Geology topics

Jeffrey R. Kennedy

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey R. Kennedy.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Groundwater response to the 2014 pulse flow in the Colorado River Delta

During the March-May 2014 Colorado River Delta pulse flow, approximately 102 × 10 6 m 3 (82,000 acre-feet) of water was released into the channel at Morelos Dam, with additional releases further downstream. The majority of pulse flow water infiltrated and recharged the regional aquifer. Using groundwater-level and microgravity data we mapped the spatial and temporal distribution of changes in aquifer storage associated with pulse flow. Surface-water losses to infiltration were greatest around the Southerly International Boundary, where a lowered groundwater level owing to nearby pumping created increased storage potential as compared to other areas with shallower groundwater. Groundwater levels were elevated for several months after the pulse flow but had largely returned to pre-pulse levels by fall 2014. Elevated groundwater levels in the limitrophe (border) reach extended about 2 km to the east around the midway point between the Northerly and Southerly International Boundaries, and about 4 km to the east at the southern end. In the southern part of the delta, although total streamflow in the channel was less due to upstream infiltration, augmented deliveries through irrigation canals and possible irrigation return flows created sustained increases in groundwater levels during summer 2014. Results show that elevated groundwater levels and increases in groundwater storage were relatively short lived (confined to calendar year 2014), and that depressed water levels associated with groundwater pumping around San Luis, Arizona and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora cause large, unavoidable infiltration losses of in-channel water to groundwater in the vicinity.

Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2016

Time-lapse gravity data for monitoring and modeling artificial recharge through a thick unsaturated zone

Groundwater-level measurements in monitoring wells or piezometers are the most common, and often the only, hydrologic measurements made at artificial recharge facilities. Measurements of gravity change over time provide an additional source of information about changes in groundwater storage, infiltration, and for model calibration. We demonstrate that for an artificial recharge facility with a deep groundwater table, gravity data are more sensitive to movement of water through the unsaturated zone than are groundwater levels. Groundwater levels have a delayed response to infiltration, change in a similar manner at many potential monitoring locations, and are heavily influenced by high-frequency noise induced by pumping; in contrast, gravity changes start immediately at the onset of infiltration and are sensitive to water in the unsaturated zone. Continuous gravity data can determine infiltration rate, and the estimate is only minimally affected by uncertainty in water-content change. Gravity data are also useful for constraining parameters in a coupled groundwater-unsaturated zone model (Modflow-NWT model with the Unsaturated Zone Flow (UZF) package).

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2016

Gravity change from 2014 to 2015, Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona

Relative-gravity data and absolute-gravity data were collected at 68 stations in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona, in May–June 2015 for the purpose of estimating aquifer-storage change. Similar data from 2014 and a description of the survey network were published in U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015–1086. Data collection and network adjustment results are presented in this report, which is accompanied by a supporting Web Data Release ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7SQ8XHX ). Station positions are presented from a Global Positioning System campaign to determine station elevation.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

Hydrological conditions and evaluation of sustainable groundwater use in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, southeastern Arizona

This study assessed progress toward achieving sustainable groundwater use in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona, through evaluation of 14 indicators of sustainable use. Sustainable use of groundwater in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed requires, at a minimum, a stable rate of groundwater discharge to, and thus base flow in, the San Pedro River. Many of the 14 indicators are therefore related to long-term or short-term effects on base flow and provide us with a means to evaluate groundwater discharge to and base flow in the San Pedro River. The indicators were based primarily on 10 to 20 years of data monitoring in the subwatershed, ending in 2012, and included subwatershedwide indicators, riparian-system indicators, San Pedro River indicators, and springs indicators. Groundwater management actions including voluntary retirement of irrigation pumping in the subwatershed resulted in about a 5,100 acre-feet (acre-ft) reduction in net human use from 2002 to 2012. Subwatershed population increased more than 10,000 during the same period. Most of the reduction occurred during 2002–07 and included reductions in groundwater pumping and increases in managed recharge; net human use varied annually by a few hundred acre-ft during 2007–12. The groundwater budget for 2012 showed a deficit of about 5,000 acre-ft, although the total water-budget uncertainty was about 5,500 acre-ft. In the vicinity of the U.S. Army’s Fort Huachuca, regional-aquifer water levels were in steady decline beginning in at least the mid-1990s (in older wells since at least the early-1970s), as the cone of depression centered on the Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca pumping centers continued to deepen. This was evident in the individual water levels on Fort Huachuca, as well as from the horizontal hydraulic gradients that extend from the pumping centers toward the San Pedro and Babocomari Rivers. Basin water levels in wells southeast of Sierra Vista, away from the river, were also experiencing declines, while some water levels closer to the river were rising. Near-stream vertical gradients along the San Pedro River showed no clear increasing or decreasing trends that would indicate a shift in the direction of subsurface flow between the riverbed and the alluvial aquifer, or a trend in the magnitude of groundwater/surface-water exchange. Annual streamflow permanence data showed no clear change in streamflow permanence trends in any of the river reaches, other than those related to precipitation trends. Similarly, the single-day, dry-season, wet-dry streamflow analysis of all subwatershed river reaches indicated no change in condition over the past 14 years, with the exception of the Hereford reach, which has seen a statistically significant increase in wetted length. Dry-season, alluvial-aquifer water levels in the Hereford reach also showed a statistically significant increase. These improvements are attributed to the end of irrigation pumping in the area. Although data indicate that the length of the Fairbank North wetted reach may be in decline, it is not yet statistically significant. Stable-isotope data indicated reduced groundwater discharge to the Babocomari River in the vicinity of the Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station and to the San Pedro River near the San Pedro River at Palominas gaging station and near the Lewis Springs DCP stage recorder. The Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station is downgradient of the major pumping centers. The change in isotopic signature at the Lewis Springs stage recorder could have been the result of alterations in groundwater/surface-water interactions there caused by beaver damming of the river. Base flow in the San Pedro River declined over the periods of record at the three San Pedro River gaging stations in the subwatershed (Palominas, Charleston, and Tombstone), as well as at the Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station. Precipitation declined slightly from the 1990s to the 2000s, although there is no statistically significant trend in subwatershed precipitation from 1991 to 2012. The occurrence of large winter discharge events appeared to decline and that of large summer discharge events appeared to increase over this same period. Data for physical parameters, general chemistry, nutrient species, select trace elements, and suspended sediment were collected at San Pedro River at Charleston stream-gaging station. These data were summarized over time and analyzed in relation to discharge and season as a means to assess trends over the period of analysis. Federal and State of Arizona drinking-water and human-contact standards were all met and few exceedances occurred for the ecological thresholds investigated. Several constituents showed a significant trend over the period of analysis, but only concentration and flux data for total phosphate, orthophosphate, total nitrogen, suspended sediment, and sulfate were suitable to be used in a weighted regression analysis that statistically accounted for time, discharge, and season. Sulfate concentrations and flux showed a significant downward trend over the period of analysis, whereas total phosphorus and ortho-phosphate showed a relatively small magnitude upward trend relative to standards. Suspended sediment concentrations and flux both showed a significant downward trend in the 1980s, an effect attributed to reduction of cattle in the subwatershed at about this time, and (or) increased cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow ( Salix goodingii ) recruitment, and (or) the curtailment of sand and gravel mining adjacent to the San Pedro River with the designation of the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area in 1988. A spike in sediment flux in 2006 may be attributable to the more than 100 debris flows in the Huachuca Mountains during the summer monsoon of that year. Spring discharge along the San Pedro River generally increased at three sites proximate to the Sierra Vista treated effluent recharge facility and varied somewhat with climate at two other sites. Median annual discharge at the recharge facility peaked in 2006, and at Murray Springs and Horsethief Spring, downgradient of the recharge facility, in 2009. Sampling for trace organic compounds in flow from springs was carried out using both discrete sampling and passive sampling methods. Spring samples thus collected showed the presence of trace-organic compounds. Lewis Springs (background site) had the least number of detections, whereas Murray Springs, located directly downgradient of the City of Sierra Vista’s treated effluent recharge facility, had the greatest number of detections of all the springs. Discrete samples from the recharge facility had more than twice the detections found in discrete samples from Murray Spring and at much higher concentrations. Few similar trace-organic compounds were detected at both the springs and the treated effluent recharge facility, and the number of detections did not increase during the collection period. Limitations of the study prevented the determination of trace-organic concentration in passive samplers and also prevented linking trace organic compounds detected at the treated effluent recharge facility with compounds detected from the springs. In particular, trace organic compounds could also derive from other sources such as septic systems. Looking at the subwatershed as a whole, base flow was in decline along the entire river reach, but determination of the specific cause of the decline was beyond the scope of this report. Conditions in the area from the municipal pumping center of Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca northeast to the river (from about the Charleston to Tombstone gaging stations) were more commonly in decline than in regions further south. Both long-term indicators, such as regional aquifer groundwater levels and horizontal gradients, and the isotope analysis indicated that groundwater discharge to the river and thus base flow may continue to decline in that area. South of Charleston, indicators were more mixed. Some indicators in the Hereford reach suggest groundwater discharge to the San Pedro River may be increasing there, whereas some indicators in the Palominas reach suggest groundwater discharge to the river there may be declining.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Accounting for time- and space-varying changes in the gravity field to improve the network adjustment of relative-gravity data

The relative gravimeter is the primary terrestrial instrument for measuring spatially and temporally varying gravitational fields. The background noise of the instrument—that is, non-linear drift and random tares—typically requires some form of least-squares network adjustment to integrate data collected during a campaign that may take several days to weeks. Here, we present an approach to remove the change in the observed relative-gravity differences caused by hydrologic or other transient processes during a single campaign, so that the adjusted gravity values can be referenced to a single epoch. The conceptual approach is an example of coupled hydrogeophysical inversion, by which a hydrologic model is used to inform and constrain the geophysical forward model. The hydrologic model simulates the spatial variation of the rate of change of gravity as either a linear function of distance from an infiltration source, or using a 3-D numerical groundwater model. The linear function can be included in and solved for as part of the network adjustment. Alternatively, the groundwater model is used to predict the change of gravity at each station through time, from which the accumulated gravity change is calculated and removed from the data prior to the network adjustment. Data from a field experiment conducted at an artificial-recharge facility are used to verify our approach. Maximum gravity change due to hydrology (observed using a superconducting gravimeter) during the relative-gravity field campaigns was up to 2.6 μGal d −1 , each campaign was between 4 and 6 d and one month elapsed between campaigns. The maximum absolute difference in the estimated gravity change between two campaigns, two months apart, using the standard network adjustment method and the new approach, was 5.5 μGal. The maximum gravity change between the same two campaigns was 148 μGal, and spatial variation in gravity change revealed zones of preferential infiltration and areas of relatively high groundwater storage. The accommodation for spatially varying gravity change would be most important for long-duration campaigns, campaigns with very rapid changes in gravity and (or) campaigns where especially precise observed relative-gravity differences are used in the network adjustment.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2015

Hydrology of the middle San Pedro area, southeastern Arizona

In the middle San Pedro Watershed in southeastern Arizona, groundwater is the primary source of water supply for municipal, domestic, industrial, and agricultural use. The watershed comprises two smaller subareas, the Benson subarea and the Narrows-Redington subarea. Early 21st century projections for heavy population growth in the watershed have not yet become a reality, but increased groundwater withdrawals could have undesired consequences - such as decreased base flow to the San Pedro River, and groundwater-level declines - that would lead to the need to deepen existing wells. This report describes the hydrology, hydrochemistry, water quality, and development of a groundwater budget for the middle San Pedro Watershed, focusing primarily on the elements of groundwater movement that could be most useful for the development of a groundwater model Precipitation data from Tombstone, Arizona, and base flow at the stream-gaging station on the San Pedro River at Charleston both show relatively dry periods during the 1960s through the mid-1980s and in the mid-1990s to 2009, and wetter periods from the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s. Water levels in four out of five wells near the mountain fronts show cyclical patterns of recharge, with rates of recharge greatest in the early 1980s through the mid-1990s. Three wells near the San Pedro River recorded their lowest levels during the 1950s to the mid-1960s. The water-level record from one well, completed in the confined part of the coarse-grained lower basin fill, showed a decline of approximately 21 meters. Annual flow of the San Pedro River, measured at the Charleston and Redington gages, has decreased since the 1940s. The median annual streamflow and base flow at the gaging station on the river near Tombstone has decreased by 50 percent between the periods 1968–1986 and 1997–2009. Estimates of streamflow infiltration along the San Pedro River during 1914–2009 have decreased 44 percent, with the largest decreases in the months June–October in the Benson subarea. In the Narrows-Redington subarea, streamflow infiltration has decreased about 65 percent during 1914–2009. The average annual outflow (27.6 hm 3 /year [cubic hectometers per year]) from the Benson subarea aquifer for water years 2001 through 2009 exceeded the inflows (20.0 hm 3 / yr) by 7.60 hm 3 /yr. In the Narrows-Redington subarea for the same period, the average annual outflow (15.7 hm 3 /yr) from the aquifer system exceeded the inflows (13.8 hm 3 /yr) by nearly 2 hm 3 /yr. The largest withdrawals of groundwater in both subareas are for irrigation; these withdrawals peaked in 1973 and have been steadily decreasing since then. Recharge from streamflow infiltration exceeded recharge from the mountain-front and from ephemeral channels in the Benson subarea. In the Narrows-Redington subarea, however, recharge from mountain-front and ephemeral channel recharge exceeded recharge from streamflow infiltration. Evapotranspiration by phreatophytes accounts for the largest outflow of groundwater for both subareas—78 percent of the outflow in the Narrows-Redington subarea and 62 percent of the outflow in the Benson subarea. Precipitation, surface-water, and groundwater chemistry and isotope data indicated the relative age and residence time of groundwater, the amount of interaction between geologic sources and groundwater, and how recharge elevation and season were related to the presence of modern water. The bedrock aquifer receives modern recharge (

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Surface and subsurface microgravity data in the vicinity of Sanford Underground Research Facility, Lead, South Dakota

Absolute gravity data were collected at 32 stations in the vicinity of the Sanford Underground Research Facility from 2007 through 2014 for the purpose of monitoring groundwater storage change during dewatering of the former Homestake gold mine in the Black Hills of South Dakota, the largest and deepest underground mine in North America. Eight underground stations are at depths from 300 feet below land surface to 4,850 feet below land surface. Surface stations were located using Global Positioning System observations, and subsurface stations were located on the basis of maps constructed from survey measurements made while the mine was in operation. Gravity varies widely at many stations; however, no consistent temporal trends are present across all stations during the 7-year period of data collection.

South Dakota↗

USGS2015

Gravity data from the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona

Observations of very small changes of Earth’s gravitational field (time-lapse gravity) provide a direct, non-invasive method for measuring changes in aquifer storage change. An existing network of gravity stations in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed was revised in 2014 to better understand the spatial distribution of changes in aquifer storage, especially with relation to ephemeral channel recharge and a groundwater cone of depression associated with pumping in the greater Sierra Vista area. In addition, the network was extended to provide baseline data for possible future enhanced-recharge projects. This report (1) summarizes changes to the Sierra Vista Subwatershed regional time-lapse gravity network with respect to station locations and (2) presents 2014 and 2015 gravity measurements and gravity values at each station. A prior gravity network, established between 2000 and 2005, was revised in 2014 to cover a larger number of stations over a smaller geographic area in order to decrease measurement and interpolation uncertainty. The network currently consists of 59 gravity stations, including 14 absolute-gravity stations. Following above-average rainfall during summer 2014, gravity increased at all but one of the absolute-gravity stations that were observed in both June 2014 and January 2015. This increase in gravity indicates increased groundwater storage in the aquifer and (or) unsaturated zone as a result of rainfall and infiltration.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Initial characterization of the groundwater system near the Lower Colorado Water Supply Project, Imperial Valley, California

In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Needles, began a study of the hydrogeology along the All-American Canal, which conveys water from the Colorado River to the Imperial Valley. The focus of this study was to gain a better understanding of the effect of lining the All-American Canal, and other management actions, on future total dissolved solids concentrations in groundwater pumped by Lower Colorado Water Supply Project wells that is delivered to the All-American Canal. The study included the compilation and evaluation of previously published hydrogeologic and geochemical information, establishment of a groundwater-elevation and groundwater-quality monitoring network, results of monitoring groundwater elevations and groundwater quality from 2009 to 2011, site-specific hydrologic investigations of the Lower Colorado Water Supply Project area, examination of groundwater salinity by depth by using time-domain electromagnetic surveys, and monitoring of groundwater-storage change by using microgravity methods. Prior to the completion of the All-American Canal in 1940, groundwater in the study area flowed from east to west, and groundwater was recharged primarily by underflow from the Colorado River Valley. After construction of the All-American Canal, groundwater elevations were altered in the study area as seepage of Colorado River water from the All-American Canal and other canals became the dominant recharge source. By 2005, groundwater elevations had increased by as much as 50–70 feet along the All-American Canal. Superimposed on the east-to-west groundwater gradient was groundwater movement away from the All-American Canal to the north and, most likely, to the south into Mexico. After lining the All-American Canal, from 2007 to 2010, groundwater elevations declined as seepage from the All-American Canal decreased. Between 2005 (the last complete groundwater-elevation survey prior to lining the All-American Canal) and 2011, groundwater elevations declined 20–40 feet along the All-American Canal and as much as 40–45 feet in the vicinity of Lower Colorado Water Supply Project pumping wells. Water-quality and isotope data were used to differentiate historically recharged groundwater from groundwater more recently recharged by seepage of Colorado River surface water from the All-American Canal. Prior to the completion of the All-American Canal in 1940, groundwater in the southern part of the study area was primarily sodium-chloride/sulfate type water that had relatively low total dissolved solids concentrations (500–820 milligrams per liter). During 2007–11, groundwater in the southern part of the study area, near the All-American Canal, ranged from sodium-chloride type water to mixed-cation-sulfate type water that had total dissolved solids concentrations generally less than 879 milligrams per liter. The stable-isotopic signature of groundwater near the All-American Canal sampled in 2009–11 indicated inputs of Colorado River water that had been affected by evaporation, and radioactive isotopes indicated that a substantial fraction of water had been recharged recently, within the past 60 years. This contrasted with historically recharged groundwater near the All-American Canal, which had higher sodium and chloride concentrations, and lower calcium and sulfate concentrations, than recent recharge from the All-American Canal. Groundwater at a distance from the All-American Canal, in the East Mesa, Algodones Dunes, Pilot Knob Mesa, and Cargo Muchacho Mountains piedmont, was found to have higher total dissolved solids concentrations (generally greater than 1,000 milligrams per liter) than recently recharged groundwater near the All-American Canal. Time-domain electromagnetic data indicated that low-salinity groundwater was present down to about 377 feet below land surface near the All-American Canal; groundwater salinity at depth increased with distance north from the All-American Canal. Groundwater several miles or more from the canal also did not contain tritium and had a residence time on the order of thousands to tens of thousands of years. The groundwater in the piedmont of the Cargo Muchacho Mountains had a distinctly light stable-isotopic signature indicative of recharge by runoff from local precipitation, whereas the stable isotopic signature of groundwater in the East Mesa and the Algodones Dunes indicated a mixture of local precipitation and historic Colorado River recharge sources. During and after lining the All-American Canal (2007–11), groundwater elevations in the Lower Colorado Water Supply Project area declined, while total dissolved solids concentrations remained relatively constant. The total dissolved solids concentrations in well LCWSP-2 ranged from 650 to 800 milligrams per liter during this study. Depth-specific water-quality and isotope sampling at well LCWSP-2 indicated the groundwater pumped from the deeper part of the screened interval (240–280 feet below land surface) contained a greater proportion of historical groundwater than the groundwater pumped from the shallower part of the screened interval (350–385 feet below land surface). Age-tracer data at well LCWSP-2 indicated that all depths of the screened interval had received recent recharge from seepage of Colorado River water from the All-American Canal.

California↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B17B-GB and EMA-MGB RPD-boxplot results showed that the median RPDs across all streamgaging stations for the 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs, computed using station skew, were approximately zero. As the AEP flow estimates decreased (that is, from 10 to 0.2 percent AEP) the variability in the RPDs increased, indicating that the AEP flow estimate was greater for EMA-MGB when compared to B17B-GB. There was only one RPD greater than 100 percent for the 10- and 1-percent AEP estimates, whereas 19 RPDs exceeded 100 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. At streamgaging stations with low-outlier data, historical peak-flow data, or both, RPDs ranged from −84 to 262 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP flow estimate. When streamgaging stations were separated by the presence of historical peak-flow data (that is, no low outliers or censored peaks) or by low outlier peak-flow data (no historical data), the results showed that RPD variability was greatest for the 0.2-AEP flow estimates, indicating that the treatment of historical and (or) low-outlier data was different between methods and that method differences were most influential when estimating the less probable AEP flows (1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent). When regional skew information was weighted with the station skew, B17B-GB estimates were generally higher than the EMA-MGB estimates for any given AEP. This was related to the different regional skews and mean square error used in the weighting procedure for each flood frequency analysis. The B17B-GB weighted skew analysis used a more positive regional skew determined in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433 (Thomas and others, 1997), while the EMA-MGB analysis used a more negative regional skew with a lower mean square error determined from a Bayesian generalized least squares analysis. Regional groupings of streamgaging stations reflected differences in physiographic and climatic characteristics. Potentially influential low flows (PILFs) were more prevalent in arid regions of the State, and generally AEP flows were larger with EMA-MGB than with B17B-GB for gaging stations with PILFs. In most cases EMA-MGB curves would fit the largest floods more accurately than B17B-GB. In areas of the State with more baseflow, such as along the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains, streamgaging stations generally had fewer PILFs and more positive skews, causing estimated AEP flows to be larger with B17B-GB than with EMA-MGB. The effect of including regional skew was similar for all regions, and the observed pattern was increasingly greater B17B-GB flows (more negative RPDs) with each decreasing AEP quantile. A variation on a goodness-of-fit test statistic was used to describe each method’s ability to fit the largest floods. The mean absolute percent difference between the measured peak flows and the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3)-estimated flows, for each method, was averaged over the 90th, 75th, and 50th percentiles of peak-flow data at each site. In most percentile subsets, EMA-MGB on average had smaller differences (1 to 3 percent) between the observed and fitted value, suggesting that the EMA-MGB-LP3 distribution is fitting the observed peak-flow data more precisely than B17B-GB. The smallest EMA-MGB percent differences occurred for the greatest 10 percent (90th percentile) of the peak-flow data. When stations were analyzed by USGS NWIS peak flow qualification code groups, the stations with historical peak flows and no low outliers had average percent differences as high as 11 percent greater for B17B-GB, indicating that EMA-MGB utilized the historical information to fit the largest observed floods more accurately. A resampling procedure was used in which 1,000 random subsamples were drawn, each comprising one-half of the observed data. An LP3 distribution was fit to each subsample using B17B-GB and EMA-MGB methods, and the predicted 1-percent AEP flows were compared to those generated from distributions fit to the entire dataset. With station skew, the two methods were similar in the median percent difference, but with weighted skew EMA-MGB estimates were generally better. At two gages where B17B-GB appeared to perform better, a large number of peak flows were deemed to be PILFs by the MGB test, although they did not appear to depart significantly from the trend of the data (step or dogleg appearance). At two gages where EMA-MGB performed better, the MGB identified several PILFs that were affecting the fitted distribution of the B17B-GB method. Monte Carlo simulations were run for the LP3 distribution using different skews and with different assumptions about the expected number of historical peaks. The primary benefit of running Monte Carlo simulations is that the underlying distribution statistics are known, meaning that the true 1-percent AEP is known. The results showed that EMA-MGB performed as well or better in situations where the LP3 distribution had a zero or positive skew and historical information. When the skew for the LP3 distribution was negative, EMA-MGB performed significantly better than B17B-GB and EMA-MGB estimates were less biased by more closely estimating the true 1-percent AEP for 1, 2, and 10 historical flood scenarios.

Arizona↗

USGS2014

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

Large floods have historically caused extensive damage in Arizona. Although peak-flow frequency estimates are required for managing the risk posed by floods, estimates of the frequency of sustained flood flow (flood-duration flow) are also useful for planning and assessing the adequacy of retention and conveyance structures and for water-resource planning. This report presents a flood-duration flow frequency analysis for selected durations (1 day, 3 day, 7 day, 15 day, and 30 day) at 173 streamgaging stations throughout Arizona and in western New Mexico. For each n -day duration, a log-Pearson type III distribution was fitted to the annual series of n -day flood-duration flows using the expected moments algorithm with a multiple Grubbs-Beck low-outlier test. Regional skews were developed independently for each n -day duration using a hybrid weighted least squares/generalized least squares method. No basin characteristics were found to adequately explain variation in skew among stations and a constant statewide skew model was used for all n -day durations. The regional skewness coefficient is negative for all n -day durations and becomes increasingly negative for longer n -day durations. Uncertainty associated with the skewness coefficient is estimated using a Bayesian generalized least squares technique. Regression equations, which allow predictions of n -day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n -day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n -day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

Arizona↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban watersheds in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona

Flooding in urban areas routinely causes severe damage to property and often results in loss of life. To investigate the effect of urbanization on the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks, a flood frequency analysis was carried out using data from urbanized streamgaging stations in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. Flood peaks at each station were predicted using the log-Pearson Type III distribution, fitted using the expected moments algorithm and the multiple Grubbs-Beck low outlier test. The station estimates were then compared to flood peaks estimated by rural-regression equations for Arizona, and to flood peaks adjusted for urbanization using a previously developed procedure for adjusting U.S. Geological Survey rural regression peak discharges in an urban setting. Only smaller, more common flood peaks at the 50-, 20-, 10-, and 4-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) demonstrate any increase in magnitude as a result of urbanization; the 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood estimates are predicted without bias by the rural-regression equations. Percent imperviousness was determined not to account for the difference in estimated flood peaks between stations, either when adjusting the rural-regression equations or when deriving urban-regression equations to predict flood peaks directly from basin characteristics. Comparison with urban adjustment equations indicates that flood peaks are systematically overestimated if the rural-regression-estimated flood peaks are adjusted upward to account for urbanization. At nearly every streamgaging station in the analysis, adjusted rural-regression estimates were greater than the estimates derived using station data. One likely reason for the lack of increase in flood peaks with urbanization is the presence of significant stormwater retention and detention structures within the watershed used in the study.

Arizona↗

USGS2014

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

Flooding is among the worst natural disasters responsible for loss of life and property in Arizona, underscoring the importance of accurate estimation of flood magnitude for proper structural design and floodplain mapping. Twenty-four years of additional peak-flow data have been recorded since the last comprehensive regional flood frequency analysis conducted in Arizona. Periodically, flood frequency estimates and regional regression equations must be revised to maintain the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude. Annual peak-flow data collected through water year 2010 were compiled from 448 unregulated streamflow-gaging stations, hereafter referred to as streamgages, in Arizona having a minimum of 10 years of record. Flood frequency estimates were first computed with station (or at-site) skew using the Expected Moments Algorithm with a multiple Grubbs-Beck test to identify multiple potentially influential low flows to fit a Pearson Type III distribution. Next, a multiple step Bayesian least-squares-regression approach was used to determine a new statewide regional skew of −0.09. No basin characteristics analyzed were statistically significant in explaining the variation in skew and as a result, the constant model was chosen as the best regional skew model for the Arizona study area. The mean square error used in Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data is used to describe the precision of the regional skew. The constant model had a mean square error equal to 0.08, which corresponds to an effective record length of 85 years. This is a marked improvement over a previous Arizona regional skew analysis, with a reported mean square error of 0.31, for a corresponding effective record length of around 17 years. Thus the new regional model had almost five times the information content (as measured by effective record length) of that calculated in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433, published in 1997, or the value of 0.302 reported in the B17B generalized skew map. The flood frequency estimates were recalculated using a weighted skew of the station and regional skew. Station flood frequency estimates for each streamgage are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. Geographical information systems were used to compute basin characteristic information for each streamgage for the purpose of developing regional equations to estimate flood statistics at ungaged basins. Five hydrologic flood regions in Arizona were defined in a multivariate regionalization process based on mean basin elevation, mean annual precipitation, and soil permeability. A regional generalized least-squares-regression analysis was used to develop five sets of equations from 344 nonredundant streamgages, corresponding to five regions, for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged basins in Arizona. The regression equations developed for these five regions were based on one or more of the statistically significant explanatory variables: drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression regions for the five regions ranged from 27 to 122 percent and the pseudo-coefficients of determination (pseudo-R 2 ), a measure of the proportion of peak-flow variation that is explained by the basin characteristics, ranged from 68 to 98 percent. Regression equations for Central Highlands (region 4) had the lowest model error and the greatest pseudo-R 2 metrics. The equations for Colorado Plateau (region 2) regression equations generally had greater model error and lower pseudo-R 2 metrics. The improvement of regional regression equation model error and pseudo-R 2 metrics was related to higher numbers of streamgages, longer period of record, and even spatial coverage within a region. The regional regression equations were integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a national map-based web application that allows the public to easily access published flood frequency and basin characteristic statistics. The interactive web application allows a user to select a point within a watershed (gaged or ungaged) and retrieve flood-frequency estimates derived from the current regional regression equations and geographic information system data within the selected basin. StreamStats provides users with an efficient and accurate means for retrieving the most up to date flood frequency and basin characteristic data. StreamStats is intended to provide consistent statistics, minimize user error, and reduce the need for large datasets and costly geographic information system software.

Arizona↗

USGS2013

Using the KINEROS2 modeling framework to evaluate the increase in storm runoff from residential development in a semi-arid environment

The increase in runoff from urbanization is well known; one extreme example comes from a 13 hectare residential neighborhood in southeast Arizona where runoff was 27 times greater than an adjacent grassland watershed over a forty‐month period from 2005 to 2008. Rainfall‐runoff modeling using the newly‐described KINEROS2 urban element and tension infiltrometer measurements indicate that 17±14 percent of this increase in runoff is due to a 53 percent decrease in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of constructed pervious areas, as compared to the undeveloped grassland. Directly connected impervious areas, primarily streets and driveways, cause 56 percent of the increase in runoff, and indirectly connected impervious areas, primarily rooftops and sidewalks, and a decrease in canopy interception account for the remaining 27 percent increase. Tension infiltrometer measurements show that saturated hydraulic conductivity (K s ) is about double in the grassland watershed than in the urban watershed, 6.2 ± 3.5mm/hr and 2.9 ± 1.6mm/hr, respectively. K s in the urban watershed identified from calibrating the rainfall‐runoff model to measured runoff is 9.5 ± 2.8 mm/hr—higher than what was measured but much lower than the 26 mm/hr value indicated by a soil‐texture based KINEROS2 parameter look‐up table. A new component of the KINEROS2 modeling framework, the urban element, forms the basis for the model by simulating a contiguous row of houses and the adjoining street as a series of pervious and impervious overland flow planes. Tests using different levels of discretization found that watershed geometry can be represented in a simplified manner, although more detailed discretization led to better model performance.

Arizona↗

USGS2012

Results of the first North American comparison of absolute gravimeters, NACAG-2010

The first North American Comparison of absolute gravimeters (NACAG-2010) was hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at its newly renovated Table Mountain Geophysical Observatory (TMGO) north of Boulder, Colorado, in October 2010. NACAG-2010 and the renovation of TMGO are part of NGS’s GRAV-D project (Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum). Nine absolute gravimeters from three countries participated in the comparison. Before the comparison, the gravimeter operators agreed to a protocol describing the strategy to measure, calculate, and present the results. Nine sites were used to measure the free-fall acceleration of g. Each gravimeter measured the value of g at a subset of three of the sites, for a total set of 27 g-values for the comparison. The absolute gravimeters agree with one another with a standard deviation of 1.6 µGal (1 Gal = 1 cm s-2). The minimum and maximum offsets are -2.8 and 2.7 µGal. This is an excellent agreement and can be attributed to multiple factors, including gravimeters that were in good working order, good operators, a quiet observatory, and a short duration time for the experiment. These results can be used to standardize gravity surveys internationally.

Journal of Geodesy↗

USGS2012

KINEROS2/AGWA: Model use, calibration and validation

KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion) originated in the 1960s as a distributed event-based model that conceptualizes a watershed as a cascade of overland flow model elements that flow into trapezoidal channel model elements. KINEROS was one of the first widely available watershed models that interactively coupled a finite difference approximation of the kinematic overland flow equations to a physically based infiltration model. Development and improvement of KINEROS continued from the 1960s on a variety of projects for a range of purposes, which has resulted in a suite of KINEROS-based modeling tools. This article focuses on KINEROS2 (K2), a spatially distributed, event-based watershed rainfall-runoff and erosion model, and the companion ArcGIS-based Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. AGWA automates the time-consuming tasks of watershed delineation into distributed model elements and initial parameterization of these elements using commonly available, national GIS data layers. A variety of approaches have been used to calibrate and validate K2 successfully across a relatively broad range of applications (e.g., urbanization, pre- and post-fire, hillslope erosion, erosion from roads, runoff and recharge, and manure transport). The case studies presented in this article (1) compare lumped to stepwise calibration and validation of runoff and sediment at plot, hillslope, and small watershed scales; and (2) demonstrate an uncalibrated application to address relative change in watershed response to wildfire.

Transactions of the ASABE↗

USGS2011

Gravity data from the San Pedro River Basin, Cochise County, Arizona

The U.S. Geological Survey, Arizona Water Science Center in cooperation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geodetic Survey has collected relative and absolute gravity data at 321 stations in the San Pedro River Basin of southeastern Arizona since 2000. Data are of three types: observed gravity values and associated free-air, simple Bouguer, and complete Bouguer anomaly values, useful for subsurface-density modeling; high-precision relative-gravity surveys repeated over time, useful for aquifer-storage-change monitoring; and absolute-gravity values, useful as base stations for relative-gravity surveys and for monitoring gravity change over time. The data are compiled, without interpretation, in three spreadsheet files. Gravity values, GPS locations, and driving directions for absolute-gravity base stations are presented as National Geodetic Survey site descriptions.

Arizona↗

USGS2010

Hydrogeologic framework of the middle San Pedro watershed, southeastern Arizona

Water managers in rural Arizona are under increasing pressure to provide sustainable supplies of water despite rapid population growth and demands for environmental protection. This report describes the results of a study of the hydrogeologic framework of the middle San Pedro watershed. The components of this report include: (1) a description of the geologic setting and depositional history of basin fill sediments that form the primary aquifer system, (2) updated bedrock altitudes underlying basin fill sediments calculated using a subsurface density model of gravity data, (3) delineation of hydrogeologic units in the basin fill using lithologic descriptions in driller's logs and models of airborne electrical resistivity data, (4) a digital three-dimensional (3D) hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) that represents spatial extents and thicknesses of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs), and (5) description of the hydrologic properties of the HGUs. The lithologic interpretations based on geophysical data and unit thickness and extent of the HGUs included in the HFM define potential configurations of hydraulic zones and parameters that can be incorporated in groundwater-flow models. The hydrogeologic framework comprises permeable and impermeable stratigraphic units: (1) bedrock, (2) sedimentary rocks predating basin-and-range deformation, (3) lower basin fill, (4) upper basin fill, and (5) stream alluvium. The bedrock unit includes Proterozoic to Cretaceous crystalline rocks, sedimentary rocks, and limestone that are relatively impermeable and poor aquifers, except for saturated portions of limestone. The pre-basin-and-range sediments underlie the lower basin fill but are relatively impermeable owing to cementation. However, they may be an important water-bearing unit where fractured. Alluvium of the lower basin fill, the main water-bearing unit, was deposited in the structural trough between the uplifted ridges of bedrock and (or) pre-basin-and-range sediments. Alluvium of the upper basin fill may be more permeable than the lower basin fill, but it is generally unsaturated in the study area. The lower basin fill stratigraphic unit was delineated into three HGUs on the basis of lithologic descriptions in driller?s logs and one-dimensional (1D) electrical models of airborne transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveys. The interbedded lower basin fill (ILBF) HGU represents an upper sequence having resistivity values between 5 and 40 ohm-m identified as interbedded sand, gravel, and clay in driller?s logs. Below this upper sequence, fine-grained lower basin fill (FLBF) HGU represents a thick silt and clay sequence having resistivity values between 5 and 20 ohm-m. Within the coarse-grained lower basin fill (CLBF) HGU, which underlies the silt and clay of the FLBF, the resistivity values on logs and 1D models increase to several hundred ohm-m and are highly variable within sand and gravel layers. These sequences match distinct resistivity and lithologic layers identified by geophysical logs in the adjacent Sierra Vista subwatershed, suggesting that these sequences are laterally continuous within both the Benson and Sierra Vista subwatersheds in the Upper San Pedro Basin. A subsurface density model based on gravity data was constructed to identify the top of bedrock and structures that may affect regional groundwater flow. The subsurface density model contains six layers having uniform density values, which are assigned on the basis of geophysical logs. The density values for the layers range between 1.65 g/cm3 for unsaturated sediments near the land surface and 2.67 g/cm3 for bedrock. Major features include three subbasins within the study area, the Huachuca City subbasin, the Tombstone subbasin, and the Benson subbasin, which have no expression in surface topography or lithology. Bedrock altitudes from the subsurface density model defined top altitudes of the bedrock HGU. The HFM includes the following HGUs in ascending stratigr

Scientific Investigations Report↗