Geology topics

Jeffrey J. Love

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey J. Love.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Observatory geoelectric fields induced in a two-layer lithosphere during magnetic storms

We report on the development and validation of an algorithm for estimating geoelectric fields induced in the lithosphere beneath an observatory during a magnetic storm. To accommodate induction in three-dimensional lithospheric electrical conductivity, we analyze a simple nine-parameter model: two horizontal layers, each with uniform electrical conductivity properties given by independent distortion tensors. With Laplace transformation of the induction equations into the complex frequency domain, we obtain a transfer function describing induction of observatory geoelectric fields having frequency-dependent polarization. Upon inverse transformation back to the time domain, the convolution of the corresponding impulse-response function with a geomagnetic time series yields an estimated geoelectric time series. We obtain an optimized set of conductivity parameters using 1-s resolution geomagnetic and geoelectric field data collected at the Kakioka, Japan, observatory for five different intense magnetic storms, including the October 2003 Halloween storm; our estimated geoelectric field accounts for 93% of that measured during the Halloween storm. This work demonstrates the need for detailed modeling of the Earth’s lithospheric conductivity structure and the utility of co-located geomagnetic and geoelectric monitoring.

Kakioka↗

USGS2015

Aurora painting pays tribute to Civil War's end

This year marks the sesquicentennial anniversary of the end of the American Civil War, a conflict that Abraham Lincoln called a “mighty scourge.” It was one of the most poignant periods in U.S. history, laying bare political, economic, social, and moral divergence between Northern and Southern states. The cause of the divergence that led to war was slavery [e.g., McPherson , 1988, chap. 3]—an institution that, by the 19th century, had been effectively abolished in the North but remained firmly entrenched in the South. War erupted in 1861 after a confederacy of Southern states declared secession from the Union of the United States. When the war finally ended in 1865, the Union had prevailed, and afterward, slavery was abolished throughout the United States. This outcome was obtained at the cost of 750,000 American lives and substantial destruction, especially in the South [e.g., Gugliotta , 2012]. In 1865, the same year the war ended, the American landscape artist Frederic Edwin Church unveiled Aurora Borealis (pictured above), a dramatic and mysterious painting that can be interpreted in terms of 19th century romanticism, scientific philosophy, and Arctic missions of exploration. Aurora Borealis can also be viewed as a restrained tribute to the end of the Civil War—a moving example of how science and current events served as the muses of late romantic artists [e.g., Carr , 1994, p. 277; Avery , 2011; Harvey , 2012].

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2014

Magnetic storms and induction hazards

Magnetic storms are potentially hazardous to the activities and technological infrastructure of modern civilization. This reality was dramatically demonstrated during the great magnetic storm of March 1989, when surface geoelectric fields, produced by the interaction of the time-varying geomagnetic field with the Earth's electrically conducting interior, coupled onto the overlying Hydro-Québec electric power grid in Canada. Protective relays were tripped, the grid collapsed, and about 9 million people were temporarily left without electricity [ Bolduc , 2002].

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2014

Auroral omens of the American Civil War

Aurorae are a splendid night-time sight: coruscations of green, purple, and red fluorescent light in the form of gently wafting ribbons, billowing curtains, and flashing rays. Mostly seen at high latitudes, in the north aurorae are often called the northern lights or aurora borealis, and, in the south, the southern lights or aurora australis. The mystery of their cause has historically been the subject of wonder. The folklore and mythology of some far-northern civilizations attributed auroral light to celestial deities. And, in ironic contrast with their heavenly beauty, unusual auroral displays, such as those seen on rare occasions at lower southern latitudes, have sometimes been interpreted as portending unfavorable future events. Today we understand aurorae to be a visual manifestation of the dynamic conditions in the space environment surrounding the earth. Important direct evidence in support of this theory came on September 1, 1859. On that day, an English astronomer named Richard Carrington was situated at his telescope, which was pointed at the sun. While observing and sketching a large group of sunspots, he saw a solar flare—intense patches of white light that were superimposed upon the darker sunspot group and which were illuminated for about a minute. One day later, a magnetic storm was recorded at specially designed observatories in Europe, across Russia, and in India. By many measures, the amplitude of magnetic disturbance was the greatest ever recorded. In the United States, the effects of the Carrington storm could be seen as irregular backand-forth deflections of a few degrees in the magnetized needle of a compass. Rapid magnetic variation also induced electric fields in the earth’s conducting lithosphere, and interfered with the operation of telegraph systems. The Carrington magnetic storm, and an earlier storm that had occurred on August 28, 1859, caused spectacular displays of aurora borealis in the night-time sky over the entire United States and the western hemisphere, possibly all the way down to the equator. This was extremely unusual, so much so that an auroral event o

Weatherwise↗

USGS2014

Time causal operational estimation of electric fields induced in the Earth's lithosphere during magnetic storms

In support of projects for monitoring geomagnetic hazards for electric power grids, we develop a simple mathematical formalism, consistent with the time causality of deterministic physics, for estimating electric fields that are induced in the Earth's lithosphere during magnetic storms. For an idealized model of the lithosphere, an infinite half‐space having uniform electrical conductivity properties described by a galvanic tensor, we work in the Laplace‐transformed frequency domain to obtain a transfer function which, when convolved with measured magnetic field time series, gives an estimated electric field time series. Using data collected at the Kakioka, Japan observatory, we optimize lithospheric conductivity parameters by minimizing the discrepancy between model‐estimated electric field variation and that actually measured. With our simple model, we can estimate 87% of the variance in storm time Kakioka electric field data; a more complicated model of lithospheric conductivity would be required to estimate the remaining 13% of the variance. We discuss how our estimation formalism might be implemented for geographically coordinated real‐time monitoring of geoelectric fields.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2013

An international network of magnetic observatories

Since its formation in the late 1980s, the International Real-Time Magnetic Observatory Network (INTERMAGNET), a voluntary consortium of geophysical institutes from around the world, has promoted the operation of magnetic observatories according to modern standards [eg. Rasson, 2007]. INTERMAGNET institutes have cooperatively developed infrastructure for data exchange and management ads well as methods for data processing and checking. INTERMAGNET institute have also helped to expand global geomagnetic monitoring capacity, most notably by assisting magnetic observatory institutes in economically developing countries by working directly with local geophysicists. Today the INTERMAGNET consortium encompasses 57 institutes from 40 countries supporting 120 observatories (see Figures 1a and 1b). INTERMAGNET data record a wide variety of time series signals related to a host of different physical processes in the Earth's interiors and in the Earth's surrounding space environment [e.g., Love, 2008]. Observatory data have always had a diverse user community, and to meet evolving demand, INTERMAGNET has recently coordinated the introduction of several new data services.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2013

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is “statistically significant.” On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are “insignificant.” Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

Executive Summary The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Circular↗

USGS2013

Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ 2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2013

Geomagnetic referencing--the real-time compass for directional drillers

To pinpoint the location and direction of a wellborne, directional driller rely on measurements from accelerometers, magnetometer and gyroscopes. In the past, high-accuracy guidance methods required a halt in drilling to obtain directional measurements. Advances in geomagnetic referencing now allow companies to use real-time data acquired during drilling to accurately potion horizontal wells, decrease well spacing and drill multiple wells from limited surface locations.

Oilfield Review↗

USGS2013

The magnetic tides of Honolulu

We review the phenomenon of time-stationary, periodic quiet-time geomagnetic tides. These are generated by the ionospheric and oceanic dynamos, and, to a lesser-extent, by the quiet-time magnetosphere, and they are affected by currents induced in the Earth's electrically conducting interior. We examine historical time series of hourly magnetic-vector measurements made at the Honolulu observatory. We construct high-resolution, frequency-domain Lomb-periodogram and maximum-entropy power spectra that reveal a panorama of stationary harmonics across periods from 0.1 to 10000.0-d, including harmonics that result from amplitude and phase modulation. We identify solar-diurnal tides and their annual and solar-cycle sideband modulations, lunar semi-diurnal tides and their solar-diurnal sidebands, and tides due to precession of lunar eccentricity and nodes. We provide evidence that a method intended for separating the ionospheric and oceanic dynamo signals by midnight subsampling of observatory data time series is prone to frequency-domain aliasing. The tidal signals we summarize in this review can be used to test our fundamental understanding of the dynamics of the quiet-time ionosphere and magnetosphere, induction in the ocean and in the electrically conducting interior of the Earth, and they are useful for defining a quiet-time baseline against which magnetospheric-storm intensity is measured.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

John B. "Jack" Townshend (1927-2012)

Jack Townshend, geophysicist and dedicated public servant, died on 13 August 2012 in Fairbanks, Alaska. He was 85. Jack's career with the federal government, most of it with the national magnetic observatory program, spanned more than six solar cycles of time, and he retired only days before his death. The duration of Jack's career encompassed an important period in the history of the advancement of our understanding of the Earth. Jack's career of contributions, his life, and his personality are worthy of retrospective celebration.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2012

Problem of the Love‐Gannon relation between the asymmetric disturbance field and Dst

Love and Gannon (2009) discovered that statistically, over a fifty year period the difference in the dawn and dusk disturbance‐field H component at low latitudes (hourly averaged) is linearly proportional to Dst. If the difference is designated by δ DD in units of nT/R E , then the Love‐Gannon (L‐G) relation is δ DD = − 0.2 Dst. At any time departures from the relation can be large. Nonetheless, the relation is evident for all values of Dst and persists throughout magnetic storms, both the main phase and the recovery phase. The Love‐Gannon discovery presents a problem to current understanding of the relation between the causes of δ DD and Dst because the dawn dusk asymmetry in the disturbance field is presumably governed by a long‐established magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling theory which predicts a characteristic time scale (the shielding time) of less than an hour whereas the characteristic time scale for Dst (the ring current decay time) is more like ten hours. Thus, without forcing both time scales toward each other to the limits of their ranges, a linear proportionality between δ DD and Dst cannot be derived from the current understanding of the causes of the asymmetry and the ring current. This conclusion is the paper's main contribution. In addition, we attempt to get around the conflict of time scales by looking at other possibilities for generating δ DD that depend directly on the ring current. The most promising of these is the possibility that the ring current decay mechanism creates a quasi‐permanent, local‐time modification of the ring current compared to what it would be in the absence of the decay mechanism and that this modification causes a field‐aligned current that closes through the ionosphere and generates the asymmetry δ DD . This idea has the virtue of coupling the asymmetry directly to the ring current and of accounting for the persistence of the L‐G proportionality through the recovery phase of magnetic storms.

Journal of Geophysical Research A: Space Physics↗

USGS2012

Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation

We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\tau)[(\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\sigma$, $68.3\%$ ($2\sigma$, $95.4\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

California↗

USGS2012

Geomagnetic detection of the sectorial solar magnetic field and the historical peculiarity of minimum 23-24

[1] Analysis is made of the geomagnetic-activityaaindex covering solar cycle 11 to the beginning of 24, 1868–2011. Autocorrelation shows 27.0-d recurrent geomagnetic activity that is well-known to be prominent during solar-cycle minima; some minima also exhibit a smaller amount of 13.5-d recurrence. Previous work has shown that the recent solar minimum 23–24 exhibited 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence in geomagnetic and heliospheric data, but those recurrence intervals were not prominently present during the preceding minima 21–22 and 22–23. Using annual-averages and solar-cycle averages of autocorrelations of the historicalaadata, we put these observations into a long-term perspective: none of the 12 minima preceding 23–24 exhibited prominent 9.0 and 6.7-d geomagnetic activity recurrence. We show that the detection of these recurrence intervals can be traced to an unusual combination of sectorial spherical-harmonic structure in the solar magnetic field and anomalously low sunspot number. We speculate that 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence is related to transient large-scale, low-latitude organization of the solar dynamo, such as seen in some numerical simulations.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Natural hazards science strategy

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Open-File Report↗