Geology topics
Publications and source records attributed to Joan S. Gomberg.
Subduction zones contain many of Earth’s most remarkable geologic structures, from the deepest oceanic trenches to glacier-covered mountains and steaming volcanoes. These environments formed through spectacular events: Nature’s largest earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are born here.
Mount St. Helens began erupting in late 2004 following an 18 year quiescence. Swarms of repeating earthquakes accompanied the extrusion of a mostly solid dacite dome over the next 4 years. In some cases the waveforms from these earthquakes evolved slowly, likely reflecting changes in the properties of the volcano that affect seismic wave propagation. We use coda-wave interferometry to quantify small changes in seismic velocity structure (usually <1%) between two similar earthquakes and employed waveforms from several hundred families of repeating earthquakes together to create a continuous function of velocity change observed at permanent stations operated within 20 km of the volcano. The high rate of earthquakes allowed tracking of velocity changes on an hourly time scale. Changes in velocity were largest near the newly extruding dome and likely related to shallow deformation as magma first worked its way to the surface. We found strong correlation between velocity changes and the inverse of real-time seismic amplitude measurements during the first 3 weeks of activity, suggesting that fluctuations of pressure in the shallow subsurface may have driven both seismicity and velocity changes. Velocity changes during the remainder of the eruption likely result from a complex interplay of multiple effects and are not well explained by any single factor alone, highlighting the need for complementary geophysical data when interpreting velocity changes.
This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.
Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.
We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry.
In September 2004, Mount St. Helens volcano erupted after nearly 18 years of quiescence. However, it is unclear from the limited geophysical observations when or if the magma chamber replenished following the 1980–1986 eruptions in the years before the 2004–2008 extrusive eruption. We use coda wave interferometry with repeating earthquakes to measure small changes in the velocity structure of Mount St. Helens volcano that might indicate magmatic intrusion. By combining observations of relative velocity changes from many closely located earthquake sources, we solve for a continuous function of velocity changes with time. We find that seasonal effects dominate the relative velocity changes. Seismicity rates and repeating earthquake occurrence also vary seasonally; therefore, velocity changes and seismicity are likely modulated by snow loading, fluid saturation, and/or changes in groundwater level. We estimate hydrologic effects impart stress changes on the order of tens of kilopascals within the upper 4 km, resulting in annual velocity variations of 0.5 to 1%. The largest nonseasonal change is a decrease in velocity at the time of the deep M w  = 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We find no systematic velocity changes during the most likely times of intrusions, consistent with a lack of observable surface deformation. We conclude that if replenishing intrusions occurred, they did not alter seismic velocities where this technique is sensitive due to either their small size or the finite compressibility of the magma chamber. We interpret the observed velocity changes and shallow seasonal seismicity as a response to small stress changes in a shallow, pressurized system.
The impacts and opportunities that result when low-probability moderate earthquakes strike an urban area similar to many throughout the US were vividly conveyed in a one-day workshop in which social and Earth scientists, public officials, engineers, and an emergency manager shared their experiences of the earthquake sequence that struck the city of Christchurch and surrounding Canterbury region of New Zealand in 2010-2011. Without question, the earthquake sequence has had unprecedented impacts in all spheres on New Zealand society, locally to nationally--10% of the country's population was directly impacted and losses total 8-10% of their GDP. The following paragraphs present a few lessons from Christchurch.
The 2012 M 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake radiated waves that likely dynamically triggered the 2013 M 7.5 Craig earthquake, setting two precedents. First, the triggered earthquake is the largest dynamically triggered shear failure event documented to date. Second, the events highlight a connection between geologic structure, sedimentary troughs that act as waveguides, and triggering probability. The Haida Gwaii earthquake excited extraordinarily large waves within and beyond the Queen Charlotte Trough, which propagated well into mainland Alaska and likely triggering the Craig earthquake along the way. Previously, focusing and associated dynamic triggering have been attributed to unpredictable source effects. This case suggests that elevated dynamic triggering probabilities may exist along the many structures where sedimentary troughs overlie major faults, such as subduction zones’ accretionary prisms and transform faults’ axial valleys. Although data are sparse, I find no evidence of accelerating seismic activity in the vicinity of the Craig rupture between it and the Haida Gwaii earthquake.
During the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, gliding harmonic tremor occurred prominently before six nearly consecutive explosions during the second half of the eruptive sequence. The fundamental frequency repeatedly glided upward from < 1 Hz to as high as 30 Hz in less than 10 min, followed by a relative seismic quiescence of 10 to 60 s immediately prior to explosion. High frequency (5 to 20 Hz) gliding returned during the extrusive phase, and lasted for 20 min to 3 h at a time. Although harmonic tremor is not uncommon at volcanoes, tremor at such high frequencies is a rare observation. These frequencies approach or exceed the plausible upper limits of many models that have been suggested for volcanic tremor. We also analyzed the behavior of a swarm of repeating earthquakes that immediately preceded the first instance of pre-explosion gliding harmonic tremor. We find that these earthquakes share several traits with upward gliding harmonic tremor, and favor the explanation that the gliding harmonic tremor at Redoubt Volcano is created by the superposition of increasingly frequent and regular, repeating stick–slip earthquakes through the Dirac comb effect.
[1] We explore the physical conditions that enable triggering of nonvolcanic tremor and earthquakes by considering local seismic activity on Vancouver Island, British Columbia during and immediately after the arrival of large-amplitude seismic waves from 30 teleseismic and 17 regional or local earthquakes. We identify tremor triggered by four of the teleseismic earthquakes. The close temporal and spatial proximity of triggered tremor to ambient tremor and aseismic slip indicates that when a fault is close to or undergoing failure, it is particularly susceptible to triggering of further events. The amplitude of the triggering waves also influences the likelihood of triggering both tremor and earthquakes such that large amplitude waves triggered tremor in the absence of detectable aseismic slip or ambient tremor. Tremor and energy radiated from regional/local earthquakes share the same frequency passband so that tremor cannot be identified during these smaller, more frequent events. We confidently identify triggered local earthquakes following only one teleseism, that with the largest amplitude, and four regional or local events that generated vigorous aftershock sequences in their immediate vicinity. Earthquakes tend to be triggered in regions different from tremor and with high ambient seismicity rates. We also note an interesting possible correlation between large teleseismic events and episodic tremor and slip (ETS) episodes, whereby ETS events that are “late” and have built up more stress than normal are susceptible to triggering by the slight nudge of the shaking from a large, distant event, while ETS events that are “early” or “on time” are not.
We show clear evidence of non-volcanic tremor triggered by 2002 Mw7.8 Denali Fault earthquake near Parkfield. Triggered tremor is identified as bursts of high-frequency (∼2–8 Hz), non-impulsive seismic energy whose envelope is coherent among many stations and has the same periodicity as the passing surface waves. The tremor originates from at least three hypocenters near the San Andreas fault with differing frictional regimes, two in the creeping section and the other where the San Andreas is transitional between creeping and locked. All the sources originate below the seismogenic zone, suggesting that transitional frictional properties are necessary conditions for tremor generation. Tremor is excited by the Love waves when the San Andreas is sheared in a right-lateral sense, encouraging slip, and is absent when the San Andreas is sheared in a left-lateral sense, consistent with a simple frictional response to the driving stress.
An M d 4.5 earthquake located ∼12 km east of Mount Rainier occurred on 8 October 2006 at 02:48 UTC ( figure 1 ). Although not large enough to be damaging or of major tectonic significance, a summary description of the earthquake is warranted because of its proximity to Mount Rainier, and because earthquakes of M d ≥ 4.5 are relatively rare in this region. Previous events of M d ≥ 4.5 have occurred approximately once a decade within a radius of ∼60 km from this mainshock, with the closest and most recent prior earthquake being an M d 4.9 event located 46 km to the southwest in 1989. Magnitudes in this paper refer to the coda duration magnitude determined by the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) ( Crosson 1972 ). We refer to the 2006 event as the “Cowlitz Chimneys” earthquake because it occurred beneath the Cowlitz Chimneys, a prominent ridge in Mount Rainier National Park. This paper describes the mainshock's focal mechanism and its aftershock distribution. The inferred source mechanism, its ordinary aftershock sequence, and the lack of significant triggered seismicity near the volcanic edifice lead us to conclude that this was a regular tectonic crustal earthquake rather than one related to volcanic processes.
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High-resolution seismic reflection profiles from Limo??n Bay, Republic of Panama, were acquired as part of a seismic hazard investigation of the northern Panama Canal region. The seismic profiles image gently west and northwest dipping strata of upper Miocene Gatu??n Formation, unconformably overlain by a thin (<20 m) sequence of Holocene muds. Numerous faults, which have northeast trends where they can be correlated between seismic profiles, break the upper Miocene strata. Some of the faults have normal displacement, but on many faults, the amount and type of displacement cannot be determined. The age of displacement is constrained to be Late Miocene or younger, and regional geologic considerations suggest Pliocene movement. The faults may be part of a more extensive set of north- to northeast-trending faults and fractures in the canal region of central Panama. Low topography and the faults in the canal area may be the result of the modern regional stress field, bending of the Isthmus of Panama, shearing in eastern Panama, or minor deformation of the Panama Block above the Caribbean subduction zone. For seismic hazard analysis of the northern canal area, these faults led us to include a source zone of shallow faults proximal to northern canal facilities. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We examine the hypothesis that dynamic deformations associated with seismic waves trigger earthquakes in many tectonic environments. Our analysis focuses on seismicity at close range (within the aftershock zone), complementing published studies of long-range triggering. Our results suggest that dynamic triggering is not confined to remote distances or to geothermal and volcanic regions. Long unilaterally propagating ruptures may focus radiated dynamic deformations in the propagation direction. Therefore, we expect seismicity triggered dynamically by a directive rupture to occur asymmetrically, with a majority of triggered earthquakes in the direction of rupture propagation. Bilaterally propagating ruptures also may be directive, and we propose simple criteria for assessing their directivity. We compare the inferred rupture direction and observed seismicity rate change following 15 earthquakes (M 5.7 to M 8.1) that occurred in California and Idaho in the United States, the Gulf of Aqaba, Syria, Guatemala, China, New Guinea, Turkey, Japan, Mexico, and Antarctica. Nine of these mainshocks had clearly directive, unilateral ruptures. Of these nine, seven apparently induced an asymmetric increase in seismicity rate that correlates with the rupture direction. The two exceptions include an earthquake preceded by a comparable-magnitude event on a conjugate fault and another for which data limitations prohibited conclusive results. Similar (but weaker) correlations were found for the bilaterally rupturing earthquakes we studied. Although the static stress change also may trigger seismicity, it and the seismicity it triggers are expected to be similarly asymmetric only if the final slip is skewed toward the rupture terminus. For several of the directive earthquakes, we suggest that the seismicity rate change correlates better with the dynamic stress field than the static stress change.
A method of estimating the complete time-varying dynamic formation field from commonly available three-component single station seismic data has been developed and applied to study the relationship between dynamic deformation and ground failures and structural damage using observations from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Estimates from throughout the epicentral region indicate that the horizontal strains exceed the vertical ones by more than a factor of two. The largest strains (exceeding ∼100 pstrain) correlate with regions of greatest ground failure. There is a poor correlation between structural damage and peak strain amplitudes. The smallest strains,∼35 pstrain, are estimated in regions of no damage or ground failure. Estimates in the two regions with most severe and well mapped permanent deformation, Potrero Canyon and the Granada-Mission Hills regions, exhibit the largest strains; peak horizontal strains estimates in these regions equal ∼1351 and ∼229 μstrain respectively. Of note, the dynamic principal strain axes have strikers consistent with the permanent failure features suggesting that, while gravity, sub-surface materials, and hydrologic conditions undoubtedly played fundamental roles in determining where and what types of failures occurred, the dynamic deformation field may have been favorably sized and oriented to initiate failure processes. These results support other studies that conclude that the permanent deformation resulted from ground shaking, rather than from static strains associated with primary or secondary faulting. They also suggest that such an analysis, either using data or theoretical calculations, may enable observations of paleo-ground failure to be used as quantitative constraints on the size and geometry of previous earthquakes.
The dynamic strains associated with seismic waves may play a significant role in earthquake triggering, hydrological and magmatic changes, earthquake damage, and ground failure. We determine how accurately dynamic strains may be estimated from seismometer data and elastic-wave theory by comparing such estimated strains with strains measured on a three-component long-base strainmeter system at Piñon Flat, California. We quantify the uncertainties and errors through cross-spectral analysis of data from three regional earthquakes (the M 0 = 4 × 10 17 N-m St. George, Utah; M 0 = 4 × 10 17 N-m Little Skull Mountain, Nevada; and M 0 = 1 × 10 19 N-m Northridge, California, events at distances of 470, 345, and 206 km, respectively). Our analysis indicates that in most cases the phase of the estimated strain matches that of the observed strain quite well (to within the uncertainties, which are about ±0.1 to ±0.2 cycles). However, the amplitudes are often systematically off, at levels exceeding the uncertainties (about 20%); in one case, the predicted strain amplitudes are nearly twice those observed. We also observe significant ɛ φφ strains ( φ = tangential direction), which should be zero theoretically; in the worst case, the rms ɛ φφ strain exceeds the other nonzero components. These nonzero ɛ φφ strains cannot be caused by deviations of the surface-wave propagation paths from the expected azimuth or by departures from the plane-wave approximation. We believe that distortion of the strain field by topography or material heterogeneities give rise to these complexities.