Geology topics

James D. Nichols

Publications and source records attributed to James D. Nichols.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

USGS1991

Science, population ecology, and the management of the American black duck

This essay deals with the relevance of some of the ideas of Romesburg (1981) to population ecology and management of the American black duck ( Anas rubripes ). Most investigations dealing with the effects of hunting regulations on black duck populations have used the hypothetico-deductive (H-D) approach of specifying a priori hypotheses and associated deduced predictions. These investigations have not used manipulative experimentation, however, but have involved severely constrained analyses of historical data and have thus produced weak inferences. The 1982 lawsuit over black duck hunting regulations, the current uncertainty about appropriate black duck management actions, and the frequent skirmishes in the published literature of black duck population ecology are natural consequences of these weak inferences. I suggest that we attempt to take advantage of management and other manipulations by treating them as an opportunity to learn something via experimentation, as recommended by Macnab (1983) and Walters (1986).

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1990

Survival rates of birds of tropical and temperate forests: Will the dogma survive?

Survival rates of tropical forest birds are widely assumed to be high relative to the survival rates of temperate forest birds. Much life-history theory is based on this assumption despite the lack of empirical data to support it. We provide the first detailed comparison of survival rates of tropical and temperate forest birds based on extensive data bases and modern capture-recapture models. We find no support for the conventional wisdom. Because clutch size is only one component of reproductive rate, the frequently assumed, simple association between clutch size and adult survival rates should not necessarily be expected. Our results emphasize the need to consider components of fecundity in addition to clutch size when comparing the life histories of tropical and temperate birds and suggest similar considerations in the development of vertebrate life-history theory.

American Naturalist↗

USGS1990

Estimation of recruitment from immigration versus in situ reproduction using Pollock's robust design

Recruitment to animal populations can occur through both immigration and in situ reproduction. These two components of recruitment are conceptually distinct and lead to different mechanistic models of population dynamics. We describe a capture—recapture design that can be used to obtain separate estimates of two recruitment components. We then illustrate the use of our method and estimators with capture—recapture data from a population of Microtus pennsylvanicus at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Maryland.

Ecology↗

USGS1990

Effects of tillage practices and carbofuran exposure on small mammals

We compared population estimates, body mass, movement, and blood chemistry of small mammals between conventionally tilled and no-till cornfields in Maryland and Pennsylvania to evaluate the effects of tillage practices and carbofuran exposure on small mammals. Estimates suggest that populations of white-footed mice ( Peromyscus leucopus ) were not significantly related (P > 0.05) to tillage practice or to the presence of winter rye cover crops. Late summer differences in animal mass and movement, and in the proportion of reproductively inactive animals imply that characteristics of individuals and reproductive activity can be affected by tillage practices and winter cover crops. The presence of granular carbofuran had no apparent effect on populations, body mass, or movement in conventionally tilled or no-till fields. Similarly, neither red blood cell acetylcholinesterase, hematocrit, nor liver function were affected by carbofuran use.

Maryland, Pennsylvania↗

USGS1990

Survival and band recovery rates of mallards in New Zealand

Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) were banded at 4 discrete study areas in New Zealand. We used hunting season recoveries in conjunction with band recovery models to estimate annual survival and recovery rates and to test hypotheses about sources of variation in these rates. Recovery rates varied among the 4 areas and from year to year within areas. Recovery rates were generally higher for young mallards than for adults, and recovery rates of males were higher than those of females. Survival rates varied among the 4 areas and from year to year within some areas. Survival rates of females were lower than those of males, but survival rates of young birds were not consistently lower than those of adults. Average survival rates over all 4 areas were generally lower than averages for North American mallards.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1990

Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments

This monograph presents a detailed, practical exposition on the design, analysis, and interpretation of capture-recapture studies. The Lincoln-Petersen model (Chapter 2) and the closed population models (Chapter 3) are presented only briefly because these models have been covered in detail elsewhere. The Jolly- Seber open population model, which is central to the monograph, is covered in detail in Chapter 4. In Chapter 5 we consider the "enumeration" or "calendar of captures" approach, which is widely used by mammalogists and other vertebrate ecologists. We strongly recommend that it be abandoned in favor of analyses based on the Jolly-Seber model. We consider 2 restricted versions of the Jolly-Seber model. We believe the first of these, which allows losses (mortality or emigration) but not additions (births or immigration), is likely to be useful in practice. Another series of restrictive models requires the assumptions of a constant survival rate or a constant survival rate and a constant capture rate for the duration of the study. Detailed examples are given that illustrate the usefulness of these restrictions. There often can be a substantial gain in precision over Jolly-Seber estimates. In Chapter 5 we also consider 2 generalizations of the Jolly-Seber model. The temporary trap response model allows newly marked animals to have different survival and capture rates for 1 period. The other generalization is the cohort Jolly-Seber model. Ideally all animals would be marked as young, and age effects considered by using the Jolly-Seber model on each cohort separately. In Chapter 6 we present a detailed description of an age-dependent Jolly-Seber model, which can be used when 2 or more identifiable age classes are marked. In Chapter 7 we present a detailed description of the "robust" design. Under this design each primary period contains several secondary sampling periods. We propose an estimation procedure based on closed and open population models that allows for heterogeneity and trap response of capture rates (hence the name robust design). We begin by considering just 1 age class and then extend to 2 age classes. When there are 2 age classes it is possible to distinguish immigrants and births. In Chapter 8 we give a detailed discussion of the design of capture-recapture studies. First, capture-recapture is compared to other possible sampling procedures. Next, the design of capture-recapture studies to minimize assumption violations is considered. Finally, we consider the precision of parameter estimates and present figures on proportional standard errors for a variety of initial parameter values to aid the biologist about to plan a study. A new program, JOLLY, has been written to accompany the material on the Jolly-Seber model (Chapter 4) and its extensions (Chapter 5). Another new program, JOLLYAGE, has been written for a special case of the age-dependent model (Chapter 6) where there are only 2 age classes. In Chapter 9 a brief description of the different versions of the 2 programs is given. Chapter 10 gives a brief description of some alternative approaches that were not considered in this monograph. We believe that an excellent overall view of capture- recapture models may be obtained by reading the monograph by White et al. (1982) emphasizing closed models and then reading this monograph where we concentrate on open models. The important recent monograph by Burnham et al. (1987) could then be read if there were interest in the comparison of different populations.

Book↗

USGS1989

Postfledging survival of European starlings

We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two—day intensive observation periods for >9 wk postfledging. Postfledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to postfledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear—cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this also influenced survival. Highest survival probability estimates occurred in the EARLY—HEAVY group while the lowest survival estimate occurred in the LATE—NIGHT group. Sighting probabilities differed significantly among groups, emphasizing the need to estimate and compare survival using models which explicitly incorporate sighting probabilities.

Ecology↗

USGS1989

Mallard survival from local to immature stage in southwestern Saskatchewan

We used 3,670 recoveries from 32,647 bandings of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) in southwestern Saskatchewan during 1956-59 to estimate the probability of surviving from the local, flightless (classes II and III) stage to the flighted, immature stage. The probability of surviving from the local to the immature stage was 0.84 ± 0.05 (SE) for males and females. The geographic distribution of direct recoveries was similar for the birds banded as local and immature. Probabilities of survival for banded mallards can only be estimated from late summer to late summer. The estimate of survival from local to immature stage fills a gap in our knowledge of mallard mortality from female-brood breakup to the time of banding in late summer.

southwestern Saskatchewan↗

USGS1989

Annual survival rates of breeding adult roseate terns

Analyses of the capture-recapture data on 910 individual Roseate Terns ( Sterna dougallii ) trapped from 1978-1987 as breeding adults on nests on Falkner Island, Connecticut, estimate the average annual minimum adult survival rate to be 0.74-0.75. There was weak evidence of year-to-year variation in annual survival rates during the study period. The Jolly-Seber models used to estimate survival rates also generated estimates of population size and capture probabilities. To determine the relative importance of adult mortality and permanent emigration in contributing to the estimated annual loss of one-fourth of the breeding population will require further study of intercolony movement between all the major colony sites. Assuming that the loss of birds from the Falkner Island colony site is due mostly to mortality rather than permanent emigration, and that the survival rate of this breeding population is typical of the entire North Atlantic breeding population, then the survival rate of this endangered species is low in comparison to the survival rates of several other marine bird species in the orders Procellariiformes, Pelecaniformes, and Charadriiformes.

The Auk↗

USGS1988

Distribution patterns during winter and fidelity to wintering areas of American black ducks

The distribution patterns during winter of American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) were compared among age – sex classes using band recovery data. In addition, fidelity to wintering areas was compared between sexes and between coastal and inland wintering sites. We did not find evidence of age- or sex-specific differences in distribution patterns ( P > 0.10). Black ducks exhibited a stronger fidelity to coastal wintering areas ( P < 0.01), but there were no sex-specific differences ( P > 0.30). We believe that the early formation of breeding pairs and possibly predictable food resources may reduce age – sex segregation in distribution patterns during winter. The predictability of food resources in coastal, as opposed to inland, wintering areas is likely responsible for the greater fidelity of black ducks to coastal wintering sites.

Delaware, Illinois, Labrador, Maine, Maryland, Mas↗

USGS1988

Distribution patterns of American black duck and mallard winter band recoveries

We compared the distribution patterns of winter band recoveries of American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) and mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) banded in the same breeding areas. Young black ducks wintered northeast of young mallards but no differences in distribution patterns were detected between adult birds of the 2 species. Mallards exhibited greater temporal variation in distribution patterns and less fidelity to wintering areas. We speculate that these differences in distribution patterns are related to different behavioral responses by mallards and black ducks to variation in resource availability. Black ducks may reduce energy expenditure during periods of extreme cold and wait for conditions to improve, whereas mallards may migrate to areas that are warmer of where more food is available. The availability of quality habitat may be critical to the survival of black ducks during harsh weather conditions because of their relative lack of migrational flexibility, whereas mallards may be able to respond by migrating to favorable environments.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1987

Age-specificity of black-capped chickadee survival rates: Analysis of capture-recapture data

The ornithological literature indicates a widespread belief in two generalizations about the age—specificity of avian survival rates: (1) survival rates of young birds for some period following fledging are lower than those of adults, and (2) after reaching adulthood survival rates are constant for birds of all ages. There is a growing body of evidence in support of the first generalization, although little is known about how long the survival difference between young and adults lasts. This latter question can be addressed with capture—recapture or band recovery studies based on birds marked in the winter, but the inability to determine age in many species during winter has prevented the use of standard methods. There is very little evidence supporting the second generalization, and we are in need of methods and actual analyses that address this question. In the present paper we restate the two generalizations as hypotheses and test them using data from a wintering Black—capped Chickadee (Parus atricapillus) population in Connecticut, which has been studied by Loery for 26 yr. We use a cohort—based Jolly—Seber approach, which should be useful in other investigations of this nature. We found strong evidence of lower survival rates in 1st—yr birds than in adults, but could not determine whether this was the result of higher mortality rates, higher emigration rates, or a combination of the two. We also found evidence that survival rates of adult birds were not constant with age but decreased at a rate of ° 3.5%/yr. As adult birds are very faithful to their wintering areas, we believe that almost all this decrease can be attributed to an increase in mortality with age. Simulation results suggest that heterogeneity of capture probabilities could not explain the magnitude of the decrease in survival with age. Age—dependent tag loss is also discussed as an alternative explanation, but is dismissed as very unlikely in this situation. This analysis thus provides some of the first evidence of declining adult survival probabilities with age for any bird species.

Ecology↗

USGS1987

The Husting dilemma: A methodological note

Recently, Gill (1985) discussed the interpretation of capture history data resulting from his own studies on the red-spotted newt, Notophthalmus viridescens , and work by Husting (1965) on spotted salamanders, Ambystoma maculatum. Gill (1985) noted that gaps in capture histories (years in which individuals were not captured, preceded and followed by years in which they were) could result from either of two very different possibilities: (1) failure of the animal to return to the fenced pond to breed (the alternative Husting (1965) favored), or (2) return of the animal to the breeding pond, but failure of the investigator to capture it and detect its presence. The authors agree entirely with Gill (1985) that capture history data such as his or those of Husting (1965) should be analyzed using models that recognize the possibility of 'census error,' and that it is important to try to distinguish between such 'error' and skipped breeding efforts. The purpose of this note is to point out the relationship between Gill's (1985:347) null model and certain capture-recapture models, and to use capture-recapture models and tests to analyze the original data of Husting (1965).

Ecology↗

USGS1987

Survival and band recovery rates of sympatric American black ducks and mallards

Banding and recovery data from American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) and mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) banded in the same breeding or wintering areas over the same time periods were used to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates. Recovery rates, based on preseason bandings, were very similar for sympatric black ducks and mallards and exhibited similar patterns of year-to-year variation for the 2 species. Tests for differences between the species in annual survival rates yielded equivocal results. We tentatively conclude that annual survival rates of mallards generally were not higher than those of black ducks banded in the same areas. The apparent difference in population status between black ducks and eastern mallards does not seem to result from differences in mortality rate. Nevertheless, we should attempt to identify management practices that might increase survival probabilities of black ducks.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1987

Survival of young American alligators on a Florida lake

A capture-recapture study was conducted on Orange Lake, Florida, from 1979 through 1984 to estimate survival rates of young in an American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) populations. Hatchlings remained together in sibling groups (pods) for at least their 1st year and then began to disperse during their 2nd spring and summer. Mortality through mid-November of their 1st year was negligible. Jolly-Seber (JS) survival estimates of hatchlings for 6 and 12 months were 76 and 41%, respectively. The 2-year JS estimate for the 1980 cohort was 8%. Minimum-Known-Alive (MKA) survival values were 72 and 46% of JS estimates for 6 months and 1 year of age. Survival during the 2nd 6 months of life (spring-summer) tended to be lower than survival during the 1st 6 months (fall-winter).

Florida↗

USGS1987

Population ecology of the mallard VIII: Winter distribution patterns and survival rates of winter-banded mallards

In the present report we address questions about winter distribution patterns and survival rates of North American mallards Anas platyrhynchos . Inferences are based on analyses of banding and recovery data from both winter and preseason banding period. The primary wintering range of the mallard was dividded into 45 minor reference areas and 15 major reference areas which were used to summarize winter banding data. Descriptive tables and figures on the recovery distributions of winter-banded mallards are presented. Using winter recoveries of preseason-banded mallards, we found apparent differences between recovery distribution of young versus adult birds from the same breeding ground reference areas. However, we found no sex-specific differences in winter recovery distribution patterns. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded birds also provided evidence that mallards exhibited some degree of year-to-year variation in wintering ground location. The age- and sex-specificity of such variation was tested using winter recoveries of winter-banded birds, and results indicated that subadult (first year) birds were less likely to return to the same wintering grounds the following year than adults. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded mallards during 1950-58 differed from distributions in 1966-76. These differences could have resulted from either true distributional shifts or geographic changes in hunting pressure. Survival and recovery rates were estimated from winter banding data. We found no evidence of differences in survival or recovery rates between subadult and adult mallards. Thus, the substantial difference between survival rates of preseason-banded young and adult mallards must result almost entirely from higher mortality of young birds during the approximate period, August-January. Male mallards showed higher survival than females, corroborating inferences based on preseason data. Tests with winter banding and band recovery data indicated some degree of year-to-year variation in both survival and recovery rates, a result again consistent with inference from preseason data. Some evidence indication geographic variation in survival rates; however, there were no consistent directional differences between survival rates of mallards from adjacent northern versus southern areas, or eastern versus western areas. In some comparisons, Central Flyway mallards exhibited slightly higher survival rates than mallards from other flyways. Weighted mean estimates of continental survival rates were computed for the period 1960-77 from both winter banding data and preseason banding of adults. Resulting estimates differed significantly for males, but not for females, and the magnitude of the difference between point estimates was relatively small, even for males. The direction of the difference between these estimates was predicted correctly from previous work on the effects of heterogeneous survival an d recovery rates on band recovery model estimates. The similarity of survival estimates from these two independent data sets supports the believe that biases in these estimates are relatively small.

Resource Publication↗

USGS1986

Effect of Orthene on an unconfined population of the meadow vole (Microtus pennsylvanicus)

The possible impact on Microtus pennsylvanicus of ground applications of Orthene ® insecticide was investigated in old-field habitats in northern Maryland during 1982 and 1983. The treatment grids in 1982 and 1983 were sprayed at 0.62 and 0.82 kg active ingredient/ha, respectively. A capture–recapture design robust to unequal capture probabilities was utilized to estimate population size, survival, and recruitment. Data on reproductive activity and relative weight change were also collected to investigate the effect of the insecticide treatment. There were no significant differences in population size or recruitment between control and treatment grids which could be directly related to the treatment. Survival rate was significantly lower on the treatment grid than on the control grid after spraying in 1983; however, survival rate was higher on the treatment grid after spraying in 1982. Significantly fewer pregnant adults were found on the treatment grid after spraying in 1982, whereas the proportions of voles lactating or with perforate vaginas or open pubic symphyses were slightly higher or remained unchanged during this period. Relative weight change was not affected by the treatment. Results do not indicate any pattern of inhibitory effects from the insecticide treatment. Field application of Orthene ® did not have an adverse effect on this Microtus population.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

USGS1986

Physiological condition of autumn-banded mallards and its relationship to hunting vulnerability

An important topic of waterfowl ecology concerns the relationship between the physiological condition of ducks during the nonbreeding season and fitness, i.e., survival and future reproductive success. We investigated this subject using direct band recovery records of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) banded in autumn (1 Oct-15 Dec) 1981-83 in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) [USA]. A condition index, weight (g)/wing length (mm), was calculated for each duck, and we tested whether condition of mallards at time of banding was related to their probability of recovery during the hunting season. In 3 years, 5,610 mallards were banded and there were 234 direct recoveries. Three binary regression model was used to test the relationship between recovery probability and condition. Likelihood-ratio tests were conducted to determine the most suitable model. For mallards banded in autumn there was a negative relationship between physical condition and the probability of recovery. Mallards in poor condition at the time of banding had a greater probability of being recovered during the hunting season. In general, this was true for all ages and sex classes; however, the strongest relationship occurred for adult males.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗