John R. Dingman | Search USGS

USGS2015

High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes

Context Predicting climate-driven species’ range shifts depends substantially on species’ exposure to climate change. Mountain landscapes contain a wide range of topoclimates and soil characteristics that are thought to mediate range shifts and buffer species’ exposure. Quantifying fine-scale patterns of exposure across mountainous terrain is a key step in understanding vulnerability of species to regional climate change. Objectives We demonstrated a transferable, flexible approach for mapping climate change exposure in a moisture-limited, mountainous California landscape across 4 climate change projections under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for mid-(2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099). Methods We produced a 149-year dataset (1951–2099) of modeled climatic water deficit (CWD), which is strongly associated with plant distributions, at 30-m resolution to map climate change exposure in the Tehachapi Mountains, California, USA. We defined climate change exposure in terms of departure from the 1951–1980 mean and historical range of variability in CWD in individual years and 3-year moving windows. Results Climate change exposure was generally greatest at high elevations across all future projections, though we encountered moderate topographic buffering on poleward-facing slopes. Historically dry lowlands demonstrated the least exposure to climate change. Conclusions In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2006

Theoretical and measured aeolian sand transport on a barrier island, Louisiana, USA

Over the past 100 years, the Isles Dernieres, a low lying barrier island chain along the coast of central Louisiana, U sa , has undergone more than 1 km of northward beach face retreat with the loss of 70% of its surface area. The erosion results from a long term relative sea level rise coupled with day to day wind and wave action that ultimately favours erosion over deposition. At a site in the central Isles Dernieres, 8 days of wind and beach profile measurements during the passage of one winter cold front documented aeolian erosion and deposition patterns under both onshore and offshore winds. For offshore winds, the theoretical erosion rate, based on wind shear velocity, closely matched the measured erosion rate; for onshore winds, the theoretical rate matched the measured rate only after being corrected by a factor that accounted for beach face morphology. In late February 1989, a strong cold front moved into coastal Louisiana. That cold front stalled over the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in 4 days of strong northerly winds at a study site on the Isles Dernieres. During those 4 days, the wind moved sand from the backshore to the upper beach face. When the cold front finally moved out of the area, the wind shifted to the south and decreased in strength. The onshore wind then restored some of the upper beach face sand to the backshore while increased wave activity moved the rest into the nearshore. The theoretical estimate of 1·28 m 3 m −1 for the rate of sand transport by the northerly wind compares well with the measured backshore erosion rate of 1·26 m 3 m −1 , which was determined by comparing beach profiles from the start and end of the period of northerly winds. The theoretical estimate of 0·04 m 3 m −1 for the rate of sand transport by the southerly wind, however, is notably less than the measured rate of 0·45 m 3 m −1 . The large discrepancy between the two rates can be explained by a difference in the shear velocity of the wind between the beach face, where the erosion occurred, and the backshore, where the wind stress was measured. Using an empirical relationship for the wind shear drag coefficient as a function of coastal environment, the theoretical estimate for the rate of sand transport by the southerly wind becomes 0·44 m 3 m −1 .

Louisiana↗