Geology topics

John Y. Takekawa

Publications and source records attributed to John Y. Takekawa.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Marshes to mudflats—Effects of sea-level rise on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest

Summary In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands support a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries and flood protection. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the effects of sea-level rise on nine tidal marshes in Washington and Oregon between 2012 and 2015, with the goal of providing scientific data to support future coastal planning and conservation. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, vegetation structure, as well as recent and historical sediment accretion rates, to assess and model how sea-level rise may alter these ecosystems in the future. Multiple factors, including initial elevation, marsh productivity, sediment availability, and rates of sea-level rise, affected marsh persistence. Under a low sea-level rise scenario, all marshes remained vegetated with little change in the present configuration of communities of marsh plants or gradually increased proportions of middle-, high-, or transition-elevation zones of marsh vegetation. However, at most sites, mid sea-level rise projections led to loss of habitat of middle and high marshes and a gain of low marshes. Under a high sea-level rise scenario, marshes at most sites eventually converted to intertidal mudflats. Two sites (Grays Harbor and Willapa) seemed to have the most resilience to a high rate of rise in sea-level, persisting as low marsh until at least 2110. Our main model finding is that most tidal marsh study sites are resilient to sea-level rise over the next 50–70 years, but that sea-level rise will eventually outpace marsh accretion and drown most habitats of high and middle marshes by 2110.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

A new method for discovering behavior patterns among animal movements

Advanced satellite tracking technologies enable biologists to track animal movements at fine spatial and temporal scales. The resultant data present opportunities and challenges for understanding animal behavioral mechanisms. In this paper, we develop a new method to elucidate animal movement patterns from tracking data. Here, we propose the notion of continuous behavior patterns as a concise representation of popular migration routes and underlying sequential behaviors during migration. Each stage in the pattern is characterized in terms of space (i.e., the places traversed during movements) and time (i.e. the time spent in those places); that is, the behavioral state corresponding to a stage is inferred according to the spatiotemporal and sequential context. Hence, the pattern may be interpreted predictably. We develop a candidate generation and refinement framework to derive all continuous behavior patterns from raw trajectories. In the framework, we first define the representative spots to denote the underlying potential behavioral states that are extracted from individual trajectories according to the similarity of relaxed continuous locations in certain distinct time intervals. We determine the common behaviors of multiple individuals according to the spatiotemporal proximity of representative spots and apply a projection-based extension approach to generate candidate sequential behavior sequences as candidate patterns. Finally, the candidate generation procedure is combined with a refinement procedure to derive continuous behavior patterns. We apply an ordered processing strategy to accelerate candidate refinement. The proposed patterns and discovery framework are evaluated through conceptual experiments on both real GPS-tracking and large synthetic datasets.

International Journal of Geographical Information ↗

USGS2015

Movement analysis of free-grazing domestic ducks in Poyang Lake, China: A disease connection

Previous work suggests domestic poultry are important contributors to the emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza throughout Asia. In Poyang Lake, China, domestic duck production cycles are synchronized with arrival and departure of thousands of migratory wild birds in the area. During these periods, high densities of juvenile domestic ducks are in close proximity to migratory wild ducks, increasing the potential for the virus to be transmitted and subsequently disseminated via migration. In this paper, we use GPS dataloggers and dynamic Brownian bridge models to describe movements and habitat use of free-grazing domestic ducks in the Poyang Lake basin and identify specific areas that may have the highest risk of H5N1 transmission between domestic and wild birds. Specifically, we determine relative use by free-grazing domestic ducks of natural wetlands, which are the most heavily used areas by migratory wild ducks, and of rice paddies, which provide habitat for resident wild ducks and lower densities of migratory wild ducks. To our knowledge, this is the first movement study on domestic ducks, and our data show potential for free-grazing domestic ducks from farms located near natural wetlands to come in contact with wild waterfowl, thereby increasing the risk for disease transmission. This study provides an example of the importance of movement ecology studies in understanding dynamics such as disease transmission on a complicated landscape.

Poyang Lake↗

USGS2015

Unintended consequences of management actions in salt pond restoration: cascading effects in trophic interactions

Salt evaporation ponds have played an important role as habitat for migratory waterbirds across the world, however, efforts to restore and manage these habitats to maximize their conservation value has proven to be challenging. For example, salinity reduction has been a goal for restoring and managing former salt evaporation ponds to support waterbirds in the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project in San Francisco Bay, California, USA. Here, we describe a case study of unexpected consequences of a low-dissolved oxygen (DO) event on trophic interactions in a salt pond system following management actions to reduce salinity concentrations. We document the ramifications of an anoxic event in water quality including salinity, DO, and temperature, and in the response of the biota including prey fish biomass, numerical response by California Gulls (Larus californicus), and chick survival of Forster's Tern (Sterna forsteri). Management actions intended to protect receiving waters resulted in decreased DO concentrations that collapsed to zero for ≥ 4 consecutive days, resulting in an extensive fish kill. DO depletion likely resulted from an algal bloom that arose following transition of the pond system from high to low salinity as respiration and decomposition outpaced photosynthetic production. We measured a ≥ 6-fold increase in biomass of fish dropped on the levee by foraging avian predators compared with weeks prior to and following the low-DO event. California Gulls rapidly responded to the availability of aerobically-stressed and vulnerable fish and increased in abundance by two orders of magnitude. Mark-recapture analysis of 254 Forster's Tern chicks indicated that their survival declined substantially following the increase in gull abundance. Thus, management actions to reduce salinity concentrations resulted in cascading effects in trophic interactions that serves as a cautionary tale illustrating the importance of understanding the interaction of water quality and trophic structure when managing restoration of salt ponds.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus . Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human levee and infrastructure preventing these types of processes. Other modeling efforts done for this area have projected marsh persistence to 2100, but our modeling effort with site-specific datasets allowed us to model at a finer resolution with much higher local confidence, resulting in different results for management. Our results suggest that projected sea-level rise will have significant impacts on marsh plant communities and obligate wildlife, including those already under federal and state protection. Comprehensive modeling as done here improves the potential to implement adaptive management strategies and prevent marsh habitat and wildlife loss in the future.

California↗

USGS2015

Movement ecology of five Afrotropical waterfowl species from Malawi, Mali and Nigeria

Habitat availability for Afrotropical waterbirds is highly dynamic with unpredictable rainfall patterns and ephemeral wetlands resulting in diverse movement strategies among different species. Movement strategies among waterfowl encompass resident, regional and intercontinental migrants, but little quantitative information exists on their specific movement patterns. We studied the movement ecology of five Afrotropical waterfowl species marked with satellite transmitters in Malawi, Mali and Nigeria. Resident species, including White-faced Whistling Ducks Dendrocygna viduata, Fulvous Whistling Ducks Dendrocygna bicolor and Spur-winged Geese Plectropterus gambensis, remained sedentary during the rainy season and only flew limited distances during other months. In contrast, Knob-billed Ducks Sarkidiornis melanotos made short regional movements >50 km in all months and showed little site fidelity to previously used habitats in subsequent years. Garganey Anas quequedula followed an intercontinental strategy and made long-distance jumps across the Sahara and Mediterranean to their Eurasian breeding grounds. Most species flew farthest during the dry season, as mean daily movements varied from 1.5 to 14.2 km and was greatest in the winter months (January-March). Total distance moved varied from 9.5 km for White-faced Whistling Ducks (October-December) to 45.6 km for Knob-billed Ducks (April-June). Nomadic behaviour by Knob-billed Ducks was evidenced by long exploratory flights, but small mean daily movements suggested that they were relying on previous experience. Improving our understanding of these movement strategies increases our ability to assess connectivity of wetland resources that support waterfowl throughout their annual cycle and focuses conservation efforts on their most important habitats.

Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands, Inner Niger Delta, Lake Ch↗

USGS2015

Mapping migratory flyways in Asia using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models

Background Identifying movement routes and stopover sites is necessary for developing effective management and conservation strategies for migratory animals. In the case of migratory birds, a collection of migration routes, known as a flyway, is often hundreds to thousands of kilometers long and can extend across political boundaries. Flyways encompass the entire geographic range between the breeding and non-breeding areas of a population, species, or a group of species, and they provide spatial frameworks for management and conservation across international borders. Existing flyway maps are largely qualitative accounts based on band returns and survey data rather than observed movement routes. In this study, we use satellite and GPS telemetry data and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to build upon existing maps and describe waterfowl space use probabilistically in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. Results Our approach provided new information on migratory routes that was not easily attainable with existing methods to describe flyways. Utilization distributions from dynamic Brownian bridge movement models identified key staging and stopover sites, migration corridors and general flyway outlines in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. A map of space use from ruddy shelducks depicted two separate movement corridors within the Central Asian Flyway, likely representing two distinct populations that show relatively strong connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Bar-headed geese marked at seven locations in the Central Asian Flyway showed heaviest use at several stopover sites in the same general region of high-elevation lakes along the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our analysis of data from multiple Anatidae species marked at sites throughout Asia highlighted major movement corridors across species and confirmed that the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways were spatially distinct. Conclusions The dynamic Brownian bridge movement model improves our understanding of flyways by estimating relative use of regions in the flyway while providing detailed, quantitative information on migration timing and population connectivity including uncertainty between locations. This model effectively quantifies the relative importance of different migration corridors and stopover sites and may help prioritize specific areas in flyways for conservation of waterbird populations.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2015

Movements of radio-marked California Ridgway's rails during monitoring surveys: Implications for population monitoring

The California Ridgway's rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus (hereafter California rail) is a secretive marsh bird endemic to tidal marshes in the San Francisco Bay (hereafter bay) of California. The California rail has undergone significant range contraction and population declines due to a variety of factors, including predation and the degradation and loss of habitat. Call-count surveys, which include call playbacks, based on the standardized North American marsh bird monitoring protocol have been conducted throughout the bay since 2005 to monitor population size and distribution of the California rail. However, call-count surveys are difficult to evaluate for efficacy or accuracy. To measure the accuracy of call-count surveys and investigate whether radio-marked California rails moved in response to call-count surveys, we compared locations of radio-marked California rails collected at frequent intervals (15 min) to California rail detections recorded during call-count surveys conducted over the same time periods. Overall, 60% of radio-marked California rails within 200 m of observers were not detected during call-count surveys. Movements of radio-marked California rails showed no directional bias ( P = 0.92) irrespective of whether or not playbacks of five marsh bird species (including the California rail) were broadcast from listening stations. Our findings suggest that playbacks of rail vocalizations do not consistently influence California rail movements during surveys. However, call-count surveys may underestimate California rail presence; therefore, caution should be used when relating raw numbers of call-count detections to population abundance.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Sea-level rise and refuge habitats for tidal marsh species: Can artificial islands save the California Ridgway's rail?

Terrestrial species living in intertidal habitats experience refuge limitation during periods of tidal inundation, which may be exacerbated by seasonal variation in vegetation structure, tidal cycles , and land-use change. Sea-level rise projections indicate the severity of refuge limitation may increase. Artificial habitats that provide escape cover during tidal inundation have been proposed as a temporary solution to alleviate these limitations. We tested for evidence of refuge habitat limitation in a population of endangered California Ridgway's rail ( Rallus obsoletus obsoletus ; hereafter California rail) through use of artificial floating island habitats provided during two winters. Previous studies demonstrated that California rail mortality was especially high during the winter and periods of increased tidal inundation, suggesting that tidal refuge habitat is critical to survival. In our study, California rail regularly used artificial islands during higher tides and daylight hours. When tide levels inundated the marsh plain, use of artificial islands was at least 300 times more frequent than would be expected if California rails used artificial habitats proportional to their availability (0.016%). Probability of use varied among islands, and low levels of use were observed at night. These patterns may result from anti-predator behaviors and heterogeneity in either rail density or availability of natural refuges. Endemic saltmarsh species are increasingly at risk from habitat change resulting from sea-level rise and development of adjacent uplands. Escape cover during tidal inundation may need to be supplemented if species are to survive. Artificial habitats may provide effective short-term mitigation for habitat change and sea-level rise in tidal marsh environments, particularly for conservation-reliant species such as California rails.

California↗

USGS2015

Dietary mercury exposure to endangered California Clapper Rails in San Francisco Bay

California Clapper Rails ( Rallus longirostris obsoletus ) are an endangered waterbird that forage in tidal-marsh habitats that pose risks from mercury exposure. We analyzed total mercury (Hg) in six macro-invertebrate and one fish species representing Clapper Rail diets from four tidal-marshes in San Francisco Bay, California. Mercury concentrations among individual taxa ranged from lowest at Colma Creek (mean range: 0.09–0.2 μg/g dw) to highest at Cogswell (0.2–0.7), Laumeister (0.2–0.9) and Arrowhead Marshes (0.3–1.9). These spatial patterns for Hg matched patterns reported previously in Clapper Rail blood from the same four marshes. Over 25% of eastern mudsnails ( Ilyanassa obsolete ) and staghorn sculpin ( Leptocottus armatus ) exceeded dietary Hg concentrations (ww) often associated with avian reproductive impairment. Our results indicate that Hg concentrations vary considerably among tidal-marshes and diet taxa, and Hg concentrations of prey may provide an appropriate proxy for relative exposure risk for Clapper Rails.

California↗

USGS2015

Discovering loose group movement patterns from animal trajectories

The technical advances of positioning technologies enable us to track animal movements at finer spatial and temporal scales, and further help to discover a variety of complex interactive relationships. In this paper, considering the loose gathering characteristics of the real-life groups' members during the movements, we propose two kinds of loose group movement patterns and corresponding discovery algorithms. Firstly, we propose the weakly consistent group movement pattern which allows the gathering of a part of the members and individual temporary leave from the whole during the movements. To tolerate the high dispersion of the group at some moments (i.e. to adapt the discontinuity of the group's gatherings), we further scheme the weakly consistent and continuous group movement pattern. The extensive experimental analysis and comparison with the real and synthetic data shows that the group pattern discovery algorithms proposed in this paper are similar to the the real-life frequent divergences of the members during the movements, can discover more complete memberships, and have considerable performance.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

The roller coaster flight strategy of bar-headed geese conserves energy during Himalayan migrations

The physiological and biomechanical requirements of flight at high altitude have been the subject of much interest. Here, we uncover a steep relation between heart rate and wingbeat frequency (raised to the exponent 3.5) and estimated metabolic power and wingbeat frequency (exponent 7) of migratory bar-headed geese. Flight costs increase more rapidly than anticipated as air density declines, which overturns prevailing expectations that this species should maintain high-altitude flight when traversing the Himalayas. Instead, a "roller coaster" strategy, of tracking the underlying terrain and discarding large altitude gains only to recoup them later in the flight with occasional benefits from orographic lift, is shown to be energetically advantageous for flights over the Himalayas.

Science↗

USGS2015

Stable isotopes suggest low site fidelity in Bar-Headed Geese (Anser indicus) in Mongolia: Implications for disease transmission

Population connectivity is an important consideration in studies of disease transmission and biological conservation, especially with regard to migratory species. Determining how and when different subpopulations intermingle during different phases of the annual cycle can help identify important geographical regions or features as targets for conservation efforts and can help inform our understanding of continental-scale disease transmission. In this study, stable isotopes of hydrogen and carbon in contour feathers were used to assess the degree of molt-site fidelity among Bar-headed Geese ( Anser indicus ) captured in north-central Mongolia. Samples were collected from actively molting Bar-headed Geese ( n = 61), and some individual samples included both a newly grown feather (still in sheath) and an old, worn feather from the bird's previous molt ( n = 21). Although there was no difference in mean hydrogen isotope ratios for the old and new feathers, the isotopic variance in old feathers was approximately three times higher than that of the new feathers, which suggests that these birds use different and geographically distant molting locations from year to year. To further test this conclusion, online data and modeling tools from the isoMAP website were used to generate probability landscapes for the origin of each feather. Likely molting locations were much more widespread for old feathers than for new feathers, which supports the prospect of low molt-site fidelity. This finding indicates that population connectivity would be greater than expected based on data from a single annual cycle, and that disease spread can be rapid even in areas like Mongolia where Bar-headed Geese generally breed in small isolated groups.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2015

Vegetation community response to tidal marsh restoration of a large river estuary

Estuaries are biologically productive and diverse ecosystems that provide ecosystem services including protection of inland areas from flooding, filtering freshwater outflows, and providing habitats for fish and wildlife. Alteration of historic habitats, including diking for agriculture, has decreased the function of many estuarine systems, and recent conservation efforts have been directed at restoring these degraded areas to reestablish their natural resource function. The Nisqually Delta in southern Puget Sound is an estuary that has been highly modified by restricting tidal flow, and recent restoration of the delta contributed to one of the largest tidal salt marsh restorations in the Pacific Northwest. We correlated the response of nine major tidal marsh species to salinities at different elevation zones. Our results indicated that wetland species richness was not related to soil pore-water salinity (R2 = 0.03), but were stratified into different elevation zones (R2 = 0.47). Thus, restoration that fosters a wide range of elevations will provide the most diverse plant habitat, and potentially, the greatest resilience to environmental change.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion are increasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborative decision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bay estuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgment developed alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while considering uncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regarding intensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatible models and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysis lead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties about climate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategy is robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholders about the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

California↗

USGS2015

Science foundation Chapter 5 Appendix 5.1: Case study diving ducks

Diving ducks are the most abundant group of waterfowl that overwinter in the open bays and ponds of San Francisco Bay (SFB). Species within this group are primarily benthivores that dive to obtain their macroinvertebrate prey in bottom sediments, although at times they may eat plant matter or forage in the water column. These migratory species include bay ducks (lesser scaup Aythya affinis , greater scaup A. marila , canvasback A. valisineria ), sea ducks (surf scoter Melanitta perspicillata and bufflehead Bucephala albeola ), and a stiff-tailed duck (ruddy duck Oxyura jamaicensis ). These species vary from largest to smallest body mass: canvasback, greater scaup, surf scoter, lesser scaup, ruddy duck, and bufflehead. Their breeding grounds range from Central Valley grasslands, intermountain wetlands, prairie potholes, boreal forest, and Arctic tundra. Their wintering populations in SFB are most abundant between October and April, and SFB comprises up to 50% of the number counted during midwinter surveys on the lower Pacific coast. Species are found in all SFB regions, but greater scaup and surf scoter are most often seen in subtidal to intertidal waters and are not commonly found in baylands. In contrast, ruddy duck and bufflehead populations are most abundant in baylands, particularly in managed ponds. Canvasbacks are commonly found at estuaries or creek mouths.

California↗

USGS2014

Avian influenza H5N1 viral and bird migration networks in Asia

The spatial spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and its long-term persistence in Asia have resulted in avian influenza panzootics and enormous economic losses in the poultry sector. However, an understanding of the regional long-distance transmission and seasonal patterns of the virus is still lacking. In this study, we present a phylogeographic approach to reconstruct the viral migration network. We show that within each wild fowl migratory flyway, the timing of H5N1 outbreaks and viral migrations are closely associated, but little viral transmission was observed between the flyways. The bird migration network is shown to better reflect the observed viral gene sequence data than other networks and contributes to seasonal H5N1 epidemics in local regions and its large-scale transmission along flyways. These findings have potentially far-reaching consequences, improving our understanding of how bird migration drives the periodic reemergence of H5N1 in Asia.

PNAS↗