Geology topics

J. Fieberg

Publications and source records attributed to J. Fieberg.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

MMI: Multimodel inference or models with management implications?

We consider a variety of regression modeling strategies for analyzing observational data associated with typical wildlife studies, including all subsets and stepwise regression, a single full model, and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC)-based multimodel inference. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, we suggest that there is no unique best way to analyze data. Further, we argue that, although multimodel inference can be useful in natural resource management, the importance of considering causality and accurately estimating effect sizes is greater than simply considering a variety of models. Determining causation is far more valuable than simply indicating how the response variable and explanatory variables covaried within a data set, especially when the data set did not arise from a controlled experiment. Understanding the causal mechanism will provide much better predictions beyond the range of data observed. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Hunter perceptions and acceptance of alternative deer management regulations

Wildlife managers are often confronted with a policy paradox where a majority of the public supports an outcome, but there is no agreement on specific management strategies to achieve this outcome. Previous research has also reported a link between regulatory acceptance, hunter satisfaction, and hunter participation rates. Thus, human dimensions research aimed at understanding hunter motivations and behavior is needed for effective management. In 2005, we surveyed Minnesota (USA) deer hunters ( n = 6,000; 59% response) to evaluate attitudes regarding alternative deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) harvest regulations. We also conducted a series of forced choice experiments in which respondents were asked to select an option from a list of representative regulations that might be adopted to achieve a particular deer management goal. Specifically, we modeled 5 deer population scenarios ranging from low populations with high buck‐harvest rates to populations 50% over goal density. Our results indicate that hunters preferred different regulations depending on the population scenario, but generally preferred antler‐point restrictions and disliked limiting buck licenses through a lottery. We also found consistency among scenarios, in that a small percentage of respondents indicated they would not hunt if regulations were changed. The results from this study should help wildlife managers design deer harvest regulations that are both acceptable to hunters and achieve management objectives

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2005

Assessing uncertainty in ecological systems using global sensitivity analyses: A case example of simulated wolf reintroduction effects on elk

Often landmark conservation decisions are made despite an incomplete knowledge of system behavior and inexact predictions of how complex ecosystems will respond to management actions. For example, predicting the feasibility and likely effects of restoring top-level carnivores such as the gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) to North American wilderness areas is hampered by incomplete knowledge of the predator-prey system processes and properties. In such cases, global sensitivity measures, such as Sobol’ indices, allow one to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on model predictions. Sobol’ indices are calculated by decomposing the variance in model predictions (due to parameter uncertainty) into main effects of model parameters and their higher order interactions. Model parameters with large sensitivity indices can then be identified for further study in order to improve predictive capabilities. Here, we illustrate the use of Sobol’ sensitivity indices to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty on the predicted decline of elk ( Cervus elaphus ) population sizes following a hypothetical reintroduction of wolves to Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. The strength of density dependence acting on survival of adult elk and magnitude of predation were the most influential factors controlling elk population size following a simulated wolf reintroduction. In particular, the form of density dependence in natural survival rates and the per-capita predation rate together accounted for over 90% of variation in simulated elk population trends. Additional research on wolf predation rates on elk and natural compensations in prey populations is needed to reliably predict the outcome of predator–prey system behavior following wolf reintroductions.

Ecological Modelling↗