Jason D. K. Dzurisin | Search USGS

USGS2019

Evidence of an extreme weather‐induced phenological mismatch and a local extirpation of the endangered Karner blue butterfly

In 2011, an experiment was undertaken to examine spring synchrony between the endangered Karner blue butterfly ( Lycaeides melissa samuelis ) (Kbb) and its obligate host plant, wild blue lupine ( Lupinus perennis ) at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (INDU), where the southernmost population of Kbb occurred at the time of this study. From 2012 to 2014, field‐placed Kbb eggs were observed for larvae hatching in conjunction with observations of lupine emergence in oak savanna habitat. In 2012, 61% of Kbb hatched when <5% of lupine had emerged due to an extreme early spring event as compared to subsequent years where temporal overlap was >15% between Kbb and lupine. Laboratory experiments testing the sensitivity of Kbb hatching to warm temperatures during the winter of 2011–2012 confirmed that Kbb eggs were susceptible to temperature‐induced hatching. In the summer of 2012, second generation Kbb larvae feeding on sun‐exposed lupine had higher mortality due to the heat and drought conditions that resulted in earlier plant senescence. Following 2012, Kbb were no longer observed at INDU. This observation illustrates the pressing need for adaptive management strategies that account for extreme weather events brought on by climate change.

Indiana↗

USGS2016

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Ecological Applications↗