Geology topics

Jeffrey J. Love

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey J. Love.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Geomagnetic monitoring in the mid-Atlantic United States

Near historic battlegrounds of the American Civil War, southeast of Fredericksburg, Virginia, on a secluded grassy glade surrounded by forest, a specially designed observatory records the Earth’s changing magnetic field. This facility, the Fredericksburg Magnetic Observatory, is 1 of 14 observatories the U.S. Geological Survey Geomagnetism Program operates at various locations across the United States and its Territories as a service to the Nation and in support of a diversity of governmental, academic, and commercial scientific projects.

Virginia↗

USGS2021

Numerical simulations of the geospace response to the arrival of an idealized perfect interplanetary coronal mass ejection

Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including . In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic-ring current-ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an event. The sudden impulse phase is examined and compared to the estimations of Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ). The physics-based simulation yields similar estimates for Dst rise, magnetopause compression, and equatorial values as the previous study. However, results diverge away from the equator. values in excess of 30 nT/s are found as low as magnetic latitude. Under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region one Birkeland currents to intensify the response. Values obtained here surpass those found in historically recorded events and set the upper threshold of extreme geomagnetically induced current activity at Earth.

Space Weather↗

USGS2020

On the size of the flare associated with the solar proton event in 774 AD

The 774 AD solar proton event (SPE) detected in cosmogenic nuclides had an inferred >1 GV (>430 MeV) fluence estimated to have been ~30–70 times larger than that of the 1956 February 23 ground level event (GLE). The 1956 GLE was itself ~2.5 times larger at >430 MeV than the episode of strong GLE activity from 1989 August–October. We use an inferred soft X-ray (SXR) class of X20 ± 10 for the 1956 February 23 eruptive flare as a bridge to the source flare for the 774 SPE. A correlation of the >200 MeV proton fluences of hard-spectra post-1975 GLEs with the SXR peak fluxes of their associated flares yields an SXR flare class of X285 ± 140 (bolometric energy of ~(1.9 ± 0.7) × 10 33 erg) for the 774 flare. This estimate is within theoretical determinations of the largest flare the Sun could produce based on the largest spot group yet observed. Assuming a single eruptive flare source for the 774 SPE, the above estimate indicates that the Sun can produce a threshold-level 10 33 erg superflare. If the 774 event originated in two closely timed, equal-fluence SPEs, the inferred flare size drops to X180 ± 90 (~(1.4 ± 0.5) × 10 33 erg). We speculate on favorable solar conditions that can lead to enhanced shock acceleration of high-energy protons in eruptive flares.

Astrophysical Journal↗

USGS2020

Geomagnetism Program research plan, 2020–2024

The Geomagnetism Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors geomagnetic field variation through operation of a network of observatories across the United States and its territories, and it pursues scientific research needed to estimate and assess geomagnetic and geoelectric hazards. Over the next five years (2020–2024 inclusive) and in support of national and agency priorities, Geomagnetism Program research scientists plan to pursue an integrated set of research projects broadly encompassing empirical estimation and mapping of geomagnetic disturbance, modeling of solid-Earth conductivity structure and surface impedance, and mapping of magnetic-storm-induced geoelectric fields. Analyses are empirically based, relying on measured time series as well as statistical and numerical modeling of geomagnetic-monitoring data from ground-based observatories and surface-impedance tensors acquired during magnetotelluric surveys. The plan describes augmentation and development of the Geomagnetism Program's existing research portfolio, assuming present funding levels and staffing numbers. Because the projects are interdependent, they cannot be straightforwardly prioritized. They will all be pursued as resources and time permit; additional funding and staffing would enable the projects to be broadened and more rapidly completed. Where appropriate and subject to budgetary constraints and staffing numbers, research on specific projects might be accelerated or even judiciously expanded—some opportunities for expansion are discussed in this plan. Results will provide realistic illumination of the nature of the ground-level expression of space-weather disturbance, a subject of particular importance for projects focused on evaluating the vulnerability of electric-power-grid systems. This plan does not cover Geomagnetism Program operations, which are primarily concerned with the operation of magnetic observatories and, now, magnetotelluric surveys, although the context of such observatories and surveys is discussed. The research element of the program provides guidance for the expansion of program operations and research projects. In addition to the research projects summarized here, program scientists continue to provide leadership to the national and international geomagnetic, magnetotelluric, and space-weather communities.

Circular↗

USGS2020

A 100-year geoelectric hazard analysis for the U.S. high-voltage power grid

A once-per-century geoelectric hazard map is created for the United States high-voltage power grid. A statistical extrapolation from 31 years of magnetic field measurements is made by identifying 84 geomagnetic storms with the Kp and Dst indices. Data from 24 geomagnetic observatories, 1079 magnetotelluric survey sites, and 17,258 transmission lines are utilized to perform a geoelectric hazard analysis with the most comprehensive data publicly available. With this data we estimate once-per-century geoelectric fields at the magnetotelluric survey sites and calculate the theoretical voltages within transmission lines in the United States power grid. Once-per-century geoelectric field strengths span more than three orders of magnitude from a minimum of 0.02 V/km at a site in Idaho to a maximum of 26.8 V/km at a site in Maine, with nearly 30% of the surveyed land area ex- ceeding 1 V/km. We show the influence that geoelectric field polarization has on geoelec- tric hazards when viewed on a power transmission network. The calculated transmission line voltages can exceed 1000 V in some transmission lines. Four regions in the United States with particularly notable geoelectric hazards are identified and discussed: the East coast, Pacific Northwest, upper Midwest, and the Denver metropolitan area.

Space Weather↗

USGS2020

Some experiments in extreme-value statistical modeling of magnetic superstorm intensities

In support of projects for forecasting and mitigating the deleterious eﬀects of extreme space-weather storms, an examination is made of the intensities of magnetic superstorms recorded in the Dst index time series (1957-2016). Modiﬁed peak-over-threshold and solar-cycle, block-maximum sampling of the Dst time series are performed to obtain compi-lations of storm-maximum −Dstm intensity values. Lognormal, upper-limit lognormal, generalized Pareto, and generalized extreme-value model distributions are ﬁtted to the−Dstm data using a maximum-likelihood algorithm. All four candidate models provide good representations of the data. Comparisons of the statistical signiﬁcance and good-ness of ﬁts of the various models gives no clear indication as to which model is best. The statistical models are used to extrapolate to extreme-value intensities, such as would be expected (on average) to occur once per century. An upper-limit lognormal ﬁt to peak-over-threshold −Dstm data above a superstorm threshold of 283 nT gives a 100-year ex-trapolated intensity of 542 nT and a 68% conﬁdence interval (obtained by bootstrap re-sampling) of [466, 583] nT. An upper-limit lognormal ﬁt to solar-cycle, block-maximum−DstBM data gives a 9-solar-cycle (approximately 100-year) extrapolated intensity of 553 nT. The Dst data are found to be insuﬃcient for providing usefully accurate esti-mates of a statistically theoretical upper limit for magnetic storm intensity. Secular change in storm intensities is noted, as is a need for improved estimates of pre-1957 magnetic storm intensities.

Space Weather↗

USGS2019

Empirical estimation of natural geoelectric hazards

Geoelectric field time series can be estimated by convolving estimates of Earth‐surface impedance, such as those obtained from magnetotelluric survey measurements, with historical records of geomagnetic variation obtained at magnetic observatories. This straightforward procedure permits the mapping of geoelectric field variation during magnetic storms. Statistical analysis of the time series allows extrapolation to extreme‐value amplitudes, such as might be realized during an intense magnetic storm in the future. The development of these products is illustrated for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, using impedances obtained from EarthScope survey data and geomagnetic variation records obtained at the Fredericksburg observatory operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this region, 100‐year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost three orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, which is due to site‐to‐site differences in surface impedance (and subsurface electrical conductivity structure). Maps of 100‐year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of geoelectric amplitudes for the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100‐year” event.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Intensity and impact of the New York Railroad superstorm of May 1921

Analysis is made of low‐latitude ground‐based magnetometer data recording the magnetic superstorm of May 1921. By inference, the storm was driven by a series of interplanetary coronal mass ejections, one of which produced a maximum pressure on the magnetopause of ~64.5 nPa, sufficient to compress the subsolar magnetopause radius to ~5.3 Earth radii. Over the course of the storm, low‐latitude geomagnetic disturbance exhibited extreme local time (longitude) asymmetry that can be attributed to substorm disturbance extending to low latitudes. The storm attained an estimated maximum − Dst on 15 May of 907 ± 132 nT, an intensity comparable to that of the Carrington event of 1859. The May 1921 storm brought spectacular aurorae to the nighttime sky. It also interfered with and damaged telephone and telegraph systems associated with railroad systems in New York City and State. These later effects were due to a combination of three factors: the localized details of geomagnetic vector disturbance, the geographic expression of the Earth's surface impedance tensor, and the configurations and physical parameters of the electrical networks of the day.

New York↗

USGS2019

On the intensity of the magnetic superstorm of September 1909

Analysis is made of solar observations and ground‐based magnetometer data recording space weather before and during the magnetic superstorm of 25 September 1909. From these data, it is inferred that the storm was initiated by an interplanetary coronal‐mass ejection having a mean Sun‐to‐Earth velocity of ~1,679 km/s. The commencement pressure on the magnetopause was ~32.4 nPa, sufficient to compress the subsolar magnetopause radius to ~5.9 Earth radii. Early on in the evolution of the storm, low‐latitude geomagnetic disturbance exhibited extreme longitudinal asymmetry, something that can be attributed to substorm activity extending to low latitudes. For this storm, Dst attained a minimum of −595 nT, comparable to that of the great magnetic storm of March 1989 (−589 nT; the most intense storm in terms of Dst of the space age). These results inform projects focused on understanding and mitigating the deleterious effects of extreme space‐weather events.

Space Weather↗

USGS2019

Ask astro

No abstract available.

Astronomy↗

USGS2018

Honolulu Magnetic Observatory

Tucked in a grove of thorny mesquite trees, on an ancient coral reef on the south side of the Hawaiian island of Oahu, west of Pearl Harbor, a small unmanned observatory quietly records the Earth’s time-varying magnetic field. The Honolulu Magnetic Observatory is 1 of 14 that the U.S. Geological Survey Geomagnetism Program operates at various locations across the United States and its territories. Data from these observatories, Honolulu, and those operated by institutions in foreign countries, record a variety of magnetic signals related to a wide diversity of physical phenomena in the Earth’s interior and its surrounding outer-space environment. USGS magnetic observatory operations are an integral part of a U.S. National Space Weather Strategy for monitoring and assessing natural hazards that potentially threaten important technological systems.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

The extreme space weather event in September 1909

We evaluate worldwide low-latitude auroral activity associated with the great magnetic storm of September 1909 for which a minimum Dst value of −595 nT has recently been determined. From auroral observations, we calculate that the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval in the 1909 event was in the range from 31°–35° invariant latitude (assuming auroral height of 400 km) to 37°–38° (800 km). These locations compare with satellite-based observations of precipitating auroral electrons down to 40° magnetic latitude for the March 1989 storm with its comparable minimum Dst value of −589 nT. According to Japanese auroral records, bluish colour started to appear first, followed by reddish colour. The colour change can be attributed to the transition from sunlit aurora to the usual low-latitude reddish aurora. Telegraph communications were disrupted at mid/low latitudes, coincidently with the storm main phase and the early recovery phase. The telegraphic disturbances were caused by geomagnetically induced currents associated with the storm-time ring current and substorm current wedge. From the calculated CME energy ─ based on the 24.75 hr separation between the flare-associated magnetic crochet and the geomagnetic storm sudden commencement and interplanetary conditions inferred from geomagnetic data ─ and consideration of the ∼−40 nT crochet amplitude, we estimated that the soft X-ray class of the 24 September 1909 flare was ≥X10. As is the case for other extreme storms, strong/sharp excursions in the horizontal component of the magnetic field observed at low-latitude magnetic stations were coincident with the observation of low-latitude aurora.

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society↗

USGS2018

Geoelectric hazard maps for the Pacific Northwest

Maps of extreme value, horizontal component geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Pacific Northwest United States (and parts of neighboring Canada). Multidecade long geoelectric field time series are calculated by convolving Earth surface impedance tensors from 71 discrete magnetotelluric survey sites across the region with historical 1‐min (2‐min Nyquist) geomagnetic variation time series obtained from two nearby observatories. After fitting statistical models to 1‐min geoelectric amplitudes realized during magnetic storms, extrapolations are made to estimate threshold amplitudes that are only exceeded, on average, once per century. One hundred‐year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes range from 0.06 V/km at a survey site in western Washington State to 9.47 V/km at a site in southeast British Columbia; 100‐year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes equal 7.10 V/km at a site north of Seattle and 2.28 V/km at a site north of Portland. Systematic and random errors are estimated to be less than 20%, much less than site‐to‐site differences in geoelectric amplitude that arise from site‐to‐site differences in surface impedance. Maps of 100‐year exceedance amplitudes are compared with the peak geoelectric amplitudes realized during the March 1989 magnetic superstorm; it is noted that some storms of relatively modest intensity can generate localized geoelectric fields of relatively high amplitude. The geography of geoelectric hazard across the Pacific Northwest is closely related to known geologic and tectonic structures.

Pacific Northwest↗

USGS2018

On the feasibility of real-time mapping of the geoelectric field across North America

A review is given of the present feasibility for accurately mapping geoelectric fields across North America in near-realtime by modeling geomagnetic monitoring and magnetotelluric survey data. Should this capability be successfully developed, it could inform utility companies of magnetic-storm interference on electric-power-grid systems. That real-time mapping of geoelectric fields is a challenge is reflective of (1) the spatiotemporal complexity of geomagnetic variation, especially during magnetic storms, (2) the sparse distribution of ground-based geomagnetic monitoring stations that report data in realtime, (3) the spatial complexity of three-dimensional solid-Earth impedance, and (4) the geographically incomplete state of continental-scale magnetotelluric surveys.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Geoelectric hazard assessment: the differences of geoelectric responses during magnetic storms within common physiographic zones

Geomagnetic field data obtained through the INTERMAGNET program are convolved with with magnetotelluric surface impedance from four EarthScope USArray sites to estimate the geoelectric variations throughout the duration of a magnetic storm. A duration of time from June 22, 2016, to June 25, 2016, is considered which encompasses a magnetic storm of moderate size recorded at the Brandon, Manitoba and Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetic observatories over 3 days. Two impedance sites were chosen in each case which represent different responses while being within close geographic proximity and within the same physiographic zone. This study produces estimated time series of the geoelectric field throughout the duration of a magnetic storm, providing an understanding of how the geoelectric field differs across small geographic distances within the same physiographic zone. This study shows that the geoelectric response of two sites within 200 km of one another can differ by up to two orders of magnitude (4484 mV/km at one site and 41 mV/km at another site 125 km away). This study demonstrates that the application of uniform 1-dimensional conductivity models of the subsurface to wide geographic regions is insufficient to predict the geoelectric hazard at a given site. This necessitates that an evaluation of the 3-dimensional conductivity distribution at a given location is necessary to produce a reliable estimation of how the geoelectric field evolves over the course of a magnetic storm.

Earth, Planets and Space↗

USGS2018

Calculation of voltages in electric power transmission lines during historic geomagnetic storms: An investigation using realistic earth impedances

Commonly, one-dimensional (1-D) Earth impedances have been used to calculate the voltages induced across electric power transmission lines during geomagnetic storms under the assumption that much of the three-dimensional structure of the Earth gets smoothed when integrating along power transmission lines. We calculate the voltage across power transmission lines in the mid-Atlantic region with both regional 1-D impedances and 64 empirical 3-D impedances obtained from a magnetotelluric survey. The use of 3-D impedances produces substantially more spatial variance in the calculated voltages, with the voltages being more than an order of magnitude different, both higher and lower, than the voltages calculated utilizing regional 1-D impedances. During the March 1989 geomagnetic storm 62 transmission lines exceed 100 V when utilizing empirical 3-D impedances, whereas 16 transmission lines exceed 100 V when utilizing regional 1-D impedances. This demonstrates the importance of using realistic impedances to understand and quantify the impact that a geomagnetic storm has on power grids.

Space Weather↗

USGS2018

The electric storm of November 1882

In November 1882, an intense magnetic storm related to a large sunspot group caused widespread interference to telegraph and telephone systems and provided spectacular and unusual auroral displays. The (ring current) storm time disturbance index for this storm reached maximum − Dst ≈ 386 nT, comparable to Halloween storm of 29–31 October 2003, but from 17 to 20 November the aa midlatitude geomagnetic disturbance index averaged 214.25 nT, the highest 4 day level of disturbance since the beginning of aa index in 1868. This storm contributed to scientists' understanding of the reality of solar‐terrestrial interaction. Past occurrences of magnetic storms, like that of November 1882, can inform modern evaluations of the deleterious effects that a magnetic superstorm might have on technological systems of importance to society.

Space Weather↗

USGS2018

Geoelectric hazard maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 year extreme values and the 1989 magnetic storm

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983–2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid‐Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid‐Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site‐to‐site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100 year” event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

Geophysical Research Letters↗