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J.E. Hines

Publications and source records attributed to J.E. Hines.

107 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS1990

Flexible models for analysing ring recovery data to estimate survival rates

We describe MULT, a flexible procedure for analysing ring recovery data. The procedure starts with parametric structures similar to, but more general than, those described by Brownie et al. (1985). Particular models, including those in Brownie et al. (1965), can be obtained by imposing constraints on the general parametric structures. Examples of models that are available in MULT include: analysis of ringing data when no birds are ringed in some years; analysis of twice-yearly ringing to estimate interval survivorship; and analysis of ringing data when survivorship is hypothesised to be a function of a covariate measured annually. We use North American ringings of Atlantic Brant (Branta bernicla hrota), Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), and Ring-necked Ducks (Aythya collaris) to illustrate the above models. MULT is a menu-driven, IBM-PC compatible program, and is available from the second author.

Ring↗
USGS1989

Procedures for the Analysis of Band-recovery Data and User Instructions for Program MULT

We briefly review methods for inference from band-recovery data and introduce a new, flexible procedure (MULT) for analysis of data from bird-banding studies. We compare our computing method to program SURIV and discuss the relative advanatages of each. We present several basic model structures that can be analyzed using program MULT and for each model structure describe estimation and hypothesis testing and give a data example. We provide a complete description of porgram MULT, which is IBM-PC compatible and may be run as either an interactive or a batch-mode program.

Resource Publication↗
USGS1989

A computer program for sample size computations for banding studies

Sample sizes necessary for estimating survival rates of banded birds, adults and young, are derived based on specified levels of precision. The banding study can be new or ongoing. The desired coefficient of variation (CV) for annual survival estimates, the CV for mean annual survival estimates, and the length of the study must be specified to compute sample sizes. A computer program is available for computation of the sample sizes, and a description of the input and output is provided.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report↗
USGS1989

Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report↗
USGS1988

Postfledging survival of European starlings exposed as nestlings to an organophosphorus insecticide

To test the hypothesis that exposure to organophosphorus (OP) insecticides reduces postfledging survival of altricial birds, 16—d—old European Starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) were weighed and orally dosed with corn oil containing 6.0 mg of dicrotophos per kilogram of body mass or an equivalent exposure of pure corn oil (controls). Two days later, each survivor was weighed again and patagially tagged for identification after fledging. Resightings of marked fledglings were made during weekly 2—d intensive observations yielding four estimates of postfledging survival. Before fledging, only OP—dosed birds died (18.5%), and OP—dosed survivors lost more mass (5.2%, P = .001) than controls (1.4%) but their masses on day 18 were only slightly lower (2% of control mean, P = .10). Brain cholinesterase activity, a sensitive indicator of OP exposure in birds, was depressed and average of 93% in OP—dosed nestlings that died compared to controls, and an average of 46% in OP—dosed nestlings alive on day 18. Age at fledging, postfledging survival, flocking behavior, and habitat use, however, did not differ between OP—dosed and control birds. The effects of the OP on the nestlings appeared to be rapid, to be reversible in survivors, and did not extend into the postfledging period. In addition, we found no relationship between body mass at fledging and postfledging survival.

Maryland↗
USGS1986

The relationship between body mass and survival of wintering canvasbacks

Mass and recapture histories of 6,000 Canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) banded in upper Chesapeake Bay were used to test two hypotheses: (1) early-winter body mass is associated with the probability of surviving the winter, and (2) early-winter body mass is associated with annual survival probability. Data were analyzed by a binary regression method that treated mass as a continuous variable and estimated parameters to describe a general relationship between body mass and survival probability. Results for adult males, which provided our largest data sets, presented strong evidence that birds with high relative early-winter masses had both greater overwinter and annual survival probabilities. Results of overwinter analyses necessarily are qualified by the alternative explanation of mass-dependent emigration, i.e. the possibility that lighter birds move south in response to cold weather and leave only heavy birds for recapture. Such a phenomenon remains to be documented. Results concerning annual survival probabilities are not vulnerable to this alternative explanation because of the strong fidelity of Canvasbacks at the banding site. Because of small sample size, data were inadequate to permit mass/survival inferences for adult females. Sample sizes were adequate for young Canvasbacks, but the results were less consistent than for adult males. Although early-winter body mass was associated positively with overwinter as well as annual survival for young Canvasbacks in some years, we suspect that the lack of established wintering patterns among these birds may underlie the less consistent result.

Maryland↗
USGS1986

Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

Biometrics↗
USGS1986

Effects of liberalized harvest regulations on wood ducks in the Atlantic Flyway

Beginning in 1977the FWS provided southern Atlantic Flyway states the opportunity to liberalize wood duck harvest regulations. Harvest subsequently increased throughout the flyway but appeared to be more a function of population growth than changes in regulations. In the South, harvest rate increased only slightly for young males and no decline in average survival was detected. We found no evidence of increased harvest pressure on nontarget northern populations. We concluded that liberalized regulations provided increased hunting opportunities in southern states without adversely impacting northern populations.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS1985

Goodness-of-fit tests for open capture-recapture models

General goodness-of-fit tests for the Jolly-Seber model are proposed. These tests are based on conditional arguments using minimal sufficient statistics. The tests are shown to be of simple hypergeometric form so that a series of independent contingency table chi-square tests can be performed. The relationship of these tests to other proposed tests is discussed. This is followed by a simulation study of the power of the tests to detect departures from the assumptions of the Jolly-Seber model. Some meadow vole capture-recapture data are used to illustrate the testing procedure which has been implemented in a computer program available from the authors.

Biometrics↗
USGS1984

Observer visitation frequency and success of mourning dove nests: A field experiment

Field studies of nesting success generally require visits by the investigator to the nests under study. Such visits may themselves influence nesting success, however, and this possibility has been discussed and investigated by a number of workers with a variety of bird species. Livezey (1980) reviewed the relevant literature for duck nests and noted that most studies failed to demonstrate differences in nesting success between visited nests and those not visited. Livezey (1980) found in his own work that nest abandonment may have occurred as a result of disturbance by observers but that nest predation was not related to time spent by observers at nests or number of observers approaching nests. Various components of nesting and breeding success in seabirds are thought to be adversely affected by human disturbance and nest visitation (Gillett et al. 1975, Robert and Ralph 1975, Ollason and Dunnet 1980). Upland, ground-nesting species have also been studied (e.g. Stoddard 1931, Evans and Wolfe 1967, Henry 1969, Roseberry and Klimstra 1970, Klimstra and Roseberry 1975), and, although conclusions have varied, a number of these workers found no effect of observers on nest-predation rates.

The Auk↗
USGS1984

The use of auxiliary variables in capture-recapture and removal experiments

The dependence of animal capture probabilities on auxiliary variables is an important practical problem which has not been considered in the development of estimation procedures for capture-recapture and removal experiments. In this paper the linear logistic binary regression model is used to relate the probability of capture to continuous auxiliary variables. The auxiliary variables could be environmental quantities such as air or water temperature, or characteristics of individual animals, such as body length or weight. Maximum likelihood estimators of the population parameters are considered for a variety of models which all assume a closed population. Testing between models is also considered. The models can also be used when one auxiliary variable is a measure of the effort expended in obtaining the sample.

Biometrics↗
USGS1956

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

Summary and Recommendations: We suggest that managers are approaching the limits of their ability to improve waterfowl harvest management, primarily because the information needed to make better decisions is being sacrificed by the current approach to setting regulations. We propose an actively adaptive management strategy in which regulatory decisions play a dominant role in reducing uncertainty about population dynamics. The proposed strategy recognizes 'value' in acquiring knowledge only to the extent that it contributes to the objective of optimizing harvests. To implement this strategy, managers will need: (1) a set of regulatory options, with possible constraints on their use; (2) quantifiable harvest management objectives; (3) a set of models that represent an array of meaningful hypotheses about the effects of regulations on populations; and (4) a measure of credibility (or likelihood) for each model, which can be updated regularly using information from waterfowl monitoring programs. Adaptive optimization is an iterative process in which the harvest-management policy converges over time to one that maximizes harvest under the most appropriate model. At each time step, an optimal regulatory decision is identified based on the state of the system and the model likelihoods. In the next time step, predicted population changes from the alternative models are compared with the actual changes provided by the monitoring program, The likelihoods are increased or decreased to the extent that predicted and actual population changes correspond. These updated likelihoods then are used in setting regulations in the next cycle and the process begins again. This iterative process produces the most informative regulations when uncertainty is prevalent and produces maximum sustainable yields as uncertainty is eliminated. We see no major obstacles to implementing this adaptive strategy, although there are a number of practical considerations. First and foremost, managers should assess the 'value' of learning. Only when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of hunting regulations on population dynamics will the merit of our proposed strategy be evident. We suggest that this almost always will be true given our current understanding of the relationship between annual regulations, survival and population growth in waterfowl. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to formulating the set of alternative models. There is no value in distinguishing between models which differ in their mathematical formulation or biological realism, but which suggest similar harvest strategies. We suspect that 'mechanistic' models (i.e., those that attempt to capture the essence of biological processes) will make better candidates for model sets than so-called 'phenomenological' models. Assuming that all model sets include a good approximation of reality, learning rates will be dependent on the quality of monitoring programs. Fortunately, a variety of high-quality monitoring plans for many duck and goose populations of North America, when used with our adaptive approach, should provide new knowledge about population dynamics and response to hunting, and, thus, lead to improved management.

Audubon Field Notes↗