Geology topics

Jason P. Pope

Publications and source records attributed to Jason P. Pope.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis based on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore indicates that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system because of local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have altered groundwater flow from predevelopment conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers is a relatively small part of the total groundwater budget for the aquifer system compared to the rate of recharge at the land surface. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model indicate that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal waterbodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2023, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. For the most recent simulated conditions (2023) downward groundwater flow continues, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, rates of downward flow are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, even though that was not measured in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, indicate that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up more than 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. For the most recent simulated period (2023), estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The reported withdrawal rate for this period from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Virginia Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and low rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

Virginia↗

USGS2026

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of Virginia’s Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis conducted on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore shows that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system due to local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have fundamentally altered groundwater flow from pre-development conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers supplying groundwater is a relatively small portion of the total groundwater water budget for the aquifer system. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model show that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal water bodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer currently is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from areas outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2025, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum have resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or in adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. Downward groundwater flow continues under current conditions, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, those rates are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Estimated groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, though that was not measured directly in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, show that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up over 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. Currently, estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The current withdrawal rate from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and small rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

EarthArXiv↗

USGS2025

Estimated hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal distribution of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals for aquifers of the Virginia Coastal Plain

Water use from private-domestic wells accounts for nearly 40 percent of total groundwater withdrawals in the Virginia Coastal Plain Physiographic Province (henceforth called the Virginia Coastal Plain). However, because self-supplied domestic water use generally falls below the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) reporting and management threshold of 300,000 gallons per month, quantifying these withdrawals is challenging. This report builds upon the foundation of previous U.S. Geological Survey investigations by providing revised techniques to improve estimates of the aquifer source, spatial distribution, and monthly magnitude of these groundwater withdrawals. The aquifer sources of private-domestic wells in the Virginia Coastal Plain were estimated by cross-referencing 8,264 well records from the VDEQ and the Virginia Department of Health to a digital model of the Virginia Coastal Plain hydrogeologic framework. This analysis highlights the regional importance of the Yorktown-Eastover, Potomac, and surficial aquifers. Collectively, these three aquifers account for 80 percent of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals. The population using self-supplied domestic water was estimated using census blocks, well-use ratios, building footprints, and land-use and land-cover data to produce a high-resolution, disaggregated, raster-based dataset. This approach improves upon previous models at the census-block or road-network scale by reducing the low-density spread of the self-supplied domestic population across undeveloped areas and concentrating the population and its corresponding water use in the areas where it is most likely to occur. Results show that an estimated 475,332 people comprise the 2020 self-supplied domestic population of the Virginia Coastal Plain, an increase of 5.7 percent since 2010, and the greatest concentrations of self-supplied domestic population surround large cities. Estimates could be further refined with the addition of current and complete spatial data on public water-system service areas. The quantity of water used by the self-supplied domestic population was estimated by modifying published state per-capita water-use coefficients with the corresponding monthly variability assessed from Virginia Coastal Plain public water-system withdrawal data. This analysis estimates an average increase of 12 percent from June through August and an average decrease of 8 percent from December through March from the baseline annual average of 80 gallons per day per capita, which generally matches similar studies in the eastern United States. The application of these revised methodologies for the estimation of private-domestic wells and the self-supplied domestic population improves understanding of domestic groundwater use in the Virginia Coastal Plain across hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal scales. These revisions help better inform water-resource managers and decision makers and support higher resolution groundwater modeling. Furthermore, these methods are transferrable to other areas where self-supplied domestic water withdrawals are important to the overall water budget.

Virginia↗

USGS2020

Machine-learning models to map pH and redox conditions in groundwater in a layered aquifer system, Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, eastern USA

Study region The study was conducted in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, in the eastern USA. Study focus Groundwater pH and redox conditions are fundamental chemical characteristics controlling the distribution of many contaminants of concern for drinking water or the ecological health of receiving waters. In this study, pH and redox conditions were modeled and mapped in a complex, layered aquifer system. Machine-learning methods (boosted regression trees) were applied to data from 3000 to 5000 wells. Predicted pH and the probability of anoxic conditions, defined by three thresholds of dissolved oxygen (0.5, 1, and 2 mg/L), were mapped at the 1-km 2 scale for each of 10 regional aquifer layers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Maps depict the extent of acidic groundwater and oxic conditions in the shallow, unconfined surficial aquifer and in unconfined, recharge-proximal areas of underlying aquifers, in contrast to alkaline and anoxic groundwater elsewhere. Geographic patterns and influential predictors–including elevation, overlying confining-units thickness, and simulated groundwater age and flux–are consistent with prior understanding of the processes controlling pH and redox in the aquifer system. The model-based maps support robust estimates of aquifer proportions, either areal or volumetric, likely to contain groundwater of a specified quality or be vulnerable to specific pH- or redox-sensitive contaminants. The machine-learning methods were an effective tool to map groundwater quality at the regional scale.

New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia↗

USGS2016

Digital elevations and extents of regional hydrogeologic units in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Digital geospatial datasets of the extents and top elevations of the regional hydrogeologic units of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina were developed to provide an updated hydrogeologic framework to support analysis of groundwater resources. The 19 regional hydrogeologic units were delineated by elevation grids and extent polygons for 20 layers: the land and bathymetric surface at the top of the unconfined surficial aquifer, the upper surfaces of 9 confined aquifers and 9 confining units, and the bedrock surface that defines the base of all Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments. The delineation of the regional hydrogeologic units relied on the interpretive work from source reports for New York, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina rather than from re-analysis of fundamental hydrogeologic data. This model of regional hydrogeologic unit geometries represents interpolation, extrapolation, and generalization of the earlier interpretive work. Regional units were constructed from available digital data layers from the source studies in order to extend units consistently across political boundaries and approximate units in offshore areas. Though many of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain hydrogeologic units may extend eastward as far as the edge of the Atlantic Continental Shelf, the modeled boundaries of all regional hydrogeologic units in this study were clipped to an area approximately defined by the furthest offshore extent of fresh to brackish water in any part of the aquifer system, as indicated by chloride concentrations of 10,000 milligrams per liter. Elevations and extents of units that do not exist onshore in Long Island, New York, were not included north of New Jersey. Hydrogeologic units in North Carolina were included primarily to provide continuity across the Virginia-North Carolina State boundary, which was important for defining the southern edge of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain study area.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

USGS2016

Sustainability of groundwater supplies in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system

Groundwater is the Nation’s principal reserve of freshwater. It provides about half our drinking water, is essential to food production, and facilitates business and industry in developing economic well-being. Groundwater is also an important source of water for sustaining the ecosystem health of rivers, wetlands, and estuaries throughout the country. The decreases in groundwater levels and other effects of pumping that result from large-scale development of groundwater resources have led to concerns about the future availability of groundwater to meet all our Nation’s needs. Assessments of groundwater availability provide the science and information needed by the public and decision makers to manage water resources and use them responsibly. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting large-scale multidisciplinary regional studies of groundwater availability as part of its ongoing assessments of the principal aquifers of the Nation. These regional studies are intended to provide citizens, communities, and natural resource managers with knowledge of the status of the Nation’s groundwater resources and how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected and are likely to affect those resources now and in the future.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2016

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

USGS2016

Documentation of a groundwater flow model developed to assess groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area. The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation used the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent changes in groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge from predevelopment (before 1900) to future conditions, from 1900 to 2058. The model was constructed using existing hydrogeologic and geospatial information to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and hydraulic properties of the 19 separate regional aquifers and confining units within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation (PEST) technique. The parameter estimation process was achieved through history matching, using observations of heads and flows for both steady-state and transient conditions. A total of 8,868 annual water-level observations from 644 wells from 1986 to 2008 were combined into 29 water-level observation groups that were chosen to focus the history matching on specific hydrogeologic units in geographic areas in which distinct geologic and hydrologic conditions were observed. In addition to absolute water-level elevations, the water-level differences between individual measurements were also included in the parameter estimation process to remove the systematic bias caused by missing hydrologic stresses prior to 1986. The total average residual of –1.7 feet was normally distributed for all head groups, indicating minimal bias. The average absolute residual value of 12.3 feet is about 3 percent of the total observed water-level range throughout the aquifer system. Streamflow observation data of base flow conditions were derived for 153 sites from the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset Plus and National Water Information System. An average residual of about –8 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 21 cubic feet per second for a range of computed base flows of about 417 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 122 sites from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus. An average residual of about 10 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 34 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 568 flow measurements in the 31 sites obtained from the National Water Information System for a range in computed base flows of about 1,141 cubic feet per second. The numerical representation of the hydrogeologic information used in the development of this regional flow model was dependent upon how the aquifer system and simulated hydrologic stresses were discretized in space and time. Lumping hydraulic parameters in space and hydrologic stresses and time-varying observational data in time can limit the capabilities of this tool to simulate how the groundwater flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses, particularly at the local scale.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

USGS2015

Estimating mean long-term hydrologic budget components for watersheds and counties: An application to the commonwealth of Virginia, USA

Mean long-term hydrologic budget components, such as recharge and base flow, are often difficult to estimate because they can vary substantially in space and time. Mean long-term fluxes were calculated in this study for precipitation, surface runoff, infiltration, total evapotranspiration (ET), riparian ET, recharge, base flow (or groundwater discharge) and net total outflow using long-term estimates of mean ET and precipitation and the assumption that the relative change in storage over that 30-year period is small compared to the total ET or precipitation. Fluxes of these components were first estimated on a number of real-time-gaged watersheds across Virginia. Specific conductance was used to distinguish and separate surface runoff from base flow. Specific-conductance (SC) data were collected every 15 minutes at 75 real-time gages for approximately 18 months between March 2007 and August 2008. Precipitation was estimated for 1971-2000 using PRISM climate data. Precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data were used to develop a regression-based relation to estimate total ET. The proportion of watershed precipitation that becomes surface runoff was related to physiographic province and rock type in a runoff regression equation. A new approach to estimate riparian ET using seasonal SC data gave results consistent with those from other methods. Component flux estimates from the watersheds were transferred to flux estimates for counties and independent cities using the ET and runoff regression equations. Only 48 of the 75 watersheds yielded sufficient data, and data from these 48 were used in the final runoff regression equation. Final results for the study are presented as component flux estimates for all counties and independent cities in Virginia. The method has the potential to be applied in many other states in the U.S. or in other regions or countries of the world where climate and stream flow data are plentiful.

Hydrology: Current Research↗

USGS2013

Hydrogeology and hydrologic conditions of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer System from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain forms a complex groundwater system. This major source of water provides for public and domestic supply and serves as a vital source of freshwater for industrial and agricultural uses throughout the region. Population increases and land-use and climate changes, however, have led to competing demands for water. The regional response of the aquifer system to these stresses poses regional challenges for water-resources management at the State level because hydrologic effects often extend beyond State boundaries. In response to these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program began a regional assessment of the groundwater availability of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system in 2010. The initial phase of this investigation included a refinement of the hydrogeologic framework and an updated hydrologic budget of this aquifer system from the last regional aquifer system assessment completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in the 1980s. Refinements to the hydrogeologic framework include revision of the regional aquifer names to be more consistent with local names in New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, the primary States included in the study area. Other revisions to the framework include characterization of the aquifers of the regional Potomac aquifer system. The regional Potomac aquifer system is subdivided for this report into two regional aquifers. These aquifers include the single Potomac aquifer in Virginia and two aquifers in Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, where the Potomac aquifer system thickens within the Salisbury Embayment. The two regional aquifers making up the Potomac aquifer system include the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer and the underlying Potomac-Patuxent aquifer. The Potomac-Patuxent aquifer includes the Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer in southern New Jersey and the Patuxent aquifers in Delaware and Maryland. In northern New Jersey and on Long Island, New York, the PotomacPatuxent aquifer is absent, but the Late Cretaceous fluvialdeltaic aquifer that is laterally equivalent with the upper part of the Potomac Formation now is considered part of the regional Potomac-Patapsco aquifer. This aquifer includes the Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer in New Jersey and the Lloyd aquifer on Long Island. The name “Upper Potomac aquifer” has been removed as part of this regional framework revision. The local aquifer previously considered part of the Upper Potomac aquifer now are part of the regional Magothy aquifer. These units include the Upper Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer in New Jersey, the Magothy aquifers on Long Island, Delaware, and Maryland, and the Virginia Beach aquifer in Virginia. Updates to the regional hydrologic budget include revised estimates of aquifer recharge, water use and streamflow data. Inflow to the aquifer system of about 20,000 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) includes 19,600 Mgal/d from recharge from precipitation, 200 Mgal/d of recharge from wastewater via onsite domestic septic systems, and 200 Mgal/d from the release of water from aquifer storage. Outflow from the aquifer system includes groundwater discharge to streams (11,900 Mgal/d), groundwater withdrawals (1,500 Mgal/d), and groundwater discharge to coastal waters (6,600 Mgal/d). A numerical modeling analysis is required to improve this hydrologic budget calculation and to forecast future changes in water levels and aquifer storage caused by groundwater withdrawals, land-use changes, and the effects of climate variability and change.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

USGS2013

Quantifying groundwater’s role in delaying improvements to Chesapeake Bay water quality

A study has been undertaken to determine the time required for the effects of nitrogen-reducing best management practices (BMPs) implemented at the land surface to reach the Chesapeake Bay via groundwater transport to streams. To accomplish this, a nitrogen mass-balance regression (NMBR) model was developed and applied to seven watersheds on the Delmarva Peninsula. The model included the distribution of groundwater return times obtained from a regional groundwater-flow (GWF) model, the history of nitrogen application at the land surface over the last century, and parameters that account for denitrification. The model was (1) able to reproduce nitrate concentrations in streams and wells over time, including a recent decline in the rate at which concentrations have been increasing, and (2) used to forecast future nitrogen delivery from the Delmarva Peninsula to the Bay given different scenarios of nitrogen load reduction to the water table. The relatively deep porous aquifers of the Delmarva yield longer groundwater return times than those reported earlier for western parts of the Bay watershed. Accordingly, several decades will be required to see the full effects of current and future BMPs. The magnitude of this time lag is critical information for Chesapeake Bay watershed managers and stakeholders.

Delaware, Maryland↗

USGS2012

Simulation of groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of the Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland and Delaware

Estimating future loadings of nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay requires knowledge about the groundwater flow system and the traveltime of water and chemicals between recharge at the water table and the discharge to streams and directly to the bay. The Delmarva Peninsula has a relatively large proportion of its land devoted to agriculture and a large associated nitrogen load in groundwater that has the potential to enter the bay in discharging groundwater. To better understand the shallow aquifer system with respect to this loading and the traveltime to the bay, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a steady-state groundwater flow model for the region. The model is based on estimates of recharge calculated using recently developed regression equations for evapotranspiration and surface runoff. The hydrogeologic framework incorporated into the model includes unconfined surficial aquifer sediments, as well as subcropping confined aquifers and confining beds down to 300 feet below land surface. The model was calibrated using 48 water-level measurements and 24 tracer-based ages from wells located across the peninsula. The resulting steady-state flow solution was used to estimate ages of water in the shallow aquifer system through the peninsula and the distribution and magnitude of groundwater traveltime from recharge at the water table to discharge in surface-water bodies (referred to as return time). Return times vary but are typically less than 10 years near local streams and greater than 100 years near the stream divides. The model can be used to calculate nitrate transport parameters in various local watersheds and predict future trends in nitrate loadings to Chesapeake Bay for different future nitrogen application scenarios.

Delaware;Maryl↗

USGS2012

Characterization of major-ion chemistry and nutrients in headwater streams along the Appalachian National Scenic Trail and within adjacent watersheds, Maine to Georgia

An inventory of water-quality data on field parameters, major ions, and nutrients provided a summary of water quality in headwater (first- and second-order) streams within watersheds along the Appalachian National Scenic Trail (Appalachian Trail). Data from 1,817 sampling sites in 831 catchments were used for the water-quality summary. Catchment delineations from NHDPlus were used as the fundamental geographic units for this project. Criteria used to evaluate sampling sites for inclusion were based on selected physical attributes of the catchments adjacent to the Appalachian Trail, including stream elevation, percentage of developed land cover, and percentage of agricultural land cover. The headwater streams of the Appalachian Trail are generally dilute waters, with low pH, low acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), and low concentrations of nutrients. The median pH value was slightly acidic at 6.7; the median specific conductance value was 23.6 microsiemens per centimeter, and the median ANC value was 98.7 milliequivalents per liter (μeq/L). Median concentrations of cations (calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium) were each less than 1.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), and median concentrations of anions (bicarbonate, chloride, fluoride, sulfate, and nitrate) were less than 10 mg/L. Differences in water-quality constituent levels along the Appalachian Trail may be related to elevation, atmospheric deposition, geology, and land cover. Spatial variations were summarized by ecological sections (ecosections) developed by the U.S. Forest Service. Specific conductance, pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate) were all negatively correlated with elevation. The highest elevation ecosections (White Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, and Allegheny Mountains) had the lowest pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions. The lowest elevation ecosections (Lower New England and Hudson Valley) generally had the highest pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions. The geology in discrete portions of these two ecosections was classified as containing carbonate minerals which has likely influenced the chemical character of the streamwater. Specific conductance, pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate) were all positively correlated with percentages of developed and agricultural land uses at the lower elevations of the central region of the Appalachian Trail (including the Green-Taconic-Berkshire Mountains, Lower New England, Hudson Valley, and Northern Ridge and Valley ecosections). The distinctly different chemical character of the streams in the central sections of the Appalachian Trail is likely related to the lower elevations, the presence of carbonate minerals in the geology, higher percentages of developed and agricultural land uses, and possibly the higher inputs of sulfate and nitrate from atmospheric deposition. Acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate are important influences on the acid-base chemistry of the surface waters of the Appalachian Trail. Atmospheric deposition estimates are consistently high (more than 18 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for sulfate, and more than 16 kg/ha for nitrate) at both the highest and lowest elevations. However, the lowest elevation (Green-Taconic-Berkshire Mountains, Lower New England, Hudson Valley, Northern Glaciated Allegheny Plateau, and Northern Ridge and Valley ecosections) included the largest spatial area of sustained high estimates of atmospheric deposition. Calcium-bicarbonate was the most frequently calculated water type in the Lower New England and Hudson Valley ecosections. In the northern and southern sections of the Appalachian Trail mix-cation water types were most prevalent and sulfate was the predominate anion. The predominance of the sulfate anion in the surface waters of the northern and southern ecosections likely reflects the influence of sulfate deposition. Although the central portion of the Appalachian Trail has the largest spatial area of high atmospheric acid deposition, the lower ionic strength waters in the northern and southern ecosections of the Appalachian Trail may have been more adversely affected by acid deposition. The low ionic strength of the streams in the White Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, and Allegheny Mountains ecosections makes parts of these regions susceptible to seasonal or event-driven episodic acidification, which can be detrimental to health of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Median catchment ANC values were classified into three groups - acidic, sensitive, and insensitive. The White Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, and Allegheny Mountains ecosections included the highest frequency of catchments classified as acidic or sensitive. More than 56 percent of the catchments from the White Mountains ecosection were classified as sensitive to acidic inputs. In the Blue Ridge ecosection, 1.6 percent of the catchments were classified as acidic, and 38.2 percent of the catchments were classified as sensitive to acidic inputs. In the Allegheny Mountains ecosection, 17.6 percent of the catchments were classified as acidic, and 29.4 percent of the catchments were classified as sensitive to acidic inputs. Median concentrations of nitrogen species were less than 0.4 mg/L, and median concentrations of total phosphorus were less than 0.02 mg/L along the Appalachian Trail. A comparison of median catchment concentrations of nutrients to estimated national background concentrations demonstrated that concentrations along the Appalachian Trail are generally lower. A comparison of median concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) nutrient criteria for the Eastern U.S. ecoregions showed that the concentrations of total nitrogen in the northern section of the Appalachian Trail were generally higher than the USEPA criterion. Similarly, median concentrations of total phosphorus in the southern regions of the Appalachian Trail were approximately twice as high as USEPA criteria. Sections of the Appalachian Trail are adjacent to modest amounts of agricultural and developed land areas. These nonforested land areas may be contributing to the percentage of catchments in which concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus are higher than USEPA nutrient ecoregion criteria.

Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryla↗

USGS2012

Quantifying components of the hydrologic cycle in Virginia using chemical hydrograph separation and multiple regression analysis

This study by the U.S. Geological Survey, prepared in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, quantifies the components of the hydrologic cycle across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Long-term, mean fluxes were calculated for precipitation, surface runoff, infiltration, total evapotranspiration (ET), riparian ET, recharge, base flow (or groundwater discharge) and net total outflow. Fluxes of these components were first estimated on a number of real-time-gaged watersheds across Virginia. Specific conductance was used to distinguish and separate surface runoff from base flow. Specific-conductance data were collected every 15 minutes at 75 real-time gages for approximately 18 months between March 2007 and August 2008. Precipitation was estimated for 1971–2000 using PRISM climate data. Precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data were used to develop a regression-based relation to estimate total ET. The proportion of watershed precipitation that becomes surface runoff was related to physiographic province and rock type in a runoff regression equation. Component flux estimates from the watersheds were transferred to flux estimates for counties and independent cities using the ET and runoff regression equations. Only 48 of the 75 watersheds yielded sufficient data, and data from these 48 were used in the final runoff regression equation. The base-flow proportion for the 48 watersheds averaged 72 percent using specific conductance, a value that was substantially higher than the 61 percent average calculated using a graphical-separation technique (the USGS program PART). Final results for the study are presented as component flux estimates for all counties and independent cities in Virginia.

Virginia↗

USGS2011

Assessing groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system

The U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Program is conducting an assessment of groundwater availability throughout the United States to gain a better understanding of the status of the Nation's groundwater resources and how changes in land use, water use, and climate may affect those resources. The goal of this National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for the Nation's principal aquifer systems to help characterize how much water is currently available, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). The concept of groundwater availability is more than just how much water can be pumped from any given aquifer. Groundwater availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The primary objective of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain groundwater-availability study is to identify spatial and temporal changes in the overall water budget by more fully determining the natural and human processes that control how water enters, moves through, and leaves the groundwater system. Development of tools such as numerical models can help hydrologists gain an understanding of this groundwater system, allowing forecasts to be made about the response of this system to natural and human stresses, and water quality and ecosystem health to be analyzed, throughout the region.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2009

Current challenges using models to forecast seawater intrusion: lessons from the Eastern Shore of Virginia, USA

A three-dimensional model of the aquifer system of the Eastern Shore of Virginia, USA was calibrated to reproduce historical water levels and forecast the potential for saltwater intrusion. Future scenarios were simulated with two pumping schemes to predict potential areas of saltwater intrusion. Simulations suggest that only a few wells would be threatened with detectable salinity increases before 2050. The objective was to examine whether salinity increases can be accurately forecast for individual wells with such a model, and to address what the challenges are in making such model forecasts given current (2009) simulation capabilities. The analysis suggests that even with current computer capabilities, accurate simulations of concentrations within a regional-scale (many km) transition zone are computationally prohibitive. The relative paucity of data that is typical for such regions relative to what is needed for accurate transport simulations suggests that even with an infinitely powerful computer, accurate forecasting for a single well would still be elusive. Useful approaches may include local-grid refinement near wells and geophysical surveys, but it is important to keep expectations for simulated forecasts at wells in line with chloride concentration and other data that can be obtained at that local scale.

Virginia↗

USGS2009

Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Coastal Plain Aquifer System of Virginia

The groundwater model documented in this report simulates the transient evolution of water levels in the aquifers and confining units of the Virginia Coastal Plain and adjacent portions of Maryland and North Carolina since 1890. Groundwater withdrawals have lowered water levels in Virginia Coastal Plain aquifers and have resulted in drawdown in the Potomac aquifer exceeding 200 feet in some areas. The discovery of the Chesapeake Bay impact crater and a revised conceptualization of the Potomac aquifer are two major changes to the hydrogeologic framework that have been incorporated into the groundwater model. The spatial scale of the model was selected on the basis of the primary function of the model of assessing the regional water-level responses of the confined aquifers beneath the Coastal Plain. The local horizontal groundwater flow through the surficial aquifer is not intended to be accurately simulated. Representation of recharge, evapotranspiration, and interaction with surface-water features, such as major rivers, lakes, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic Ocean, enable simulation of shallow flow-system details that influence locations of recharge to and discharge from the deeper confined flow system. The increased density of groundwater associated with the transition from fresh to salty groundwater near the Atlantic Ocean affects regional groundwater flow and was simulated with the Variable Density Flow Process of SEAWAT (a U.S. Geological Survey program for simulation of three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and transport). The groundwater density distribution was generated by a separate 108,000-year simulation of Pleistocene freshwater flushing around the Chesapeake Bay impact crater during transient sea-level changes. Specified-flux boundaries simulate increasing groundwater underflow out of the model domain into Maryland and minor underflow from the Piedmont Province into the model domain. Reported withdrawals accounted for approximately 75 percent of the total groundwater withdrawn from Coastal Plain aquifers during the year 2000. Unreported self-supplied withdrawals were simulated in the groundwater model by specifying their probable locations, magnitudes, and aquifer assignments on the basis of a separate study of domestic-well characteristics in Virginia. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to 7,183 historic water-level observations from 497 observation wells with the parameter-estimation codes UCODE-2005 and PEST. Most water-level observations were from the Potomac aquifer system, which permitted a more complex spatial distribution of simulated hydraulic conductivity within the Potomac aquifer than was possible for other aquifers. Zone, function, and pilot-point approaches were used to distribute assigned hydraulic properties within the aquifer system. The good fit (root mean square error = 3.6 feet) of simulated to observed water levels and reasonableness of the estimated parameter values indicate the model is a good representation of the physical groundwater flow system. The magnitudes and temporal and spatial distributions of residuals indicate no appreciable model bias. The model is intended to be useful for predicting changes in regional groundwater levels in the confined aquifer system in response to future pumping. Because the transient release of water stored in low-permeability confining units is simulated, drawdowns resulting from simulated pumping stresses may change substantially through time before reaching steady state. Consequently, transient simulations of water levels at different future times will be more accurate than a steady-state simulation for evaluating probable future aquifer-system responses to proposed pumping.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Simulation of Groundwater-Level and Salinity Changes in the Eastern Shore, Virginia

Groundwater-level and salinity changes have been simulated with a groundwater model developed and calibrated for the Eastern Shore of Virginia. The Eastern Shore is the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula that is occupied by Accomack and Northampton Counties in Virginia. Groundwater is the sole source of freshwater to the Eastern Shore, and demands for water have been increasing from domestic, industrial, agricultural, and public-supply sectors of the economy. Thus, it is important that the groundwater supply be protected from overextraction and seawater intrusion. The best way for water managers to use all of the information available is usually to compile this information into a numerical model that can simulate the response of the system to current and future stresses. A detailed description of the geology, hydrogeology, and historical groundwater extractions was compiled and entered into the numerical model. The hydrogeologic framework is composed of a surficial aquifer under unconfined conditions, a set of three aquifers and associated overlying confining units under confined conditions (the upper, middle, and lower Yorktown-Eastover Formation), and an underlying confining unit (the St. Marys Formation). An estimate of the location and depths of two major paleochannels was also included in the framework of the model. Total withdrawals from industrial, commercial, public-supply, and some agricultural wells were compiled from the period 1900 through 2003. Reported pumpage from these sources increased dramatically during the 1960s and 70s, up to currently about 4 million gallons per day. Domestic withdrawals were estimated on the basis of population census districts and were assigned spatially to the model on the assumption that domestic users are located close to roads. A numerical model was created using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) code SEAWAT to simulate both water levels and concentrations of chloride (representing salinity). The model was calibrated using 605 predevelopment and transient water-level observations that are associated predominantly with 20 observation nests of wells sited across the study area. Sampling for groundwater chemistry at these sites revealed that chloride has not increased significantly in the last 20 years. Environmental tracers in the samples also indicated that the water in the surficial aquifer is typically years to decades old, whereas water in the confined aquifers is typically centuries to millennia old. The calibration procedure yielded distributions of hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients of the aquifers and confining units that are based on 21 pilot points, but vary smoothly across the study area. The estimated values are consistent with other measurements of these properties measured previously on cores and during hydraulic tests at various well fields. Simulations performed with the model demonstrated that the calibrated model can reproduce the observed historical water levels fairly well (R2 = 0.93). The chloride concentrations were also simulated, but a match with chloride concentrations was more difficult to achieve (R2 = 0.16) because of the lack of sufficient data and the unknown exact behavior of the entire transition zone in the millennia leading up to the present day. Future pumping scenarios were simulated through 2050, with pumping set to either 2003 rates or total permitted withdrawal rates. Water levels in 2050 are predicted to be lower than current levels by a few feet where stresses are currently heaviest but potentially by tens of feet if total permitted withdrawals are extracted at current low-stressed sites. Simulations of chloride concentrations through 2050 revealed some potential for seawater intrusion in the areas of Cape Charles, Chincoteague, east of the town of Exmore, and east of the town of Accomac, but precise estimates of concentration increases are highly uncertain. Simulation results were also used to estimate that the down

Scientific Investigations Report↗