Geology topics

Jeffrey Welker

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey Welker.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2020

Early goose arrival increases soil nitrogen availability more than an advancing spring in coastal western Alaska

An understudied aspect of climate change-induced phenological mismatch is its effect on ecosystem functioning, such as nitrogen (N) cycling. Migratory herbivore arrival time may alter N inputs and plant–herbivore feedbacks, whereas earlier springs are predicted to increase N cycling rates through warmer temperatures. However, the relative importance of these shifts in timing and how they interact to affect N cycling are largely unknown. We conducted a 3-year factorial experiment in coastal western Alaska that simulated different timings of Pacific black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) arrival (3 weeks early, typical, 3 weeks late, or no-grazing) and the growing season (ca. 3 weeks advanced and ambient) on adsorbed and mobile inorganic (NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N) and mobile organic N (amino acid) pools. Early grazing increased NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N, and amino acids by 103%, 119%, and 7%, respectively, whereas late grazing reduced adsorbed NH 4 + –N and NO 3 − –N by 16% and 17%, respectively. In comparison, the advanced growing season increased mobile NH 4 + –N by 26%. The arrival time by geese and the start of the season did not interact to influence soil N availability. While the onset of spring in our system is advancing at twice the rate of migratory goose arrival, earlier goose migration is likely to be more significant than the advances in springs in influencing soil N, although both early goose arrival and advanced springs are likely to increase N availability in the future. This increase in soil N resources can have a lasting impact on plant community composition and productivity in this N-limited ecosystem.

Coastal western Alaska↗

USGS2020

Exploring overlap of feather molting and migration in Tundra Swans using δ2H analysis

Determining the processes that shape the relative timing of energetically-costly events in the annual cycle of migrating birds is important to our understanding of avian phenology and ecology. We paired satellite tracking and hydrogen stable isotope analysis (δ 2 H) to examine the relative timing of two such events – migration and feather molting – in tundra swans from four breeding areas in Alaska, USA. Our results show a trend of increasing intra-individual variability in breast feather δ 2 H values with increasing migration distance, suggesting the overlap of breast feather molting and migration. However, when individual samples were pooled by breeding area, the δ 2 H values of breast and head feathers showed no trend with migration distance, presumably resulting from high levels of inter-individual variability in δ 2 H values within each breeding area. We explore potential reasons for this variability, propose potential mechanisms influencing feather δ 2 H values of tundra swans, and recommend further research into methods for exploring the temporal configuration of events in the annual cycle of migrating birds.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across pan-arctic permafrost region

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter 1 , 2 , 3 , greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) 4 . However, the amount of CO 2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates 5 , 6 . Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO 2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO 2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO 2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO 2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

northern permafrost region↗

USGS2019

Cloud cover and delayed herbivory relative to timing of spring onset interact to dampen climate change impacts on net ecosystem exchange in a coastal Alaskan wetland

Rapid warming in northern ecosystems over the past four decades has resulted in earlier spring, increased precipitation, and altered timing of plant–animal interactions, such as herbivory. Advanced spring phenology can lead to longer growing seasons and increased carbon (C) uptake. Greater precipitation coincides with greater cloud cover possibly suppressing photosynthesis. Timing of herbivory relative to spring phenology influences plant biomass. None of these changes are mutually exclusive and their interactions could lead to unexpected consequences for Arctic ecosystem function. We examined the influence of advanced spring phenology, cloud cover, and timing of grazing on C exchange in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of western Alaska for three years. We combined advancement of the growing season using passive-warming open-top chambers (OTC) with controlled timing of goose grazing (early, typical, and late season) and removal of grazing. We also monitored natural variation in incident sunlight to examine the C exchange consequences of these interacting forcings. We monitored net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE) hourly using an autochamber system. Data were used to construct daily light curves for each experimental plot and sunlight data coupled with a clear-sky model was used to quantify daily and seasonal NEE over a range of incident sunlight conditions. Cloudy days resulted in the largest suppression of NEE, reducing C uptake by approximately 2 g C m −2 d −1 regardless of the timing of the season or timing of grazing. Delaying grazing enhanced C uptake by approximately 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Advancing spring phenology reduced C uptake by approximately 1.5 g C m −2 d −1 , but only when plots were directly warmed by the OTCs; spring advancement did not have a long-term influence on NEE. Consequently, the two strongest drivers of NEE, cloud cover and grazing, can have opposing effects and thus future growing season NEE will depend on the magnitude of change in timing of grazing and incident sunlight.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Phenological mismatch between season advancement and migration timing alters Arctic plant traits

1. Climate change is creating phenological mismatches between herbivores and their plant resources throughout the Arctic. While advancing growing seasons and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores has been shown to have consequences for herbivores and forage quality, developing mismatches are also likely to influence other traits of plants, such as above- and belowground biomass and the type of reproduction, that are often not investigated. 2. In coastal western Alaska, we conducted a three-year factorial experiment that simulated scenarios of phenological mismatch by manipulating the start of the growing season (ca. 3-weeks early and ambient) and grazing times (3-weeks early, typical, 3-weeks late, or no-grazing) of Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans), to examine how the timing of these events influence a primary goose forage species, Carex subspathacea. 3. After three years, an advanced growing season compared to a typical growing season increased stem heights, standing dead biomass, and the number of inflorescences. Early season grazing compared to typical season grazing reduced above- and belowground biomass, stem height, and the number of tillers; while late season grazing increased the number of inflorescences and standing dead biomass by year 3. Therefore, an advanced growing season and late grazing had comparable directional effects on most plant traits, but a 3-week delay in grazing had an impact on vegetation traits 3 to 5 times greater than a similar shift in advancement of spring conditions. In addition, changes in response to treatments for some variables, such as the number of inflorescences, were not measurable until the second year of the experiment, while other variables, such as root productivity and number of tillers, changed the direction of their responses to treatments over time. 4. Synthesis: Factors influencing the timing of migration have a larger influence on an important forage species than earlier springs in the breeding and rearing habitats of Pacific black brant. The phenological mismatch prediction for this site of earlier springs and later goose arrival will likely increase above- and belowground biomass and sexual reproduction of C. subspathacea. Implications for mismatch may be difficult to predict because some variables required successive years of mismatch to respond.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2019

Migratory goose arrival time plays a larger role in influencing forage quality than advancing springs in an Arctic coastal wetland

With warmer springs, herbivores migrating to Arctic breeding grounds may experience phenological mismatches between their energy demands and the availability of high quality forage. However, the timing of high quality forage relative to the timing of grazing is often unknown. In coastal western Alaska, approximately one million migratory geese arrive each spring to breed where foliar %N and C:N ratios are linked to gosling survival and population growth. We conducted a three-year experiment where we manipulated the start of the growing season using warming chambers and grazing times using captive Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) to examine how the timing of these events influences the quality of an important forage species. Our results suggest that grazing timing plays a much greater role than an advanced growing season in determining forage quality. Both top models included grazing timing, and suggested that compared to typical grazing timing, early grazing significantly reduced foliar %C by 6% and C:N ratios by 16%, while late goose grazing significantly reduced foliar %N by 15% and increased foliar C:N ratios by 21%. While the second-ranking top model included the effect of season, the advanced growing season only reduced %N by 4%, increased %C by <1%, and increased C:N ratios by 5% compared to an ambient growing season. In summary, in years where geese arrive early, they will consume higher quality forage when they arrive and throughout the season, while in years that geese arrive late they will consume lower quality forage when they arrive and for the remainder of the season. When the growing season starts has only a minor influence on this pattern. Our findings suggest that cues determining migration and arrival times to breeding areas are important factors influencing forage quality for geese in western Alaska.

Alaska↗