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Jason W. Kean

Publications and source records attributed to Jason W. Kean.

90 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire flash floods and debris flows in the area burned by the Waldo Canyon fire, Colorado, USA

We present an objectively defined rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold for the initiation of flash floods and debris flows for basins recently burned in the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA. Our results are based on 453 rainfall records which include 8 instances of hazardous flooding and debris flow from 10 July 2012 to 14 August 2013. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow or flood occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. The equation I = 11.6D −0.7 represents the I-D threshold (I, in mm/h) for durations (D, in hours) ranging from 0.083 h (5 min) to 1 h for basins burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire. As periods of high-intensity rainfall over short durations (less than 1 h) produced all of the debris flow and flood events, real-time monitoring of rainfall conditions will result in very short lead times for early-warning. Our results highlight the need for improved forecasting of the rainfall rates during short-duration, high-intensity convective rainfall events.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

Landslide modeling and forecasting—recent progress by the u.s. geological survey

Landslide studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are focused on two main objectives: scientific understanding and forecasting. The first objective is to gain better understanding of the physical processes involved in landslide initiation and movement. This objective is largely in support of the second objective, to develop predictive capabilities to answer the main hazard questions. Answers to the following six questions are needed to characterize the hazard from landslides: (1) Where will landslides occur? (2) What kind(s) of landslides will occur? (3) When will landslides occur? (4) How big will the landslides be? (5) How fast will the landslides travel? (6) How far will the landslides go? Although these questions are sometimes recast in different terms, such as frequency or recurrence rather than timing (when), the questions or their variants address the spatial, physical, and temporal aspects of landslide hazards. Efforts to develop modeling and forecasting capabilities by the USGS are primarily focused on specific landslide types that pose a high degree of hazard and show relatively high potential for predictability.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

New insights into debris-flow hazards from an extraordinary event in the Colorado Front Range

Rainfall on 9–13 September 2013 triggered at least 1,138 debris flows in a 3430 km2 area of the Colorado Front Range. The historical record reveals that the occurrence of these flows over such a large area in the interior of North America is highly unusual. Rainfall that triggered the debris flows began after ~75 mm of antecedent rain had fallen, a relatively low amount compared to other parts of the United States. Most flows were triggered in response to two intense rainfall periods, one 12.5-hour-long period on 11–12 September, and one 8-hour-long period on 12 September. The maximum 10 min. intensities during these periods were 67 and 39 mm/hr. Ninety-five percent of flows initiated in canyons and on hogbacks at elevations lower than a widespread erosion surface of low slope and relief (<2600 m). These flows were on steep (>25°), predominantly south- and east-facing slopes with upslope contributing areas <3300 m2. Flows with the largest scars and longest travel distances occurred at elevations above 2600 m on steep slopes with contributing areas >3300 m2. Areal concentrations of debris flows revealed that colluvial soils formed on sedimentary rocks were more susceptible to flows than soils on crystalline rocks. This event should serve as an alert to government authorities, emergency responders, and residents in the Front Range and other interior continental areas with steep slopes. Widespread debris flows in these areas occur infrequently but may pose a greater risk than in areas with shorter return periods, because the public is typically unprepared for them.

Colorado, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Characterizing the primary material sources and dominant erosional processes for post-fire debris-flow initiation in a headwater basin using multi-temporal terrestrial laser scanning data

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce hazardous debris flows. Relative to shallow landslides, the primary sources of material and dominant erosional processes that contribute to post-fire debris-flow initiation are poorly constrained. Improving our understanding of how and where material is eroded from a watershed during a post-fire debris-flow requires (1) precise measurements of topographic change to calculate volumetric measurements of erosion and deposition, and (2) the identification of relevant morphometrically defined process domains to spatially constrain these measurements of erosion and deposition. In this study, we combine the morphometric analysis of a steep, small (0.01 km 2 ) headwater drainage basin with measurements of topographic change using high-resolution (2.5 cm) multi-temporal terrestrial laser scanning data made before and after a post-fire debris flow. The results of the morphometric analysis are used to define four process domains: hillslope-divergent, hillslope-convergent, transitional, and channelized incision. We determine that hillslope-divergent and hillslope-convergent process domains represent the primary sources of material over the period of analysis in the study basin. From these results we conclude that raindrop-impact induced erosion, ravel, surface wash, and rilling are the primary erosional processes contributing to post-fire debris-flow initiation in the small, steep headwater basin. Further work is needed to determine (1) how these results vary with increasing drainage basin size, (2) how these data might scale upward for use with coarser resolution measurements of topography, and (3) how these results change with evolving sediment supply conditions and vegetation recovery.

California↗
USGS2014

Landslides in the northern Colorado Front Range caused by rainfall, September 11-13, 2013

During the second week of September 2013, nearly continuous rainfall caused widespread landslides and flooding in the northern Colorado Front Range. The combination of landslides and flooding was responsible for eight fatalities and caused extensive damage to buildings, highways, and infrastructure. Three fatalities were attributed to a fast moving type of landslide called debris flow. One fatality occurred in Jamestown, and two occurred in the community of Pinebrook Hills immediately west of the City of Boulder. All major canyon roads in the northern Front Range were periodically closed between September 11 and 13, 2013. Some canyon closures were caused by undercutting of roads by landslides and flooding, and some were caused by debris flows and rock slides that deposited material on road surfaces. Most of the canyon roads, with the exceptions of U.S. Highway 6 (Clear Creek Canyon), State Highway 46/Jefferson Co. Rd. 70 (Golden Gate Canyon), and Sunshine Canyon in Boulder County, remained closed at the end of September 2013. A review of historical records in Colorado indicates that this type of event, with widespread landslides and flooding occurring over a very large region, in such a short period of time, is rare.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km 2 ) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km 2 ). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

California;Colorado↗
USGS2012

Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements from the headwaters of a steep catchment

Debris flows can dramatically increase their volume, and hence their destructive potential, by entraining sediment. Yet quantitative constraints on rates and mechanics of sediment entrainment by debris flows are limited. Using an in situ sensor network in the headwaters of a natural catchment we measured flow and bed properties during six erosive debris-flow events. Despite similar flow properties and thicknesses of bed sediment entrained across all events, time-averaged entrainment rates were significantly faster for bed sediment that was saturated prior to flow arrival compared with rates for sediment that was dry. Bed sediment was entrained from the sediment-surface downward in a progressive fashion and occurred during passage of dense granular fronts as well as water-rich, inter-surge flow. En masse failure of bed sediment along the sediment-bedrock interface was never observed. Large-magnitude, high-frequency fluctuations in total normal basal stress were dissipated within the upper 5 cm of bed sediment. Within this near surface layer, concomitant fluctuations in Coulomb frictional resistance are expected, irrespective of the influence of pore fluid pressure or fluctuations in shear stress. If the near-surface sediment was wet as it was overridden by a flow, additional large-magnitude, high-frequency pore pressure fluctuations were measured in the near-surface bed sediment. These pore pressure fluctuations propagated to depth at subsonic rates and in a diffusive manner. The depth to which large excess pore pressures propagated was typically less than 10 cm, but scaled as ( D / f i ) 0.5 , in which D is the hydraulic diffusivity and f i is the frequency of a particular pore pressure fluctuation. Shallow penetration depths of granular-normal-stress fluctuations and excess pore pressures demonstrate that only near-surface bed sediment experiences the full dynamic range of effective-stress fluctuations, and as a result, can be more easily entrained than deeper sediment. These data provide robust tests for mechanical models of entrainment and demonstrate that a debris flow over wet bed sediment will be larger than the same flow over dry bed sediment.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds.

Landslides↗
USGS2012

A low-cost method to measure the timing of post-fire flash floods and debris flows relative to rainfall

Data on the specific timing of post-fire flash floods and debris flows are very limited. We describe a method to measure the response times of small burned watersheds to rainfall using a low-cost pressure transducer, which can be installed quickly after a fire. Although the pressure transducer is not designed for sustained sampling at the fast rates ({less than or equal to}2 sec) used at more advanced debris-flow monitoring sites, comparisons with high-data rate stage data show that measured spikes in pressure sampled at 1-min intervals are sufficient to detect the passage of most debris flows and floods. Post-event site visits are used to measure the peak stage and identify flow type based on deposit characteristics. The basin response timescale (tb) to generate flow at each site was determined from an analysis of the cross correlation between time series of flow pressure and 5-min rainfall intensity. This timescale was found to be less than 30 minutes for 40 post-fire floods and 11 post-fire debris flows recorded in 15 southern California watersheds ({less than or equal to} 1.4 km 2 ). Including data from 24 other debris flows recorded at 5 more instrumentally advanced monitoring stations, we find there is not a substantial difference in the median tb for floods and debris flows (11 and 9 minutes, respectively); however, there are slight, statistically significant differences in the trends of flood and debris-flow tb with basin area, which are presumably related to differences in flow speed between floods and debris flows.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2012

Modelling rating curves using remotely sensed LiDAR data

Accurate stream discharge measurements are important for many hydrological studies. In remote locations, however, it is often difficult to obtain stream flow information because of the difficulty in making the discharge measurements necessary to define stage-discharge relationships (rating curves). This study investigates the feasibility of defining rating curves by using a fluid mechanics-based model constrained with topographic data from an airborne LiDAR scanning. The study was carried out for an 8m-wide channel in the boreal landscape of northern Sweden. LiDAR data were used to define channel geometry above a low flow water surface along the 90-m surveyed reach. The channel topography below the water surface was estimated using the simple assumption of a flat streambed. The roughness for the modelled reach was back calculated from a single measurment of discharge. The topographic and roughness information was then used to model a rating curve. To isolate the potential influence of the flat bed assumption, a 'hybrid model' rating curve was developed on the basis of data combined from the LiDAR scan and a detailed ground survey. Whereas this hybrid model rating curve was in agreement with the direct measurements of discharge, the LiDAR model rating curve was equally in agreement with the medium and high flow measurements based on confidence intervals calculated from the direct measurements. The discrepancy between the LiDAR model rating curve and the low flow measurements was likely due to reduced roughness associated with unresolved submerged bed topography. Scanning during periods of low flow can help minimize this deficiency. These results suggest that combined ground surveys and LiDAR scans or multifrequency LiDAR scans that see 'below' the water surface (bathymetric LiDAR) could be useful in generating data needed to run such a fluid mechanics-based model. This opens a realm of possibility to remotely sense and monitor stream flows in channels in remote locations.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2012

Real-time monitoring of landslides

Landslides cause fatalities and property damage throughout the Nation. To reduce the impact from hazardous landslides, the U.S. Geological Survey develops and uses real-time and near-real-time landslide monitoring systems. Monitoring can detect when hillslopes are primed for sliding and can provide early indications of rapid, catastrophic movement. Continuous information from up-to-the-minute or real-time monitoring provides prompt notification of landslide activity, advances our understanding of landslide behavior, and enables more effective engineering and planning efforts.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2011

Value of a dual-polarized gap-filling radar in support of southern California post-fire debris-flow warnings

A portable truck-mounted C-band Doppler weather radar was deployed to observe rainfall over the Station Fire burn area near Los Angeles, California, during the winter of 2009/10 to assist with debris-flow warning decisions. The deployments were a component of a joint NOAA–U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research effort to improve definition of the rainfall conditions that trigger debris flows from steep topography within recent wildfire burn areas. A procedure was implemented to blend various dual-polarized estimators of precipitation (for radar observations taken below the freezing level) using threshold values for differential reflectivity and specific differential phase shift that improves the accuracy of the rainfall estimates over a specific burn area sited with terrestrial tipping-bucket rain gauges. The portable radar outperformed local Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) National Weather Service network radars in detecting rainfall capable of initiating post-fire runoff-generated debris flows. The network radars underestimated hourly precipitation totals by about 50%. Consistent with intensity–duration threshold curves determined from past debris-flow events in burned areas in Southern California, the portable radar-derived rainfall rates exceeded the empirical thresholds over a wider range of storm durations with a higher spatial resolution than local National Weather Service operational radars. Moreover, the truck-mounted C-band radar dual-polarimetric-derived estimates of rainfall intensity provided a better guide to the expected severity of debris-flow events, based on criteria derived from previous events using rain gauge data, than traditional radar-derived rainfall approaches using reflectivity–rainfall relationships for either the portable or operational network WSR-88D radars. Part of the reason for the improvement was due to siting the radar closer to the burn zone than the WSR-88Ds, but use of the dual-polarimetric variables improved the rainfall estimation by ~12% over the use of traditional Z – R relationships.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2011

Observations of debris flows at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA: Part 1, in-situ measurements of flow dynamics, tracer particle movement and video imagery from the summer of 2009

Debris flows initiated by surface-water runoff during short duration, moderate- to high-intensity rainfall are common in steep, rocky, and sparsely vegetated terrain. Yet large uncertainties remain about the potential for a flow to grow through entrainment of loose debris, which make formulation of accurate mechanical models of debris-flow routing difficult. Using a combination of in situ measurements of debris flow dynamics, video imagery, tracer rocks implanted with passive integrated transponders (PIT) and pre- and post-flow 2-cm resolution digital terrain models (terrain data presented in a companion paper by STALEY et alii, 2011), we investigated the entrainment and transport response of debris flows at Chalk Cliffs, CO, USA. Four monitored events during the summer of 2009 all initiated from surface-water runoff, generally less than an hour after the first measurable rain. Despite reach-scale morphology that remained relatively constant, the four flow events displayed a range of responses, from long-runout flows that entrained significant amounts of channel sediment and dammed the main-stem river, to smaller, short-runout flows that were primarily depositional in the upper basin. Tracer-rock travel-distance distributions for these events were bimodal; particles either remained immobile or they travelled the entire length of the catchment. The long-runout, large-entrainment flow differed from the other smaller flows by the following controlling factors: peak 10-minute rain intensity; duration of significant flow in the channel; and to a lesser extent, peak surge depth and velocity. Our growing database of natural debris-flow events can be used to develop linkages between observed debris-flow transport and entrainment responses and the controlling rainstorm characteristics and flow properties.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Observations of debris flows at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA: Part 2, changes in surface morphometry from terrestrial laser scanning in the summer of 2009

High resolution topographic data that quantify changes in channel form caused by sequential debris flows in natural channels are rare at the reach scale. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) techniques are utilized to capture morphological changes brought about by a high-frequency of debris-flow events at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the topographic response of a natural channel to the documented debris-flow events. TLS survey data allowed for the generation of high-resolution (2-cm) digital terrain models (DTM) of the channel. A robust network of twelve permanent control points permitted repeat scanning sessions that provided multiple DTM to evaluate fine-scale topographic change associated with three debris-flow events. Difference surfaces from the DTM permit the interpretations of spatial variations in channel morphometry and net volume of material deposited and eroded within and between a series of channel reaches. Each channel reach experienced erosion, deposition, and both net volumetric gains and losses were measured. Analysis of potential relationships between erosion and deposition magnitudes yielded no strong correlations with measures of channel-reach morphometry, suggesting that channel reach-specific predictions of potential erosion or deposition locations or rates cannot be adequately derived from statistical analyses of pre-event channel-reach morphometry.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Hydrologic conditions and terrestrial laser scanning of post-fire debris flows in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, U.S.A.

To investigate rainfall-runoff conditions that generate post-wildfire debris flows, we instrumented and surveyed steep, small watersheds along the tectonically active front of the San Gabriel Mountains, California. Fortuitously, we recorded runoff-generated debris-flows triggered by one spatially restricted convective event with 28 mm of rainfall falling over 62 minutes. Our rain gages, nested hillslope overland-flow sensors and soil-moisture probes, as well as a time series of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) revealed the effects of the storm. Hillslope overland-flow response, along two ~10-m long flow lines perpendicular to and originating from a drainage divide, displayed only a 10 to 20 minute delay from the onset of rainfall with accumulated totals of merely 5-10 mm. Depth-stratified soil-moisture probes displayed a greater time delay, roughly 20- 30 minutes, indicating that initial overland flow was Hortonian. Furthermore, a downstream channel-monitoring array recorded a pronounced discharge peak generated by the passage of a debris flow after 18 minutes of rainfall. At this time, only four of the eleven hillslope overlandflow sensors confirmed the presence of surface-water flow. Repeat TLS and detailed field mapping using GPS document how patterns of rainsplash, overland-flow scour, and rilling contributed to the generation of meter-scale debris flows. In response to a single small storm, the debris flows deposited irregular levees and lobate terminal snouts on hillslopes and caused widespread erosion of the valley axis with ground surface lowering exceeding 1.5 m.

California↗
USGS2010

Relations Between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are faced often with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storms themselves. Information critical to this process is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second 12-hour period. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of the postfire hydrologic response. The four-class system is based on a combination of the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions associated with debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow and flood magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) above which magnitude I events are expected are defined by A=0.3D0.6. The function A=0.5D0.6 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.0D0.5defines the rainfall conditions above which magnitude III events can be expected. Rainfall trigger-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions in the form of an emergency-response decision chart. The chart leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes, and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels as a function of either individual storm forecasts or measured precipitation during storms. The ability to use this information in the planning and response decision-making process may result in significant financial savings and increased safety for both the public and emergency responders.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Field Reconnaissance of Debris Flows Triggered by a July 21, 2007, Thunderstorm in Alpine, Colorado, and Vicinity

On the evening of July 21, 2007, a slow-moving thunderstorm triggered about 45 debris flows on steep mountainsides near the community of Alpine, Colorado. Most of the debris flows were initiated by surface-water runoff that eroded and entrained loose sediment in previously existing channels. About 12 of the debris-flow channels were located in the lower half of Weldon Gulch upslope from Alpine, which is on a debris fan at the mouth of the Gulch. Most of these channels were deeply incised by the flows, and many of the resulting oversteepened channel banks are now failing and beginning to refill the channels with sediment. Debris flows that emerged from the mouth of Weldon Gulch primarily flowed onto the eastern half of the debris fan and closed roads and damaged vehicles and structures. Debris-flow deposits on the fan generally become finer grained and thinner with distance from the head of the fan. Given the existing conditions in Weldon Gulch, it is estimated that the debris-flow hazard on the fan has neither decreased nor increased as a result of the July 21 debris flows. Preventive measures that need to be considered by Alpine residents and government officials concerned with safety on the fan include: (1) establishing a channel and(or) catchment/diversion structure on the fan that routes future water and debris flows in a manner that protects existing roads and structures, and (2) maintaining vigilance during rainstorms by watching and listening for unusual flows of water or debris that may indicate debris-flow activity upstream, particularly during the summer months when thunderstorms are common in the area.

Open-File Report↗