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James C. Savage

Publications and source records attributed to James C. Savage.

71 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Strain accumulation near Yucca Mountain, Nevada, 1993-1998

A 50‐km aperture geodetic network centered on the proposed high‐level radioactive waste disposal site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, was surveyed with GPS in 1993 and 1998. The average deformation rate across the area is described by the principal strain rates 22.8±8.8 nstrain yr N77.6°W±13.5° and −8.8±11.9 nstrain yr N12.5°E±13.5° (extension reckoned positive) and a clockwise rotation rate about a vertical axis of 9.6±7.4 nrad yr relative to fixed North America. Quoted uncertainties are standard deviations. Those strain rates are consistent with the geodetic strain rates (2±12 nstrain yr N87°±12°W and −22±12 nstrain yr N03°±12°E) previously reported by . [1999] for the 1983–1998 interval and with the low extension rate (5–20 nstrain yr) [., 1998] inferred from the geologic record. None of those strain rates is consistent with the 50±9 nstrain yr N65°W extension rate for the area reported by Wernicke et al.

Nevada↗
USGS1998

Deformation across the rupture zone of the 1964 Alaska earthquake, 1993–1997

A linear array of 15 geodetic monuments was installed in 1993 across the rupture zone of the 1964 Alaska earthquake ( M w = 9.2). The array extends from Middleton Island (at the edge of the continental shelf and 80 km from the Alaska‐Aleutian trench) to north of Palmer, Alaska (380 km from the trench), in the approximate direction of Pacific‐North American plate convergence (N15.5°W). The array was surveyed in June 1993, May 1995, and June 1997. The changes between surveys are a measure of the deformation of the continental margin across the subduction zone in southern Alaska. Measured relative to the interior of the North American plate, the horizontal velocities on the outer plate margin are parallel to the direction of plate convergence (N15.5°W ) and reach a maximum (58 mm yr −1 ) about 150 km from the trench. Beyond about 300 km from the trench the observed horizontal velocities are small. A narrow (halfwidth 50 km) zone of significant uplift (10 mm yr −1 maximum) is observed about 300 km from the trench, coinciding roughly with the locus of maximum coseismic subsidence associated with the 1964 Alaska earthquake. Although the deformation is roughly described by the conventional model of deformation at a subduction zone (deformation due to virtual back slip on the main thrust zone at the 55 mm yr −1 plate convergence rate), a better fit is given with a 65 mm yr −1 virtual back (normal) slip rate. This higher rate is attributed to continued postseismic relaxation. The model does not explain the relatively high uplift rate and low N15.5°W velocity observed at Middleton Island. That anomalous motion is attributed to continued thrusting on postulated upward trending splays from the subduction zone beneath the island.

Alaska↗
USGS1998

Deformation following the 1994 Northridge Earthquake (M=6.7), Southern California

Following the 1994 M w =6.7 Northridge earthquake, a 65‐km‐long, north‐south array of 11 geodetic monuments was established across the rupture. The array was surveyed with GPS ten times in the 4.25 yr after the earthquake. Although there is evidence for modest nonlinear postseismic relaxation in the first few weeks after the Northridge earthquake, the deformation in the subsequent four years can be adequately described by constant station velocities. The observed S70°E velocity components are consistent with the deformation expected from steady strain accumulation on the San Andreas fault. The N20°E velocity components indicate that the southern Northridge fault block is moving almost as a unit N20°E with repect to the northern fault block, the motion being accommodated by a zone of convergence (width 20 km) at the north end of the Northridge rupture.

California↗
USGS1997

Surface strain accumulation and the seismic moment tensor

Although the scalar moment accumulation rate within the seismogenic zone beneath a given area is sometimes deduced from the observed average surface strain accumulation rate over that same area (e.g., Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1995), the correspondence between the two is very uncertain. The equivalence between surface strain accumulation and scalar moment accumulation is based on Kostrov's (1974) relation between the average strain rate over a volume and the moment-rate tensor for that volume. The average strain rate over the volume is replaced by the average strain rate measured at the free surface to deduce an approximate moment-rate tensor. Only in exceptional circumstances will that moment-rate tensor correspond to a double-couple mechanism, a mechanism that can be represented by a scalar moment accumulation rate. More generally, the moment tensor must be resolved into the superposition of two or more double-couple mechanisms, and that resolution can be done in many ways, each with its own scalar moment rate. Thus the resolution is not unique. This is demonstrated by deducing scalar moment accumulation rates for a GPS network that covers most of California south of San Francisco. It is shown that resolutions into different double-couple mechanisms lead to scalar moment accumulation rates differing by factors of ∼2. We suggest that the minimum scalar moment rate equivalent to principal surface strain rates ɛ 1 and ɛ 2 acting over the area A is M 0 (min) = 2 μHA Max (¦ ɛ 1 ¦, ¦ ɛ 2 ¦, ¦ ɛ 1 + ɛ 2 ¦), where μ is the rigidity and H the depth of seismogenic zone, and the function Max is equal to the largest of its arguments. Within the uncertainites of measurement, the scalar moment accumulation rate in southern California based on that approximation is in balance with the average historic seismic moment release rate so that no current earthquake deficit need be accumulating.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1997

Post seismic deformation associated with the 1992 Mω = 7.3 Landers earthquake, southern California

Following the 1992 M ω =7.3 Landers earthquake, a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5‐km spacing was established across the Emerson fault segment of the Landers rupture. The array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it. The array was surveyed by Global Positioning System 0.034, 0.048, 0.381, 1.27, 1.88, 2.60, and 3.42 years after the Landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation. The temporal behavior is described roughly by a short‐term (decay time 84±23 days) exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend. Because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions, we attribute that trend to a slower (decay time greater than 5 years) postseismic relaxation, the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run (3.4 years) of postseismic data. About 100 mm of right‐lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault‐normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3.4‐year interval covered by the postseismic surveys. Those displacements are attributed to postseismic, right‐lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace. The right‐lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array, and the fault‐normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture. These conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation. However, no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error.

California↗
USGS1995

Strain accumulation in Owens Valley, California, 1974 to 1988

Strain accumulation observed over the 1974 to 1988 interval in a 25 by 100 km aperture trilateration network spanning Owens Valley is adequately described by a strain rate that is uniform in space and time. The tensor strain-rate components referred to a coordinate system with the 2 axis directed N18°W (parallel to the trend of the valley) and the 1 axis N72°E are ∈˙11′ = 0.042 ± 0.014 μstrain/yr, ∈˙12′ = -0.058 ± 0.007 μstrain/yr, and ∈˙22′ = 0.002 ± 0.014 μstrain/yr; quoted uncertainties are standard deviations and extension is reckoned positive. Across the 25-km breadth of the network, this amounts to 1.0 ± 0.3 mm/yr extension normal to the axis of the valley, 2.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr right-lateral shear across the axis, and no extension parallel to the axis. If the measured strain accumulation is attributed to slip on the deeper section of the Owens Valley fault with the uppermost 10 km of the fault locked, the observed right-lateral deformation would imply about 7 mm/yr right-lateral slip on the buried fault, much greater than the geologic estimate of 2 ± 0.5 mm/yr right-lateral secular slip (Beanland and Clark, 1994). Nor is the observed uplift profile across the valley consistent with continuing normal slip on just the deep segment of the Owens Valley fault; normal slip at depth on the Sierra frontal fault also seems to be required. The observed deformation across Owens Valley apparently implies processes more complicated than those represented by the conventional model of strain accumulation along a throughgoing fault.

California↗
USGS1993

The Parkfield prediction fallacy

The Parkfield earthquake prediction is generally stated as a 95% probability that the next moderate earthquake there should occur before January 1993. That time limit is based on a two-sided 95% confidence interval. Because at the time of the prediction (1985) it was already clear that the earthquake had not occurred prior to 1985, a one-sided 95% confidence interval would have been more appropriate. That confidence interval ended in October 1991. The Parkfield prediction was based on an extrapolation of five of the six events in the 1857 to 1966 earthquake sequence; the 1934 event was omitted because it did not fit the regularity exhibited by the other data. The fallacy in the prediction is that it did not take account of other less-contrived explanations of the Parkfield seismicity (e.g., not excluding the 1934 event). Even if the Parkfield earthquake should occur in the near future, it would be better explained by less-contrived hypotheses.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1993

The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Preseismic observations

The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., Ms=7.1 earthquake provided the first opportunity in the history of fault monitoring in the United States to gather multidisciplinary preearthquake data in the near field of an M=7 earthquake. The data obtained include observations on seismicity, continuous strain, long-term ground displacement, magnetic field, and hydrology. The papers in this chapter describe these data, their implications for fault-failure mechanisms, the scale of prerupture nucleation, and earthquake prediction in general. Of the 10 papers presented here, about half identify preearthquake anomalies in the data, but some of these results are equivocal. Seismicity in the Loma Prieta region during the 20 years leading up to the earthquake was unremarkable. In retrospect, however, it is apparent that the principal southwest-dipping segment of the subsequent Loma Prieta rupture was virtually aseismic during this period. Two M=5 earthquakes did occur near Lake Elsman near the junction of the Sargent and San Andreas faults within 2.5 and 15 months of, and 10 km to the north of, the Loma Prieta epicenter. Although these earthquakes were not on the subsequent rupture plane of the Loma Prieta earthquake and other M=5 earthquakes occurred in the preceding 25 years, it is now generally accepted that these events were, in some way, foreshocks to the main event.

California↗
USGS1991

Criticism of some forecasts of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities has assigned probabilities for rupture in the interval from 1988 to 2018 to various segments of the San Andreas fault on the basis of the lognormal distribution of recurrence times of characteristic earthquakes postulated by Nishenko and Buland (1987). I question the validity of those probabilities on the basis of three separate arguments: (1) The distributions of recurrence times of the four, best-observed, characteristic-earthquake sequences are each only marginally consistent with the Nishenko - Buland Iognormal distribution. (2) The range of possible 30-year conditional probabilities for many of the fault segments is so great due to uncertainty in the average recurrence time for that segment that the assigned probability is virtually meaningless. (3) The 1988 forecasts not subject to the foregoing objection are those in which there is a low probability of an earthquake in the near future (e.g., only a 5 per cent chance of rupture of the North Coast segment before the year 2049 and of the Carrizo segment before the year 2018). The same reasoning would assign only a 5 per cent chance of rupture before mid-1993 to the southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment, the segment that failed in October 1989. Finally, the forecast of the next Parkfield earthquake (95 per cent probability before 1993.0) by Bakun and Lindh (1985) depends upon an ad hoc explanation of the out-of-sequence 1934 earthquake. A less-contrived forecast would have assigned a conditional probability of about 60 ± 20 per cent to the 1985.0 to 1993.0 interval and 30 ± 15 per cent to the 1990.0 to 1993.0 interval.

California↗
USGS1983

Strain accumulation in western United States

This review is principally concerned with recent geodetic strain measurements in western United States undertaken by the US Geological Survey as part of the earthquake studies program and, as a consequence, is heavily biased toward the author's own publications. Most of the publications reporting crustal-strain measurements in western United States prior to about 1968 have been compiled in one volume (National Geodetic Survey 1973), and more recent work (with complete bibliographies) is summarized in three successive quadrennial reports to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (Meade 1971, Savage 1975, Thatcher 1979b). The following conventions are employed in this paper: Strain, a dimensionless quantity, is reported in units of 10 6 Extension is taken as positive. To distinguish between engineering and tensor shear strain, we denote the former by γ and quote the units as μr ad, whereas the latter is denoted by e and given the units of μ strain. Uncertainties in all cases are quoted as ± one standard deviation.

California↗
USGS1982

Triggering of large earthquakes by magma-chamber inflation, Izu Peninsula (Japan)

A close spatial and temporal association between three aseismic uplift episodes and subsequent large (M ≈ 7) earthquakes on the Izu Peninsula, Japan, suggests a causal relation. Quaternary geology, as well as studies by other workers, indicates a volcanic origin for the observed uplift, and we use a simple inflation model constrained by leveling data to compute the expected increments in normal and shear stress across faults that ruptured in the earthquakes. Using a Mohr-Coulomb criterion, we find that in two cases out of three, stress changes induced by inflation are in the correct sense to trigger failure. Although changes are no more than a few bars, they represent the equivalent of several decades to a century of secular stress buildup.

Izu Peninsula↗
USGS1974

Geodetic determination of strain at the Nevada Test Site following the Handley event

Repeated surveys of a trilateration network (aperture greater than 20 km) centered on ground zero for the HANDLEY event, a nuclear explosion at the Nevada Test Site with yield in excess of 1 megaton, suggest that the explosion induced an east-west extension of the network by more than 50 mm. In the year following the detonation, this deformation reversed such that the final configuration represented a small east-west contraction from the pre-HANDLEY state. In the subsequent 2-year period, only minor deformation was detected. Thus, the overall response of Pahute Mesa may be described as stable. The explosion-induced deformation is thought to be partly due to slip on faults driven by the large-amplitude seismic waves from the explosion. The mechanism of the postshot relaxation is not understood.

Nevada↗
USGS1974

Effects of the Bear Valley and San Juan Bautista earthquakes of 1972 on Geodimeter line lengths

Measurements of lines of the California Geodimeter network in the vicinity of the epicenters of four 1972 earthquakes (magnitudes 4.7, 4.7, 4.8, and 5.1) along the San Andreas fault system indicate that no significant anomalous changes in line length preceded or accompanied those earthquakes. Within the precision of measurement, the data are consistent with a linear change in line length with time. Measurements of two 20-km-long lines made 2 days before and 1 day after a magnitude 4.7 earthquake showed no significant change even though the epicenter of the earthquake was only about 15 km from each of the three stations at the end points of the lines.

California↗
USGS1970

Mechanism of the Chilean Earthquakes of May 21 and 22, 1960

The Chilean earthquake sequence of May 21–22, 1960, was accompanied by linear zones of tectonic warping, including both uplift and subsidence relative to sea level. The region involved is more than 200 km wide and about 1000 km long, and lies along the continental margin between latitude 37° and 48° S. Significant horizontal strains accompanied the vertical movements in parts of the subsided zone for which triangulation data are available. Displacements were initiated near the northern end of the deformed region during the opening earthquake of the sequence (M s ≅ 7.5) on May 21 at 10h 02m 50s GMT and were extended over the remainder of the region during the culminating shock (M s ≅ 8.5) on May 22 at 19h llm 17s GMT. During the latter event, sudden uplift of adjacent portions of the continental shelf and much or all of the continental slope apparently generated the destructive tsunami that immediately followed the main shock. Available data suggest that the primary fault or zone of faulting along which displacement occurred probably is a complex thrust fault roughly 1000 km long and at least 60 km wide; it dips eastward at a moderate angle beneath the continental margin and intersects the surface on the continental slope. Dip slip required to satisfy the surface displacements is at least 20 m and perhaps as large as 40 m. There is some evidence that there was a minor component of right-lateral slip on the fault plane.

GSA Bulletin↗