Geology topics

Jonathan S. Lefcheck

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan S. Lefcheck.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Climate change is reshaping seagrass futures: Novel environments and opportunities along coastlines and across oceans

Seagrasses are a highly productive ecosystem that supports biodiversity and fisheries, protects coastlines, and buries globally significant carbon stocks. Because seagrasses are increasingly stressed by warmer, darker, and more variable waters, established management strategies may not guarantee future success. Here, we depict a global outlook for seagrass futures by synthesizing how climate and non-climate human pressures may restructure meadow composition, food webs, fisheries, and blue carbon services. Current seagrass range shifts, adaptations, and acclimations to novel environmental conditions preview future states: climate-tolerant species often become dominant post-disturbance, seeds can disperse hundreds of kilometers, and local management can facilitate habitat persistence and large-scale restoration. To boost climate resilience, we propose a three-part framework involving (1) expanding seagrass mariculture and planting, (2) detecting and predicting shifting stressor gradients and species distributions, and (3) managing for seagrasses tolerant of novel environments. Together, these strategies offer proactive pathways for cultivating climate-adapted seagrass meadows worldwide.

BioScience↗

USGS2022

Data synthesis for environmental management: A case study of Chesapeake Bay

Synthesizing large, complex data sets to inform resource managers towards effective environmental stewardship is a universal challenge. In Chesapeake Bay, a well-studied and intensively monitored estuary in North America, the challenge of synthesizing data on water quality and land use as factors related to a key habitat, submerged aquatic vegetation, was tackled by a team of scientists and resource managers operating at multiple levels of governance (state, federal). The synthesis effort took place over a two-year period (2016–2018), and the results were communicated widely to a) scientists via peer review publications and conference presentations; b) resource managers via web materials and workshop presentations; and c) the public through newspaper articles, radio interviews, and podcasts. The synthesis effort was initiated by resource managers at the United States Environmental Protection Agencys’ Chesapeake Bay Program and 16 scientist participants were recruited from a diversity of organizations. Multiple short, immersive workshops were conducted regularly to conceptualize the problem, followed by data analysis and interpretation that supported the preparation of the synthetic products that were communicated widely. Reflections on the process indicate that there are a variety of structural and functional requirements, as well as enabling conditions, that need to be considered to achieve successful outcomes from synthesis efforts.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2020

Keystone predators govern the pathway and pace of climate impacts in a subarctic marine ecosystem

Predator loss and climate change are hallmarks of the Anthropocene yet their interactive effects are largely unknown. Here, we show that massive calcareous reefs, built slowly by the alga Clathromorphum nereostratum over centuries to millennia, are now declining because of the emerging interplay between these two processes. Such reefs, the structural base of Aleutian kelp forests, are rapidly eroding because of overgrazing by herbivores. Historical reconstructions and experiments reveal that overgrazing was initiated by the loss of sea otters, Enhydra lutris (which gave rise to herbivores capable of causing bioerosion), and then accelerated with ocean warming and acidification (which increased per capita lethal grazing by 34 to 60% compared with preindustrial times). Thus, keystone predators can mediate the ways in which climate effects emerge in nature and the pace with which they alter ecosystems.

Science↗

USGS2019

Long-term annual aerial surveys of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) support science, management, and restoration

Aerial surveys of coastal habitats can uniquely inform the science and management of shallow, coastal zones, and when repeated annually, they reveal changes that are otherwise difficult to assess from ground-based surveys. This paper reviews the utility of a long-term (1984-present) annual aerial monitoring program for submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, its tidal tributaries, and nearby Atlantic coastal bays, USA. We present a series of applications that highlight the program’s importance in assessing anthropogenic impacts, gauging water quality status and trends, establishing and evaluating restoration goals, and understanding the impact of commercial fishing practices on benthic habitats. These examples demonstrate how periodically quantifying coverage of this important foundational habitat answers basic research questions locally as well as globally, and provides essential information to resource managers. New technologies are enabling more frequent and accurate aerial surveys at greater spatial resolution and lower cost. These advances will support efforts to extend the applications described here to similar issues in other areas

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2018

Quantifying relative importance: Computing standardized effects in models with binary outcomes

Scientists commonly ask questions about the relative importances of processes, and then turn to statistical models for answers. Standardized coefficients are typically used in such situations, with the goal being to compare effects on a common scale. Traditional approaches to obtaining standardized coefficients were developed with idealized Gaussian variables in mind. When responses are binary, complications arise that impact standardization methods. In this paper, we review, evaluate, and propose new methods for standardizing coefficients from models that contain binary outcomes. We first consider the interpretability of unstandardized coefficients and then examine two main approaches to standardization. One approach, which we refer to as the Latent-Theoretical or LT method, assumes that underlying binary observations there exists a latent, continuous propensity linearly related to the coefficients. A second approach, which we refer to as the Observed-Empirical or OE method, assumes responses are purely discrete and estimates error variance empirically via reference to a classical R2 estimator. We also evaluate the standard formula for calculating standardized coefficients based on standard deviations. Criticisms of this practice have been persistent, leading us to propose an alternative formula that is based on user-defined “relevant ranges”. Finally, we implement all of the above in an open-source package for the statistical software R. Results from simulation studies show that both the LT and OE methods of standardization support a similarly-broad range of coefficient comparisons. The LT method estimates effects that reflect underlying latent-linear propensities, while the OE method computes a linear approximation for the effects of predictors on binary responses. The contrast between assumptions for the two methods is reflected in persistently weaker standardized effects associated with OE standardization. Reliance on standard deviations for standardization (the traditional approach) is critically examined and shown to introduce substantial biases when predictors are non-Gaussian. The use of relevant ranges in place of standard deviations has the capacity to place LT and OE standardized coefficients on a more comparable scale. As ecologists address increasingly complex hypotheses, especially those that involve comparing the influences of different controlling factors (e.g., top-down versus bottom-up or biotic versus abiotic controls), comparable coefficients become a necessary component for evaluations.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2018

Long-term nutrient reductions lead to the unprecedented recovery of a temperate coastal region

Human actions, including nutrient pollution, are causing the widespread degradation of coastal habitats, and efforts to restore these valuable ecosystems have been largely unsuccessful or of limited scope. We provide an example of successful restoration linking effective management of nutrients to the successful recovery of submersed aquatic vegetation along thousands of kilometers of coastline in Chesapeake Bay, United States. We also show that biodiversity conservation can be an effective path toward recovery of coastal systems. Our study validates 30 years of environmental policy and provides a road map for future ecological restoration.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗