Geology topics

Joshua L. Dooley

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua L. Dooley.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Evaluating harvest liberalization strategies on population dynamics of southern latitude temperate-breeding Canada geese

The recovery of the Canada goose ( Branta canadensis ) is one of North America's greatest conservation success stories. Today, continental abundance of temperate-breeding Canada geese (those breeding in southern Canada and lower 48 states in the United States) greatly exceeds historical levels. As a result of increased abundance, human–goose conflicts have also increased, ranging from private and agricultural property damage to human health concerns. Managers have primarily attempted to lower Canada goose populations using hunter harvest via liberalized hunting regulations (increased bag limits and total hunting days). To evaluate the effectiveness of harvest strategies for temperate-breeding Canada geese, managers need a better understanding of how liberalized hunting regulations affect population dynamics. We estimated survival and harvest probabilities, abundance, and recovery distribution of temperate-breeding Canada geese banded in Arkansas, USA, during 2005–2020. We found that adult harvest probabilities declined overall during the study and adult survival probabilities increased. Annual abundances of juvenile geese (≤1 year old) declined during the study, whereas there was no detectable trend in abundance of the adult population over time. Most Canada geese breeding in Arkansas were shot in Arkansas, indicating potential for population dynamics to be influenced largely by state-specific harvest regulations. However, our results suggest that harvest liberalization as a management tool may have limited capacity to further influence population dynamics of Canada geese. Declines in productivity and recruitment likely had a greater influence on the similar observed declines in juvenile and adult abundances, respectively, during our study. More research is needed to better understand the ecological mechanism affecting the population dynamics of Canada geese in both urban and rural environments.

Arkansas↗

USGS2025

Spring weather influences breeding propensity, the most important productivity component for Arctic-nesting lesser snow geese

Animal reproduction is composed of several stages, which collectively determine overall productivity. Yet, it is not fully understood how different productivity components contribute to population change. To bridge this gap, we leveraged integrated population modelling and transient life-table response experiments, together with population-level data on lesser snow geese ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ) breeding on Wrangel Island, Russia, from 1970 to 2022. We assessed contributions of breeding propensity, clutch size, nest success, egg survival, hatching success and pre-fledging survival to population change, and tested hypotheses about the effects of environmental drivers and density dependence on different components. Breeding propensity contributed the most to variation in population growth, followed by nest success. These two components were negatively affected by the timing of snow melt. We found no overall deleterious effects of climate change on productivity. Density dependence had a positive effect on multiple productivity components, likely through predator swamping. Our results show the importance of breeding propensity to the population dynamics of this long-lived animal, which is notable because this productivity component is often overlooked. Our results also demonstrate that the effects of environmental conditions and density dependence can differ among animal populations of different sizes, locations and life histories.

Wrangel Island↗

USGS2025

Environmental drivers of productivity explain population patterns of an Arctic-nesting goose across a half-century

Joint estimation of demographic rates and population size has become an essential tool in ecology because it enables evaluating mechanisms for population change and testing hypotheses about drivers of demography in a single modeling framework. This approach provides a comprehensive perspective on population dynamics and how animal populations will respond to global pressures in future years. However, long-term data for such analyses are often limited in quantity and quality. We developed an integrated population model combining data on demography and population size from nine different sources to understand the population ecology of the lesser snow goose ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ) in the Pacific Flyway in North America from 1970 to 2022. We divided the flyway population into Wrangel Island and Western Arctic subpopulations and assessed demographic mechanisms for population change and environmental and anthropogenic drivers that influenced demography. During 1970–2022, the estimated spring population of snow geese in the Pacific Flyway increased from ~300,000 to ~2,300,000. Short-term changes in population growth rate were primarily driven by changes in productivity in the Western Arctic and productivity and immigration in Wrangel Island. Changes in hunting and natural mortality had less influence on short-term but likely contributed to the pronounced long-term population growth. Early snowmelt positively influenced per capita productivity in both regions, and warm, rainy weather during the non-breeding season was associated with high per capita productivity in the Western Arctic. In the Western Arctic, per capita productivity was negatively associated with population size, and adult natural mortality was positively associated with population size, indicating density-dependent regulation in this subpopulation. In Wrangel Island, warm weather in early fall decreased juvenile natural mortality. Our results demonstrate that per capita productivity and immigration, rather than adult survival, were the primary mechanisms of short-term population change in this long-lived species. Our results also indicate that environmental conditions and density-dependent effects can impact population dynamics more than harvest, even for a long-lived, commonly harvested species. We demonstrate that a warming climate can have multiple effects on demography, emphasizing the importance of assessing a variety of spatial and temporal factors when predicting how populations might respond to large-scale environmental changes. This emphasizes the importance of conservation plans that consider these environmental drivers, although this may complicate direct management of such populations.

Ecological Applications↗