Geology topics

John M. Coluccy

Publications and source records attributed to John M. Coluccy.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Great Lakes mallard population dynamics

Breeding mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) populations in the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, USA) declined by >40% between 2000–2022 based on abundance data collected during spring aerial surveys. Mallards are an important waterfowl species in this region, where an estimated 60–80% of the mallard harvest is composed of locally banded birds. Extensive population monitoring datasets are available for mallards, presenting an opportunity to address complex questions such as estimating productivity at large spatial and temporal scales, identifying the effects of harvest on mallard demography, quantifying mechanisms for harvest compensation, and integrating multiple datasets to quantify the demographic drivers of population change. Our objective was to simultaneously examine factors affecting demographic parameters and their relative contribution to Great Lakes mallard population dynamics. We used 32 years of banding, band recovery, and aerial survey data collected for mallards from Michigan and Wisconsin to develop an integrated population model (IPM). We used age ratios at banding to estimate productivity, band recoveries from hunter-harvested birds to estimate annual survival and cause-specific mortality (i.e., harvest or non-hunting), and modeled abundance using aerial survey and demographic parameter estimates from 1991–2022. The IPM results indicated the decline in Great Lakes mallard abundance was caused by increased non-hunting mortality and a decline in productivity. Productivity varied spatially but temporally declined with the loss of Conservation Reserve Program area. Moreover, our productivity assessment provided evidence of density dependence in reproduction. Non-hunting mortality was 3.5–6.7 times and 1.3–4.2 times greater than harvest mortality for adult and juvenile female mallards, respectively, indicating environmental factors during spring and summer, not harvest, most greatly influenced annual mortality for female mallards. Our IPM reduced uncertainty in the factors affecting Great Lakes mallard population dynamics and indicated management actions that address non-hunting mortality and productivity would be most effective in increasing Great Lakes mallard abundance.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

Structured decision making to rank North American Wetland Conservation Act proposals within joint venture regions

The North American Wetlands Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 4401-4412) provided funding and administration for wetland management and conservation projects. The North American Wetland Conservation Fund, enabled in 1989 with the Act, provides financial resources. Resource allocation decisions are based, in part, on regional experts, particularly migratory bird Joint Ventures (JVs) (i.e., partnerships for cooperative planning and coordinated management of the continent’s waterfowl populations and habitats). The JVs evaluate funding proposals submitted with their respective regions each year and make funding recommendations to decision makers. Proposal evaluation procedures differ among JVs, however, it could be helpful to consider a transparent, repeatable, and data-driven framework for prioritization within regions. We used structured decision making and linear additive value models for ranking proposals within JV regions. We used two JVs as case studies and constructed two different value models using JV-specific objectives and weights. The framework was developed through a collaborative process with JV staff and stakeholders. Models were written in Microsoft Excel. To test these models, we used six NAWCA proposals submitted to the Upper Mississippi / Great Lakes Joint Venture in 2016 and seven proposals submitted to the Gulf Coast Joint Venture in 2017. We compared proposal ranks assigned by the value model to ranks assigned by each JV’s management board. Ranks assigned by the value model differed from ranks assigned by the board for the Upper Mississippi / Great Lakes Joint Venture, but not for the Gulf Coast Joint Venture. However, ranks from the value model could change markedly with different objective weights and value functions. The weighted linear value model was beneficial for ranking NAWCA proposals because it allows JVs to treat the ranking as a multiple objective problem and tailor the ranking to their specific regional concerns. We believe a structured decision making approach could be adapted by JV staff to facilitate a systematic and transparent process for proposal ranking by their management boards.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2021

Multicriteria decisions and portfolio analysis: Land acquisition for biological and social objectives

Resource allocation for land acquisition is a common multi-objective problem that involves complex trade-offs. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service currently uses the Targeted Resource Acquisition Comparison Tool (TRACT) to allocate funds from the Migratory Bird Conservation Fund (MBCF; established through the Migratory Bird Hunting and Conservation Act of 1934) for land acquisition based on cost-benefit analysis, regional priority rankings of candidate land parcels available for acquisition, and the overall biological contribution to duck population objectives. However, current policy encourages decision makers to consider societal and economic benefits of lands acquired, in addition to their biological benefits to waterfowl. These decisions about portfolio elements (i.e. individual land parcels) require an analysis of the difficult trade-offs among multiple objectives. In the last decade the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods has been instrumental in aiding decision makers with complex multi-objective decisions. In this study, we present an alternative approach to developing land acquisition portfolios using MCDA and Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). We describe the development of a portfolio decision analysis tool using constrained optimization for land acquisition decisions by the NWRS. We outline the decision framework, describe development of the prototype tool in Microsoft Excel, and test the results of the tool using land parcels submitted as candidates for MBCF funding in 2019. Our results indicate that the constrained optimization outperformed the traditional TRACT method and ad hoc portfolios developed using current NWRS criteria.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2019

Spatial integration of biological and social objectives to identify priority landscapes for waterfowl habitat conservation

Waterfowl population management and habitat conservation compose one of the oldest and most successful adaptive management frameworks in the world. Since its inception, the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) has emphasized strategically targeted conservation investments in regions that most affect waterfowl population dynamics. By 2012, regional conservation had progressively become more science-based and strategic: many migratory bird partnerships had initiated or completed projects on mapping and modeling waterfowl distribution and abundances using geospatial techniques. However, when developing a map depicting and titled “Areas of Greatest Continental Significance to North American Ducks, Geese, and Swans” for the 2012 NAWMP Revision, waterfowl professionals articulated the need for improved decision frameworks and use of consistent datasets for refining large-scale spatial products depicting priority areas for waterfowl and people. This report describes a framework for developing a spatial value model to support the identification of North American geographies of importance to waterfowl during the breeding and non-breeding periods and to resource users who could potentially support (financially and (or) politically) waterfowl habitat conservation. Objectives used to identify priority geographies were determined through a collaborative process of the NAWMP Science Support Team, Priority Landscapes Committee (PLC), and other experts in the fields of waterfowl biology and ecology, environmental science, and human dimensions. ArcGIS Desktop was used as the platform for managing, analyzing, combining and displaying the spatial data as well as producing new data through spatial analysis functions. Thirty-eight spatial layers were developed, and several composite spatially explicit products (maps of North America) were produced based on PLC recommendations. The composite products have extensive similarities to the 2012 NAWMP map depicting areas of greatest continental significance to North American waterfowl. There are also some differences, especially in regions of the high Arctic and in Mexico. These differences between spatial value model maps and the 2012 NAWMP output likely arose from inclusion of social objectives, reduced dependence on expert opinion to generate abundance estimates, lack of population surveys in some regions and availability of expanded survey data in other regions, and use of model-based waterfowl population estimates for some unsurveyed areas. The structured decision-making framework application in this study is discussed, and the appropriate use of the products and their limitations are outlined. Additionally, options for future improvements are presented by identifying gaps in data collection, waterfowl-habitat association assumptions, and uncertainties related to social objectives. These spatial products are intended for use by national, regional, and province/state level wildlife professionals to aid their decisions in targeting waterfowl habitat conservation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model

Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations is scenario planning. We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness. Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks. Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area. Synthesis and applications . Land-use change may increase waterfowl spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2016

Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of mallards in eastern Washington.

Washington↗

USGS2015

An empirical evaluation of landscape energetic models: Mallard and American black duck space use during the non-breeding period

Bird conservation Joint Ventures are collaborative partnerships between public agencies and private organizations that facilitate habitat management to support waterfowl and other bird populations. A subset of Joint Ventures has developed energetic carrying capacity models (ECCs) to translate regional waterfowl population goals into habitat objectives during the non-breeding period. Energetic carrying capacity models consider food biomass, metabolism, and available habitat to estimate waterfowl carrying capacity within an area. To evaluate Joint Venture ECCs in the context of waterfowl space use, we monitored 33 female mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and 55 female American black ducks ( A. rubripes ) using global positioning system satellite telemetry in the central and eastern United States. To quantify space use, we measured first-passage time (FPT: time required for an individual to transit across a circle of a given radius) at biologically relevant spatial scales for mallards (3.46 km) and American black ducks (2.30 km) during the non-breeding period, which included autumn migration, winter, and spring migration. We developed a series of models to predict FPT using Joint Venture ECCs and compared them to a biological null model that quantified habitat composition and a statistical null model, which included intercept and random terms. Energetic carrying capacity models predicted mallard space use more efficiently during autumn and spring migrations, but the statistical null was the top model for winter. For American black ducks, ECCs did not improve predictions of space use; the biological null was top ranked for winter and the statistical null was top ranked for spring migration. Thus, ECCs provided limited insight into predicting waterfowl space use during the non-breeding season. Refined estimates of spatial and temporal variation in food abundance, habitat conditions, and anthropogenic disturbance will likely improve ECCs and benefit conservation planners in linking non-breeding waterfowl habitat objectives with distribution and population parameters. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arkansas, Delaware, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jerse↗

USGS2014

Estimating habitat carrying capacity for migrating and wintering waterfowl: Considerations, pitfalls and improvements

Population-based habitat conservation planning for migrating and wintering waterfowl in North America is carried out by habitat Joint Venture (JV) initiatives and is based on the premise that food can limit demography (i.e. food limitation hypothesis). Consequently, planners use bioenergetic models to estimate food (energy) availability and population-level energy demands at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, and translate these values into regional habitat objectives. While simple in principle, there are both empirical and theoretical challenges associated with calculating energy supply and demand including: 1) estimating food availability, 2) estimating the energy content of specific foods, 3) extrapolating site-specific estimates of food availability to landscapes for focal species, 4) applicability of estimates from a single species to other species, 5) estimating resting metabolic rate, 6) estimating cost of daily behaviours, and 7) estimating costs of thermoregulation or tissue synthesis. Most models being used are daily ration models (DRMs) whose set of simplifying assumptions are well established and whose use is widely accepted and feasible given the empirical data available to populate such models. However, DRMs do not link habitat objectives to metrics of ultimate ecological importance such as individual body condition or survival, and largely only consider food-producing habitats. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a possible alternative for creating more biologically realistic models under some conditions; however, ABMs require different types of empirical inputs, many of which have yet to be estimated for key North American waterfowl. Decisions about how JVs can best proceed with habitat conservation would benefit from the use of sensitivity analyses that could identify the empirical and theoretical uncertainties that have the greatest influence on efforts to estimate habitat carrying capacity. Development of ABMs at restricted, yet biologically relevant spatial scales, followed by comparisons of their outputs to those generated from more simplistic, deterministic models can provide a means of assessing degrees of dissimilarity in how alternative models describe desired landscape conditions for migrating and wintering waterfowl.

Wildfowl↗