Geology topics

J. Falcone

Publications and source records attributed to J. Falcone.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2009

Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also demonstrate how the models can be applied to predict expected natural flow characteristics at ungaged sites. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2008

Predicting the biological condition of streams: Use of geospatial indicators of natural and anthropogenic characteristics of watersheds

We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2008

Biological assessments of Appalachian streams based on predictive models for fish, macroinvertebrate, and diatom assemblages

We developed empirical models for fish, macroinvertebrate, and diatom assemblages to assess the biological condition of 268 streams sampled from 1993 to 2002 in 7 major river basins in the Appalachian region of the USA. These models estimate the expected taxonomic composition at each site based on observed variation in taxonomic composition at reference sites. The index, O/E, is the ratio of the number of predicted taxa that were observed (O) to that expected (E) to occur at a site and is a measure of taxonomic completeness. We compared how O/E for each assemblage varied among major landuse settings and whether impaired assemblages were associated with particular physicochemical conditions. We also examined concordance among assemblages in their response to stress. Biological, chemical, and physical data were collected following consistent protocols. We used land-cover criteria, published data, and topographic maps to classify sites by major landuse setting. Fish, macroinvertebrate, and diatom assemblages had been sampled at 73, 108, and 52, respectively, of the least disturbed sites used to establish reference conditions. The models accounted for a substantial portion of the natural variation in taxonomic composition across sites that was associated with biogeographic, climatic, and basin-scale factors and generally were unbiased across the range of environmental gradients observed in the region. Assessments at nonreference sites showed that impairment of fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages was most strongly associated with agriculture and urban land uses, whereas impairment of diatom assemblages was most strongly associated with mining in the basin. Concordance in assessments among assemblages was not strong. Assessments based on 2 assemblages differed in 28 to 57% of cases, and assessments were never concordant for cases where all 3 assemblages were sampled. Furthermore, only 1/2 of these cases would have been assessed as ecologically impaired had only 1 assemblage been sampled. Differences between observed and predicted frequencies of occurrence for individual taxa were generally consistent with known tolerances to environmental stressors and might aid in identifying causes of biological impairment. ?? 2008 by The North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗