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Jonathan Bart

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Bart.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2013

Importance of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for aquatic birds

We used data from aerial surveys (1992–2010) of >100,000 km 2 and ground surveys (1998–2004) of >150 km 2 to estimate the density and abundance of birds on the North Slope of Alaska (U.S.A.). In the ground surveys, we used double sampling to estimate detection ratios. We used the aerial survey data to compare densities of birds and Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), the major nest predator of birds, on the North Slope, in Prudhoe Bay, and in nearby areas. We partitioned the Prudhoe Bay oil field into 2 × 2 km plots and determined the relation between density of aquatic birds and density of roads, buildings, and other infrastructure in these plots. Abundance and density (birds per square kilometer) of 3 groups of aquatic birds—waterfowl, loons, and grebes; shorebirds; and gulls, terns, and jaegers—were highest in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPRA) and lowest in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Six other major wetlands occur in the Arctic regions of Canada and Russia, but the largest population of aquatic birds was in the NPRA. Aquatic birds were concentrated in the northern part of the NPRA. For example, an area that covered 18% of the NPRA included 53% of its aquatic birds. The aerial surveys showed that bird density was not lower and fox density was not higher in Prudhoe Bay than in surrounding areas. Density of infrastructure did not significantly affect bird density for any group of species. Our results establish that the NPRA is one of the most important areas for aquatic birds in the Arctic. Our results and those of others also indicate that oil production, as practiced in Prudhoe Bay, does not necessarily lead to substantial declines in bird density or productivity in or near the developed areas.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Methods

Detecting declines in population size is one of the highest priorities of the shorebird initiatives in Canada and the United States. The quantitative goal is 80% power to detect a 50% decline, occurring during no more than 20 years, with a significance level of 0.15, using a two-tailed test, and incorporating effects of potential bias into the estimator. The Arctic PRISM program was designed to achieve this goal for arctic-nesting shorebird populations. The survey methods are an application of double sampling. Rapid surveys were made on a large number of plots selected from throughout arctic Alaska and Canada using stratified random sampling. Intensive surveys were made on a subsample of the plots to obtain detection rates, which were used to calibrate results from rapidly surveyed plots. Surveys will be made of the entire arctic region, each lasting several years and producing an estimate of average population size during the survey period. Results from two or more survey periods will be used to estimate change, or trend, in population size.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Shorebird surveys in western Alaska

Surveys for breeding shorebirds were conducted during 2001-2002 in four National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in western Alaska - Alaska Maritime, Alaska Peninsula, Yukon Delta and Selawik. The sizes of our study areas on and adjacent to these four refuges were 9,243 km 2 , 24,493 km 2 , 853 km 2 , and 15,170 km 2 , respectively. Eleven sites were selected non-randomly, 3 in the Alaska Maritime NWR, 6 in the Alaska Peninsula, and one each in the other two NWRs. Survey and analytic methods are described in Chapter 2. Rapid surveys were conducted on 224 plots; 2,163 indicated pairs of shorebirds were recorded of which 1,485 were judged to be nesting in the surveyed plots. Detection ratios were estimated using intensive plot data from northern Alaska as well as from two plots on the Yukon Delta NWR. The highest estimated densities (shorebirds/km 2 ) were on the Yukon Delta Study Area: 416 in wetlands and 300 in moist areas. The estimated densities on the Alaska Peninsula Study Area were 118 in wetlands and 62 in uplands. Other densities were markedly lower. Estimated numbers of shorebirds were 62,000 (CV = 0.58), 1,804,000 (CV = 0.32), 310,000 (CV = 0.11), and 390,000 (CV = 0.35), in the Alaska Maritime, Alaska Peninsula, Yukon Delta, and Selawik study areas, respectively. The former two estimates were affected by selection bias of unknown magnitude and so should be regarded with caution. A small estimate was generated for the Yukon Delta Study Area because it covered only about 1% of the Yukon Delta NWR. We identify several species-specific estimates from our study which appear inconsistent with previous continental estimates. This pilot study provides preliminary estimates of species composition and density in the surveyed areas. By incorporating several region-specific modifications to the sampling protocols for future surveys, we believe that the Arctic PRISM method is suitable for covering large areas in western Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Appendix A: other methods for estimating trends of Arctic birds

The Arctic PRISM was designed to determine shorebird population size and trend. During an extensive peer review of PRISM, some reviewers suggested that measuring demographic rates or monitoring shorebirds on migration would be more appropriate than estimating population size on the breeding grounds. However, each method has its own limitations. For demographic monitoring, an unbiased estimate based on a large sample of first-year survivorship would be extremely difficult for shorebirds in the arctic because the needed sample size would be unobtainable (in Canada at least) and the level of effort that would need to be expended (both financial and human resource-wise) would far exceed that of the current Arctic PRISM methodology. For migration monitoring, issues such as changes in use of monitored to non-monitored sites, residency times, and detection rates introduce bias that has not yet been resolved. While we believe demographic and migration monitoring are very valuable and are already components of the PRISM approach (e.g., Tier 2 sites focus on the collection of demographic data), we do not believe that either is likely to achieve the PRISM accuracy target of an 80% power to detect a 50% decline.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

Sampling large landscapes with small-scale stratification-User's Manual

This manual explains procedures for partitioning a large landscape into plots, assigning the plots to strata, and selecting plots in each stratum to be surveyed. These steps are referred to as the "sampling large landscapes (SLL) process." We assume that users of the manual have a moderate knowledge of ArcGIS and Microsoft ® Excel. The manual is written for a single user but in many cases, some steps will be carried out by a biologist designing the survey and some steps will be carried out by a quantitative assistant. Thus, the manual essentially may be passed back and forth between these users. The SLL process primarily has been used to survey birds, and we refer to birds as subjects of the counts. The process, however, could be used to count any objects. ®

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

DS-Software for analyzing data collected using double sampling

DS analyzes count data to estimate density or relative density and population size when appropriate. The software is no longer available. The software was designed to analyze data collected using double sampling, but it also can be used to analyze index data. DS is not currently configured to apply distance methods or methods based on capture-recapture theory. Double sampling for the purpose of this report means surveying a sample of locations with a rapid method of unknown accuracy and surveying a subset of these locations using a more intensive method assumed to yield unbiased estimates. "Detection ratios" are calculated as the ratio of results from rapid surveys on intensive plots to the number actually present as determined from the intensive surveys. The detection ratios are used to adjust results from the rapid surveys. The formula for density is (results from rapid survey)/(estimated detection ratio from intensive surveys). Population sizes are estimated as (density)(area). Double sampling is well-established in the survey sampling literature—see Cochran (1977) for the basic theory, Smith (1995) for applications of double sampling in waterfowl surveys, Bart and Earnst (2002, 2005) for discussions of its use in wildlife studies, and Bart and others (in press) for a detailed account of how the method was used to survey shorebirds across the arctic region of North America. Indices are surveys that do not involve complete counts of well-defined plots or recording information to estimate detection rates (Thompson and others, 1998). In most cases, such data should not be used to estimate density or population size but, under some circumstances, may be used to compare two densities or estimate how density changes through time or across space (Williams and others, 2005). The Breeding Bird Survey (Sauer and others, 2008) provides a good example of an index survey. Surveyors record all birds detected but do not record any information, such as distance or whether each bird is recorded in subperiods, that could be used to estimate detection rates. Nonetheless, the data are widely used to estimate temporal trends and spatial patterns in abundance (Sauer and others, 2008). DS produces estimates of density (or relative density for indices) by species and stratum. Strata are usually defined using region and habitat but other variables may be used, and the entire study area may be classified as a single stratum. Population size in each stratum and for the entire study area also is estimated for each species. For indices, the estimated totals generally are only useful if (a) plots are surveyed so that densities can be calculated and extrapolated to the entire study area and (b) if the detection rates are close to 1.0. All estimates are accompanied by standard errors (SE) and coefficients of variation (CV, that is, SE/estimate).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Use of large-scale, multi-species surveys to monitor gyrfalcon and ptarmigan populations

We evaluated the ability of three large-scale, multi-species surveys in the Arctic to provide information on abundance and habitat relationships of Gyrfalcons ( Falco rusticolus ) and ptarmigan. The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) has surveyed birds widely across the arctic regions of Canada and Alaska since 2001. The Arctic Coastal Plain survey has collected abundance information on the North Slope of Alaska using fixed-wing aircraft since 1992. The Northwest Territories-Nunavut Bird Checklist has collected presence-absence information from little-known locations in northern Canada since 1995. All three surveys provide extensive information on Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus) and Rock Ptarmigan (L. muta). For example, they show that ptarmigan are most abundant in western Alaska, next most abundant in northern Alaska and northwest Canada, and least abundant in the Canadian Archipelago. PRISM surveys were less successful in detecting Gyrfalcons, and the Arctic Coastal Plain Survey is largely outside the Gyrfalcon's breeding range. The Checklist Survey, however, reflects the expansive Gyrfalcon range in Canada. We suggest that collaboration by Gyrfalcon and ptarmigan biologists with the organizers of large scale surveys like the ones we investigated provides an opportunity for obtaining useful information on these species and their environment across large areas.

Alaska, Northern Canada↗
USGS2010

A sampling plan for riparian birds of the Lower Colorado River-Final Report

A sampling plan was designed for the Bureau of Reclamation for selected riparian birds occurring along the Colorado River from Lake Mead to the southerly International Boundary with Mexico. The goals of the sampling plan were to estimate long-term trends in abundance and investigate habitat relationships especially in new habitat being created by the Bureau of Reclamation. The initial objective was to design a plan for the Gila Woodpecker (Melanerpes uropygialis), Arizona Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii arizonae), Sonoran Yellow Warbler (Dendroica petechia sonorana), Summer Tanager (Piranga rubra), Gilded Flicker (Colaptes chrysoides), and Vermilion Flycatcher (Pyrocephalus rubinus); however, too little data were obtained for the last two species. Recommendations were therefore based on results for the first four species. The study area was partitioned into plots of 7 to 23 hectares. Plot borders were drawn to place the best habitat for the focal species in the smallest number of plots so that survey efforts could be concentrated on these habitats. Double sampling was used in the survey. In this design, a large sample of plots is surveyed a single time, yielding estimates of unknown accuracy, and a subsample is surveyed intensively to obtain accurate estimates. The subsample is used to estimate detection ratios, which are then applied to the results from the extensive survey to obtain unbiased estimates of density and population size. These estimates are then used to estimate long-term trends in abundance. Four sampling plans for selecting plots were evaluated based on a simulation using data from the Breeding Bird Survey. The design with the highest power involved selecting new plots every year. Power with 80 plots surveyed per year was more than 80 percent for three of the four species. Results from the surveys were used to provide recommendations to the Bureau of Reclamation for their surveys of new habitat being created in the study area.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Survey trends of North American shorebirds: Population declines or shifting distributions?

We analyzed data from two surveys of fall migrating shorebirds in central and eastern North America to estimate annual trends in means per survey and to determine whether trends indicate a change in population size or might have been caused by other factors. The analysis showed a broad decline in means per survey in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States (North Atlantic region). For example, 9 of 9 significant trends in this region were <1 (P=0.004), and the mean, annual rate of change among 30 species was 0.9783, a decline of −2.17% per year (P<0.001). Trends in the midwestern United States (Midwest region) showed no clear pattern. The mean among 29 species was 1.0090 (P=0.35). Only 4 of the trends were significant. Several hypotheses were evaluated to identify causes of the declining means per survey in the North Atlantic region. The most likely hypothesis appears to be a decline in the breeding populations that supply migrants to the North Atlantic region, but a change in movements, for example passing through the region more quickly in recent years, cannot be excluded as an explanation. Further surveys of arctic breeding areas coupled with analysis of long‐term survey data from western North America would be helpful in determining whether the declines found in this analysis are also occurring in other areas.

Journal of Avian Biology↗
USGS2005

Population size and winter distribution of eastern American oystercatchers

Conservation of the eastern subspecies of the American oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus palliatus ) is a high priority in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, but previous population estimates were unreliable, information on distribution and habitat associations during winter was incomplete, and methods for long-term monitoring had not been developed prior to this survey. We completed the aerial survey proposed in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan to determine population size, winter distribution, and habitat associations. We conducted coastal aerial surveys from New Jersey to Texas during November 2002 to February 2003. This area comprised the entire wintering range of the eastern American oystercatcher within the United States. Surveys covered all suitable habitat in the United States for the subspecies, partitioned into 3 survey strata: known roost sites, high-use habitat, and inter-coastal tidal habitat. We determined known roost sites from extensive consultation with biologists and local experts in each state. High-use habitat included sand islands, sand spits at inlets, shell rakes, and oyster reefs. Partner organizations conducted ground counts in most states. We used high resolution still photography to determine detection rates for estimates of the number of birds in particular flocks, and we used ground counts to determine detection rates of flocks. Using a combination of ground and aerial counts, we estimated the population of eastern American oystercatchers to be 10,971 /− 298. Aerial surveys can serve an important management function for shorebirds and possibly other coastal waterbirds by providing population status and trend information across a wide geographic scale.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2004

Density estimation in wildlife surveys

Several authors have recently discussed the problems with using index methods to estimate trends in population size. Some have expressed the view that index methods should virtually never be used. Others have responded by defending index methods and questioning whether better alternatives exist. We suggest that index methods are often a cost-effective component of valid wildlife monitoring but that double-sampling or another procedure that corrects for bias or establishes bounds on bias is essential. The common assertion that index methods require constant detection rates for trend estimation is mathematically incorrect; the requirement is no long-term trend in detection "ratios" (index result/parameter of interest), a requirement that is probably approximately met by many well-designed index surveys. We urge that more attention be given to defining bird density rigorously and in ways useful to managers. Once this is done, 4 sources of bias in density estimates may be distinguished: coverage, closure, surplus birds, and detection rates. Distance, double-observer, and removal methods do not reduce bias due to coverage, closure, or surplus birds. These methods may yield unbiased estimates of the number of birds present at the time of the survey, but only if their required assumptions are met, which we doubt occurs very often in practice. Double-sampling, in contrast, produces unbiased density estimates if the plots are randomly selected and estimates on the intensive surveys are unbiased. More work is needed, however, to determine the feasibility of double-sampling in different populations and habitats. We believe the tension that has developed over appropriate survey methods can best be resolved through increased appreciation of the mathematical aspects of indices, especially the effects of bias, and through studies in which candidate methods are evaluated against known numbers determined through intensive surveys.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2003

Estimating population trends with a linear model

We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

The Condor↗
USGS2003

Response of vegetation and breeding birds to the removal of cattle on the San Pedro River, Arizona (U.S.A.)

In late 1987 cattle were removed from the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area ( NCA ) in southeastern Arizona ( U.S.A. ). We monitored vegetation density and abundance of birds during the breeding season during 1986a??1990 in riparian, mesquite grassland, and Chihuahuan desert-scrub communities in the NCA. The density of herbaceous vegetation increased four- to six-fold in riparian and mesquite grassland communities. Little change occurred in herbaceous vegetation in desert scrub, or in the density of shrubs or trees in any of the communities. Of 61 bird species for which sufficient data were collected, mean detections per kilometer increased for 42 species, 26 significantly, and decreased for 19 species, 8 significantly. The number of individuals of all avian species detected on surveys increased each year from 103/kilometer in 1986 to 221/kilometer in 1991, an average annual increase of 23% ( p < 0.001 ). The largest increases occurred in riparian species, open-cup nesters, Neotropical migrants, and insectivores. Species of the Chihuahuan desert-scrub, in which vegetation changed the least, showed the smallest increases. Only a few of the species showed increasing regional trends for the same period, as demonstrated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey; thus, increases on the San Pedro Riparian NCA were likely caused by the change in local conditions, not by regional effects. Our results suggest that removing cattle from riparian areas in the southwestern United States can have profound benefits for breeding birds.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2002

Double sampling to estimate density and population trends in birds

We present a method for estimating density of nesting birds based on double sampling. The approach involves surveying a large sample of plots using a rapid method such as uncorrected point counts, variable circular plot counts, or the recently suggested double-observer method. A subsample of those plots is also surveyed using intensive methods to determine actual density. The ratio of the mean count on those plots (using the rapid method) to the mean actual density (as determined by the intensive searches) is used to adjust results from the rapid method. The approach works well when results from the rapid method are highly correlated with actual density. We illustrate the method with three years of shorebird surveys from the tundra in northern Alaska. In the rapid method, surveyors covered ~10 ha h -1 and surveyed each plot a single time. The intensive surveys involved three thorough searches, required ~3 h ha -1 , and took 20% of the study effort. Surveyors using the rapid method detected an average of 79% of birds present. That detection ratio was used to convert the index obtained in the rapid method into an essentially unbiased estimate of density. Trends estimated from several years of data would also be essentially unbiased. Other advantages of double sampling are that (1) the rapid method can be changed as new methods become available, (2) domains can be compared even if detection rates differ, (3) total population size can be estimated, and (4) valuable ancillary information (e.g. nest success) can be obtained on intensive plots with little additional effort. We suggest that double sampling be used to test the assumption that rapid methods, such as variable circular plot and double-observer methods, yield density estimates that are essentially unbiased. The feasibility of implementing double sampling in a range of habitats needs to be evaluated.

The Auk↗
USGS2002

Collaborative approaches to the evolution of migration and the development of science-based conservation in shorebirds

Shorebirds are among the most highly migratory creatures on earth. Both the study of their ecology and ongoing efforts to conserve their populations must reflect this central aspect of their biology. Many species of shorebirds use migration and staging sites scattered throughout the hemisphere to complete their annual migrations between breeding areas and nonbreeding habitats (Morrison 1984). The vast distances between habitats they use pose significant challenges for studying their migration ecology. At the same time, the large number of political boundaries shorebirds cross during their epic migrations create parallel challenges for organizations working on their management and conservation. Nebel et al. (2002) represent a collaborative effort to understand the conservation implications of Western Sandpiper ( Calidris mauri ) migration ecology on a scale worthy of this highly migratory species. The data sets involved in the analysis come from four U.S. states, two Canadian provinces, and a total of five nations. Only by collaborating on this historic scale were the authors able to assemble the information necessary to understand important aspects of the migration ecology of this species, and the implications for conservation of the patterns they discovered. Collaborative approaches to shorebird migration ecology developed slowly over several decades. The same period also saw the creation of large-scale efforts to monitor and conserve shorebirds. This overview first traces the history of the study of migration ecology of shorebirds during that fertile period, and then describes the monitoring and protection efforts that have been developed in an attempt to address the enormous issues of scale posed by shorebird migration ecology and conservation.

The Auk↗