Geology topics

John T. Kemper

Publications and source records attributed to John T. Kemper.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Leveraging high-frequency sensor data and U.S. National Water Model output to forecast turbidity in a drinking water supply basin

As high-frequency sensor networks increasingly enhance data-driven models of water quality, process-based models like the U.S. National Water Model (NWM) are generating accessible forecasts of streamflow at increasingly dense scales. There is now an opportunity to combine these products to construct actionable water quality forecasts. To that end, we couple streamflow forecasts from the NWM to a gradient-boosted decision tree algorithm (LightGBM) trained on 5+ years of high-frequency monitoring data to forecast in-stream turbidity levels in the Catskill Mountains, NY, USA. Results indicate LightGBM models are capable of relatively skillful predictions, which enable robust forecasts for 1–3 days lead times. LightGBM models offer improvements over a simplified linear model across the entire forecast horizon, and more spatially complex models are more resilient to error at shorter lead times (1–3 days). Moreover, interpretation of model features emphasizes high flows as a driver of turbidity in the region. Results suggest that interpretable, flexible, and efficient machine learning algorithms can produce capable water quality forecasts from streamflow forecasts and expand understanding of process dynamics. The use case illustrated here—to our knowledge the first NWM-based water quality forecast—underscores the potential to employ the NWM to expand national water quality forecasting capacity and can overall serve as a guide for similar efforts in basins across the country.

New York↗

USGS2024

Downstream decreases in water availability, tree height, canopy volume and growth rate in cottonwood forests along the Green River, southwestern USA

Hydrologic stress is increasing in Fremont cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) forests across the southwestern United States because of increased temperature and streamflow diversion. The spatial variability of this stress is large yet poorly understood. Along the Yampa and Green Rivers in Colorado and Utah, vapour pressure deficit and flow diversions increase downstream. To investigate effects of this gradient on cottonwoods, we measured the percent live canopy and height of randomly selected trees at three sites: Deerlodge Park on the Yampa River (DLP), Island Park on the upper Green (ILP) and Canyonlands National Park on the lower Green (CAN). From these same trees, we took increment cores to understand differences in tree growth in each forest over time. We then related tree metrics to local water availability, streamflow and climatic data. Cottonwoods at CAN were shorter and had lower percent live canopy and growth rate than similarly aged trees upstream. CAN trees that grew higher above the water surface also tended to have lower tree growth, height and live canopy percentage. Furthermore, the correlation between tree growth and maximum vapour pressure deficit showed a much stronger negative shift since 1990 at CAN than at the other sites. All of these differences suggest higher hydrologic stress at CAN, which we attribute to the combined effects of peak flow declines from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, flow diversion and the higher and increasing vapour pressure deficit at CAN. Further research on the variability of hydrologic stress on cottonwoods could help managers anticipate and mitigate the effects of drought stress in these iconic forests.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2023

Putting down roots: Afforestation and bank cohesion of Icelandic Rivers

Riparian vegetation is widely recognized as a critical component of functioning fluvial systems. Human pressures on woody vegetation including riparian areas have had lasting effects, especially at high latitude. In Iceland, prior to human settlement, native downy birch woodlands covered approximately 15%–40% of the land area compared to 1%–2% today. Afforestation efforts include planting seedlings, protecting native forest remnants, and acquiring land areas as national forests. The planted and protected nature of vegetation along rivers within forests provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the various taxa within riparian zones and the channel stabilizing characteristics of the vegetation used in afforestation. We investigated bank properties, sediment textures, and root characteristics within riparian zones along four rivers in forests in Iceland. Bank sediment textures are dominantly sandy loam overlying coarser textures. Undercut banks are common because of erosion of the less cohesive subsurface layer. Quantitative root data indicate that the woody taxa have greater root densities, rooting depths, and more complex root structures than forbs or graminoids. The native downy birch has the highest root densities, with <1 mm roots most abundant. Modeling of added bank cohesion indicates that willow provides up to six times and birch up to four times more added cohesion to the coarse sediment textures comprising stream banks compared to no vegetation. We conclude that planting and protecting the native birch and willow helps to reduce bank erosion, especially where long-term grazing exclusion can be maintained.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2022

Fingerprinting historical tributary contributions to floodplain sediment using bulk geochemistry

Sediment deposition on floodplains is essential for the development and maintenance of riparian ecosystems. Upstream erosion is known to influence downstream floodplain construction, but linking these disparate processes is challenging, especially over large spatial and temporal scales. Sediment fingerprinting is thus a robust tool to establish process linkages between downstream floodplain development and sediment production in distal headwater basins. Here we use sediment geochemistry to connect historical erosion in several tributaries of the Yampa River in Colorado and Wyoming, USA, to the construction of downstream floodplains on which extensive cottonwood forests established. Using a combination of conventional techniques and the relatively novel machine-learning random forest algorithm, we build multiple fingerprints of diagnostic geochemical tracers that are then input into a Bayesian mixing model to apportion provenance of floodplain sediment. Sediment samples for provenance analysis were collected from an excavated floodplain in Deerlodge Park on the Yampa River at the rooting surface of the surrounding cottonwood forest and dominantly comprised of very fine (4Φ) sand. Fingerprinting analysis of the 4Φ fraction of collected floodplain sink (n = 38) and tributary source (n = 218) samples revealed floodplain sediment to be dominantly sourced from the tributaries of Muddy Creek (45 ± 4%) and Sand Wash (42 ± 6%). Dendrochronology results moreover indicate the Deerlodge floodplain sediment was deposited in ∼1912, which falls squarely within the time (1880–1940) these tributaries were actively eroding. Taken together, study results indicate a demonstrable link between historical tributary erosion and downstream floodplain construction and concomitant forest establishment. Our findings suggest processes operating in tributary watersheds play an important role in the dynamics of large rivers and emphasize both the need for holistic, collaborative management of sediment as an essential resource and the potential to utilize sediment fingerprinting to inform and direct river ecosystem management.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Sediment-ecological connectivity in a large river network

Sediment eroded from the headwaters of a large basin strongly influences channels and ecosystems far downstream, but the connection is often difficult to trace. Disturbance-dependent riparian trees are thought to rely primarily on floods for formation of the sand bars necessary for seedling establishment, but pulses of sediment should also promote formation of such features. In order to expand understanding of the role of sediment connectivity in governing ecological processes, here we explore the hypothesis that cottonwood forest along the Green and Yampa Rivers in Utah and Colorado are dominated by trees established a century ago during a period of extensive channel migration caused by significant headwater erosion. Analysis of historical documents and aerial photographs suggests that three key tributaries of the Yampa River underwent significant historical erosion from roughly 1880 to 1940. Average width and depth of tributaries with defined arroyos increased two to six times from historical surveys, resulting in the export of ~30 million metric tons of sediment, sizably increasing the sediment load and channel migration rate of the Yampa and Green Rivers. Establishment of major portions of several downstream cottonwood forests occurred during this period of historical erosion, increased sediment loads, and heightened channel migration rates, and the area of forest dating to that time is much greater than can be explained by high flows alone. Viewed collectively, our findings suggest tributary erosion played a vital role in successful downstream forest establishment, a link we contend is best illustrated through a sediment-ecological connectivity framework. Broadly, this framework facilitates consideration of linkages between morphological and ecological processes at the watershed-scale. Development and utilization of a watershed-scale sediment-ecological connectivity perspective highlights the value of sediment as a critical ecological resource to be managed jointly with flow to ensure the maintenance of vital riverine ecosystems.

Colorado, Utah↗