Geology topics

Jay V. Gedir

Publications and source records attributed to Jay V. Gedir.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Status assessment of peregrine falcons in North America using integrated population models

Species status assessments require an understanding of underlying population dynamics and important drivers of species demography. Large-scale assessments can be difficult due to challenges collating data obtained through different methods and different sources at multiple scales. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework to combine multiple data sources and jointly estimate population parameters over a large spatiotemporal scale. We developed separate IPMs to estimate abundance and demographic rates for a northern (NMP) and southern (SMP) management population of peregrine falcons ( Falco peregrinus ) in North America from 2008 through 2019 (SMP) and 2020 (NMP). An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) starting in 2021 led us to extend our modeling effort to assess its impact on these management populations by updating both IPMs using index data of population size through 2024 in a predictive framework. Survival probabilities differed drastically between first-year and after-first-year individuals in both management populations. After-first-year survival was nearly identical between the NMP and SMP, but first-year survival was lower in the SMP. Mean productivity was significantly lower in the NMP compared to the SMP, whereas the probability of breeding was similar in both management populations. Estimated total abundance for the NMP was substantially larger than the SMP, representing most of the North American peregrine population. Population growth was positive for both management populations, albeit at a slower rate for the NMP. The NMP declined from 2017 to 2018 coinciding with a drop in 2018 estimated productivity. When we extended the IPMs with updated count data through 2024, the NMP slightly declined but estimated abundance remained above levels at the start of the time series analyzed. The SMP grew at a similar rate to that predicted during the period informed by demographic data. We did not detect a continental-scale change in population size or trajectory in either management population associated with the arrival of HPAI in 2021. Further monitoring can support determination of whether the declines in the NMP were temporary, can enhance understanding of the underlying mechanisms, and can be used to guide the conservation and management of the peregrine falcon population in North America.

North America↗

USGS2024

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) resource selection: Trade-offs between forage and predation risk

Ungulates commonly select habitat with higher forage biomass and or nutritional quality to improve body condition and fitness. However, predation risk can alter ungulate habitat selection and foraging behavior and may affect their nutritional condition. Ungulates often choose areas with lower predation risk, sometimes sacrificing higher quality forage. This forage–predation risk trade-off can be important for life history strategies and influences individual nutritional condition and population vital rates. We used GPS collar data from adult female mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) to model mule deer habitat selection in relation to forage conditions, stalking cover and predation risk from mountain lions to determine if a forage-predation risk trade-off existed for mule deer in central New Mexico. We also examined mountain lion kill sites and mule deer foraging locations to assess trade-offs at a finer scale. Forage biomass and protein content were inversely correlated with horizontal visibility, hence associated with higher stalking cover for mountain lions, suggesting a forage-predation risk trade-off for mule deer. Mule deer habitat selection was influenced by forage biomass and protein content at the landscape and within home range spatial scales, with forage protein being related to habitat selection during spring and summer and forage biomass during winter. However, mule deer selection for areas with better foraging conditions was constrained by landscape-scale encounter risk for mountain lions, such that increasing encounter risk was associated with diminished selection for areas with better foraging conditions. Mule deer also selected for areas with higher visibility when mountain lion predation risk was higher. Mountain lion kill sites were best explained by decreasing horizontal visibility and available forage protein, suggesting that deer may be selecting for forage quality at the cost of predation risk. A site was 1.5 times more likely to be a kill site with each 1-meter decrease in visibility (i.e., increased stalking cover). Mule deer selection of foraging sites was related to increased forage biomass, further supporting the potential for a trade-off scenario. Mule deer utilized spatio-temporal strategies and risk-conditional behavior to reduce predation risk, and at times selected suboptimal foraging areas with lower predation risk.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

Estimating allowable take for an increasing bald eagle population in the United States

Effectively managing take of wildlife resulting from human activities poses a major challenge for applied conservation. Demographic data essential to decisions regarding take are often expensive to collect and are either not available or based on limited studies for many species. Therefore, modeling approaches that efficiently integrate available information are important to improving the scientific basis for sustainable take thresholds. We used the prescribed take level (PTL) framework to estimate allowable take for bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) in the conterminous United States. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) that incorporates multiple sources of information and then use the model output as the scientific basis for components of the PTL framework. Our IPM is structured to identify key parameters needed for the PTL and to quantify uncertainties in those parameters at the scale at which the United States Fish and Wildlife Service manages take. Our IPM indicated that mean survival of birds >1 year old was high and precise (0.91, 95% CI = 0.90–0.92), whereas mean survival of first-year eagles was lower and more variable (0.69, 95% CI = 0.62–0.78). We assumed that density dependence influenced recruitment by affecting the probability of breeding, which was highly imprecise and estimated to have declined from approximately 0.988 (95% CI = 0.985–0.993) to 0.66 (95% CI = 0.34–0.99) between 1994 and 2018. We sampled values from the posterior distributions of the IPM for use in the PTL and estimated that allowable take (e.g., permitted take for energy development, incidental collisions with human made structures, or removal of nests for development) ranged from approximately 12,000 to 20,000 individual eagles depending on risk tolerance and form of density dependence at the scale of the conterminous United States excluding the Southwest. Model-based thresholds for allowable take can be inaccurate if the assumptions of the underlying framework are not met, if the influence of permitted take is under-estimated, or if undetected population declines occur from other sources. Continued monitoring and use of the IPM and PTL frameworks to identify key uncertainties in bald eagle population dynamics and management of allowable take can mitigate this potential bias, especially where improved information could reduce the risk of permitting non-sustainable take.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2021

Estimating abundance and simulating fertility control in feral burros

Overabundant populations of feral equids are negatively impacting rangelands in the western United States. To effectively manage these populations, robust estimates of abundance and demography are necessary, as well as cost-effective methods of reducing abundance. We used a double-observer-sightability aerial survey method to estimate the number of feral burros (Equus asinus) occupying the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), California, USA. We examined the efficacy of using porcine zona pellucida (PZP) immunocontraception as a control agent and used matrix population models to simulate how changes in demographic rates would influence abundance. We estimated there were 690 (CI: 618–752) feral burros within the surveyed area, but these are part of a much larger population that is not geographically isolated from those in the survey area. Sighting probabilities ranged from 0.19–0.98 and were most strongly influenced by distance from observer and group size. We estimated age-specific demographic rates at the NTC and compiled mean rates across burro populations in arid environments from the literature. Mean fecundity varied from 0.17 to 0.58 foals per adult female with younger females having lower fecundity. Mean survival was 0.90 for foals, 0.98 for yearlings, and 0.96 for adults. PZP vaccine treatment strategies that suppressed fertility for up to 10 years, predicted that burro abundance would be reduced by 67–88% after 15 years (compared with no treatment), but none of these strategies resulted in population extirpation. Our fieldwork also highlights the difficulty of administering PZP vaccination to large, free-ranging animals. Burro growth rates shifted from increasing to decreasing at adult survival rates below 0.84 and the population was predicted to become extirpated when adult survival declined below 0.60. In the absence of other methods to reduce burro numbers, our findings indicate that current formulations of PZP immunocontraception, which require multiple doses, would be inadequate for controlling population growth rates at the NTC and perhaps elsewhere. Development of longer-term fertility reduction agents and/or more efficient vaccine delivery techniques would likely improve the efficacy of fertility control for overabundant ungulate populations. Lack of geographic closure (physical barriers to migration) further complicates management efforts to reduce burro numbers.

California↗

USGS2020

Extreme drought and adaptive resource selection by a desert mammal

When animals select areas to occupy, decisions involve trade-offs between the fitness benefits of obtaining critical resources and minimizing costs of biotic and abiotic factors that constrain their use. These processes can be more dynamic and complex for species inhabiting desert environments, where highly variable spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation can create high intra- and inter-annual variability in forage conditions and water availability, and thermal constraints can differ significantly among seasons and diel periods. We examined resource selection in desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis mexicana ) in Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona, USA, at multiple spatial and temporal scales to gain insight into how a desert mammal responds to variations in climatic conditions. We used resource selection functions to test topographic, forage, and environmental features among seasons and diel periods, and between non-drought and drought conditions at the population and home-range scale. When precipitation was average, sheep selected for topographic features that were beneficial for predator avoidance (i.e., escape terrain—steep, rugged areas with high visibility) and locations near perennial water. When drought occurred, they ranged further from preferred escape terrain and perennial water, perhaps seeking forage conditions suitable to meet their nutritional requirements. On early (April–June) and late (July–September) summer days, sheep selected for more northerly aspects and locations with lower solar radiation, and in some periods, selection for these cooler areas coincided with periods when forage covariates, proximity to perennial water, and several topographic features were uninformative in resource selection models. These choices may be necessary trade-offs, foregoing good escape terrain and foraging areas, and access to water, for improved thermoregulation. This study highlights the importance of identifying resource selection at variable spatial and temporal scales when investigating the interrelationship between species and their environment. It provides insight into the dynamics of resource selection in desert mammals, and how they respond to constraints imposed on them by their environment. This work can serve to inform strategies for managing and conserving species living in arid environments when faced with climate change.

Arizona↗

USGS2018

An individual-based model for predicting dynamics of a newly established Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) population—Final report

Project Summary The Mexican wolf recovery team proposed to establish other populations of Mexican wolves ( Canis lupus baileyi ) in the Southwest (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1982). We were tasked to conduct an extensive simulation modeling exercise to determine release strategies (in conjunction with management actions) that best predict establishment of a new Mexican wolf population. Our objectives were to determine optimal release and management strategies for population establishment and growth. This is a retrospective analysis utilizing data from 1998 to 2014, and during this period, we divided management strategies into two phases; (1) 1998–2008, where nuisance wolves (i.e., wolves that exhibit nuisance behavior or depredate livestock) were managed primarily through lethal removals and removals to captivity, and (2) 2009–2014, when lethal removals ceased and diversionary feeding was provided to denning packs to dissuade wolves from conflict with humans. Management strategies from the second phase are being used for management of the current Mexican wolf population, and demographic rates derived from alternate population modeling in Vortex incorporating post-2008 wolf data are being used to guide future recovery efforts. Therefore, demographic rates estimated from our retrospective analysis will differ (i.e., due to our unique approach to the analyses and the demographic rates being derived from a different dataset), and are intended solely to address the objectives of this report, and are not intended as basis for the development of management recommendations for the current Mexican wolf population. Using individual-based models, we tested dozens of scenarios and derived an optimal release strategy that had the highest probability of establishing a new population and which maximized subsequent post-release growth, and in this report, we present these model results. Findings from this research will improve our understanding of release strategies that yield growing populations, advance our understanding of the demands of reintroducing large carnivores, and provide insight into beneficial strategies that could aid other species reintroduction programs.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2017

Extreme precipitation variability, forage quality and large herbivore diet selection in arid environments

Nutritional ecology forms the interface between environmental variability and large herbivore behaviour, life history characteristics, and population dynamics. Forage conditions in arid and semi-arid regions are driven by unpredictable spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall. Diet selection by herbivores should be directed towards overcoming the most pressing nutritional limitation (i.e. energy, protein [nitrogen, N], moisture) within the constraints imposed by temporal and spatial variability in forage conditions. We investigated the influence of precipitation-induced shifts in forage nutritional quality and subsequent large herbivore responses across widely varying precipitation conditions in an arid environment. Specifically, we assessed seasonal changes in diet breadth and forage selection of adult female desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis mexicana in relation to potential nutritional limitations in forage N, moisture and energy content (as proxied by dry matter digestibility, DMD). Succulents were consistently high in moisture but low in N and grasses were low in N and moisture until the wet period. Nitrogen and moisture content of shrubs and forbs varied among seasons and climatic periods, whereas trees had consistently high N and moderate moisture levels. Shrubs, trees and succulents composed most of the seasonal sheep diets but had little variation in DMD. Across all seasons during drought and during summer with average precipitation, forages selected by sheep were higher in N and moisture than that of available forage. Differences in DMD between sheep diets and available forage were minor. Diet breadth was lowest during drought and increased with precipitation, reflecting a reliance on few key forage species during drought. Overall, forage selection was more strongly associated with N and moisture content than energy content. Our study demonstrates that unlike north-temperate ungulates which are generally reported to be energy-limited, N and moisture may be more nutritionally limiting for desert ungulates than digestible energy.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

Potential foraging decisions by a desert ungulate to balance water and nutrient intake in a water-stressed environment

Arid climates have unpredictable precipitation patterns, and wildlife managers often provide supplemental water to help desert ungulates endure the hottest, driest periods. When surface water is unavailable, the only source of water for ungulates comes from the forage they consume, and they must make resourceful foraging decisions to meet their requirements. We compared two desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) populations in Arizona, USA: a treatment population with supplemental water removed during treatment, and a control population. We examined whether sheep altered their seasonal diets without supplemental water. We calculated water and nutrient intake and metabolic water production from dry matter intake and forage moisture and nitrogen content, to determine whether sheep could meet their seasonal daily water and nutrient requirements solely from forage. Diets of sheep were higher in protein (all seasons) and moisture (autumn and winter) during treatment compared to pretreatment. During treatment, sheep diet composition was similar between the treatment and control populations, which suggests, under the climatic conditions of this study, water removal did not influence sheep diets. We estimated that under drought conditions, without any surface water available (although small ephemeral potholes would contain water after rains), female and male sheep would be unable to meet their daily water requirements in all seasons, except winter, when reproductive females had a nitrogen deficit. We determined that sheep could achieve water and nutrient balances in all seasons by shifting their total diet proportions by 8–55% from lower to higher moisture and nitrogen forage species. We elucidate how seasonal forage quality and foraging decisions by desert ungulates allow them to cope with their xeric and uncertain environment, and suggest that, with the forage conditions observed in our study area during this study period, providing supplemental water during water-stressed periods may not be necessary for desert bighorn sheep.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

Ecosphere↗