Geology topics

Jason J. Gurdak

Publications and source records attributed to Jason J. Gurdak.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2018

Irrigated agriculture and future climate change effects on groundwater recharge, northern High Plains aquifer, USA

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential ( ψ T ) time series) and chemical tracer and dating ( 3 H, Cl − , Br − , CFCs, SF 6 , and 3 H/ 3 He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D models, and irrigation requirements were estimated using the Crops Simulation Model (CROPSIM). Future model simulations were driven by an ensemble of 16 global climate models and two global warming scenarios to project a 2050 climate relative to the historical baseline 1990 climate, and simulate changes in precipitation, irrigation, evapotranspiration, and diffuse and irrigation recharge rates. Although results indicate statistical differences between the historical variables at the eastern and western sites and rangeland and irrigated sites, the low warming scenario (+1.0 °C) simulations indicate no statistical differences between 2050 and 1990. However, the high warming scenarios (+2.4 °C) indicate a 25% and 15% increase in median annual evapotranspiration and irrigation demand, and decreases in future diffuse recharge by 53% and 98% and irrigation recharge by 47% and 29% at the eastern and western sites, respectively. These results indicate an important threshold between the low and high warming scenarios that if exceeded could trigger a significant bidirectional shift in 2050 hydroclimatology and recharge gradients. The bidirectional shift is that future northern High Plains temperatures will resemble present central High Plains temperatures and future recharge rates in the east will resemble present recharge rates in the western part of the northern High Plains aquifer. The reductions in recharge rates could accelerate declining water levels if irrigation demand and other management strategies are not implemented. Findings here have important implications for future management of irrigation practices and to slow groundwater depletion in this important agricultural region.

Northern High Plains Aquifer↗

USGS2018

Climate variability and vadose zone controls on damping of transient recharge

Increasing demand on groundwater resources motivates understanding of the controls on recharge dynamics so model predictions under current and future climate may improve. Here we address questions about the nonlinear behavior of flux variability in the vadose zone that may explain previously reported teleconnections between global-scale climate variability and fluctuations in groundwater levels. We use hundreds of HYDRUS-1D simulations in a sensitivity analysis approach to evaluate the damping depth of transient recharge over a range of periodic boundary conditions and vadose zone geometries and hydraulic parameters that are representative of aquifer systems of the conterminous United States (U.S). Although the models were parameterized based on U.S. aquifers, findings from this study are applicable elsewhere that have mean recharge rates between 3.65 and 730 mm yr –1 . We find that mean infiltration flux, period of time varying infiltration, and hydraulic conductivity are statistically significant predictors of damping depth. The resulting framework explains why some periodic infiltration fluxes associated with climate variability dampen with depth in the vadose zone, resulting in steady-state recharge, while other periodic surface fluxes do not dampen with depth, resulting in transient recharge. We find that transient recharge in response to the climate variability patterns could be detected at the depths of water levels in most U.S. aquifers. Our findings indicate that the damping behavior of transient infiltration fluxes is linear across soil layers for a range of texture combinations. The implications are that relatively simple, homogeneous models of the vadose zone may provide reasonable estimates of the damping depth of climate-varying transient recharge in some complex, layered vadose zone profiles.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2017

Land-use change and managed aquifer recharge effects on the hydrogeochemistry of two contrasting atoll island aquifers, Roi-Namur Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands

Freshwater resources on low-lying atoll islands are highly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise. In addition to rainwater catchment, groundwater in the freshwater lens is a critically important water resource on many atoll islands, especially during drought. Although many atolls have high annual rainfall rates, dense natural vegetation and high evapotranspiration rates can limit recharge to the freshwater lens. Here we evaluate the effects of land-use/land-cover change and managed aquifer recharge on the hydrogeochemistry and supply of groundwater on Roi-Namur Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Roi-Namur is an artificially conjoined island that has similar hydrogeology on the Roi and Namur lobes, but has contrasting land-use/land-cover and managed aquifer recharge only on Roi. Vegetation removal and managed aquifer recharge operations have resulted in an estimated 8.6 x 105 m3 of potable groundwater in the freshwater lens on Roi, compared to only 1.6 x 104 m3 on Namur. We use groundwater samples from a suite of 33 vertically nested monitoring wells, statistical testing, and geochemical modeling using PHREEQC to show that the differences in land-use/land-cover and managed aquifer recharge on Roi and Namur have a statistically significant effect on several groundwater-quality parameters and the controlling geochemical processes. Results also indicate a seven-fold reduction in the dissolution of carbonate rock in the freshwater lens and overlying vadose zone of Roi compared to Namur. Mixing of seawater and the freshwater lens is a more dominant hydrogeochemical process on Roi because of the greater recharge and flushing of the aquifer with freshwater as compared to Namur. In contrast, equilibrium processes and dissolution-precipitation non-equilibrium reactions are more dominant on Namur because of the longer residence times relative to the rate of geochemical reactions. Findings from Roi-Namur Island support selective land-use/land-cover change and managed aquifer recharge as a promising management approach for communities on other low-lying atoll islands to increase the resilience of their groundwater supplies and help them adapt to future climate change related stresses.

Roi-Namur↗

USGS2017

Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

Study region The U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems. Study focus Groundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone. New hydrological insights for the region We find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2014

Water movement through the unsaturated zone of the High Plains Aquifer in the Central Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska, 2008-12

Uncertainty about the effects of land use and climate on water movement in the unsaturated zone and on groundwater recharge rates can lead to uncertainty in water budgets used for groundwater-flow models. To better understand these effects, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Central Platte Natural Resources District was initiated in 2007 to determine field-based estimates of recharge rates in selected land-use areas of the Central Platte Natural Resources District in Nebraska. Measured total water potential and unsaturated-zone profiles of tritium, chloride, nitrate as nitrogen, and bromide, along with groundwater-age dates, were used to evaluate water movement in the unsaturated zone and groundwater recharge rates in the central Platte River study area. Eight study sites represented an east-west precipitation contrast across the study area—four beneath groundwater-irrigated cropland (sites 2, 5, and 6 were irrigated corn and site 7 was irrigated alfalfa/corn rotation), three beneath rangeland (sites 1, 4, and 8), and one beneath nonirrigated cropland, or dryland (site 3). Measurements of transient vertical gradients in total water potential indicated that periodic wetting fronts reached greater mean maximum depths beneath the irrigated sites than beneath the rangeland sites, in part, because of the presence of greater and constant antecedent moisture. Beneath the rangeland sites, greater temporal variation in antecedent moisture and total water potential existed and was, in part, likely a result of local precipitation and evapotranspiration. Moreover, greater variability was noticed in the total water potential profiles beneath the western sites than the corresponding eastern sites, which was attributed to less mean annual precipitation in the west. The depth of the peak post-bomb tritium concentration or the interface between the pre-bomb/post-bomb tritium, along with a tritium mass balance, within sampled soil profiles were used to estimate water fluxes in the unsaturated zone at three of the eight study sites: site 2 (irrigated), site 3 (dryland), and site 8 (rangeland). Estimates for recharge were about 68 millimeters per year [(mm/yr), post-bomb peak], 133 to 159 mm/yr (tritium interface), and 137 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 2 (irrigated); about 63 mm/yr (tritium interface) and 12 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 3 (dryland); and about 53 mm/yr (tritium interface) and 10 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 8 (rangeland). Recharge values from the mass balance at site 2 were more than an order of magnitude greater than recharge values at site 3, suggesting irrigation is an important control on water movement through the unsaturated zone. For the remaining five sites, the post-bomb tritium had flushed through the system and recharge was considered modern (within 10 years of sampling). The chloride mass-balance method was used to determine water fluxes below the root zone (less than 2 meters below land surface) at the rangeland sites: sites 1, 4, and 8. At these rangeland sites, water fluxes ranged from 1.8 to 96 mm/yr at site 1, 1.1 to 9.6 mm/yr at site 4, and 1.1 to 68 mm/yr at site 8, with mean rates of 21, 4.3, and 13 mm/yr, respectively. Site 1 had a greater mean water flux, which was consistent with the greater precipitation in the east than at site 8 in the west. Chloride mass balance was not calculated at the irrigated and dryland sites because of uncertainty about additional sources of chloride. Concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in pore water in the unsaturated zone were larger beneath the irrigated and dryland (agricultural) sites compared with the rangeland sites. The larger concentrations at the agricultural sites are consistent with the application of nitrogen fertilizer at the agricultural sites and no substantial accumulation at the rangeland sites. The shape of the nitrate as nitrogen and chloride concentration profiles at site 1 (rangeland) indicate a reasonably larger and more consistent water flux in the UZ than beneath the other two rangeland sites (sites 4 or 8). Excluding site 7, the general shape of the nitrate as nitrogen profiles was similar beneath the agricultural sites and supports the estimates of water movement and recharge rates determined from the tritium and chloride methods. Movement of bromide through the unsaturated zone indicated greater water fluxes are found beneath irrigated lands than beneath rangeland. Bromide profiles in the unsaturated zone, determined from center of mass and peak displacement methods, document water fluxes ranged from 58 to 394 mm/yr beneath irrigated sites and 9 to 201 mm/yr beneath rangeland sites. Water-flux estimates from the potassium bromide tests at most sites did not represent overall recharge rates because the bromide remained primarily in the root zone. Apparent groundwater age was used to determine the groundwater residence time at the eight sites and to estimate recharge rates. Groundwater ages in the study area ranged from old water (defined here as groundwater that was recharged more than 50 years ago) to modern (defined here as groundwater that has recharged within the past 10 years). Groundwater ages indicated that the shallow monitoring wells generally had younger residence times, whereas the deeper monitoring wells generally had the older residence times. Groundwater dates from the shallowest monitoring wells were used to determine recharge rates at the water table. These rates generally were similar to recharge rates determined from tritium and chloride mass-balance methods. Groundwater recharge rates generally increased with well depth, and the deeper monitoring wells likely do not represent local recharge conditions but recharge from a regional flow system that receives recharge from distant sources. Overall, these data generally indicate that water movement within the unsaturated zone primarily is affected by spatial contrasts in mean annual precipitation and by the land use or land cover. The eight unsaturated-zone sites each generated unique, valuable datasets that likely will improve the understanding of water movement and recharge rates in the central Platte River valley.

Nebraska↗

USGS2012

Ground water and climate change

As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2012

Vulnerability of recently recharged groundwater in principal aquifers of the United States to nitrate contamination

Recently recharged water (defined here as <60 years old) is generally the most vulnerable part of a groundwater resource to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. Understanding at the appropriate scale the interactions of natural and anthropogenic controlling factors that influence nitrate occurrence in recently recharged groundwater is critical to support best management and policy decisions that are often made at the aquifer to subaquifer scale. New logistic regression models were developed using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and National Water Information System for 17 principal aquifers of the U.S. to identify important source, transport, and attenuation factors that control nonpoint source nitrate concentrations greater than relative background levels in recently recharged groundwater and were used to predict the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in areas beyond the sampling network. Results indicate that dissolved oxygen, crops and irrigated cropland, fertilizer application, seasonally high water table, and soil properties that affect infiltration and denitrification are among the most important factors in predicting elevated nitrate concentrations. Important differences in controlling factors and spatial predictions were identified in the principal aquifer and national-scale models and support the conclusion that similar spatial scales are needed between informed groundwater management and model development.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Groundwater availability of the Mississippi embayment

Groundwater is an important resource for agricultural and municipal uses in the Mississippi embayment. Arkansas ranks first in the Nation for rice and third for cotton production, with both crops dependent on groundwater as a major source of irrigation requirements. Multiple municipalities rely on the groundwater resources to provide water for industrial and public use, which includes the city of Memphis, Tennessee. The demand for the groundwater resource has resulted in groundwater availability issues in the Mississippi embayment including: (1) declining groundwater levels of 50 feet or more in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in parts of eastern Arkansas from agricultural pumping, (2) declining groundwater levels of over 360 feet over the last 90 years in the confined middle Claiborne aquifer in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana from municipal pumping, and (3) litigation between the State of Mississippi and a Memphis water utility over water rights in the middle Claiborne aquifer. To provide information to stakeholders addressing the groundwater-availability issues, the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program supported a detailed assessment of groundwater availability through the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS). This assessment included (1) an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time through the use of groundwater budgets, (2) development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends, and (3) application of statistical tools to evaluate the importance of individual observations within a groundwater-monitoring network. An estimated 12 million acre-feet per year (11 billion gallons per day) of groundwater was pumped in 2005 from aquifers in the Mississippi embayment. Irrigation constitutes the largest groundwater use, accounting for approximately 10 million acre-feet per year (9 billion gallons per day) in 2000 from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri, and to a lesser extent in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Predevelopment groundwater flow is represented in the MERAS model as a steady-state stress period, assumed to be prior to 1870. The simulated groundwater-flow budget indicates the largest predevelopment inflow to the system is net recharge to the alluvial aquifer. This inflow is balanced by outflow to gaining streams. Overall, water enters as net recharge to the alluvial aquifer or through outcrop areas of the various hydrogeologic units. Away from the outcrop areas, groundwater flow in the deeper formations is primarily upward into overlying units, ultimately discharging to streams through the alluvial aquifer. Total net recharge and discharge (sum of inflows or outflows) for the model ranged from about 0.66 million acre-feet per year during predevelopment to 20.16 million acre-feet per year by the end of the simulation (final simulated irrigation period in summer of 2006). This change in the model budget reflects increases in withdrawals compared to predevelopment conditions. Cumulative storage within aquifers simulated in the MERAS model indicates overall depletion of 140 million acre-feet (equivalent to 2.8 feet of water covering the entire study area). Postdevelopment inflow to the system is still through net recharge to the alluvial aquifer and the outcrop areas of the several hydrogeologic units, however, the flow between each unit is no longer upward to the alluvial aquifer. Groundwater flow during the summer of 2006 was primarily downward to offset demand from pumping. Early in the model simulation (1870-1920s), the primary components of the water budget were simulated as outflow from stream leakage and inflow from net recharge. As pumpage increased through time, water that would otherwise flow to streams reversed, and net stream leakage became an inflow to the system. The largest reversals began in the mid-1980s, but indications of the reversal began in the early 1960s with a trend in loss of streamflow leakage coupled with the first consistent inflow from storage. While groundwater pumped out of the alluvial aquifer was derived primarily from storage, pumpage out of the middle Claiborne aquifer was derived primarily from other aquifers (up to 15 percent from the alluvial aquifer), followed by flow from storage and net recharge. The potential consequences of climate change have been identified as a major concern facing the sustainability of the Nation's groundwater resources. To address this concern, two climate simulations were developed through the use of the MERAS model by extending the simulation period by 30 years to the year 2038 using extrapolated precipitation based on frequency analysis of historic climate cycles. There is little difference between the dry and wet scenarios in terms of percent water-level change. Both scenarios resulted in 14.6 to 13.9 percent of the area containing more than 100 feet of decline, 14.5 to 13.8 percent containing between 75 and 100 feet of decline, and 15.8 to 15.7 percent containing 51 to 75 feet of decline in the alluvial aquifer. The middle Claiborne aquifer water-level changes also were similar between the two scenarios. These scenarios indicate that even with a 25-percent increase in precipitation from that of the dry scenario, there is little difference in the resultant water levels. This is in large part because of the magnitude of differences between changes in net recharge and changes in pumping. When compared to the volume of water pumped out of the system, the effect of this change in net recharge is negligible. The groundwater-level monitoring network used to construct the 2007 middle Claiborne aquifer potentiometric surface was used as an example case to demonstrate statistical technique and to evaluate the importance of individual groundwater-level observations. To calculate the importance of each water-level observation to a prediction, predictions were specified as water-level altitudes near the end of the dry scenario simulation. These predictions were located near the center of cones of depression. Many of the observations that have a high importance are in close proximity to stressed areas of the aquifer.

Mississippi↗

USGS2009

Recharge rates and chemistry beneath playas of the High Plains aquifer: A literature review and synthesis

Playas are ephemeral, closed-basin wetlands that are important zones of recharge to the High Plains (or Ogallala) aquifer and critical habitat for birds and other wildlife in the otherwise semiarid, shortgrass prairie and agricultural landscape. The ephemeral nature of playas, low regional recharge rates, and a strong reliance on ground water from the High Plains aquifer has prompted many questions regarding the contribution of recharge from playas to the regional aquifer. To address these questions and concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Playa Lakes Joint Venture, present a review and synthesis of the more than 175 publications about recharge rates and chemistry beneath playas and interplaya settings. Although a number of questions remain regarding the controls on recharge rates and chemistry beneath playas, the results from most published studies indicate that recharge rates beneath playas are substantially (1 to 2 orders of magnitude) higher than recharge rates beneath interplaya settings. The synthesis presented here supports the conceptual model that playas are important zones of recharge to the High Plains aquifer and are not strictly evaporative pans. The major findings of this synthesis yield science-based implications for the protection and management of playas and ground-water resources of the High Plains aquifer and directions for future research.

High Plains aquifer↗

USGS2009

Water Quality in the High Plains Aquifer, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming, 1999-2004

This report contains the major findings of a 1999-2004 assessment of water quality in the High Plains aquifer. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings for principal and other aquifers and major river basins across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is discussed in terms of local, regional, State, and national issues. Conditions in the aquifer system are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies, universities, public interest groups, or the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as drinking-water quality, the effects of agricultural practices on water quality, source-water protection, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of ground water in areas near where they live and how that water quality compares to the quality of water in other areas across the region and the Nation. The water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer summarized in this report are discussed in greater detail in other reports that can be accessed in Appendix 1 of http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/. Detailed technical information, data and analyses, collection and analytical methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report in addition to reports in this series from other basins can be accessed from the national NAWQA Web site (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa). This report accompanies the detailed and technical report of water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer 'Water-quality assessment of the High Plains aquifer, 1999-2004' (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/)

Circular↗

USGS2009

Estimating Prediction Uncertainty from Geographical Information System Raster Processing: A User's Manual for the Raster Error Propagation Tool (REPTool)

The U.S. Geological Survey Raster Error Propagation Tool (REPTool) is a custom tool for use with the Environmental System Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS Desktop application to estimate error propagation and prediction uncertainty in raster processing operations and geospatial modeling. REPTool is designed to introduce concepts of error and uncertainty in geospatial data and modeling and provide users of ArcGIS Desktop a geoprocessing tool and methodology to consider how error affects geospatial model output. Similar to other geoprocessing tools available in ArcGIS Desktop, REPTool can be run from a dialog window, from the ArcMap command line, or from a Python script. REPTool consists of public-domain, Python-based packages that implement Latin Hypercube Sampling within a probabilistic framework to track error propagation in geospatial models and quantitatively estimate the uncertainty of the model output. Users may specify error for each input raster or model coefficient represented in the geospatial model. The error for the input rasters may be specified as either spatially invariant or spatially variable across the spatial domain. Users may specify model output as a distribution of uncertainty for each raster cell. REPTool uses the Relative Variance Contribution method to quantify the relative error contribution from the two primary components in the geospatial model - errors in the model input data and coefficients of the model variables. REPTool is appropriate for many types of geospatial processing operations, modeling applications, and related research questions, including applications that consider spatially invariant or spatially variable error in geospatial data.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2008

Susceptibility to enhanced chemical migration from depression-focused preferential flow, High Plains aquifer

Aquifer susceptibility to contamination is controlled in part by the inherent hydrogeologic properties of the vadose zone, which includes preferential-flow pathways. The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of seasonal ponding near leaky irrigation wells as a mechanism for depression-focused preferential flow and enhanced chemical migration through the vadose zone of the High Plains aquifer. Such a mechanism may help explain the widespread presence of agrichemicals in recently recharged groundwater despite estimates of advective chemical transit times through the vadose zone from diffuse recharge that exceed the historical period of agriculture. Using a combination of field observations, vadose zone flow and transport simulations, and probabilistic neural network modeling, we demonstrated that vadose zone transit times near irrigation wells range from 7 to 50 yr, which are one to two orders of magnitude faster than previous estimates based on diffuse recharge. These findings support the concept of fast and slow transport zones and help to explain the previous discordant findings of long vadose zone transit times and the presence of agrichemicals at the water table. Using predictions of aquifer susceptibility from probabilistic neural network models, we delineated approximately 20% of the areal extent of the aquifer to have conditions that may promote advective chemical transit times to the water table of <50 yr if seasonal ponding and depression-focused flow exist. This aquifer-susceptibility map may help managers prioritize areas for groundwater monitoring or implementation of best management practices.

High Plains↗

USGS2007

Water-Quality Assessment of the High Plains Aquifer, 1999-2004

Water quality of the High Plains aquifer was assessed for the period 1999-2004 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. This effort represents the first systematic regional assessment of water quality in this nationally important aquifer. A stratified, nested group of studies was designed to assess linkages between the quality of water recharging the aquifer, the effect of transport through the hydrologic system on water quality, and the quality of the resource used for human consumption and agricultural applications. The stratified, nested design facilitated upscaling of monitoring results to unmonitored areas of the aquifer as well as upscaling of process understanding from local to regional scales.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2006

Percentage of Probability of Nonpoint-Source Nitrate Contamination of Recently Recharged Ground Water in the High Plains Aquifer

This raster data set represents the percentage of probability of nonpoint-source nitrate contamination (greater than the proposed background concentration of 4 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as N) of recently (defined as less than 50 years) recharged ground water in the High Plains aquifer of the United States. The High Plains aquifer covers approximately 175,000 square miles in eight States; Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Elevated nitrate concentrations above the background concentration have been detected in recently recharged (less than 50 years) ground water in the High Plains aquifer. This data set is derived from empirical models developed using multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the vulnerability of the High Plains aquifer to nitrate contamination from nonpoint sources. This data set was generated in a geographic information system from these models and represents the spatial extent of vulnerability of nitrate contamination greater than 4 mg/L across the aquifer.

Data Series↗

USGS2006

Vulnerability of recently recharged ground water in the High Plains aquifer to nitrate contamination

Nitrate concentrations greater than background levels have been detected in ground water of the High Plains aquifer. Empirically based models and corresponding maps were developed that predict the vulnerability of the aquifer to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. The models predict the probability of detecting nitrate concentrations larger than 4 milligrams per liter in ground water of the High Plains aquifer that was recharged during the last 50 years. The models were calibrated by correlating concentrations of nitrate in ground water from 336 wells that intercept recently recharged (less than 50 years) water with anthropogenic and hydrogeologic explanatory variables. Particle-tracking simulations delineated well-contributing areas and determined well-screen depths that intercept recently recharged ground water. The models were developed using multivariate logistic regression, and a map was generated from these models using a geographic information system. Two multivariate logistic regression models of vulnerability were found to have the most statistical significance and the best model fit and predictive ability. The two models represent the Northern High Plains and the combined Central and Southern High Plains, and they indicate that ground-water vulnerability of the entire High Plains aquifer is best explained by the spatial distribution of nonirrigated and irrigated agricultural lands, organic matter of the soil, depth to the regional water table, and clay content of the unsaturated zone. Vulnerability of the Northern High Plains is greater in areas that have more nonirrigated and irrigated agricultural lands and less organic matter in the soil. The vulnerability of the Central and Southern High Plains also is greater in areas that have more nonirrigated and irrigated agricultural lands and also in areas with shallow depths to water table and less clay in the unsaturated zone. The majority (53.3 percent) of the High Plains aquifer has less than a 40-percent predicted probability of nitrate concentrations larger than 4 milligrams per liter. Approximately 21.1 percent of the High Plains aquifer has a relatively high (greater than 60 percent) predicted probability of nitrate concentrations greater than or equal to 4 milligrams per liter. Areas with relatively high predicted probability are located in the southwestern, southern, and eastern areas of the Northern High Plains, in the eastern arm of the Central High Plains, and in southern areas of the Southern High Plains. Areas of the aquifer with relatively low (less than 40 percent) predicted vulnerability to nitrate concentrations greater than or equal to 4 milligrams per liter are located in the northwestern and north-central areas of the Northern High Plains, the central and southern areas of the Central High Plains, and a band across the north-central part of the Southern High Plains. Uncertainty of these vulnerability predictions was estimated by Latin hypercube sampling to address propagation of model and data errors inherently associated with estimates of model coefficients and explanatory variables. Results of the Latin hypercube sampling simulations are presented as uncertainty maps of the lower 5th and upper 95th percentile of the output probability distribution, which represents the 90-percent prediction interval that contains the true probability of detecting nitrate greater than or equal to 4 milligrams per liter. Generally, these uncertainty maps show greater prediction uncertainty in areas with relatively higher predicted vulnerability and lower uncertainty in areas with relatively lower predicted vulnerability.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Ground-water quality beneath irrigated agriculture in the central High Plains aquifer, 1999-2000

In 1999 and 2000, 30 water-quality monitoring wells were installed in the central High Plains aquifer to evaluate the quality of recently recharged ground water in areas of irrigated agriculture and to identify the factors affecting ground-water quality. Wells were installed adjacent to irrigated agricultural fields with 10- or 20-foot screened intervals placed near the water table. Each well was sampled once for about 100 waterquality constituents associated with agricultural practices. Water samples from 70 percent of the wells (21 of 30 sites) contained nitrate concentrations larger than expected background concentrations (about 3 mg/L as N) and detectable pesticides. Atrazine or its metabolite, deethylatrazine, were detected with greater frequency than other pesticides and were present in all 21 samples where pesticides were detected. The 21 samples with detectable pesticides also contained tritium concentrations large enough to indicate that at least some part of the water sample had been recharged within about the last 50 years. These 21 ground-water samples are considered to show water-quality effects related to irrigated agriculture. The remaining 9 groundwater samples contained no pesticides, small tritium concentrations, and nitrate concentrations less than 3.45 milligrams per liter as nitrogen. These samples are considered unaffected by the irrigated agricultural land-use setting. Nitrogen isotope ratios indicate that commercial fertilizer was the dominant source of nitrate in 13 of the 21 samples affected by irrigated agriculture. Nitrogen isotope ratios for 4 of these 21 samples were indicative of an animal waste source. Dissolved-solids concentrations were larger in samples affected by irrigated agriculture, with large sulfate concentrations having strong correlation with large dissolved solids concentrations in these samples. A strong statistical correlation is shown between samples affected by irrigated agriculture and sites with large rates of pesticide and nitrogen applications and shallow depths to ground water.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2002

Traveltime characteristics of Gore Creek and Black Gore Creek, upper Colorado River basin, Colorado

In the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, major highways are often constructed in stream valleys. In the event of a vehicular accident involving hazardous materials, the close proximity of highways to the streams increases the risk of contamination entering the streams. Recent population growth has contributed to increased traffic volume along Colorado highways and has resulted in increased movement of hazardous materials, particularly along Interstate 70. Gore Creek and its major tributary, Black Gore Creek, are vulnerable to such contamination from vehicular accidents along Interstate 70. Gore Creek, major tributary of the Eagle River, drains approximately 102 square miles, some of which has recently undergone significant urban development. The headwaters of Gore Creek originate in the Gore Range in the eastern part of the Gore Creek watershed. Gore Creek flows west to the Eagle River. Beginning at the watershed boundary on Vail Pass, southeast of Vail Ski Resort, Interstate 70 parallels Black Gore Creek and then closely follows Gore Creek the entire length of the watershed. Interstate 70 crosses Gore Creek and tributaries 20 times in the watershed. In the event of a vehicular accident involving a contaminant spill into Gore Creek or Black Gore Creek, a stepwise procedure has been developed for water-resource managers to estimate traveltimes of the leading edge and peak concentration of a conservative contaminant. An example calculating estimated traveltimes for a hypothetical contaminant release in Black Gore Creek is provided. Traveltime measurements were made during May and September along Black Gore Creek and Gore Creek from just downstream from the Black Lakes to the confluence with the Eagle River to account for seasonal variability in stream discharge. Fluorometric dye injection of rhodamine WT and downstream dye detection by fluorometry were used to measure traveltime characteristics of Gore Creek and Black Gore Creek. During the May traveltime measurements, discharges ranged from 82 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) at Black Gore Creek near Minturn (U.S. Geological Survey station number 09066000) to 724 ft3/s at Gore Creek at mouth near Minturn (U.S. Geological Survey station number 09066510), whereas during the September traveltime measurements, discharges ranged from 3.6 ft3/s at Black Gore Creek near Minturn to 62 ft3/s at Gore Creek at mouth near Minturn. Cumulative traveltimes for the peak dye concentration during the May traveltime measurements ranged from 3.45 hours (site 1 to site 3) in Black Gore Creek to 2.50 hours (site 8 to site 12) in Gore Creek, whereas cumulative traveltimes for the peak dye concentration during the September traveltime measurements ranged from 15.33 hours (site 1 to site 3) in Black Gore Creek to 8.65 hours (site 8 to site 12) in Gore Creek. During the September dye injections, beaver dams on Black Gore Creek, between site 1 and the confluence with Gore Creek, substantially delayed movement of the rhodamine WT. Estimated traveltimes were developed using relations established from linear-regression methods of relating measured peak traveltime to discharge during those measurements, which were obtained at Black Gore Creek near Minturn and Gore Creek at mouth near Minturn. Resulting estimated peak traveltimes for Black Gore Creek (sites 1 to 5) ranged from 5.4 to 0.4 hour for 20 to 200 ft3/s and for Gore Creek (sites 5 to 12), 5.5 to 0.3 hour for 20 to 800 ft3/s. Longitudinal-dispersion coefficients that were calculated for selected stream reaches ranged from 17.2 square feet per second at 4 ft3/s between sites 2 and 3 to 650 square feet per second at 144 ft3/s between sites 7 and 8. Longitudinal-dispersion coefficients are necessary variables for future stream-contaminant modeling in the Gore Creek watershed.

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