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J. R. Ward

Publications and source records attributed to J. R. Ward.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota

Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

Science

Evaluation of agricultural best-management practices in the Conestoga River headwaters, Pennsylvania: Characterization of surface-runoff and ground-water quantity and quality in a small carbonate basin near Churchtown, Pennsylvania, prior to terracing and implementation of nutrient management: Water-quality study of the Conestoga River headwaters, Pennsylvania

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection1 , conducted a study as part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Rural Clean Water Program to determine the effects of agricultural best-management practices on surface-water and ground-water quality in the Conestoga River headwaters basin. This report describes Field-Site 1 and characterizes the surface-runoff and ground-water quantity and quality at the site from January 1983 through September 1984, before the implementation of terracing and nutrient-management best-management practices. The 22.1-acre site, part of two dairy farms, was cropland used primarily for the production of corn and alfalfa, and is underlain by carbonate rock. During the 21-month study period, 91.2 inches of precipitation fell, of which 66 percent occurred during the 1984 water year. Of the 169 storms of 0.10 inch or larger, 97 produced measurable runoff. The average annual application of nutrients to the 14.4 acres of cornfields was 410 pounds per acre of nitrogen and 110 pounds per acre of phosphorus. About three times more nutrients were applied during 1984 water year than during the 1983 water year. The approximate soil-nitrate concentration as nitrogen for the study period was 8.2 milligrams per kilogram in the top 8 inches of soil. Runoff for the study period totalled 714,000 cubic feet, or 9.8 percent of total precipitation. Eighty-eight percent of the runoff occurred during the 1984 water year. Regression analyses indicate that total runoff was controlled primarily by total precipitation amounts during storms and by antecedent moisture conditions; mean event and maximum instantaneous discharges are controlled by precipitation intensity and by antecedent moisture conditions. Regression analyses also suggest that crop cover on the corn acreage affected runoff amounts and rates. Mean concentrations in runoff ranged from 24 to 73,000 milligrams per liter for suspended sediment, 0.45 to 24 milligrams per liter for total phosphorus, and 1.5 to 55 milligrams per liter for total nitrogen. Of the total nitrogen in instantaneous runoff samples, a median of 72 percent was total organic nitrogen. Results of multiple regression analyses suggest that mean nitrogen concentrations in runoff (1) increased with increased surface-nitrogen applications made prior to runoff, and (2) were diluted with increased precipitation duration. Runoff from storms on frozen ground produced the highest loads of nitrogen in runoff. Over the 21-month study period, an estimated 258 tons of suspended sediment, 314 pounds of nitrogen, and 176 pounds of phosphorus were transported with runoff from the site. Of this, 88 percent of the nitrogen and phosphorus loads and 94 percent of the suspended-sediment load were discharged during the wet 1984 water year. The loads for the study period represent 2.5 percent of the total nitrogen and 5.5 percent of the total phosphorus applied to the site as manure and commercial fertilizer. The ground-water basin at the site is slightly larger than the surface-water basin. Ground-water levels, except at one well, responded quickly to recharge; water levels peaked several hours to a day after precipitation. Surface-applied materials moved rapidly to the water table through macropores and slowly by transport through micropores in the unsaturated zone. Median concentrations of dissolved nitrate ranged from 9.2 to 13 milligrams per liter as nitrogen for ground-water samples collected monthly from five wells and a spring. Dissolved nitrate comprised 93 percent (median percentage) of the total nitrogen in ground-water samples. The effect of recharge on ground-water nitrate concentrations was affected by variations in nutrient availability at the land surface and in the unsaturated zone. A lag time of 1 to 3 months was observed between the time that nitrogen was applied to the land surface and local maximums in nitrate concentrations were detected in ground water unaffected by recharge events. Approximately 3,187,000 cubic feet of ground water and an associated 2,200 pounds of nitrate-nitrogen discharged from the site during the study period. For the study period, 42 percent of the precipitation recharged to ground water, 10 percent became runoff, and 48 percent evapotranspired. Inputs of nitrogen to the study area were estimated to be 93 percent from manure, 5 percent from commercial fertilizer, and 2 percent from precipitation. Nitrogen outputs from the system were estimated to be 38 percent to crop uptake, 39 percent to volatilization, 20 percent to ground-water discharge, and 3 percent to surface runoff.

Pennsylvania

Surface-water quality in Pequea Creek basin, Pennsylvania, 1977-79

A study of the Pequea Creek basin was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and the EPA from February 1977 through March 1979. Pequea Creek drains an intensive agricultural area of 154 sq mi in southeastern Pennsylvania, and enters the Susquehanna River 30 mi north of the Chesapeake Bay. The study included measurement of streamflow and collection of water and bottom material samples from seven sites in the basin during selected base flows and storms. Water samples were collected daily at a site near the mouth of Pequea Creek, and analyzed for suspended sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus species, organic carbon, and pesticides. Some groundwater samples also were collected and analyzed for nitrate. Annual yields measured from the basin during the study period were 1,950 ton/sq mi for suspended sediment, 13.8 ton/sq mi for total nitrogen, and 1.8 ton/sq mi for phosphorus. These yields are five times higher than any previously measured in the Susquehanna River basin. The discharges of all constituents monitored increased with increasing flow, indicated that a large amount of material in the basin is available for transport to streams during storms. The large yields of nitrogen and phosphorus are probably caused by the intensive agriculture in the basin coupled with large applications of fertilizer and manure to farm fields. Chemical analyses of rainfall samples indicate that precipitation was not a significant source of nitrogen and phosphorus. Excluding nitrate, all constituents measured were transported mainly during storms. Nitrate concentrations during base flow were as high as 10 mg/L as N--the Environmental Protection Agency standard for domestic water supplies. Groundwater sampled from farm wells had nitrate concentrations up to 28 mg/L as N. The largest concentrations of herbicides detected in Pequea basin were for 2,4-D, atrazine, and simazine. The maximum concentrations observed during storms were 1.2, 24, and 5.4 micrograms/L, respectively. The insecticides chlordane and DDT had mean concentrations of 0.02 and 0.01 micrograms/L, respectively. Lindane, PCB, and heptachlor slightly exceed maximum limits during storms.

Pennsylvania

Calculating sediment discharge from a highway construction site in central Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, the Federal Highway Administration, and the U.S. Geological Survey have cooperated in a study to evaluate two methods of predicting sediment yields during highway construction. Sediment yields were calculated using the Universal Soil Loss and the Younkin Sediment Prediction Equations. Results were compared to the actual measured values, and standard errors and coefficients of correlation were calculated. Sediment discharge from the construction area was determined for storms that occurred during construction of Interstate 81 in a 0.38-square mile basin near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Precipitation data tabulated included total rainfall, maximum 30-minute rainfall, kinetic energy, and the erosive index of the precipitation. Highway construction data tabulated included the area disturbed by clearing and grubbing, the area in cuts and fills, the average depths of cuts and fills, the area seeded and mulched, and the area paved. Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation, sediment discharge from the construction area was calculated for storms. The standard error of estimate was 0.40 (about 105 percent), and the coefficient of correlation was 0.79. Sediment discharge from the construction area was also calculated using the Younkin Equation. The standard error of estimate of 0.42 (about 110 percent), and the coefficient of correlation of 0.77 are comparable to those from the Universal Soil Loss Equation.

Water-Resources Investigations Report