Geology topics

Jennifer M. Cartwright

Publications and source records attributed to Jennifer M. Cartwright.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century

Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought’s impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e., ecological transformation). In the present article, we clarify how drought can lead to transformation across a wide variety of ecosystems including forests, woodlands, and grasslands. Specifically, we describe how climate change alters drought regimes and how this translates to impacts on plant population growth, either directly or through drought's interactions with factors such as land management, biotic interactions, and other disturbances. We emphasize how interactions among mechanisms can inhibit postdrought recovery and can shift trajectories toward alternate states. Providing a holistic picture of how drought initiates long-term change supports the development of risk assessments, predictive models, and management strategies, enhancing preparedness for a complex and growing challenge.

BioScience↗

USGS2022

A forested wetland at a climate-induced tipping-point: 17-year demographic evidence of widespread tree recruitment failure

Regeneration and survival of forested wetlands are affected by environmental variables related to the hydrologic regime. Climate change, specifically alterations to precipitation patterns, may have outsized effects on these forests. In Tennessee, USA, precipitation has increased by 15% since 1960. The goal of our research was to assess the evidence for whether this change in precipitation patterns resulted in shorter growing seasons and recruitment failure in common canopy trees for a forest wetland. In 2001 and 2018, the density of Quercus lyrata (overcup oak), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Quercus phellos (willow oak), and Betula nigra (river birch) seedling, sapling and adult density were mapped in an area of 2.3 ha within a seasonally flooded karst depression. Overall, the percentage of the growing season experiencing inundation was 26% greater in the deep than in shallow areas between 2001 and 2018. Saplings and small adults of all four species were restricted to shallow areas, and their abundance has declined substantially. Overcup oak and sweetgum individuals that were recruited into the adult life history stage were repelled from the deep zone. Overcup oak and sweetgum adults experienced lower mortality across the 2.3-ha study area (11% and 26%, respectively) relative to willow oak (56%) and river birch (64%) over the 17-year study. Growing-season inundation showed no relation to mortality in adult sweetgum and willow oak, a positive relation to mortality among adult river birch across size classes and among small adult overcup oak, and an inverse relation to mortality among large adult overcup oak. In shallow regions, overcup oak and sweetgum adults had greater basal area increment relative to the intermediate and deep regions of the pond. Results of hydrologic modeling for the study area, based on rainfall and temperature records covering 1855–2019, show ponding durations after 1970 considerably longer than the historical baseline, across ponding-depth classes. Our results strongly suggest that climate change is a driving factor suppressing tree regeneration since 1970 in this seasonally flooded karst depression.

Tennessee↗

USGS2021

Identifying climate-resistant vernal pools: Hydrologic refugia for amphibian reproduction under droughts and climate change

Vernal pools of the northeastern United States provide important breeding habitat for amphibians but may be sensitive to droughts and climate change. These seasonal wetlands typically fill by early spring and dry by mid-to-late summer. Because climate change may produce earlier and stronger growing-season evapotranspiration combined with increasing droughts and shifts in precipitation timing, management concerns include the possibility that some pools will increasingly become dry earlier in the year, potentially interfering with amphibian life-cycle completion. In this context, a subset of pools that continue to provide wetland habitat later into the year under relatively dry conditions might function as ecohydrologic refugia, potentially supporting species persistence even as summer conditions become warmer and droughts more frequent. We used approximately 3,000 field observations of inundation from 449 pools to train machine-learning models that predict the likelihood of pool inundation based on pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and soil, geologic, and landcover attributes. Models were then used to generate predictions of pool wetness across five seasonal time points, three short-term weather scenarios, and four sets of downscaled climate projections. Model outputs are available through a website allowing users to choose the inundation thresholds, time points, weather scenarios, and future climate projections most relevant to their management needs. Together with long-term monitoring of individual pools at the site scale, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify which pools may be most likely to function as ecohydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2021

Increasing hydroperiod in a karst-depression wetland based on 165 years of simulated daily water levels

The hydrology of seasonally inundated depression wetlands can be highly sensitive to climatic fluctuations. Hydroperiod—the number of days per year that a wetland is inundated—is often of primary ecological importance in these systems and can vary interannually depending on climate conditions. In this study we re-examined an existing hydrologic model to simulate daily water levels in Sinking Pond, a 35-hectare seasonally inundated karst-depression wetland in Tennessee, USA. We recalibrated the model using 22 years of climate and water-level observations and used the recalibrated model to reconstruct (hindcast) daily water levels over a 165-year period from 1855 to 2019. A trend analysis of the climatic data and reconstructed water levels over the hindcasting period indicated substantial increases in pond hydroperiod over time, apparently related to increasing regional precipitation. Wetland hydroperiod increased on average by 5.9 days per decade between 1920 and 2019, with a breakpoint around the year 1970. Hydroperiod changes of this magnitude may have profound consequences for wetland ecology, such as a transition from a forested wetland to a mostly open-water pond at the Sinking Pond site. More broadly, this study illustrates the needs for robust hydrologic models of depression wetlands and for consideration of model transferability in time (i.e., hindcasting and forecasting) under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions. As climate change is expected to influence water cycles, hydrologic processes, and wetland ecohydrology in the coming decades, hydrologic model projections may become increasingly important to detect, anticipate, and potentially mitigate ecological impacts in depression wetland ecosystems.

Tennessee↗

USGS2021

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2021

Science needs of southeastern grassland species of conservation concern: A framework for species status assessments

The unglaciated southeastern United States is a biodiversity hotspot, with a disproportionate amount of this biodiversity concentrated in grasslands. Like most hotspots, the Southeast is also threatened by human activities, with the total reduction of southeastern grasslands estimated as 90 percent (upwards to 100 percent for some types) and with many threats escalating today. This report summarizes the results of a multistakeholder workshop organized by the Southeastern Grasslands Initiative and the U.S. Geological Survey, held in January 2020 to provide a scientific needs assessment to help inform the Species Status Assessment (SSA) process under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, with a focus on grassland species and communities of conservation concern in the southeastern United States. This report reviews the ecology of southeastern grasslands, including influences on their origin, maintenance, and high species richness and endemism; presents findings from the workshop; and discusses science questions, hypotheses, and possibilities for future research projects to help fill key knowledge gaps. Participants in the January 2020 workshop, representing diverse expertise in various topics in southeastern grassland ecology, were tasked with identifying major threats to grassland species in the Southeast as well as potential ways to make the SSA process more efficient and effective. An underlying assumption and starting place for workshop discussion was that an ecosystem-based approach to the SSA process is more cost-efficient than a species-by-species approach, in large part because many species with similar biological requirements can be addressed by the same actions. Nevertheless, one partner in this effort, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, does require specific attention be given to taxa that have been petitioned for Federal listing, though as often as possible these taxa are considered alongside a larger group of priority taxa with an ecosystem approach. For group discussions, workshop participants followed a modified “World Café” method, a structured conversational approach for knowledge sharing. Group discussions focused on five categories of threats to grassland communities and species: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional population connectivity; (2) climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, including intensity and seasonality, and impacts on soil moisture, groundwater levels, and other ecosystem parameters; (3) changes to disturbance regimes, as influenced by climate and land-use change, extinctions, and human attitudes and behaviors; (4) invasive species (not limited to nonnative species); and (5) localized or subregional impacts such as sea-level rise. In addition to group discussions, workshop participants—as well as other grassland experts who were unable to attend the workshop—completed a preworkshop survey concerning challenges and opportunities for grassland conservation. Findings reported here under each of these topics represent ideas, problems, hypotheses, and questions identified by a diverse community of grassland managers and researchers which may be addressed by future research and monitoring in southeastern grassland ecosystems to help guide science-based conservation of grassland-dependent species.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗

USGS2020

Topographic, soil, and climate drivers of drought sensitivity in forests and shrublands of the Pacific Northwest, USA

Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with major impacts to ecosystems globally. Broad-scale assessments of vegetation responses to drought are needed to anticipate, manage, and potentially mitigate climate-change effects on ecosystems. We quantified the drought sensitivity of vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA, as the percent reduction in vegetation greenness under droughts relative to baseline moisture conditions. At a regional scale, shrub-steppe ecosystems—with drier climates and lower biomass—showed greater drought sensitivity than conifer forests. However, variability in drought sensitivity was considerable within biomes and within ecosystems and was mediated by landscape topography, climate, and soil characteristics. Drought sensitivity was generally greater in areas with higher elevation, drier climate, and greater soil bulk density. Ecosystems with high drought sensitivity included dry forests along ecotones to shrublands, Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and cold upland sagebrush communities. In forests, valley bottoms and areas with low soil bulk density and high soil available water capacity showed reduced drought sensitivity, suggesting their potential as drought refugia. These regional-scale drought-sensitivity patterns discerned from remote sensing can complement plot-scale studies of plant physiological responses to drought to help inform climate-adaptation planning as drought conditions intensify.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗

USGS2020

Stressor identification framework of biological impairment in Mississippi streams to support watershed restoration and TMDL development

The Clean Water Act (CWA) requires States to identify waters that are impaired for designated uses. These waters are published through a State’s §303(d) list. The CWA also requires that a total maximum daily load (TMDL) be completed for each water body to calculate the maximum amount of contaminants that can be present in that water body and still meet water-quality standards. The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) uses a statewide monitoring and assessment strategy to collect benthic macroinvertebrate community data to assess the health of streams and rivers and to identify impaired waters. Waters that are found to be impaired based on the macroinvertebrate community data are listed on the Mississippi §303(d) list, and the cause of impairment is listed as “biological impairment.” Although the CWA requires TMDLs to be developed for applicable contaminants identified in the §303(d) list, TMDLs cannot be computed for stream reaches in Mississippi listed for biological impairment because the actual stressors causing the impairment have not yet been determined. The MDEQ and other water-resource managers in Mississippi require a framework for stressor identification in biologically impaired streams and rivers. This report is organized to (1) provide a general overview of biological impairment and stressor identification in stream ecosystems and (2) provide a detailed framework for stressor identification of Mississippi streams that are biologically impaired. The intent is for the framework to reduce subjectivity, provide consistency, and allow for adaptation as the science evolves. The stressor identification framework for Mississippi involves six key steps: Define the impairment, List the candidate causes of impairment and develop a conceptual model, Compile all relevant data, Evaluate the data, Identify probable causes of impairment by using a weight-of-evidence approach, and Generate a report of results.

Mississippi↗

USGS2020

Legacy effects of hydrologic alteration in playa wetland responses to droughts

Wetland conservation increasingly must account for climate change and legacies of previous land-use practices. Playa wetlands provide critical wildlife habitat, but may be impacted by intensifying droughts and previous hydrologic modifications. To inform playa restoration planning, we asked: (1) what are the trends in playa inundation? (2) what are the factors influencing inundation? (3) how is playa inundation affected by increasingly severe drought? (4) do certain playas provide hydrologic refugia during droughts, and (5) if so, how are refugia patterns related to historical modifications? Using remotely sensed surface-water data, we evaluated a 30-year time series (1985–2015) of inundation for 153 playas of the Great Basin, USA. Inundation likelihood and duration increased with wetter weather conditions and were greater in modified playas. Inundation probability was projected to decrease from 22% under average conditions to 11% under extreme drought, with respective annual inundation decreasing from 1.7 to 0.9 months. Only 4% of playas were inundated for at least 2 months in each of the 5 driest years, suggesting their potential as drought refugia. Refugial playas were larger and more likely to have been modified, possibly because previous land managers selected refugial playas for modification. These inundation patterns can inform efforts to restore wetland functions and to conserve playa habitats as climate conditions change.

Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2020

Species richness responses to water withdrawal scenarios and minimum flow levels: Evaluating presumptive standards in the Tennessee and Cumberland River basins

Water resource managers are challenged to balance growing water demand with protecting aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity. Management decisions can benefit from improved understanding of water withdrawal impacts on hydrologic regimes and ecological assemblages. This study used Ecological Limit Functions for fish groups within the Tennessee and Cumberland river basins to predict species richness responses under simulated constant-rate (CR) and percent-of-flow (POF) withdrawals and for different minimum flow level protections. Streamflow characteristics (SFC) and richness were generally less sensitive to POF withdrawals than CR withdrawals among sites, fish groups, and ecoregions. Species richness generally declined with increasing withdrawals, but responses were variable depending on site-specific departures of SFCs from reference conditions, drainage area, fish group, ecoregion, and minimum flow level. Under POF withdrawals, 10% and 20% daily flow reductions often resulted in loss of <1 species and/or ≤5% richness among fish groups. Median ecological withdrawal thresholds ranged from 3.5-31% for POF withdrawals and from 0.01-0.92 m3/s for CR withdrawals across fish groups and ecoregions. Application of minimum flow level cutoffs often resulted in damping effects on SFC and richness responses, indicating that protection of low streamflows may mitigate hydrologic alteration and fish species richness loss related to water withdrawals. Site-specific and regionally summarized responses of flow regimes and fish assemblages under alternative withdrawal strategies in this study may be useful in informing water management decisions regarding streamflow allocation and maintaining ecological flows.

Cumberland River basin↗

USGS2020

Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane

Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long‐term, network‐based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2020

Disturbance refugia within mosaics of forest fire, drought, and insect outbreaks

Disturbance refugia – locations that experience less severe or frequent disturbances than the surrounding landscape – provide a framework to highlight not only where and why these biological legacies persist as adjacent areas change but also the value of those legacies in sustaining biodiversity. Recent studies of disturbance refugia in forest ecosystems have focused primarily on fire, with a growing recognition of important applications to land management. Given the wide range of disturbance processes in forests, developing a broader understanding of disturbance refugia is important for scientists and land managers, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate the framework of disturbance refugia through the individual and interactive effects of three prominent forest disturbance agents: fire, drought, and insect outbreaks. We provide examples of disturbance refugia and related applications to natural resource management in western North America, demonstrate methods for characterizing refugia, identify research priorities, and discuss why a more comprehensive definition of disturbance refugia is relevant to conservation globally.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2020

Oases of the future? Evaluating springs as potential hydrologic refugia in drying climates

Springs in water-limited landscapes are biodiversity hotspots and keystone ecosystems, disproportionately influencing surrounding landscapes despite their often small areas. Some springs served as evolutionary refugia during previous climate drying, supporting relict species in isolated habitats. Understanding whether springs will provide hydrologic refugia from future climate change is important to biodiversity conservation but complicated by hydrologic variability among springs, data limitations, and multiple non-climate threats to groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we present a conceptual framework for categorizing springs as potentially stable, relative, or transient hydrologic refugia in a drying climate. Clues about refugial capacity of springs can be assembled from diverse approaches, including citizen-science-powered ecohydrologic monitoring, remote sensing, landowner interviews, and environmental tracer analysis. Managers can integrate multiple lines of evidence to predict which springs may become future refugia for species of concern, strengthening the long-term effectiveness of springs conservation and restoration and informing climate adaptation for terrestrial and freshwater species.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2020

Combining physical and species‐based approaches improves refugia identification

Climate‐change refugia – locations likely to facilitate species persistence under climate change – are increasingly important components of conservation planning. Recent approaches for identifying refugia at broad scales include identifying regions that are projected to experience less severe changes (climatic exposure), that contain a diversity of physical and topographic features (environmental diversity), and that either retain or remain close to suitable climatic conditions (climate tracking, including both “species‐neutral” and species‐based approaches). We compared the degree of agreement between these approaches – with respect to their spatial coverage and other characteristics – across much of North America. This analysis found that approaches based on environmental diversity and species‐neutral climatic gradients both favored topographically complex regions, whereas climatic exposure and species‐based approaches identified regions with a range of topographic characteristics. Species‐based approaches targeting specific habitat groups identified unique regions missed by other approaches, emphasizing the importance of asking the question “refugia for what?” when prioritizing refugia. Our results highlight the necessity of including climatic exposure and species‐based information in addition to topographic diversity and climatic gradients in refugia analyses.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2020

Unfamiliar territory: Emerging themes for ecological drought research and management

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today’s grand challenges. By using a modified horizon-scanning approach that integrated scientists, managers, and decision-makers, we identified the emerging issues in ecological drought that represent key challenges to timely and effective responses. Here we review the themes that most urgently need attention, including novel drought conditions, the potential for transformational drought impacts, and the need for anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and review provides a roadmap to facilitate the research and management innovations that will support forward-looking, co-developed approaches to reduce the risk of drought to our socio-ecological systems during the 21 st century.

One Earth↗

USGS2020

A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest

This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Mapping climate change resistant vernal pools in the northeastern U.S.

Vernal pools are seasonal wetlands that provide important breeding habitat for a variety of amphibian species. As future climate projections indicate warmer growing seasons and earlier seasonal increases in evapotranspiration, some managers of vernal pools have expressed concern that pools may dry earlier in the season, potentially interfering with completion of amphibian life cycles. In this context, a subset of pools might function as hydrologic refugia by providing wetland habitat later into the year under relatively dry conditions, thus supporting species persistence even as summer conditions become warmer and droughts more frequent. This study used approximately 3,000 field observations of inundation from 450 pools in the northeastern United States—located from West Virginia to Maine—to train machine-learning models for predicting the likelihood of pool inundation. Inputs to these models included pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and attributes of the landscapes in which pools were embedded. Predictions of pool wetness were generated on a daily time step from late April through late July using three short-term weather scenarios (dry, wet, and average) under historical climate conditions and four sets of downscaled climate projections (2050s and 2080s under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). The modeling and inundation prediction process was replicated using four inundation thresholds on wetted area and depth. Model outputs can enable users to examine the inundation thresholds, time points, weather scenarios, and future climate projections most relevant to their management needs. Together with long-term monitoring of individual pools at the site scale, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify subsets of pools that may be most likely to function as hydrologic refugia from changing climate conditions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

USGS2019

Ecological islands: Conserving biodiversity hotspots in a changing climate

For decades, botanists have recognized that rare plants are clustered into ecological “islands”: small and isolated habitat patches produced by landscape features such as sinkholes and bedrock outcrops. Insular ecosystems often provide unusually stressful microhabitats for plant growth (eg because of thin soils, high temperatures, extreme pH, or limited nutrients) to which rare species are specially adapted. Climate-driven shifts to these stressors may undermine the competitive advantage of stress-adapted species, allowing them to be displaced by competitors, or may overwhelm their coping strategies altogether. Special features of insular ecosystems—such as extreme habitat fragmentation and association with unusual landscape features—may also affect their climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To predict and manage these changes, a simple conceptual framework is presented based on a synthesis of over 300 site-level studies. Using this framework, conservation efforts can leverage existing ecological knowledge to anticipate changes in particular microhabitats and design targeted strategies for conserving rare species.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗