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Jennifer Moore

Publications and source records attributed to Jennifer Moore.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Success of restoration strategies in preventing extirpation of 2 critically endangered coral species

An unprecedented marine heatwave in 2023 caused widespread coral bleaching and mortality throughout the Caribbean. In the Florida Keys (USA), 2 foundation species, elkhorn coral ( Acropora palmata ) and staghorn coral ( Acropora cervicornis ), were severely affected. These species have been the primary focus of reef restoration in Florida for decades. Substantial losses of these species occurred in outplanted populations, in ocean-based nurseries, and among remnant wild colonies, leading to uncertainty over their future in the Florida Keys, given recent observed trends in climate conditions. However, the past 2 decades of restoration activity created a community of experts, a network of ocean-based and land-based coral-rearing infrastructure, and 2 independent land-based coral gene banks that prevented regional extirpation and preserved much of the genetic richness of these critically endangered coral species. Without the past decades of effort and the emergency response associated with the 2023 bleaching event, Florida acroporids would largely have been lost. This outcome afforded by the restoration network in Florida demonstrates the value of proactively establishing resources prior to major disturbances. We identified several critical strategies that, in the context of existing climate change, are preventing the extirpation of coral species in Florida, including extending collaborative restoration efforts to solidify a network of trained experts; establishing trust-focused relationships among management agencies and restoration groups; testing direct interventions to reduce light and temperature stress early during thermal anomalies; developing redundant ocean-based and land-based nurseries; and establishing living coral gene banks prior to major threats to prevent the extirpation of coral species.

Florida

Heat-driven functional extinction of Caribbean Acropora corals from Florida's Coral Reef

In 2023, a record-setting marine heat wave triggered the ninth mass coral bleaching event on Florida’s Coral Reef (FCR). We examined spatial patterns of heat exposure along the ~560-kilometer length of FCR and the mortality of two ecologically important, critically endangered reef-building corals. Sea surface temperatures were ≥31°C for an average of 40.7 days, leading to heat exposures 2.2- to fourfold higher than all prior years on record. In the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas, 97.8 to 100% of the Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis colonies died. Mortality was lower offshore southeast Florida (37.9%), reflecting cooler temperatures in this region. Since the late 1970s, multiple stressors had already reduced the ecological relevance of Acropora in Florida, but the 2023 heat wave marks their functional extinction from FCR.

Florida

An approach to modeling abundance of marine wildlife over space and time using unstructured aerial surveys

Estimating spatial and temporal patterns in abundance is often a goal of ecological studies and can be useful for informing management decisions, such as determining the optimal placement of wildlife protection zones. However, estimating abundance can be difficult in practice, especially over large areas, because of imperfect detection, where individuals are present but not detected because of either availability or observer error. Several methods for estimating abundance that account for imperfect detection exist but can be logistically challenging to implement. We present a simpler approach to some of the more commonly used techniques for estimating the abundance of marine wildlife over space and time from unstructured aerial surveys. This approach combines a spatial model for count data with auxiliary information on detection probability obtained from small-scale or previous studies. We employ generalized linear models and generalized additive models with spatial habitat covariates to illustrate this approach using maximum-likelihood with free, open-source statistical software. This framework is intended to be accessible and flexible, requiring lower survey costs and less computation time than other alternatives for estimating abundance. Indeed, our simulation results show that this approach can reduce computation times, while appropriately characterizing uncertainty, compared to a Bayesian approach. We also present R code for our approach using an example of estimating Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) abundance in Indian River County in Florida, USA. This approach could be applied to other study systems and marine wildlife species using unstructured aerial surveys.

Florida

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases

Emerging diseases can have devastating consequences for wildlife and require a rapid response. A critical first step towards developing appropriate management is identifying the etiology of the disease, which can be difficult to determine, particularly early in emergence. Gathering and synthesizing existing information about potential disease causes, by leveraging expert knowledge or relevant existing studies, provides a principled approach to quickly inform decision-making and management efforts. Additionally, updating the current state of knowledge as more information becomes available over time can reduce scientific uncertainty and lead to substantial improvement in the decision-making process and the application of management actions that incorporate and adapt to newly acquired scientific understanding. Here we present a rapid prototyping method for quantifying belief weights for competing hypotheses about the etiology of disease using a combination of formal expert elicitation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We illustrate the application of this approach for investigating the etiology of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) and discuss the opportunities and challenges of this approach for addressing emergent diseases. Lastly, we detail how our work may apply to other pressing management or conservation problems that require quick responses. We found the rapid prototyping methods to be an efficient and rapid means to narrow down the number of potential hypotheses, synthesize current understanding, and help prioritize future studies and experiments. This approach is rapid by providing a snapshot assessment of the current state of knowledge. It can also be updated periodically (e.g., annually) to assess changes in belief weights over time as scientific understanding increases. Synthesis and applications: The rapid prototyping approaches demonstrated here can be used to combine knowledge from multiple experts and/or studies to help with fast decision-making needed for urgent conservation issues including emerging diseases and other management problems that require rapid responses. These approaches can also be used to adjust belief weights over time as studies and expert knowledge accumulate and can be a helpful tool for adapting management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management