Geology topics

James M. Beerens

Publications and source records attributed to James M. Beerens.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2020

Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting

Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way – using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational forecast model designed specifically for conservation management purposes including water management. It provides up to six-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Everglades. We validated EverForecast quarterly to measured historical values at 207 gages (1 Jan 2000 – 31 Dec 2019). EverForecast hindcasted water stage accurately captured measured stage variation, with a low percentage of measured stage exceeding hindcasted values. Over the whole spatial extent, the mean RMSE is 20.98 cm, the mean MAE is 14.42 cm, and the mean MBE is 0.91 cm.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Impacts of saltwater intrusion on wetland prey production and composition in a historically freshwater marsh

Sea level rise is a fundamental driver of ecosystem change and has the potential to shift the spatial distributions of habitats more rapidly than species can adapt. Rapid sea level rise and associated saltwater intrusion have negative impacts on coastal environments, including loss of habitat for species such as sea turtles and shorebirds. In Florida’s largest wetland, the Everglades, the availability of small fishes that are prey for wading birds serve as an indicator of ecosystem health. In the southwestern part of the ecosystem, sea level rise and a reduction in freshwater flow have converted formerly freshwater marsh into an estuarine mangrove-dominated landscape. In this study, we sampled fish communities in this southwest portion of the Everglades exposed to a range of saline conditions. Biomass of native fishes was highest at a salinity value of approximately 25 parts per thousand, while non-native biomass decreased with increasing salinity. Applying salinity change scenarios, we determined that a 10% reduction from the salinity levels recorded in this study would be optimal for biomass of native fishes. The baseline data we collected on non-native fishes at the site will be useful for monitoring as restoration progresses and for managers working on invasive species control. This region has been actively undergoing ecosystem restoration for the last decade, but restored freshwater flow closer to historical conditions is still years away. Without increased freshwater inflow from hydrologic restoration, rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion may provide conservation challenges for wading birds and their prey-base fishes.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Back to the future: Rebuilding the Everglades

Society values landscapes that are engrained in cultural tradition and have a rich connection with human history. As such, there has been a concerted effort to look at the pristine past and develop plans to move the past into the future. However, bringing the past back is constrained by hysteretic changes, irrevocable damages, and anthropogenic trends that do not reflect past conditions. The scale of the Everglades and its importance to water supply and flood control is such that a full recovery, to past, pre-drainage conditions, is not possible. What is possible? The answer is the federally authorized Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and the first, most significant implementation of the $12 Billion CERP is the $2 Billion Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP). CEPP is our “flux-capacitor” in the DeLorean sports car that generates the ability to go back and forth in time, in the movie series “Back to the Future.” The primary hydrological modeling outputs of CEPP came from a version of the Regional Simulation Model (RSM), developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is the DeLorean vehicle, designed to carry the bags of ecological restoration. Unfortunately, the capacity of this vehicle (i.e., CEPP) is limited, but is it large enough? Will CEPP make a difference? The 20-year RSM simulations (1965 – 1985) without restoration showed nine dry periods when there was no water in the sloughs of Everglades National Park (ENP). When the model was run with CEPP conditions, all of these extreme dry conditions were eliminated. The impact of this was most apparent for fish, especially the size classes that wading birds eat. With our DeLorean (i.e. the RSM) we saw a 60-90% increase in fish density. As one might expect, the birds in our alternative future responded to the fish. The increased volume, flow, and connectivity in the CEPP simulations significantly improved the foraging response of all wading bird species, especially in Water Conservation Area 3 (WCA-3) and ENP. Foraging conditions for an average CEPP year improved by 25-100%. Further downstream, the CEPP simulations showed increased delivery of low nutrient fresh water to the Coastal Everglades and Florida Bay that displaced the relatively P-rich marine water, increased water transparency, and thus decreased algal blooms. However, in a future with accelerating sea levels and estuarine lakes with legacy phosphorus (P), how much more fresh water will be needed to maintain submerged aquatic vegetated habitats? The quest for Everglades Restoration will reach a resource management milestone with the implementation of CEPP. CEPP successfully used a broad suite of hydrological, ecological and societal models to build an acceptable and feasible adaptive management vision of the future. It has been a long and difficult journey, but what we have learned in the process will guide future travelers back in time.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Managing conflicts in the River of Grass

Chances are, you would not pack up and move to a new home without first researching the neighborhood, reviewing your finances, and maybe investigating schools nearby. Similarly, you would not buy the first car you find on a magazine cover without first reviewing the technical specifications, exploring your options, and perhaps taking a test drive. Even when making simple purchases online, you probably shop around, check out customer reviews, and scan seller feedback ratings. Rarely do we act on impulse alone when faced with decisions. Rather, we typically start with a vision of what we want before gathering the necessary information, weighing our options, prioritizing our values, and evaluating possible tradeoffs. In making choices that range from lighthearted to life-changing, we use this commonsense strategy every day of our lives. Environmental decision-making is no different. For decades, natural resource managers faced with complicated problems have made decisions by breaking them into smaller components that are easier to approach. And like our day-to day decisions, the process is ideally guided by a shared vision of the future. However, it can become complicated when multiple, seemingly disparate views on what the future should hold emerge. As Lewis Carroll once wrote, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” Divining a vision of the future for the Florida Everglades and making supporting decisions is a complex undertaking. But unlike Alice thrust through the looking glass, we have tools and techniques to help us make sense of it all. The application of tools to help decision-making can move us closer to the successful restoration of this imperiled landscape.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN)—A decade of serving hydrologic information to scientists and resource managers

Introduction The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) provides scientists and resource managers with regional maps of daily water levels and depths in the freshwater part of the Greater Everglades landscape. The EDEN domain includes all or parts of five Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, Pennsuco Wetlands, and Everglades National Park. Daily water-level maps are interpolated from water-level data at monitoring gages, and depth is estimated by using a digital elevation model of the land surface. Online datasets provide time series of daily water levels at gages and rainfall and evapotranspiration data ( https://sofia.usgs.gov/eden/ ). These datasets are used by scientists and resource managers to guide large-scale field operations, describe hydrologic changes, and support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem response to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. EDEN water-level data have been used in a variety of biological and ecological studies including (1) the health of American alligators as a function of water depth, (2) the variability of post-fire landscape dynamics in relation to water depth, (3) the habitat quality for wading birds with dynamic habitat selection, and (4) an evaluation of the habitat of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Predicting wading bird and aquatic faunal responses to ecosystem restoration scenarios

In large-scale conservation decisions, scenario planning identifies key uncertainties of ecosystem function linked to ecological drivers affected by management, incorporates ecological feedbacks, and scales up to answer questions robust to alternative futures. Wetland restoration planning requires an understanding of how proposed changes in surface hydrology, water storage, and landscape connectivity affect aquatic animal composition, productivity, and food-web function. In the Florida Everglades, reintroduction of historical hydrologic patterns is expected to increase productivity of all trophic levels. Highly mobile indicator species such as wading birds integrate secondary productivity from aquatic prey (small fishes and crayfish) over the landscape. To evaluate how fish, crayfish, and wading birds may respond to alternative hydrologic restoration plans, we compared predicted small fish density, crayfish density and biomass, and wading bird occurrence for existing conditions to four restoration scenarios that varied water storage and removal of levees and canals (i.e. decompartmentalization). Densities of small fish and occurrence of wading birds are predicted to increase throughout most of the Everglades under all restoration options because of increased flows and connectivity. Full decompartmentalization goes furthest toward recreating hypothesized historical patterns of fish density by draining excess water ponded by levees and hydrating areas that are currently drier than in the past. In contrast, crayfish density declined and species composition shifted under all restoration options because of lengthened hydroperiods (i.e. time of inundation). Under full decompartmentalization, the distribution of increased prey available for wading birds shifted south, closer to historical locations of nesting activity in Everglades National Park.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2016

Evaluating water management scenarios to support habitat management for the Cape Sable seaside sparrow

The endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow ( Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis ) is endemic to south Florida and a key indicator species of marl prairie, a highly diverse freshwater community in the Florida Everglades. Maintenance and creation of suitable habitat is seen as the most important pathway to the persistence of the six existing sparrow subpopulations; however, major uncertainties remain in how to increase suitable habitat within and surrounding these subpopulations, which are vulnerable to environmental stochasticity. Currently, consistently suitable conditions for the Cape Sable seaside sparrow are only present in two of these subpopulations (B and E). The water management scenarios evaluated herein were intended to lower water levels and improve habitat conditions in subpopulation A and D, raise water levels to improve habitat conditions in subpopulations C and F, and minimize impacts to subpopulations B and E. Our objective in this analysis was to compare these scenarios utilizing a set of metrics (short- to long-time scales) that relate habitat suitability to hydrologic conditions. Although hydrologic outputs are similar across scenarios in subpopulation A, scenario R2H reaches the hydroperiod and depth suitability targets more than the other scenarios relative to ECB, while minimizing negative consequences to subpopulation E. However, although R2H hydroperiods are longer than those for ECB during the wet season in subpopulations C and F, depths during the breeding season are predicted to decrease in suitability (less than -50 cm) relative to existing conditions.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Using Cape Sable seaside sparrow distribution data for water management decision support

The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis; hereafter sparrow) is endemic to south Florida and a key indicator species of marl prairie, the most diverse freshwater community in the Florida Everglades. Marl prairie habitat is shaped by intermediate levels of disturbances such as flooding, drying, and fire, which maintain periphyton production (Gaiser et al. 2011), vegetation composition (Sah et al. 2011), and habitat structure for wildlife (Lockwood et al. 2003). Historically, patches of marl prairie shifted in response to changing climatic conditions,; however, habitat loss and hydrologic alteration have restricted the sparrow’s range and increased their sensitivity to changing hydropatterns. As a result, sparrow numbers have declined as much as 60% range-wide since 1992 (Curnutt et al. 1998, Nott et al. 1998). Currently, the sparrow is restricted to the freshwater prairies of the Everglades National Park (ENP) and Big Cypress Preserve (Lockwood et al. 1997). Because this non-migratory bird is restricted in its range it was among the first species to be listed as endangered by the US Fish and Wildlife Service on March 11, 1967 (Pimm et al. 2000). Now protected by the Endangered Species Act of 1973, the sparrow is listed as an endangered species, and the marl prairies that it resides in are listed as critical habitat. Since its designation as an endangered species, federal agencies have a statutory obligation to not jeopardize the survival of the species or modify its critical habitat. However, there are still uncertainties in how to increase suitable habitat within and surrounding the six existing sparrow subpopulations (Fig. 1) which are vulnerable to environmental stochasticity because of their small population size and restricted range. Since Because maintenance and creation of suitable habitat is seen as the most important pathway to the persistence of sparrow subpopulations (Sustainable Ecosystems Institute 2007), emphasis should be on identifying factors affecting sparrow habitat suitability and expanding the total area of suitable habitat over a gradient of environmental conditions. Our objective is to improve the definition of suitable sparrow habitat based on the relationship between daily sparrow distributions from 1992-present and hydrologic and habitat variables. Further, these models can provide an estimate of habitat quality when linked with estimates of reproductive responses.

Report↗

USGS2016

Management-driven science synthesis: An evaluation of Everglades restoration trajectories

The Synthesis of Everglades Restoration andEcosystem Services (SERES) Project was funded in 2010 by the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) through the Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative (CESI) and established to synthesize the ever-growing body of Everglades scientific information with the goal of addressing topics that have hampered restoration since the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) was passed in 2000. A distinguishing characteristic of this synthesis effort was that the target end-user was a management/ decision-maker audience. Specifically, the aim was to address the questions of the water managers and other decision leaders in a way that would illuminate and inform but not constrain or specify decisions. Since its inception, the SERES Project has been managed by the Everglades Foundation; however, a core group of scientifc experts from agencies, academic institutions, and the private sector have contributed to the project (see list on page 4). We began the project by interviewing key officials, including resource managers, decision-makers, and heads of agencies and environmental organizations. The objective of these interviews was to establish the Key Science Management Questions that needed to be addressed in order to advance restoration of the Everglades. The resulting questions led to the organization of project teams focused on Hydrology, Water Quality, Soils, Trophic Dynamics, and Landscape Pattern. In order to establish the technical basis for the project, we conducted in depth reviews of the recent scientifc literature, evaluation tools and models, and available data in each of these core areas. Finally, we developed a suite of restoration options that would aid us in addressing the Key Questions and evaluated their relative performance from hydrological, ecological, and economic perspectives. General fndings of the SERES Project are described in subsequent sections, and technical reviews and results of analyses supporting this document are available in reports on the project website.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection

Determining habitat quality for wildlife populations requires relating a species' habitat to its survival and reproduction. Within a season, species occurrence and density can be disconnected from measures of habitat quality when resources are highly seasonal, unpredictable over time, and patchy. Here we establish an explicit link among dynamic selection of changing resources, spatio-temporal species distributions, and fitness for predictive abundance and occurrence models that are used for short-term water management and long-term restoration planning. We used the wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM) that estimate (1) daily changes in selection across resource gradients, (2) landscape abundance of flocks and individuals, (3) conspecific foraging aggregation, and (4) resource unit occurrence (at fixed 400 m cells) to quantify habitat quality and its consequences on reproduction for wetland indicator species. We linked maximum annual numbers of nests detected across the study area and nesting success of Great Egrets (Ardea alba), White Ibises (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) over a 20-year period to estimated daily dynamics of food resources produced by WADEM over a 7490 km2 area. For all species, increases in predicted species abundance in March and high abundance in April were strongly linked to breeding responses. Great Egret nesting effort and success were higher when birds also showed greater conspecific foraging aggregation. Synthesis and applications: This study provides the first empirical evidence that dynamic habitat selection processes and distributions of wading birds over environmental gradients are linked with reproductive measures over periods of decades. Further, predictor variables at a variety of temporal (daily-multiannual) resolutions and spatial (400 m to regional) scales effectively explained variation in ecological processes that change habitat quality. The process used here allows managers to develop short- and long-term conservation strategies that (1) consider flexible behavioral patterns and (2) are robust to environmental variation over time.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Linking dynamic habitat selection with wading bird foraging distributions across resource gradients

Species distribution models (SDM) link species occurrence with a suite of environmental predictors and provide an estimate of habitat quality when the variable set captures the biological requirements of the species. SDMs are inherently more complex when they include components of a species' ecology such as conspecific attraction and behavioral flexibility to exploit resources that vary across time and space. Wading birds are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality; thus serving as important indicator species for wetland systems. We developed a spatio-temporal, multi-SDM framework using Great Egret ( Ardea alba ), White Ibis ( Eudocimus albus ), and Wood Stork ( Mycteria Americana ) distributions over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to predict species-specific abundance across space and locations used on the landscape over time. In models of temporal dynamics, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels linked to differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in models predicting locations used over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Species clustered in response to differing habitat conditions, indicating that social attraction can co-vary with foraging strategy, water-level changes, and habitat quality. This modeling framework can be applied to evaluate the multi-annual resource pulses occurring in real-time, climate change scenarios, or restorative hydrological regimes by tracking changing seasonal and annual distribution and abundance of high quality foraging patches.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Physiological condition of juvenile wading birds in relation to multiple landscape stressors in the Florida Everglades: effects of hydrology, prey availability, and mercury bioaccumulation

The physiological condition of juvenile birds can be influenced by multiple ecological stressors, and few studies have concurrently considered the effects of environmental contaminants in combination with ecological attributes that can influence foraging conditions and prey availability. Using three temporally distinct indices of physiological condition, we compared the physiological response of nestling great egrets ( Ardea alba ) and white ibises ( Eudocimus albus ) to changing prey availability, hydrology (water depth, recession rate), and mercury exposure in the Florida Everglades. We found that the physiological response of chicks varied between species and among environmental variables. Chick body condition (short-term index) and fecal corticosterone levels (medium-term) were influenced by wetland water depth, prey availability, region, and age, but not by mercury contamination. However, mercury exposure did influence heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) in egret chicks, indicating a longer-term physiological response to contamination. Our results indicate that the physiological condition of egret and ibis chicks were influenced by several environmental stressors, and the time frame of the effect may depend on the specialized foraging behavior of the adults provisioning the chicks.

Florida↗

USGS2013

Landscape factors and hydrology influence mercury concentrations in wading birds breeding in the Florida Everglades, USA

The hydrology of wetland ecosystems is a key driver of both mercury (Hg) methylation and waterbird foraging ecology, and hence may play a fundamental role in waterbird exposure and risk to Hg contamination. However, few studies have investigated hydrological factors that influence waterbird Hg exposure. We examined how several landscape-level hydrological variables influenced Hg concentrations in great egret and white ibis adults and chicks in the Florida Everglades. The great egret is a visual “exploiter” species that tolerates lower prey densities and is less sensitive to hydrological conditions than is the white ibis, which is a tactile “searcher” species that pursues higher prey densities in shallow water. Mercury concentrations in adult great egrets were most influenced by the spatial region that they occupied in the Everglades (higher in the southern region); whereas the number of days a site was dry during the previous dry season was the most important factor influencing Hg concentrations in adult ibis (Hg concentrations increased with the number of days dry). In contrast, Hg concentrations in egret chicks were most influenced by calendar date (increasing with date), whereas Hg concentrations in ibis chicks were most influenced by chick age, region, and water recession rate (Hg concentrations decreased with age, were higher in the southern regions, and increased with positive water recession rates). Our results indicate that both recent (preceding two weeks) hydrological conditions, and those of the prior year, influence Hg concentrations in wading birds. Further, these results suggest that Hg exposure in wading birds is driven by complex relationships between wading bird behavior and life stage, landscape hydrologic patterns, and biogeochemical processes.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Dynamic habitat selection by two wading bird species with divergent foraging strategies in a seasonally fluctuating wetland

Seasonal and annual variation in food availability during the breeding season plays an influential role in the population dynamics of many avian species. In highly dynamic ecosystems like wetlands, finding and exploiting food resources requires a flexible behavioral response that may produce different population trends that vary with a species' foraging strategy. We quantified dynamic foraging-habitat selection by breeding and radiotagged White Ibises ( Eudocimus albus ) and Great Egrets ( Ardea alba ) in the Florida Everglades, where fluctuation in food resources is pronounced because of seasonal drying and flooding. The White Ibis is a tactile “searcher” species in population decline that specializes on highly concentrated prey, whereas the Great Egret, in a growing population, is a visual “exploiter” species that requires lower prey concentrations. In a year with high food availability, resource-selection functions for both species included variables that changed over multiannual time scales and were associated with increased prey production. In a year with low food availability, resource-selection functions included short-term variables that concentrated prey (e.g., water recession rates and reversals in drying pattern), which suggests an adaptive response to poor foraging conditions. In both years, the White Ibis was more restricted in its use of habitats than the Great Egret. Real-time species—habitat suitability models were developed to monitor and assess the daily availability and quality of spatially explicit habitat resources for both species. The models, evaluated through hindcasting using independent observations, demonstrated that habitat use of the more specialized White Ibis was more accurately predicted than that of the more generalist Great Egret.

The Auk↗