Geology topics

Jesse L. Kolar

Publications and source records attributed to Jesse L. Kolar.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Phenological flexibility in nesting grassland birds over a half century informs timing of management

The timing of biological events for wildlife species reflects and influences ecological and evolutionary processes and helps guide management actions to meet conservation objectives. Climate change may cause phenological shifts across trophic levels and ecosystems, which can have broad ecological impacts. Shifts may also result in mistiming between management practices based on historical conditions and current biological events, reducing the effectiveness of natural resource management and conservation efforts. We analyzed nesting phenology patterns over recent decades across North America for 44 species of grassland-nesting birds, including waterfowl, upland gamebirds, shorebirds, and passerines, many of which have experienced precipitous population declines. Understanding nesting phenologies of these species is important to their conservation, as grassland management activities often conflict with reproductive periods leading to high nest and young mortality. We compiled a dataset of over 172,000 nest records spanning five decades and evaluated environmental factors influencing long-term shifts and short-term flexibility in nesting phenology. We found considerable variation in responses among species, with differences in both direction and magnitude of spatiotemporal effects on nest initiation dates. Notably, the community-level nesting season lengthened over time, but shifts exhibited spatial heterogeneity within this community of grassland birds. Nesting dates shifted asymmetrically across the breeding season with differential changes in early, peak, and late nesting dates whereas long-term changes were mediated by weather and geographic gradients. For example, nest initiation was earlier in warmer and wetter years. By applying a quantile-based analysis, we provide estimates of the full nesting period that could serve as a flexible tool for scheduling monitoring efforts and balancing management and human activities with periods of reduced nesting activity. Our collaborative effort illustrates the challenges and opportunities of collecting long-term data on avian communities necessary for answering questions across large regions but highlights the value of research coordination for bird conservation.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2026

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus )—Updated 1960–2025

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of State and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population analysis provides State and Federal land and wildlife managers with the best available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2025. Included in this report are methodological updates to period terminology, expanded reporting of trends across all nadir-to-nadir combinations, and revised extirpation probability estimation that utilizes every historic population nadir to forecast abundance. Each of these updates are detailed under individual Modification sections. Additional updates include simulation analyses that evaluate the effects of progressively longer exclusions of Wyoming lek count data (Wyoming Game and Fish Department has not provided access to a complete lek count data set since 2023) on trends, extirpation probabilities, and targeted annual warning system signals. State-space models estimated a 2.7-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1–7, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. The average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.0 and 3.5 percent. Cumulative declines were 42.4, 61.7, and 77.9 percent range-wide in Period 5–7 (19 years [two oscillations]), Period 3–7 (36 years [four oscillations]), and Period 1–7 (55 years), respectively. Between 2024 and 2025 (1-year, non-trend timeframe), range-wide population size declined 1.9 percent ( 95-percent credible interval [CRI]= −4.71–1.48). Simulations of missing data from Wyoming showed that progressively longer gaps produced more negative trend estimates and higher extirpation probabilities, predominantly within Wyoming. Effects on targeted annual warning system signals were more nuanced, with missed warnings occurring inside and outside Wyoming and false warnings occurring predominantly within Wyoming.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗

USGS2025

Conservation translocation immediately reverses decline in imperiled sage-grouse populations

Conservation translocation (hereafter translocation), the intentional movement of organisms from one location to another as a management tool, can be an extremely useful conservation action to increase the abundance of isolated populations following successful habitat restoration. However, managers seek to weigh the benefits against costs to the source population from which individuals are removed. Using two small and imperiled greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) populations, we demonstrated the usefulness of translocation as a conservation management tool and the value of evaluating the potential consequences of translocation action. Using integrated population models and a before-after-control-impact (BACI) design, we quantified the extent to which translocation influenced the finite rate of change ( λ "> λ ) of apparent abundance ( N "> N ) in both reinforced and source populations. We also assessed changes in underlying demographic rates in one population, allowing for identification of the specific mechanisms causing differences in population trends following translocation. In both reinforced populations, λ ̂ "> λ̂ substantially increased following translocation. In the population for which we had sufficient demographic data, the increase in λ ̂ "> λ̂ resulted from a 179 % increase in egg hatchability following reinforcement. In one translocation, we did not observe adverse effects on the source populations. The source population for the second translocation exhibited reduced population growth rates after translocation, although BACI ratios indicated causes for population declines independent of translocation effects, highlighting the need to investigate processes together with observed patterns. Overall, we demonstrated the ability to rescue isolated sage-grouse populations via translocation, preserving population viability and metapopulation persistence.

California, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, South D↗

USGS2021

Behavioral state-dependent habitat selection and implications for animal translocations

Post-release monitoring of translocated animals is often used to inform future translocation protocols. Quantifying habitat selection of translocated individuals may help identify features that characterize good settlement habitat and thus inform the choice of future release sites. However, translocated animals often undergo post-release behavioural modification, and their habitat selection may vary depending on the underlying behavioural state. To investigate this, we analysed behavioural state-dependent habitat selection in female greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus translocated from Wyoming to North Dakota, USA, using Hidden Markov Models combined with Integrated Step Selection Analysis. We segmented individual trajectories into behavioural phases corresponding to an exploratory state, characterized by broad and directed movements, and a restricted state, characterized by short and tortuous movements. Then, we quantified habitat selection in each state while accounting for seasonality and individual reproductive status. While in the exploratory state, sage-grouse exhibited natal habitat preference induction by selecting for high sagebrush cover, which is typical of their natal area in Wyoming but not of the release area in North Dakota. In the restricted state, sage-grouse selected for gentle topography and also adjusted their habitat selection to constraints imposed by seasonality and reproductive needs by selecting for high herbaceous cover during brood rearing. Synthesis and applications . Habitat selection of translocated sage-grouse differed between the post-release exploration and the settlement phase. Features selected after settling, not during exploration, are likely indicative of suitable settlement habitat. Our results suggest that areas characterized by gentle topography and high herbaceous cover are well-suited as release sites for sage-grouse translocated during the summer, especially brood-rearing females, and that sagebrush cover may not be a critical factor in determining the appropriateness of release sites for sage-grouse in North Dakota. Our findings highlight the need to consider behaviour when using habitat selection estimates to inform the choice of future release sites.

North Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Synthesizing and analyzing long-term monitoring data: A greater sage-grouse case study

Long-term monitoring of natural resources is imperative for increasing the understanding of ecosystem processes, services, and how to manage those ecosystems to maintain or improve function. Challenges with using these data may occur because methods of monitoring changed over time, multiple organizations collect and manage data differently, and monetary resources fluctuate, affecting many aspects of data. Because many species respond to changes in habitat conditions and predator-prey relationships across different spatial scales that span management boundaries, greater efforts for collaborating are essential. We demonstrate the challenges and methods for standardizing greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) long-term monitoring data across the species range in the western United States to inform population modeling needs identified by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies. We used automated and repeatable methods of standardizing data via custom open-source software ( grsg_lekdb ) to improve the scientific integrity of future sage-grouse population assessments within and among states. Data standardization included reconciling uses of different terminology and expunging unusable data, resulting in the removal of 26% of data records due to database insertion errors and modifications to >1 million values to correct formatting and typing errors. Our approaches maximized the inclusion of usable data and identified data that could inform detection probabilities, population trends, and monitoring guidelines. Using sage-grouse databases as an example, we identified the importance of data management and how quality assurance and quality control measures can improve the usefulness of these data for future research needs. Our methods of using informatics and concluding recommendations can support similar endeavors of flora and fauna monitoring programs, whether those efforts are to use existing data or support new monitoring programs.

Ecological Informatics↗