Search USGS⌕ Search

Geology topics

J.D. Nichols

Publications and source records attributed to J.D. Nichols.

At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS1993

The 'robust' capture-recapture design allows components of recruitment to be estimated

The 'robust' capture-recapture design (Pollock 1982) allows analyses which combine features of closed population model analyses (Otis et aI., 1978, White et aI., 1982) and open population model analyses (Pollock et aI., 1990). Estimators obtained under these analyses are more robust to unequal catch ability than traditional Jolly-Seber estimators (Pollock, 1982; Pollock et al., 1990; Kendall, 1992). The robust design also allows estimation of parameters for population size, survival rate and recruitment numbers for all periods of the study unlike under Jolly-Seber type models. The major advantage of this design that we emphasize in this short review paper is that it allows separate estimation of immigration and in situ recruitment numbers for a two or more age class model (Nichols and Pollock, 1990). This is contrasted with the age-dependent Jolly-Seber model (Pollock, 1981; Stokes, 1984; Pollock et L, 1990) which provides separate estimates for immigration and in situ recruitment for all but the first two age classes where there is at least a three age class model. The ability to achieve this separation of recruitment components can be very important to population modelers and wildlife managers as many species can only be separated into two easily identified age classes in the field.

Book chapter↗
USGS1992

The relationship between annual survival rate and migration distance in mallards: An examination of the time-allocation hypothesis for the evolution of migration

Predictions of the time-allocation hypothesis were tested with several a posteriori analyses of banding data for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). The time-allocation hypothesis states that the critical difference between resident and migrant birds is their allocation of time to reproduction on the breeding grounds and survival on the nonbreeding grounds. Residents have higher reproduction and migrants have higher survival. Survival and recovery rates were estimated by standard band-recovery methods for banding reference areas in the central United States and central Canada. A production-rate index was computed for each reference area with data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service May Breeding Population Survey and July Production Survey. An analysis of covariance was used to test for the effects of migration distance and time period (decade) on survival, recovery, and production rates. Differences in migration chronology were tested by comparing direct-recovery distributions for different populations during the fall migration. Differences in winter locations were tested by comparing distributions of direct recoveries reported during December and January. A strong positive relationship was found between survival rate, and migration distance for 3 of the 4 age and sex classes. A weak negative relationship was found between recovery rate and migration distance. No relationship was found between production rate and migration distance. During the fall migration, birds from the northern breeding populations were located north of birds from the southern breeding populations. No pattern could be found in the relative locations of breeding and wintering areas. Although our finding that survival rate increased with migration distance was consistent with the time-allocation hypothesis, our results on migration chronology and location of wintering areas were not consistent with the mechanism underlying the time-allocation hypothesis. Neither this analysis nor other recent studies of life-history characteristics of migratory and resident birds supported the timeallocation hypothesis.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗
USGS1992

A stochastic population model of mid-continental mallards

We developed a simulation model that integrates infonnation on factors affecting the population dynamics of mallards in the mid-continental region of the United States. In the model we vary age, body mass, and reproductive and molt status of simulated females. Females use several types of nesting and foraging habitat in 15 geographic areas. Deterministic and stochastic events cause mortality or attribute changes on a daily basis, depending on current attributes, habitat, area, calendar date, wetland conditions, temperature, and various mortality agents. Because the model encompasses the entire year, it can be used to examine cross-seasonal effects. A simulated increase in nest success from 0.14 to 0.17 changed the annual rate of population growth from -6% to -1 %. A simulated 75% reduction in lead poisoning changed the rate from -6% to -3%.

Book chapter↗
USGS1991

Population dynamics of American dog ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) along park trails

We conducted a mark–recapture study in which drag-collected ticks were removed from some park trails weekly from April to July. Weekly survival rates (probability of surviving and remaining on the trails) were significantly lower on trails used heavily by hikers, horses, and pets than on trails used less frequently. Although usage was the only obvious difference among these trails, differences in weekly survival rate estimates may be attributable to differential success in acquiring hosts. The estimated probability of capturing a host-seeking tick located along a trail on a single drag was 0.20 on the drag alone, and 0.25 including the person dragging. When routes parallel to the trails and of equal lengths were dragged immediately after sampling the trails, only ≍5% as many ticks (including ticks on the person dragging) were found off the trails as on them. We found no evidence of reduced tick numbers on removal trails, but this result should be considered inconclusive because the power of the discerning test was low. However, the data reported here provide insights into turnover rates of the adult Dermacentor variabilis population and effectiveness of the drag as a sampling device.

Environmental Entomology↗
USGS1991

Estimates of movement and site fidelity using mark-resight data of wintering Canada geese

Population ecologists have devoted disproportionate attention to the estimation and study of birth and death rates and far less effort to rates of movement. Movement and fidelity to wintering areas have important ecological and evolutionary implications for avian populations. Previous inferences about movement among and fidelity to wintering areas have been restricted by limitations of data and methodology. We use multiple observation data from a large-scale capture-resighting study of Canada Geese in the Atlantic flyway to estimate probabilities of returning to previous wintering locations and moving to new locations. Mark-resight data from 28,849 Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) banded woth individually coded neck bands in the mid-Atlantic (New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey), Chesapeake (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia), and Carolinas (North and South Carolina) were used to estimate movement and site-fidelity. Two three-sample mark-resight models were developed and programmed using SURVIV to estimate the probability of moving among or remaining within these three wintering regions. The model (MV2) that incorporated tradition' or memory of previous wintering regions fit the data better than the model (MV1) that assumes that a first-order Markov chain described movement among regions. Considerable levels of movement occurred among regions of the Atlantic flyway. The annual probability of remaining in the same region for two successive winters, used as a measure of site fidelity, was 0.710 plus or minus 0.016 (estimated mean plus or minus SE, 0.889 plus or minus 0.006, and 0.562 plus or minus 0.025, for the mid-Atlantic, Chesapeake, and Carolinas, respectively. The estimated probability of moving between years corresponded to changes in winter harshness. In warm years, geese moved north and in cold years, they moved south. Geese had a high probability of moving to and remaining in the Chesapeake. Annual changes in the movement probabilities did not correspond to annual changes in the United States Fish and Wildlife midwinter survey. Considerable numbers of geese from the Carolinas appeared to be wintering in more northerly locations (short-stopped) in subsequent winters.

Ecology↗
USGS1990

Small mammal populations at hazardous waste disposal sites near Houston, Texas, USA

Small mammals were trapped, tagged and recaptured in 0?45 ha plots at six hazardous industrial waste disposal sites to determine if populations, body mass and age structures were different from paired control site plots. Low numbers of six species of small mammals were captured on industrial waste sites or control sites. Only populations of hispid cotton rats at industrial waste sites and control sites were large enough for comparisons. Overall population numbers, age structure, and body mass of adult male and female cotton rats were similar at industrial waste sites and control sites. Populations of small mammals (particularly hispid cotton rats) may not suffice as indicators of environments with hazardous industrial waste contamination.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS1990

Temporal and spatial variation in survival rates of the tropical lizard Anolis limifrons

We evaluated survival of the lizard, Anolis limifrons at two sites, AVA and Lutz, from 1976-1979 and during two periods at Lutz site, 1971-1976 vs 1976-1979, at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Survival of adult females and males did not differ nor did survival of juveniles and adults. In contrast, survival was significantly higher at Lutz site during 1971-1976 than during 1976-1979 and survival was significantly higher at AVA than at Lutz site during 1976-1979. On an annual basis, mean survival rates were 0.042,0.013,0.055 for Lutz 1971-1976, Lutz 1976-1979, and AVA 1976-1979, respectively. These rates are in accord with reports of annual population turnover for this and other small mainland Anolis. Temporal and spatial variation in survival was not associated with habitat, season, year of observation, or numbers and abundances of avian predators. Survival patterns of mainland Anolis are contrasted with those of West Indian species in terms of life history evolution.

Barro Colorado Island↗
USGS1990

American woodcock winter distribution and fidelity to wintering areas

We examined winter distribution and fidelity to wintering areas for the American Woodcock ( Scolopax minor ), which exhibits reversed, sexual size dimorphism. Band-recovery data revealed no difference in winter distributions of different age/sex classes for woodcock from the same breeding ares. Similarly, band recoveries from woodcock banded on wintering grounds revealed no difference in fidelity to wintering sites. Males may winter north of a latitude that is optimal for survival based on physiological considerations, but they gain a reproductive advantage if they are among the first to arrive on the breeding grounds. This may explain our results, which indicate males and females have similar distribution patterns during winter.

The Auk↗
USGS1990

Capture-recapture estimation of prebreeding survival rate for birds exhibiting delayed maturation

Many species of seabirds exhibit delayed maturity and do not return to the natal colony to breed for several years after fledging. Capture-recapture studies are frequently conducted at such breeding colonies and often include marking of young birds. However, because of the absence of these birds from the natal colony during the first few years after banding, the data do not fit neatly into existing capture-recapture models. Here we present a method for estimating prebreeding survival rate from capture-recapture studies on species exhibiting such patterns of delayed maturation. We illustrate the method using data from a capture-recapture study of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii ) on Falkner Island, Connecticut. The method appears to work well and emphasizes the potential to tailor capture-recapture models to specific field situations.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗
USGS1989

Model-based estimates of annual survival rate are preferable to observed maximum lifespan statistics for use in comparative life-history studies

Estimates of longevity are available for many animals, and are commonly used in comparative life-history analyses. We suggest that annual survival rate is a more appropriate life history parameter for most comparative life history analyses. Observed maximum lifespans estimate complicated functions of survival and sampling probabilities. Annual survival rate estimates derived from modern band-recovery statistical procedures are becoming available for a variety of organisms. We compiled annual survival rate estimates and observed maximum longevities derived from band recovery data for North American waterfowl. Observed maximum longevities were not correlated with the annual survival rate estimates and appear to be unstable over time. We recommend that observed maximum lifespans not be used in life history analyses.

Oikos↗