Geology topics

Jon Keeley

Publications and source records attributed to Jon Keeley.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Postfire population dynamics of a fire-dependent cypress

Tecate cypress ( Hesperocyparis forbesii ) is a rare species restricted to four metapopulations in southern California, USA and a few isolated stands in northern Baja California, Mexico. It is a closed-cone, fire-dependent tree of conservation concern due to an increase in human-caused wildfires that have shortened the interval between fires in many of their populations. In 2003 the Mine/Otay Fire burned 70% of the Tecate cypress on Otay Mountain in San Diego County, California providing an opportunity to evaluate the immaturity risk of this species and to examine its recruitment, survivorship, and reproductive maturity over a 14-year period from 2004 to 2017. Sixteen plots were established in burned stands of Tecate cypress with prefire ages that ranged from 7 to 53 years old. After 14 years the overall density of Tecate cypress was still higher than before the fire, however the areal extent of the species decreased due to the loss of locations where either there was low cone production or fire intensity was too high. The immaturity risk for this species, while a function of prefire stand age, is confounded by other factors including the reproductive capacities of trees based on their density and size and the climatic variables affecting their growth over time. The future management of Tecate cypress and other fire-dependent species requires a knowledge of all factors impacting their immaturity risk, as well as an understanding of the potential fire-climate interactions that may impact their persistence in a future of climate change and altered fire regimes.

California↗

USGS2019

Distinguishing disturbance from perturbations in fire-prone ecosystems

Fire is a necessary ecosystem process in many biomes and is best viewed as a natural disturbance that is beneficial to ecosystem functioning. However, increasingly we are seeing human interference in fire regimes that alter the historical range of variability for most fire parameters and result in vegetation shifts. Such perturbations can affect all fire regime parameters. Here we provide a brief overview of examples where anthropogenically driven changes in fire frequency, fire pattern, fuels consumed and fire intensity constitute perturbations that greatly disrupt natural disturbance cycles. These changes are not due to fire per se but rather anthropogenic perturbations in the natural disturbance regime.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2011

Effects of eradication and restoration treatments on Italian thistle ( Carduus pycnocephalus )

Low elevation grasslands in California long have been dominated by Mediterranean grasses, but many areas still have large native forb populations. Alien forbs invade these grasslands, displacing both native and other alien species. Italian thistle is a noxious alien herb that has recently invaded these grasslands, including ungrazed blue oak ( Quercus douglassii ) and interior live oak ( Quercus wislizenii ) stands in Sequoia National Park. Here, Italian thistle tends to dominate under oaks and has the potential to substantially alter the foothill ecosystem by displacing native plants and acting as a ladder fuel that can carry fires into the oak canopy. We tested the effects of selectively reducing Italian thistle populations alone and in combination with restoration of native species. Two thistle eradication techniques (clipping and the application of clopyralid herbicide) and two restoration techniques (addition of native forb seeds or planting native grass plugs) were used. After two consecutive years of treatment we found: a) clipping was not effective at reducing Italian thistle populations (clipping reduced Italian thistle density in some areas, but not vegetative cover), b) herbicide reduced both Italian thistle density and vegetative cover for the first two growing seasons after application, but cover rebounded in the third growing season, c) native forb cover and species richness were not significantly affected by clipping or spot-treating with herbicide, d) the grass and forb addition treatments by themselves were not effective at reducing Italian thistle during the course of this study and e) sowing annual forb seeds after clipping resulted in greater forb cover and moderately reduced Italian thistle vegetative cover in the short term.

California↗

USGS2007

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report↗