Geology topics

Jeffrey P. Donnelly

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey P. Donnelly.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Complex sedimentary processes in large coastal embayments and their potential for coastal morphological and paleo tropical cyclone studies: A case study from Choctawhatchee Bay Western Florida, U.S.A

Storminess and sea-level can both have a significant impact on landforms in cyclone-prone coastal regions, although much of our understanding comes from short-timescale modern observations. This study aims to understand the variability of sediment transport and deposition in the Choctawhatchee Bay/Santa Rosa Island in the northern Gulf of Mexico, establishing the dominant sediment transport processes and morphological response of the barrier system to long-term variations in storminess and rising sea-levels. Here, we study the spatial and temporal changes in physicochemical properties of the sedimentary record of Choctawhatchee Bay to examine the character and fidelity of records of storm impacts spanning the Holocene. Proxies for marine and terrestrial conditions in the cores situated closer to the present barrier (proximal) show that sedimentation in coastal areas and marine influence of the bay during the last ~8000 yrs. were mainly determined by barrier response to the Holocene transgression and changes in storminess. In contrast, sedimentation close to the landward shore was governed by terrigenous input. The correlation of grain size and terrigenous proxies with regional hurricane records indicates that hinterland erosion by the rainfall during hurricane events is likely the dominant terrigenous sediment transport mechanism in areas close to the landward shore of the bay. These results suggest that sediment archives in large coastal deposition environments are equally suitable for sea level and cyclone modulated coastal morphological studies and paleo tropical cyclone studies, depending on the location, selected with an understanding of sedimentation processes in the vicinity.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes

The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 CE was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2020

Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2020

Sea‐level rise will drive divergent sediment transport patterns on fore reefs and reef flats, potentially causing erosion on atoll islands

Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean‐facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross‐shore sediment exchange and, thus, affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross‐shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase‐resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well captured by wave‐averaged models, namely, wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5–2.0 m of sea level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest but increase potential cross‐reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.

Journal of Geophysical Research – Earth Surface↗

USGS2019

Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, The Bahamas

Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane-climate interactions on multi-decadal and longer timescales. Coarse-grained, hurricane-induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse-grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti-phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.

South Andros Island↗

USGS2019

The mighty Susquehanna—extreme floods in Eastern North America during the past two millennia

The hazards posed by infrequent major floods to communities along the Susquehanna River and the ecological health of Chesapeake Bay remain largely unconstrained due to the short length of streamgage records. Here we develop a history of high‐flow events on the Susquehanna River during the late Holocene from flood deposits contained in MD99‐2209, a sediment core recovered in 26 m of water from Chesapeake Bay near Annapolis, Maryland, United States. We identify coarse‐grained deposits left by Hurricane Agnes (1972) and the Great Flood of 1936, as well as during three intervals that predate instrumental flood records (~1800–1500, 1300–1100, and 400–0 CE). Comparison to sedimentary proxy data (pollen and ostracode Mg/Ca ratios) from the same core site indicates that prehistoric flooding on the Susquehanna often accompanied cooler‐than‐usual winter/spring temperatures near Chesapeake Bay—typical of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation and conditions thought to foster hurricane landfalls along the East Coast.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2019

Salt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise

Salt marshes respond to sea-level rise through a series of complex and dynamic bio-physical feedbacks. In this study, we found that sea-level rise triggered salt marsh habitat restructuring, with the associated vegetation changes enhancing salt marsh elevation resilience. A continuous record of marsh elevation relative to sea level that includes reconstruction of high-resolution, sub-decadal, marsh elevation over the past century, coupled with a lower-resolution 1500-year record, revealed that relative sea-level rose 1.5 ± 0.4 m, following local glacial isostatic adjustment (1.2 mm/yr). As sea-level rise has rapidly accelerated, the high marsh zone dropped 11 cm within the tidal frame since 1932, leading to greater inundation and a shift to flood- and salt-tolerant low marsh species. Once the marsh platform fell to the elevation favored by low-marsh Spartina alterniflora , the elevation stabilized relative to sea level. Currently low marsh accretion keeps pace with sea-level rise, while present day high marsh zones that have not transitioned to low marsh have a vertical accretion deficit. Greater biomass productivity, and an expanding subsurface accommodation space favorable for salt marsh organic matter preservation, provide a positive feed-back between sea-level rise and marsh platform elevation. Carbon storage was 46 ± 28 g C/m 2 /yr from 550 to 1800 CE, increasing to 129 ± 50 g C/m 2 /yr in the last decade. Enhanced carbon storage is controlled by vertical accretion rates, rather than soil carbon density, and is a direct response to anthropogenic eustatic sea-level rise, ultimately providing a negative feedback on climate warming.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2017

Increased hurricane frequency near Florida during Younger Dryas Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown

The risk posed by intensification of North Atlantic hurricane activity remains controversial, in part due to a lack of available storm proxy records that extend beyond the relatively stable climates of the late Holocene. Here we present a record of storm-triggered turbidite deposition offshore the Dry Tortugas, south Florida, USA, that spans abrupt transitions in North Atlantic sea-surface temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.7 ka). Despite potentially hostile conditions for cyclogenesis in the tropical North Atlantic at that time, our record and numerical experiments suggest that strong hurricanes may have regularly affected Florida. Less severe surface cooling at mid-latitudes (∼20°–40°N) than across much of the tropical North Atlantic (∼10°–20°N) in response to AMOC reduction may best explain strong hurricane activity during the Younger Dryas near the Dry Tortugas and possibly along the entire southeastern coast of the United States.

Florida↗

USGS2016

The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2015

Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic Coast

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions can be used to estimate rates of land-level (subsidence or uplift) change and therefore to modify global sea-level projections for regional conditions. These reconstructions also provide the long-term benchmark against which modern trends are compared and an opportunity to understand the response of sea level to past climate variability. To address a spatial absence of late Holocene data in Florida and Georgia, we reconstructed ~ 1.3 m of RSL rise in northeastern Florida (USA) during the past ~ 2600 years using plant remains and foraminifera in a dated core of high salt-marsh sediment. The reconstruction was fused with tide-gauge data from nearby Fernandina Beach, which measured 1.91 ± 0.26 mm/year of RSL rise since 1900 CE. The average rate of RSL rise prior to 1800 CE was 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/year. Assuming negligible change in global mean sea level from meltwater input/removal and thermal expansion/contraction, this sea-level history approximates net land-level (subsidence and geoid) change, principally from glacio-isostatic adjustment. Historic rates of rise commenced at 1850–1890 CE and it is virtually certain ( P = 0.99) that the average rate of 20th century RSL rise in northeastern Florida was faster than during any of the preceding 26 centuries. The linearity of RSL rise in Florida is in contrast to the variability reconstructed at sites further north on the U.S. Atlantic coast and may suggest a role for ocean dynamic effects in explaining these more variable RSL reconstructions. Comparison of the difference between reconstructed rates of late Holocene RSL rise and historic trends measured by tide gauges indicates that 20th century sea-level trends along the U.S. Atlantic coast were not dominated by the characteristic spatial fingerprint of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Rapid wetland expansion during European settlement and its implication for marsh survival under modern sediment delivery rates

Fluctuations in sea-level rise rates are thought to dominate the formation and evolution of coastal wetlands. Here we demonstrate a contrasting scenario in which land-use–related changes in sediment delivery rates drive the formation of expansive marshland, and vegetation feedbacks maintain their morphology despite recent sediment supply reduction. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon dating in the Plum Island Estuary (Massachusetts, United States) suggest that salt marshes expanded rapidly during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries due to increased rates of sediment delivery following deforestation associated with European settlement. Numerical modeling coupled with the stratigraphic observations suggests that existing marshland could survive, but not form under the low suspended sediment concentrations observed in the estuary today. These results suggest that many of the expansive marshes that characterize the modern North American coast are metastable relicts of high nineteenth century sediment delivery rates, and that recent observations of degradation may represent a slow return to pre-settlement marsh extent. In contrast to ecosystem management practices in which restoring pre-anthropogenic conditions is seen as a way to increase ecosystem services, our results suggest that widespread efforts to restore valuable coastal wetlands actually prevent some systems from returning to a natural state.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2005

Catastrophic meltwater discharge down the Hudson Valley: A potential trigger for the Intra-Allerød cold period

Glacial freshwater discharge to the Atlantic Ocean during deglaciation may have inhibited oceanic thermohaline circulation, and is often postulated to have driven climatic fluctuations. Yet attributing meltwater-discharge events to particular climate oscillations is problematic, because the location, timing, and amount of meltwater discharge are often poorly constrained. We present evidence from the Hudson Valley and the northeastern U.S. continental margin that establishes the timing of the catastrophic draining of Glacial Lake Iroquois, which breached the moraine dam at the Narrows in New York City, eroded glacial lake sediments in the Hudson Valley, and deposited large sediment lobes on the New York and New Jersey continental shelf ca. 13,350 yr B.P. Excess 14 C in Cariaco Basin sediments indicates a slowing in thermohaline circulation and heat transport to the North Atlantic at that time, and both marine and terrestrial paleoclimate proxy records around the North Atlantic show a short-lived (<400 yr) cold event (Intra-Allerød cold period) that began ca. 13,350 yr B.P. The meltwater discharge out the Hudson Valley may have played an important role in triggering the Intra-Allerød cold period by diminishing thermohaline circulation.

Geology↗