Geology topics

Jonathan D. Reichard

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan D. Reichard.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Multi-scale predictors of Northern Long-eared Bat (Myotis septentrionalis) occupancy in the United States

Historically, Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long eared Bat) was among the most common forest-interior species in North America. Largely due to high mortality from white-nose syndrome, this species has experienced severe population declines across its range. To create an updated species distribution map representing summer occupancy probabilities from 2017 to 2022, we integrated stationary acoustic data with live-capture data from the database of the North American Bat Monitoring Program into a multi-scale, multi-method occupancy modeling framework. Our results provide data-driven predictions with quantified uncertainty for summer occupancy probabilities for Northern Long-eared Bats at 2 spatial scales across the range of the species, while also accounting for inherent observation biases (e.g., imperfect detection).

Journal of North American Bat Research↗

USGS2025

Summer roost site suitability analyses for 4 special status bat species in the Eastern United States

Data describing habitat suitability are crucial for implementing effective conservation planning but are often lacking at regional and continental scales. We address this gap for 4 bat species that are listed, proposed for listing, or under Endangered Species Act listing review by highlighting a framework for estimating summer roost suitability with a presence-background approach to aid development of conservation policy and management plans. The 4 species of concern are the Little Brown Bat ( Myotis lucifugus ), the Northern Long-eared Bat ( M. septentrionalis ), the Indiana Bat ( M. sodalis ), and the Tricolored Bat ( Perimyotis subflavus ). Our estimates of summer roost suitability were developed for the eastern United States at a fine spatial resolution (250 m pixels) suitable for conservation planning across multiple scales. Summer roost habitat suitability was higher in areas with higher tree canopy cover for each of these species, though subtle differences were observed between the species that often use buildings (e.g., Little Brown Bat), tree crevices, cavities, and elements of dead or dying trees (e.g., Northern Long-eared Bat and Indiana Bat), and foliage (e.g., Tricolored Bat). To this end, roost suitability was not identical among species, and each showed subtly different relationships to the environmental covariates considered here. We also use a novel approach, gradient surface metrics, to quantify differences in the spatial pattern of summer roost suitability among the 4 species and found that tricolored bats and northern long-eared bats showed the most homogeneous and spatially smooth habitat suitability surfaces. Estimates of summer roost suitability developed here were also used to identify areas of good summer habitat where our models showed the least uncertainty that may be beneficial for targeted conservation, such as limiting disturbance to potential roost habitat. We also identified areas where additional data would benefit future summer roost modeling efforts. This work provides a first step toward developing multistate inventories of summer roost habitat suitable for implementing effective conservation planning at multiple scales.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2025

Integrated distribution modeling resolves asynchrony between bat population impacts and occupancy trends through latent abundance

Monitoring populations is challenging for cryptic species with seasonal life cycles, where data from multiple field techniques are commonly collected and analyzed as multiple lines of evidence. Data integration can provide comprehensive inferences while improving accuracy, precision, and scope but faces challenges in modeling misaligned resolutions and observational uncertainties. We developed a multi-scale, integrated species distribution model (MS-iSDM) for North American bats to combine data across monitoring types and seasons using joint likelihood methods, observational models with false-negatives and false-positives, and seasonal migratory connectivity. We applied this model to 11 years of data for an imperiled bat species (tricolored bat, Perimyotis subflavus ). Relative abundance and occupancy were linked with multi-scale predictors, revealing clear patterns of population declines, but with important differences in spatial trends (abundance: corresponded with white-nose syndrome impacts, occupancy: at the range periphery) and overall severity (abundance: -74.8%, 95% CRI: -79.7% to -69.3%; occupancy: -35.5%, 95% CRI: -41.1% to -30.2%). The asynchrony between occupancy trends and population impacts was explained as an emergent pattern of spatiotemporal variation in abundance in the integrated distribution model. Compared to multiple lines of evidence, the integrated model provided consensus-estimates, increased precision and spatiotemporal scope, and strengthened evidence of population declines.

Communications Biology↗

USGS2024

The state of the bats in North America

The world's rich diversity of bats supports healthy ecosystems and important ecosystem services. Maintaining healthy biological systems requires prompt identification of threats to biodiversity and immediate action to protect species, which for wide-ranging bat species that span geopolitical boundaries warrants international coordination. Anthropogenic forces drive the threats to bats throughout North America and the world. We conducted an international expert elicitation to assess the status of 153 bat species in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We used expert assessment to determine the conservation status, highest impact threats, and recent population trends for these species. We found that 53% of North American bat species have moderate to very high risk of extinction in the next 15 years. The highest impact threats varied with species and country, and four IUCN threat categories had the greatest overall impacts: Climate Change, Problematic Species (including disease), Agriculture, and Energy Production. Experts estimated that 90% of species assessed had decreasing population trends over the past 15 years, demonstrating the need for conservation action. Although the state of North American bats is concerning, we identify threats that can be addressed through internationally collaborative, proactive, and protective actions to support the recovery and resilience of North American bat species.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2024

Using mobile acoustic monitoring and false-positive N-mixture models to estimate bat abundance and population trends

Estimating the abundance of unmarked animal populations from acoustic data is challenging due to the inability to identify individuals and the need to adjust for observation biases including detectability (false negatives), species misclassification (false positives), and sampling exposure. Acoustic surveys conducted along mobile transects were designed to avoid counting individuals more than once, where raw counts are commonly treated as an index of abundance. More recently, false-positive abundance models have been developed to estimate abundance while accounting for imperfect detection and misclassification. We adapted these methods to model summertime abundance and trends of three species of bats at multiple spatial scales using acoustic recordings collected along mobile transects by partners of the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) from 2012 to 2020. This multiscale modeling spanned individual transect routes, larger NABat grid cells (10 km × 10 km), and across the entire extent of modeled species ranges. We estimated relationships between species abundances and a suite of abiotic and biotic predictors (landcover types, climatological variables, physiographic diversity, building density, and the impacts of white-nose syndrome [WNS]) and found varying levels of support between species. We present clear evidence of substantial declines in populations of tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) and little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ), declines that corresponded in space and time with the progression of WNS, a devastating disease of hibernating bats. In contrast, our analysis revealed that similar population-wide declines probably have not occurred in big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ), a species known to be less affected by WNS. This study provides the first abundance-based species distribution predictions and population trends for bats in their summer ranges in North America. These models will probably be applicable to assessing wildlife populations in other monitoring programs where acoustic data are used or where false-negative and false-positive detections are present. Finally, our abundance framework (as a spatial point pattern process) can serve as a foundation from which more sophisticated integrated species distribution models that incorporate additional streams of monitoring data (e.g., stationary acoustics, captures) can be developed for North American bats.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2022

Status and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019

• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends of bat populations. • We analyzed data from a total of 12 bat species (Table 1), 11 of which have tested positive for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), a fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS)—a disease that has led to significant rates of mortality for subterranean hibernating bat species in North America. A twelfth species was also selected because of high rates of mortality at wind energy facilities. Additional species were considered but not selected due to data limitations. • We estimated occupancy probabilities for 2010 through 2019 for three species ( Myotis lucifugus , MYLU; Myotis septentrionalis , MYSE; and P erimyotis subflavus , PESU). For an additional nine species, we estimated occupancy probabilities for 2016 through 2019 ( Myotis evotis , MYEV; Myotis grisescens , MYGR; Myotis leibii , MYLE; Myotis thysanodes , MYTH; Myotis volans , MYVO; Myotis yumanensis , MYYU; Eptesicus fuscus , EPFU; Lasionycteris noctivagans , LANO; and Lasiurus cinereus , LACI). • For each species, we provide range-wide occupancy probability predictions (e.g., predicted summer occupancy distribution maps) each year at a spatial resolution of 100 km2 and provide regional estimates of mean occupancy probability aggregated at larger spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide). • For each species, we also provide trends over time (average annual change rate and total change rate) in mean occupancy probabilities at multiple spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide) and when possible, over multiple timescales (short, medium, long). • Results suggest that over the short-term (2016-2019), two ( Myotis lucifugus and Perimyotis subflavus ) of 12 species have experienced declines in range-wide average occupancy probability with at least 95% certainty. Seven species showed either minor increases or decreases in range-wide average occupancy probability but with less than 95% certainty in both trend indicators. Results over the longer term (eight years and 10 years of sampling) suggest that three hibernating species known to be highly affected by white-nose syndrome ( Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus ) have experienced marked declines in range-wide average occupancy probabilities, with severity varying by species and region. Finally, the results for three species ( Eptesicus fuscus , Lasiurus cinereus , Lasionycteris noctivagans ) were inconclusive due to 1) borderline convergence issues in the model fitting procedure which suggests potentially unreliable estimates, 2) failure to reliably distinguish between false positives and true positive detections for ambiguous detections, and 3) largely uninformative covariates for occupancy and detection. • For Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus we found meaningful associations in space and time between declining winter populations (likely a result of WNS) and summer occupancy distributions. • The representativeness of sampling data for each species’ status and trend estimates (e.g., state/province/territory) were also evaluated based on the percent of grid cells sampled each year with a goal of understanding the reliability of regional estimates and improving future monitoring efforts. • This work represents the most comprehensive effort to date to model North American bat distributions across their continental ranges. Despite current limitations highlighted in the discussion, the analytical methods and resulting status and trends estimates provide the best available science on summer bat populations across North America and will continue to improve over time as monitoring data sets and analytical methods improve. • Moving forward, our occupancy analyses will continue to improve with submission of more 1) data from currently underrepresented areas (i.e., improved geographic representation), 2) manually-vetted acoustic recordings, 3) capture records, and 4) roost location and count data (summer and winter).

Report↗

USGS2021

The scope and severity of white-nose syndrome on hibernating bats in North America

Assessing the scope and severity of threats is necessary for evaluating impacts on populations to inform conservation planning. Quantitative threat assessment often requires monitoring programs that provide reliable data over relevant spatial and temporal scales, yet such programs can be difficult to justify until there is an apparent stressor. Leveraging efforts of wildlife management agencies to record winter counts of hibernating bats, we collated data for 5 species from over 200 sites across 27 U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces from 1995 to 2018 to determine the impact of white-nose syndrome (WNS), a deadly disease of hibernating bats. We estimated declines of winter counts of bat colonies at sites where the invasive fungus that causes WNS ( Pseudogymnoascus destructans ) had been detected to assess the threat impact of WNS. Three species undergoing species status assessment by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ( Myotis septentrionalis , Myotis lucifugus , and Perimyotis subflavus ) declined by more than 90%, which warrants classifying the severity of the WNS threat as extreme based on criteria used by NatureServe. The scope of the WNS threat as defined by NatureServe criteria was large (36% of Myotis lucifugus range) to pervasive (79% of Myotis septentrionalis range) for these species. Declines for 2 other species ( Myotis sodalis and Eptesicus fuscus ) were less severe but still qualified as moderate to serious based on NatureServe criteria. Data-sharing across jurisdictions provided a comprehensive evaluation of scope and severity of the threat of WNS and indicated regional differences that can inform response efforts at international, national, and state or provincial jurisdictions. We assessed the threat impact of an emerging infectious disease by uniting monitoring efforts across jurisdictional boundaries and demonstrated the importance of coordinated monitoring programs, such as the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), for data-driven conservation assessments and planning.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2021

NABat: A top-down, bottom-up solution to collaborative continental-scale monitoring

Collaborative monitoring over broad scales and levels of ecological organization can inform conservation efforts necessary to address the contemporary biodiversity crisis. An important challenge to collaborative monitoring is motivating local engagement with enough buy-in from stakeholders while providing adequate top-down direction for scientific rigor, quality control, and coordination. Collaborative monitoring must reconcile this inherent tension between top-down control and bottom-up engagement. Highly mobile and cryptic taxa, such as bats, present a particularly acute challenge. Given their scale of movement, complex life histories, and rapidly expanding threats, understanding population trends of bats requires coordinated broad-scale collaborative monitoring. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) reconciles top-down, bottom-up tension with a hierarchical master sample survey design, integrated data analysis, dynamic data curation, regional monitoring hubs, and knowledge delivery through web-based infrastructure. NABat supports collaborative monitoring across spatial and organizational scales and the full annual lifecycle of bats.

Ambio↗

USGS2020

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

PLoS Pathogens↗

USGS2020

Assessing the risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 in and via North American bats — Decision framing and rapid risk assessment

The novel β-coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, may pose a threat to North American bat populations if bats are exposed to the virus through interaction with humans, if the virus can subsequently infect bats and be transmitted among them, and if the virus causes morbidity or mortality in bats. Further, if SARS-CoV-2 became established in bat populations, it could possibly serve as a source for new infection in humans, domesticated animals, or other wild animals. Wildlife management agencies in the United States are concerned about these potential risks and have begun to issue guidance regarding work that brings humans into contact with bats, but decision making is difficult because of the high degree of uncertainty about many of the relevant processes that could lead to virus transmission and establishment. The risk assessment described in this report was undertaken to provide management agencies with an understanding of the likelihood that the various steps in the causal pathways would lead to SARS-CoV-2 infection of North American bats from people. This assessment focused on the active season for bats in the temperate zone of North America (April 15 through November 15), and used Myotis lucifugus (little brown bats) as a surrogate species. At the time of this work (April 2020), no empirical data about the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on North American bats were available, so a formal process of expert judgment was used to elicit estimates of the underlying parameters. Twelve experts in bat ecology, epidemiology, virology, and wildlife disease from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia participated in the elicitation. A Monte Carlo simulation model was used to integrate the parameter estimates elicited from the experts and to predict the likelihood of exposure and infection in bats through a series of transmission pathways, with particular attention to capturing uncertainty in the predictions. Given the current state of knowledge as expressed by the expert panel, the results of this assessment indicate that there is a non-negligible risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to bats. For example, if a research scientist were shedding SARS-CoV-2 virus while handling bats under the field protocols used in North America prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the risk model indicates that 50 percent (uncertainty, 15–84 percent) of those bats could be exposed to virus, and 17 percent (uncertainty, 3–51 percent) could become infected. Use of personal protective equipment, especially a respirator, is expected to reduce the exposure risk. The expert panel estimated that exposure risk from research scientists could be reduced 94–96 percent (uncertainty, 86–99 percent) through proper use of appropriate N95 respirators (a type of mechanical filter worn over the nose and mouth), dedicated clothing (such as Tyvek coveralls), and gloves. Should any North American bats become infected with SARS-CoV-2, the expert panel estimated that there is an approximately 33-percent chance the virus could spread within a bat population. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, identified several critical uncertainties that could affect the estimate of risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 entering bat populations—notably, the underlying probability that a human would be shedding virus while working with bats, the likelihood of the virus replicating in bat tissue, and the likelihood of transmission of the virus within bat populations. Ongoing empirical work during May–October 2020 may shed light on these issues. Follow-up work is needed to better understand the probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to bats from the general public; the manner in which the probabilities of exposure, infection, and transmission would differ during hibernation compared to the breeding season; and the likelihood of important effects, like morbidity and mortality in bats, the possibility of zoonosis from a North American bat reservoir, and effects of and on other wildlife.

North America↗

USGS2020

Identifying research needs to inform white-nose syndrome management decisions

Ecological understanding of host–pathogen dynamics is the basis for managing wildlife diseases. Since 2008, federal, state, and provincial agencies and tribal and private organizations have collaborated on bat and white‐nose syndrome (WNS) surveillance and monitoring, research, and management programs. Accordingly, scientists and managers have learned a lot about the hosts, pathogen, and dynamics of WNS. However, effective mitigation measures to combat WNS remain elusive. Host–pathogen systems are complex, and identifying ecological research priorities to improve management, choosing among various actions, and deciding when to implement those actions can be challenging. Through a cross‐disciplinary approach, a group of diverse subject matter experts created an influence diagram used to identify uncertainties and prioritize research needs for WNS management. Critical knowledge gaps were identified, particularly with respect to how WNS dynamics and impacts may differ among bat species. We highlight critical uncertainties and identify targets for WNS research. This tool can be used to maximize the likelihood of achieving bat conservation goals within the context and limitations of specific real‐world scenarios.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2019

Different management strategies are optimal for combating disease in East Texas cave versus culvert hibernating bat populations

Management decisions for species impacted by emerging infectious diseases are challenging when there are uncertainties in the effectiveness of management actions. Wildlife managers must balance trade‐offs between mitigating the effects of the disease and the associated consequences on other aspects of the managed system. An example of this challenge is exemplified in the response to white‐nose syndrome (WNS), a disease of hibernating bats. The fungal pathogen that causes WNS, Pseudogymnoascus destructans , continues to spread throughout North America. Texas, recently confirmed positive for the fungus, has documented 33 bat species in the state, with nearly half of those species naïve to the pathogen. We explicitly incorporated multiple management objectives, uncertainty, and risk in the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department decision to manage East Texas populations of the tri‐colored bat ( Perimyotis subflavus ), a species highly susceptible to WNS. Alternatives included individual actions that act against P . destructans or benefit bats, a no active management option, and combinations of actions. Although our main objective was to identify WNS mitigation measures for tri‐colored bats in culverts, we also considered the transferability of the decision for natural caves. In this scenario, the optimal decision differed for culverts and caves, with a “portfolio” combination of actions ranking as the best alternative for culverts and a single vaccine alternative for caves. Because the top management alternatives differed markedly between these two systems, finding treatments that have broad application is likely infeasible, given that each management decision is characterized by different mixtures of competing objectives.

Texas↗

USGS2015

A plan for the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat)

The purpose of the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) is to create a continent-wide program to monitor bats at local to rangewide scales that will provide reliable data to promote effective conservation decisionmaking and the long-term viability of bat populations across the continent. This is an international, multiagency program. Four approaches will be used to gather monitoring data to assess changes in bat distributions and abundances: winter hibernaculum counts, maternity colony counts, mobile acoustic surveys along road transects, and acoustic surveys at stationary points. These monitoring approaches are described along with methods for identifying species recorded by acoustic detectors. Other chapters describe the sampling design, the database management system (Bat Population Database), and statistical approaches that can be used to analyze data collected through this program.

Report↗