been millennial-scale changes in the frequency and seasonality of the scant rainfall, and associated shifts in plant and animal distributions with elevation along the eastern margin of the desert. Over the past six years, we have mapped modern vegetation gradients and developed a number of palaeoenvironmental records, including vegetation histories from fossil rodent middens, groundwater levels from wetland (spring) deposits, and lake levels from shoreline evidence, along a 1200-kilometre transect (16–26°S) in the Atacama Desert. A strength of this palaeoclimate transect has been the ability to apply the same methodologies across broad elevational, latitudinal, climatic, vegetation and hydrological gradients. We are using this transect to reconstruct the histories of key components of the South American tropical (summer) and extratropical (winter) rainfall belts, precisely at those elevations where average annual rainfall wanes to zero. The focus has been on the transition from sparse, shrubby vegetation (known as the prepuna) into absolute desert, an expansive hyperarid terrain that extends from just above the coastal fog zone (approximately 800 metres) to more than 3500 metres in the most arid sectors in the southern Atacama.

Atacama Desert↗
USGS2003

A vegetation history from the arid prepuna of northern Chile (22-23°S) over the last 13,500 years

The Quaternary paleoclimate of the central Andes is poorly understood due to numerous discrepancies among the diverse proxy records that span this geographically and climatically complex region. The exact timing, duration and magnitude of wet and dry phases are seldom duplicated from one proxy type to another, and there have been few opportunities to compare climatic records from the same proxy along environmental gradients. Vegetation histories from fossil rodent middens provide one such opportunity on the Pacific slope of the Andes. We previously reported a vegetation history from the upper margin (2400–3000 m) of the absolute desert in the central Atacama Desert of northern Chile. That record identified a distinct wet phase that peaked between 11.8 and 10.5 ka, when steppe grasses and other upland elements expanded as much as 1000 m downslope, and a secondary wet period during the middle to late Holocene (7.1–3.5 ka). The latter wet phase remains controversial and is not as readily apparent in our low-elevation midden record. We thus sought to replicate both phases in a midden record from the mid-elevations (3100–3300 m) of the arid prepuna, where slight precipitation increases would be amplified. Midden records from these elevations identify conditions wetter than today at 13.5–9.6, 7.6–6.3, 4.4–3.2 and possibly 1.8–1.2 ka. Dry phases occurred at 9.4–8.4 ka and possibly at ca. 5.1 ka. Present floras and modern hyperarid conditions were established after 3.2 ka. The records from the two elevational bands generally match with some important differences. These differences could reflect both the discontinuous aspect of the midden record and the episodic nature of precipitation and plant establishment in this hyperarid desert.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2002

Leaf δ 13 C variability with elevation, slope aspect, and precipitation in the southwest United States

Leaves from several desert and woodland species, including gymnosperms and angiosperms with both C 3 and C 4 physiology, were analyzed to detect trends in δ 13 C leaf with elevation and slope aspect along two transects in southeastern Utah and south-central New Mexico, USA. The main difference between the two transects is the steeper elevational gradient for mean annual and summer precipitation in the southern transect. For any given species, we found that isotopic differences between individual plants growing at the same site commonly equal differences measured for plants along the entire altitudinal gradient. In C 3 plants, δ 13 C leaf values become slightly enriched at the lowest elevations, the opposite of trends identified in more humid regions. Apparently, increasing water-use efficiency with drought stress offsets the influence of other biotic and abiotic factors that operate to decrease isotopic discrimination with elevation. For some species shared by the two transects (e.g., Pinus edulis and Cercocarpus montanus ), δ 13 C leaf values are dramatically depleted at sites that receive more than 550 mm mean annual precipitation, roughly the boundary (pedalfer-pedocal) at which soils commonly fill to field capacity in summer and carbonates are leached. We hypothesize that, in summer-wet areas, this may represent the boundary at which drought stress overtakes other factors in determining the sign of δ 13 C leaf with elevation. The opposition of isotopic trends with elevation in arid versus humid regions cautions against standard correction for elevation in comparative studies of δ 13 C leaf .

Oecologia↗
USGS2002

Ploidy race distributions since the Last Glacial Maximum in the North American desert shrub, Larrea tridentata

A classic biogeographic pattern is the alignment of diploid, tetraploid and hexaploid races of creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) across the Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mohave Deserts of western North America. We used statistically robust differences in guard cell size of modern plants and fossil leaves from packrat middens to map current and past distributions of these ploidy races since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Glacial/early Holocene (26–10 14 C kyr bp or thousands of radiocarbon years before present) populations included diploids along the lower Rio Grande of west Texas, 650 km removed from sympatric diploids and tetraploids in the lower Colorado River Basin of south-eastern California/south-western Arizona. Diploids migrated slowly from lower Rio Grande refugia with expansion into the northern Chihuahuan Desert sites forestalled until after ~4.0 14 C kyr bp . Tetraploids expanded from the lower Colorado River Basin into the northern limits of the Sonoran Desert in central Arizona by 6.4 14 C kyr bp . Hexaploids appeared by 8.5 14 C kyr bp in the lower Colorado River Basin, reaching their northernmost limits (~37°N) in the Mohave Desert between 5.6 and 3.9 14 C kyr bp . Modern diploid isolates may have resulted from both vicariant and dispersal events. In central Baja California and the lower Colorado River Basin, modern diploids probably originated from relict populations near glacial refugia. Founder events in the middle and late Holocene established diploid outposts on isolated limestone outcrops in areas of central and southern Arizona dominated by tetraploid populations. Geographic alignment of the three ploidy races along the modern gradient of increasingly drier and hotter summers is clearly a postglacial phenomenon, but evolution of both higher ploidy races must have happened before the Holocene. The exact timing and mechanism of polyploidy evolution in creosote bush remains a matter of conjecture.

Arizona, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Cal↗
USGS2002

Leaf cellulose δD and δ 18 O trends with elevation differ in direction among co-occurring, semiarid plant species

The potential to reconstruct paleoclimate from analyses of stable isotopes in fossil leaf cellulose could be enhanced by adequate calibration. This potential is likely to be particularly great in mid-latitude deserts, where a rich store of fossil leaves is available from rodent middens. Trends in ??D and ??18O of leaf cellulose were examined for three species growing across climatic gradients caused by elevation and slope aspect in southeastern Utah, USA. The species differed in morphology (Pinus edulis vs. Yucca glauca), photosynthetic pathway (C3 Y. glauca vs. CAM Yucca baccata) or both (P. edulis vs. Y. baccata). The ??DLCN (leaf cellulose nitrate) and ??18OLC (leaf cellulose) values of P. edulis decreased with elevation. Stem water ??D values either increased (in spring) or did not change with elevation (in summer). Needle water ??D values usually decreased with elevation and differed greatly with leaf age. These results suggest that ?? cellulose values of P. edulis record the effects of climate on the isotopic composition of leaf water but not climate effects on meteoric water. In contrast to P. edulis, ??DLCN values of Y. glauca increased with elevation. The ??18O LC values ofc Y. glauca also increased with elevation but less significantly and only on south-facing slopes. The ?? cellulose values in both P. edulis and Y. glauca were most significantly related to changes in temperature, although temperature and precipitation were negatively correlated in the study area. Where all three species co-occurred, their ??DLCN values differed but their ??18O LC values were the same. The disparity in ??DLCN between Y. baccata and the other species corresponds to differences in biochemical fractionations associated with photosynthetic pathway. Biochemical fractionations may also contribute to differences between the two C3 species. Knowledge of factors affecting responses of individual plant species to environment may be required to infer climate from ??DLCN and ??18OLC. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2000

The Amazon reveals its secrets--partly

The role of the tropics in global climate change during glacial cycles is hotly debated in paleoclimate cycles today. Records from South America have not provided a clear picture of tropical climate change. In his Perspective, Betancourt highlights the study by Maslin and Burns, who have deduced the outflow of the Amazon over the past 14,000 years. This may serve as a proxy that integrates hydrology over the entire South American tropics, although the record must be interpreted cautiously because factors other than rainfall may contribute to the variability in outflow.

Amazon River↗
USGS1998

Isotopes as indicators of environmental change

In addition to providing an understanding of processes within a catchment system, isotopic techniques have been instrumental in providing reconstructions of catchment climate and other environmental indicators at various time scales. Many recent changes are a direct consequence of anthropogenic activities. Isotopic analysis serves as a valuable tool for distinguishing between natural variations in long-term climatic patterns and anthropogenic effects, yielding improved understanding of natural feedback mechanisms and the development of realistic remediation strategies. This chapter discusses the examples of isotopic techniques that have been applied to understand several types of ongoing and recent environmental changes, and in paleo-environmental studies. It discusses isotope geochemistry, hydrology, and climatology to look at new ways of applying isotopic tracing techniques to provide information on environmental change. It also gives an overview on how isotopic indicators are being applied in investigations of environmental change in continental settings.

Book chapter↗
USGS1995

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report↗
USGS1992

Climatic variability and flood frequency of the Santa Cruz River, Pima County, Arizona

Past estimates of the 100-year flood for the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, range from 572 to 2,780 cubic meters per second. An apparent increase in flood magnitude during the past two decades raises concern that the annual flood series is nonstationary in time. The apparent increase is accompanied by more annual floods occurring in fall and winter and fewer in summer. This greater mixture of storm types that produce annual flood peaks is caused by a higher frequency of meridional flow in the upper-air circulation and increased variance of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Estimation of flood frequency on the Santa Cruz River is complicated because climate affects the magnitude and frequency of storms that cause floods. Mean discharge does not change significantly, but the variance and skew coefficient of the distribution of annual floods change with time. The 100-year flood during El Niffo-Southern Oscillation conditions is 1,300 cubic meters per second, more than double the value for other years. The increase is mostly caused by an increase in recurvature of dissipating tropical cyclones into the Southwestern United States during El Niffo-Southern Oscillation conditions. Flood frequency based on hydroclimatology was determined by combining populations of floods caused by monsoonal storms, frontal systems, and dissipating tropical cyclones. For 1930-59, annual flood frequency is dominated by monsoonal floods, and the estimated 100-year flood is 323 cubic meters per second. For 1960-86, annual flood frequency at recurrence intervals of greater than 10 years is dominated by floods caused by dissipating tropical cyclones, and the estimated 100-year flood is 1,660 cubic meters per second. For design purposes, 1,660 cubic meters per second might be an appropriate value for the 100-year flood at Tucson, assuming that climatic conditions during 1960-86 are representative of conditions expected in the immediate future.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS1991

Fossil and genetic history of a pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) isolate

The most isolated northern stand of Colorado pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) at Owl Canyon, Colorado, USA has a broad and flat size class distribution common to population expansions, with the largest and oldest trees near the center of the grove. Analyses of fossil packrat (Neotoma sp.) middens within the grove indicate that the stand originated by long—distance dispersal rather than by vicariance, a distinction seldom possible because of the unknown or incomplete histories of such isolated populations. Our 5000—yr pollen and macrofossil record suggests that pinyon pine colonized the site sometime between 1290 and 420 yr BP, the latter age corresponding to the oldest tree in the stand. Electrophoretic data from living trees show that this colonization was not attended by typical founder effects predicted by theory or observed for other known founder events. Despite its isolation, recent founding, and probable long—distance origin, the Owl Canyon stand has not suffered significant losses in genetic variation relative to likely source populations. Large initial population size, multiple founding events, rapid population growth, or selection favoring heterozygous genotypes could all explain the high heterozygosity and only slightly reduced polymorphism and number of alleles per locus found in the Owl Canyon stand. These results demonstrate the genetic complexity of founder events and the utility of blending complementary approaches such as paleoecology and genetics to better understand the population biology of peripheral isolates.

Ecology↗