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J. W. Godt

Publications and source records attributed to J. W. Godt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2013

Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probablistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are deterministic. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the existing models is the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of shallow rainfall-induced landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a stochastic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, i.e. the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas, respectively. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

Geoscientific Model Development and Discussions↗
USGS2011

Direction of unsaturated flow in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope

The distribution of soil moisture in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope is a transient, variably saturated physical process controlled by rainfall characteristics, hillslope geometry, and the hydrological properties of the hillslope materials. The major driving mechanisms for moisture movement are gravity and gradients in matric potential. The latter is solely controlled by gradients of moisture content. In a homogeneous and isotropic saturated hillslope, absent a gradient in moisture content and under the driving force of gravity with a constant pressure boundary at the slope surface, flow is always in the lateral downslope direction, under either transient or steady state conditions. However, under variably saturated conditions, both gravity and moisture content gradients drive fluid motion, leading to complex flow patterns. In general, the flow field near the ground surface is variably saturated and transient, and the direction of flow could be laterally downslope, laterally upslope, or vertically downward. Previous work has suggested that prevailing rainfall conditions are sufficient to completely control these flow regimes. This work, however, shows that under time-varying rainfall conditions, vertical, downslope, and upslope lateral flow can concurrently occur at different depths and locations within the hillslope. More importantly, we show that the state of wetting or drying in a hillslope defines the temporal and spatial regimes of flow and when and where laterally downslope and/or laterally upslope flow occurs.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2008

Investigation and hazard assessment of the 2003 and 2007 Staircase Falls rock falls, Yosemite National Park, California, USA

Since 1857 more than 600 rock falls, rock slides, debris slides, and debris flows have been documented in Yosemite National Park, with rock falls in Yosemite Valley representing the majority of the events. On 26 December 2003, a rock fall originating from west of Glacier Point sent approximately 200 m 3 of rock debris down a series of joint-controlled ledges to the floor of Yosemite Valley. The debris impacted talus near the base of Staircase Falls, producing fragments of flying rock that struck occupied cabins in Curry Village. Several years later on 9 June 2007, and again on 26 July 2007, smaller rock falls originated from the same source area. The 26 December 2003 event coincided with a severe winter storm and was likely triggered by precipitation and/or frost wedging, but the 9 June and 26 July 2007 events lack recognizable triggering mechanisms. We investigated the geologic and hydrologic factors contributing to the Staircase Falls rock falls, including bedrock lithology, weathering, joint spacing and orientations, and hydrologic processes affecting slope stability. We improved upon previous geomorphic assessment of rock-fall hazards, based on a shadow angle approach, by using STONE, a three-dimensional rock-fall simulation computer program. STONE produced simulated rock-fall runout patterns similar to the mapped extent of the 2003 and 2007 events, allowing us to simulate potential future rock falls from the Staircase Falls detachment area. Observations of recent rock falls, mapping of rock debris, and simulations of rock fall runouts beneath the Staircase Falls detachment area suggest that rock-fall hazard zones extend farther downslope than the extent previously defined by mapped surface talus deposits.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2008

Ferguson rock slide buries California State Highway near Yosemite National Park

During spring 2006, talus from the toe area of a rock-block slide of about 800,000 m3 buried California State Highway 140, one of the main routes into heavily-visited Yosemite National Park, USA. Closure of the highway for 92 days caused business losses of about 4.8 million USD. The rock slide, composed of slate and phyllite, moved slowly downslope from April to June 2006, creating a fresh head scarp with 9-12 m of displacement. Movement of the main rock slide, a re-activation of an older slide, was triggered by an exceptionally wet spring 2006, following a very wet spring 2005. As of autumn 2006, most of the main slide appeared to be at rest, although rocks occasionally continued to fall from steep, fractured rock masses at the toe area of the slide. Future behavior of the slide is difficult to predict, but possible scenarios range from continued scattered rock fall to complete rapid failure of the entire mass. Although unlikely except under very destabilizing circumstances, a worst-case, rapid failure of the entire rock slide could extend across the Merced River, damming the river and creating a reservoir. As a temporary measure, traffic has been rerouted to the opposite side of the Merced River at about the same elevation as the buried section of Highway 140. A state-of-the-art monitoring system has been installed to detect movement in the steep talus slope, movement of the main slide mass, local strong ground motion from regional earthquakes, and sudden changes in stream levels, possibly indicating damming of the river by slide material. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

Landslides↗
USGS2007

Modeling the spatial distribution of landslide-prone colluvium and shallow groundwater on hillslopes of Seattle, WA

Landslides in partially saturated colluvium on Seattle, WA, hillslopes have resulted in property damage and human casualties. We developed statistical models of colluvium and shallow-groundwater distributions to aid landslide hazard assessments. The models were developed using a geographic information system, digital geologic maps, digital topography, subsurface exploration results, the groundwater flow modeling software VS2DI and regression analyses. Input to the colluvium model includes slope, distance to a hillslope-crest escarpment, and escarpment slope and height. We developed different statistical relations for thickness of colluvium on four landforms. Groundwater model input includes colluvium basal slope and distance from the Fraser aquifer. This distance was used to estimate hydraulic conductivity based on the assumption that addition of finer-grained material from down-section would result in lower conductivity. Colluvial groundwater is perched so we estimated its saturated thickness. We used VS2DI to establish relations between saturated thickness and the hydraulic conductivity and basal slope of the colluvium. We developed different statistical relations for three groundwater flow regimes. All model results were validated using observational data that were excluded from calibration. Eighty percent of colluvium thickness predictions were within 25% of observed values and 88% of saturated thickness predictions were within 20% of observed values. The models are based on conditions common to many areas, so our method can provide accurate results for similar regions; relations in our statistical models require calibration for new regions. Our results suggest that Seattle landslides occur in native deposits and colluvium, ultimately in response to surface-water erosion of hillstope toes. Regional groundwater conditions do not appear to strongly affect the general distribution of Seattle landslides; historical landslides were equally dispersed within and outside of the area potentially affected by regional groundwater conditions.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS2006

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

Landslides↗
USGS2006

Drainage effects on the transient, near-surface hydrologic response of a steep hillslope to rainfall: Implications for slope stability, Edmonds, Washington, USA

Shallow landslides on steep (>25??) hillsides along Puget Sound have resulted in occasional loss of life and costly damage to property during intense or prolonged rainfall. As part of a larger project to assess landslide hazards in the Seattle area, the U.S. Geological Survey instrumented two coastal bluff sites in 2001 to observe the subsurface hydrologic response to rainfall. The instrumentation at one of these sites, near Edmonds, Washington, consists of two rain gauges, two water-content probes that measure volumetric water content at eight depths between 0.2 and 2.0 m, and two tensiometer nests that measure soil-water suction at six depths ranging from 0.2 to 1.5m. Measurements from these instruments are used to test one- and two-dimensional numerical models of infiltration and groundwater flow. Capillary-rise tests, performed in the laboratory on soil sample from the Edmonds site, are used to define the soil hydraulic properties for the wetting process. The field observations of water content and suction show an apparent effect of porosity variation with depth on the hydraulic response to rainfall. Using a range of physical properties consistent with our laboratory and field measurements, we perform sensitivity analyses to investigate the effects of variation in physical and hydraulic properties of the soil on rainfall infiltration, pore-pressure response, and, hence, slope stability. For a two-layer-system in which the hydraulic conductivity of the upper layer is at least 10 times greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, and the infiltration rate is greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, a perched water table forms above the layer boundary potentially destabilizing the upper layer of soil. Two-dimensional modeling results indicate that the addition of a simple trench drain to the same two-layer slope has differing effects on the hydraulic response depending on the initial pressure head conditions. For slope-parallel flow conditions, pressure head is significantly reduced near the drain; however, for transient, vertical infiltration in a partially saturated soil, conditions consistent with those observed during monitoring at the Edmonds site, the drain decreases the thickness of a perched water table by a small amount.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2005

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.

Landslides↗
USGS2005

Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA

Shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area, has caused the occasional loss of human life and millions of dollars in damage to property. The effective management of the hazzard requires an understanding of the rainfall conditions that result in landslides. We present an empirical approach to quantify the antecedent moisture conditions and rainstorm intensity and duration that have triggered shallow landsliding using 25 years of hourly rainfull data and a complementary record of landslide occurrence. Our approach combines a simple water balance to estimate the antecedent moisture conditions of hillslope materials and a rainfall intensity-duration threshold to identify periods when shallow landsliding can be expected. The water balance is calibrated with field-monitoring data and combined with the rainfall intensity-duration threshold using a decision tree. Results are cast in terms of a hypothetical landslide warning system. Two widespread landslide events are correctly identified by the warning scheme; however, it is less accurate for more isolated landsliding. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS2003

Seasonal movement of the Slumgullion landslide determined from global positioning system surveys and field instrumentation, July 1998-March 2002

Measurements of landslide movement made by global positioning system surveys and extensometers over a 3.5-year period show that the Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado moved throughout the monitoring period, but that daily velocities varied on a seasonal basis. Landslide velocities peaked in the early spring and summer in response to snowmelt and summer thunderstorms, respectively. Velocities were slowest in mid-winter when air and soil temperatures were coldest and precipitation was generally low and/or in the form of snow with a low water content. We hypothesize that the seasonal variability in velocities is due to ground-water levels and corresponding pore pressures that decrease when surface water is unavailable or cannot infiltrate frozen landslide material, and increase when surface water from melting snow or rainfall infiltrates unfrozen landslide material. We also suggest that patches of bouldery debris and fractures (created by continuous movement of the landslide) are conduits through which surface water can infiltrate, regardless of the frozen or unfrozen state of the landslide matrix material. Therefore, the availability of surface water is more important than landslide temperature in controlling the rate of landslide movement. This hypothesis is supported by field instrumentation data that show (1) landslide velocities coinciding with precipitation amounts regardless of the depth of freezing of landslide material, (2) spring and annual landslide velocities that were greatest when the depth of freezing was also the greatest, and (3) a rapid (several weeks or less) velocity and pore pressure response to rainfall. The persistent, but seasonally variable movement of the landslide, fits the bathtub model for landslide movement described by Baum and Reid [Baum, R.L., Reid, M.E., 2000. Ground water isolation by low-permeability clays in landslide shear zones. In: Bromhead, E.N., Dixon, N., Ibsen, M.-L. (Eds.), Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice. Proc. 8th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Cardiff, Wales, vol. 1, 139-144]. In their model, the landslide is isolated both mechanically and hydrologically from adjacent materials by low permeability clays. These clays cause the landslide to retain water. Our data support this model by suggesting that pore pressures at the basal landslide surface are always adequate to maintain landslide movement and that any infiltration of water at the surface of the landslide is adequate to rapidly increase landslide velocity. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗
USGS2003

Remote sensing of rainfall for debris-flow hazard assessment

Recent advances in remote sensing of rainfall provide more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Four case studies of abundant debris flows over relatively small areas triggered during intense rainstorms are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. Three examples with rainfall estimates from National Weather Service Doppler radar and one example with rainfall estimates from infrared imagery from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite are compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and with landslide distribution. The advantages and limitations of using remote sensing of rainfall for landslide hazard analysis are discussed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2003

A model for spatially and temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall infiltration

We describe a model for regional initiation of shallow landslides based on an approximate analytic solution to Richards equation combined with an infinite-slope calculation. The model applied over digital topography computes pressure heads and factors of safety as functions of depth for geographic information system (GIS) grid cells at any time during and after rainfall events. An example is presented that simulates the progressive development of shallow landslides on steep slopes during a rainfall event. This example shows how this modeling provides insights into transient rainfall-caused processes that trigger shallow slope instability and consequent regionally distributed debris-flow events. Specifically, we infer that the spatial pattern of instability is primarily controlled by topography, while intensity and duration of rainfall, and the subsequent pore-pressure responses control the temporal pattern of instability. ?? 2003 Millpress.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2001

Debris flows triggered by the El Nino rainstorm of February 2-3, 1998, Walpert Ridge and vicinity, Alameda County, California

On February 2 and 3, 1998, a rainstorm generated by the 1997-98 El Nino moved through the San Francisco Bay region of California triggering widespread slope failures. In the Walpert Ridge area of Alameda County 531 debris flows were triggered by the storm. These data depict the debris flows and landslides as polygons. The landslide polygons were mapped from 1:30,000 aerial photography using a PG2 photogrammetric plotter. The mapped debris flows and landslides were digitized manually in ArcInfo.

California↗
USGS2000

Measurement of ridge-spreading movements (Sackungen) at Bald Eagle Mountain, Lake County, Colorado, II: Continuation of the 1975-1989 measurements using a Global Positioning System in 1997 and 1999

Measurements of ridge-spreading movements at Bald Eagle Mountain in north-central Colorado were reported in USGS Open-File Report 90-543 for the years 1975-1989. Measurements were renewed in 1997 and 1999 using the Global Positioning System (GPS). Movements are generally away from a ridge-top graben and appear to be concentrated along 3 or 4 trenches with uphill facing scarps that are parallel with slope contours. A point just below the lowest trench has moved the most? a total of 8.3 cm horizontally and slightly downward from 1977 to 1999 relative to an assumed stable point on the periphery of the graben. Movements from 1997 to 1999 are less than 1 cm or within the error of measurement.

Colorado↗
USGS1999

Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Alameda County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. In Alameda County more than $20 million in damages were assessed. Debris flows occurred in rural portions of the county, but were only responsible for $400 thousand in damages.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗