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J. D. Bales

Publications and source records attributed to J. D. Bales.

16 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2009

Sources of uncertainty in flood inundation maps

Flood inundation maps typically have been used to depict inundated areas for floods having specific exceedance levels. The uncertainty associated with the inundation boundaries is seldom quantified, in part, because all of the sources of uncertainty are not recognized and because data available to quantify uncertainty seldom are available. Sources of uncertainty discussed in this paper include hydrologic data used for hydraulic model development and validation, topographic data, and the hydraulic model. The assumption of steady flow, which typically is made to produce inundation maps, has less of an effect on predicted inundation at lower flows than for higher flows because more time typically is required to inundate areas at high flows than at low flows. Difficulties with establishing reasonable cross sections that do not intersect and that represent water-surface slopes in tributaries contribute additional uncertainties in the hydraulic modelling. As a result, uncertainty in the flood inundation polygons simulated with a one-dimensional model increases with distance from the main channel.

Journal of Flood Risk Management↗
USGS2009

Relationship of stream ecological conditions to simulated hydraulic metrics across a gradient of basin urbanization

The relationships among urbanization, stream hydraulics, and aquatic biology were investigated across a gradient of urbanization in 30 small basins in eastern Wisconsin, USA. Simulation of hydraulic metrics with 1-dimensional unsteady flow models was an effective means for mechanistically coupling the effects of urbanization with stream ecological conditions (i.e., algae, invertebrates, and fish). Urbanization, characterized by household, road, and urban land density, was positively correlated with the lowest shear stress for 2 adjacent transects in a reach for the low-flow summer (p < 0.001) and autumn (p < 0.01) periods. Urbanization also was positively correlated with Reynolds number and % exposed stream bed during months with moderate to low flows. Our study demonstrated the value of temporally and spatially explicit hydraulic models for providing mechanistic insight into the relationships between hydraulic variables and biological responses. For example, the positive correlation between filter-feeding invertebrate richness and minimum 2-transect shear stress observed in our study is consistent with a higher concentration of water-column particulates available for filtration. The strength of correlations between hydraulic and biological metrics is related to the time period (annual, seasonal, or monthly) considered. The hydraulic modeling approach, whether based on hourly or daily flow data, allowed documentation of the effects of a spatially variable response within a reach, and the results suggest that stream response to urbanization varies with hydraulic habitat type. ?? North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗
USGS2007

Identification of changes in streamflow characteristics

A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long-term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55-year period of 1940-1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflows in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one-, seven-, and 30-day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985-194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970-1979, which represents the 10-year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985-1994.

North Carolina↗
USGS2007

Use of stage data to characterize hydrologic conditions in an urbanizing environment

This paper presents the results of a study on the use of continuous stage data to describe the relation between urban development and three aspects of hydrologic condition that are thought to influence stream ecosystems - overall stage variability, stream flashiness, and the duration of extreme- stage conditions . This relation is examined using data from more than 70 watersheds in three contrasting environmental settings - the humid Northeast (the metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, area); the very humid Southeast (the metropolitan Birmingham, Alabama, area); and the semiarid West (the metropolitan Salt Lake City, Utah, area). Results from the Birmingham and Boston studies provide evidence linking increased urbanization with stream flashiness. Fragmentation of developed land cover patches appears to ameliorate the effects of urbanization on overall variability and flashiness. There was less success in relating urbanization and streamflow conditions in the Salt Lake City study. A related investigation of six North Carolina sites with long term discharge and stage data indicated that hydrologic condition metrics developed using continuous stage data are comparable to flow based metrics, particularly for stream flashiness measures.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

Modeling pesticide fate in a small tidal estuary

The exposure analysis modeling system (EXAMS), a pesticide fate model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, was modified to model the fate of the herbicides atrazine and metolachlor in a small tidally dominated estuary (Bath Creek) in North Carolina, USA where freshwater inflow accounts for only 3% of the total flow. The modifications simulated the changes that occur during the tidal cycle in the estuary, scenarios that are not possible with the original EXAMS model. Two models were created within EXAMS, a steady-state model and a time-variant tidally driven model. The steady-state model accounted for tidal flushing by simply altering freshwater input to yield an estuary residence time equal to that measured in Bath Creek. The tidal EXAMS model explicitly incorporated tidal flushing by modifying the EXAMS code to allow for temporal changes in estuary physical attributes (e.g., volume). The models were validated with empirical measurements of atrazine and metolachlor concentrations in the estuary shortly after herbicide application in nearby fields and immediately following a rain event. Both models provided excellent agreement with measured concentrations. The steady-state EXAMS model accurately predicted atrazine concentrations in the middle of the estuary over the first 3 days and under-predicted metolachlor by a factor of 2-3. The time-variant, tidally driven EXAMS model accurately predicted the rise and plateau of both herbicides over the 6-day measurement period. We have demonstrated the ability of these modified EXAMS models to be useful in predicting pesticide fate and exposure in small tidal estuaries. This is a significant improvement and expansion of the application of EXAMS, and given the wide use of EXAMS for surface water quality modeling by both researchers and regulators and the ability of EXAMS to interface with terrestrial models (e.g., pesticide root zone model) and bioaccumulation models, we now have an easily-accessible and widely accepted means of modeling chemical fate in estuaries. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2003

Effects of hurricane floyd inland flooding, September–October 1999, on tributaries to Pamlico Sound, North Carolina

Hurricane Floyd in September 1999 caused disastrous flooding from South Carolina to Massachusetts in the United States, with particularly severe and prolonged flooding in eastern North Carolina resulting in record flood-flow loadings of freshwater and contaminants to Pamlico Sound, North Carolina. The inland flooding, water quality, and loadings to Pamlico Sound were determined as part of a multi-agency response to the floods and in an effort to understand the effects of the floods on the greater Pamlico Sound Basin. All major river basins draining to Pamlico Sound experienced floods at the 500-yr recurrence level. The volume of flood waters entering Pamlico Sound during September–October 1999 was estimated to be equivalent to about 95% of the volume of Pamlico Sound, meaning that flood waters could have essentially displaced most of the water present in Pamlico Sound. Nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the Pamlico River estuary and Neuse River estuary, the two principal estuaries draining to Pamlico Sound, in a 36-d period during the flooding were between 50–90% of the long term average annual loads. Pesticide concentrations in flood waters were surprisingly high, given the amount of dilution produced by the floodwaters.

North Carolina↗
USGS2001

Ecosystem impacts of three sequential hurricanes (Dennis, Floyd, and Irene) on the United States' largest lagoonal estuary, Pamlico Sound, NC

Three sequential hurricanes, Dennis, Floyd, and Irene, affected coastal North Carolina in September and October 1999. These hurricanes inundated the region with up to 1 m of rainfall, causing 50- to 500-year flooding in the watershed of the Pamlico Sound, the largest lagoonal estuary in the United States and a key West Atlantic fisheries nursery. We investigated the ecosystem-level impacts on and responses of the Sound to the floodwater discharge. Floodwaters displaced three-fourths of the volume of the Sound, depressed salinity by a similar amount, and delivered at least half of the typical annual nitrogen load to this nitrogen-sensitive ecosystem. Organic carbon concentrations in floodwaters entering Pamlico Sound via a major tributary (the Neuse River Estuary) were at least 2-fold higher than concentrations under prefloodwater conditions. A cascading set of physical, chemical, and ecological impacts followed, including strong vertical stratification, bottom water hypoxia, a sustained increase in algal biomass, displacement of many marine organisms, and a rise in fish disease. Because of the Sound's long residence time (???1 year), we hypothesize that the effects of the short-term nutrient enrichment could prove to be multiannual. A predicted increase in the frequency of hurricane activity over the next few decades may cause longer-term biogeochemical and trophic changes in this and other estuarine and coastal habitats.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS1998

Lake Hickory, North Carolina: Analysis of ambient conditions and simulation of hydrodynamics, constituent transport, and water-quality characteristics, 1993-94

From January 1993 through March 1994, circulation patterns and water- quality characteristics in Lake Hickory varied seasonally and were strongly influenced by inflows from Rhodhiss Dam. The upper, riverine portion of Lake Hickory was unstratified during much of the study period. Downstream from the headwaters to Oxford Dam, Lake Hickory thermally stratified during the summer of 1993. During stratification, releases from Rhodhiss Dam plunged beneath the warmer surface waters of Lake Hickory and moved through the reservoir as interflow. During fall and winter, Lake Hickory was characterized by alternating periods of mixing and weak stratification. Water-quality conditions in the headwaters of Lake Hickory were largely driven by conditions in water being released from Rhodhiss Dam. In general, water clarity increased, and concentrations of suspended solids, phosphorus, and summertime chlorophyll a decreased in a downstream direction from the headwaters of Lake Hickory to Oxford Dam. Two chlorophyll a samples from the upper portion of Lake Hickory exceeded the North Carolina water-quality standard of 40 micrograms per liter during the investigation. Downstream from the headwaters, dissolved oxygen was rapidly depleted from Lake Hickory bottom waters beginning in May 1993, and anoxic conditions persisted in the hypolimnion throughout the summer. During summer stratification, concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate, ammonia, and orthophosphate were low in the epilimnion, but concentrations of ammonia near the bottom of the reservoir increased as the hypolimnion became anoxic. Concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria exceeded 200 colonies per 100 milliliters in only one of 60 samples collected from Lake Hickory. In contrast, concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria exceeded 200 colonies per 100 milliliters in 40 percent of samples collected from the Upper Little River, and in 60 percent of samples collected from the Middle Little River, two tributaries to Lake Hickory. Load estimates for the period April 1993 through March 1994 indicated that releases from Rhodhiss Dam accounted for most of the suspended solids, nitrogen, and phosphorus entering the headwaters of Lake Hickory. Loads of nitrogen and phosphorus from point-source discharges were potentially important, but loads of suspended solids from these discharges were insignificant relative to other sources. The CE-QUAL-W2 model was applied to Lake Hickory from the U.S. Highway 321 bridge to Oxford Dam?a distance of 22 kilometers?and was calibrated by using data collected from April 1993 through March 1994. During the simulation period, measured water levels varied a total of 1.14 meters, and water temperatures ranged from 4 to 31 degrees Celsius. The calibrated model provided good agreement between measured and simulated water levels at Oxford Dam. Likewise, simulated water temperatures were generally within 1 degree Celsius of measured values; however, water temperatures were oversimulated for the fall of 1993. Simulated dissolved oxygen concentrations generally agreed with measurements; however, the model tended to oversimulate dissolved oxygen concentrations during the late summer and early fall. There was good agreement between simulated and measured frequency of occurrence of dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 4 milligrams per liter. Simulations of tracer dye releases demonstrated the effects of stratification on dilution and rate of transport in Lake Hickory. Simulations were made of the effects of changes in nutrient loads from inflows and from bottom sediments. A simulated 30-percent reduction in inflow concentrations of orthophosphate, ammonia, and nitrate at the U.S. Highway 321 bridge delayed the initial springtime pulse of algal growth by about 2 weeks, but had little effect on dissolved oxygen concentrations. Likewise, a reduction in the release rate of orthophosphate and ammonia from bottom sediments had very little effect on simulated algae

North Carolina↗
USGS1997

Rhodhiss Lake, North Carolina: Analysis of ambient conditions and simulation of hydrodynamics, constituent transport, and water-quality characteristics, 1993-94

From January 1993 through March 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted an investigation of Rhodhiss Lake in cooperation with the Western Piedmont Council of Governments. Objectives of the investigation were to describe ambient hydrologic and water-quality conditions, to estimate loadings of nutrients and suspended solids from selected tributaries and point sources, and to simulate hydraulic circulation and water-quality characteristics in Rhodhiss Lake using a hydrodynamic computer model. The riverine headwaters of Rhodhiss Lake were unstratified, well oxygenated, and contained relatively high concentrations of suspended solids and nutrients throughout the study period. In general, concentrations of suspended solids, nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus decreased in a downstream direction from the headwaters to the Rhodhiss Dam. However, increases in specific conductance frequently were observed downstream from a wastewater discharge near mid-reservoir. From mid-reservoir to the dam, Rhodhiss Lake thermally stratified during the summer of 1993. In this reach, dissolved oxygen was rapidly depleted from the bottom waters beginning in May 1993, and anoxic conditions persisted in the hypolimnion through the summer. During summer stratification, concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate, ammonia, and orthophosphate were low in the epilimnion, but concentrations of ammonia, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus increased in the hypolimnion. During fall and winter, Rhodhiss Lake was characterized by alternating periods of stratification and mixing. A maximum chlorophyll-a concentration of 52 micrograms per liter was observed at mid-reservoir on November 17, 1993, and was the only value that exceeded the North Carolina water-quality standard of 40 micrograms per liter. Concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria exceeded 200 colonies per 100 milliliters in the headwaters of Rhodhiss Lake 37 percent of the time, and at mid-reservoir and in the forebay 16 percent of the time. In Lower Creek, a tributary to Rhodhiss Lake, concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria exceeded 200 colonies per 100 milliliters in 76 percent of the samples. This stream also contained elevated concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate, phosphorus, and specific conductance. Loading estimates showed that almost all of the suspended solids and the majority of the nitrogen and phosphorus entering the headwaters of Rhodhiss Lake originated from nonpoint sources. During the investigation, point sources accounted for less than 1 percent of the suspended solids load to the reservoir headwaters, but point sources accounted for up to 27 and 22 percent of the total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads, respectively. Additional loadings of nitrogen and phosphorus entered Rhodhiss Lake by municipal wastewater discharge near mid-reservoir. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 model is a two-dimensional, laterally averaged model that simulates hydrodynamics and water quality. The model was applied to Rhodhiss Lake from Huffman Bridge to Rhodhiss Dam--a distance of 18.5 kilometers--and was calibrated using data collected from April 1993 through March 1994. During the simulation period, measured water levels varied a total of 1.32 meters, and water temperatures ranged from 4 to 30 degrees Celsius. The calibrated model provided good agreement between measured and simu- lated water levels at Rhodhiss Dam. Likewise, simulated water temperatures were generally within 2 degrees Celsius of measured values; however, the model tended to overpredict temperatures near the bottom of the reservoir by 1 to 3 degrees Celsius during warm months. This suggests that the model, as calibrated, overpredicts vertical mixing. Simulated dissolved oxygen concentrations followed the same general patterns and magnitudes as measured values, and there was good agreement between simulated and measured frequency of occurrence of dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 5 milligra

North Carolina↗
USGS1996

Aftermath of Hurricane Fran in North Carolina; preliminary data on flooding and water quality

Floods resulting from Hurricane Fran, which passed through North Carolina on September 5-6, 1996, were some of the most severe and widespread in the State in recent memory. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for the collection and interpretation of water-resources information, including flood data, for the Nation. As such, the USGS, in cooperation with the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and numerous other State and local agencies, is continuing to document the effects of Hurricane Fran on the water resources of North Carolina. The purpose of this report is to present preliminary, selected information on the flooding and associated water-quality conditions which followed Hurricane Fran in North Carolina

North Carolina↗
USGS1996

Estimating flood hydrographs for urban basins in North Carolina

A dimensionless hydrograph for North Carolina was developed from data collected in 29 urban and urbanizing basins in the State. The dimen- sionless hydrograph can be used with an estimate of peak flow and basin lagtime to synthesize a design flood hydrograph for urban basins in North Carolina. Peak flows can be estimated from a number of avail- able techniques; a procedure for estimating basin lagtime from main channel length, stream slope, and percentage of impervious area was developed from data collected at 50 sites and is presented in this report. The North Carolina dimensionless hydrograph provides satis- factory predictions of flood hydrographs in all regions of the State except for basins in or near Asheville where the method overestimated 11 of 12 measured hydrographs. A previously developed dimensionless hydrograph for urban basins in the Piedmont and upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina provides better flood-hydrograph predictions for the Asheville basins and has a standard error of 21 percent as compared to 41 percent for the North Carolina dimensionless hydrograph.

North Carolina↗
USGS1996

Streamflow characteristics of the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina, 1940-94

Streamflow characteristics of the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina, for the period 1940-94 were described and compared to stream- flows in the adjacent Lumber River Basin. Precipitation in the two basins was about equal for the study period. During 1940-63, stream- flows in the Waccamaw and Lumber Rivers were essentially identical relative to average conditions. The flow regime from the late 1950's to the early 1980's was distinctly wetter than the flow regimes which immediately preceded and followed this period. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flow in the Wacca- maw River at the 90-percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985- 94, a relatively dry period, was very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970-79, the wettest 10-year period between 1940 and 1994. Prior to the 1980's, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. There is an increasing trend in the difference between Waccamaw River and Lumber River high flows, primarily as a result of increases in Waccamaw River high flows. On average, streamflow in the Waccamaw River consisted of 53.3 percent base flow, but base flow accounted for 70.6 percent of the total flow in the Lumber River, which is more typical of Coastal Plain streams. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970's. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985-94.

North Carolina↗
USGS1995

Water-quality characteristics of streams in the Treyburn Development area of Falls Lake watershed, North Carolina, 1988-93

Treyburn is a 5,400 acre planned, mixed-use community located in the Falls Lake watershed in the upper Neuse River Basin of North Carolina. From February 1988 through 1993, hydrologic-data were collected at 17 study sites in or near the Treyburn development to compare the effects of varying types of land-use development on the water-quality of streams flowing in or near the development. The collected hydrologic data included measurements of streamflow and concentrations of major dissolved constituents, nutrients, minor elements, and organic compounds. Streamflow in the study basin was approximately 40 percent lower in 1992 and 40 percent higher in 1993 than the long-term annual mean of the long-term discharge records at Flat River in Bahama. Calcium and bicarbonate were the predominant cation and anion at all study sites except one. Mean total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at sites in the Treyburn development ranged from 0.5 to 0.8 and 0.03 to 0.10 milligrams per liter, respectively. Total aluminum, iron, and manganese were the metals most frequently detected in the 200 organic compunds analyzed. Dichloro- difluoromethane and methylene chloride were detected most often.

North Carolina↗
USGS1993

An interim report on flows in the lower Roanoke River, and water quality and hydrodynamics of Albermarle Sound, North Carolina, October 1989-April 1991

In 1990, a 3-year investigation was begun in North Carolina to: (1) develop a model for computing flows in the lower 67 mi of the Roanoke River; (2) characterize water-quality conditions in Albemarle Sound; and (3) describe the circulation regime of Albemarle Sound, particularly in relation to inflows. This report summarizes data and results obtained during the first year of the study. The water level in Albemarle Sound may affect flows in the Roanoke River as far as 60 mi upstream from the mouth of the river. The presence of higher water levels downstream relative to those upstream indicates that reverse flows likely occurred in the lower 20 mi of the Roanoke River in October and December 1990. A one-dimensional, unsteady flow model has been calibrated and validated for a 30-mi segment of the lower Roanoke River. Simulated and observed water levels typically differed by less than 0.5 ft, and simulated flows were generally within 10% of observed values. Near-surface and near-bottom specific conductances, near-surface water temperature, and near-surface, mid-depth, and near-bottom dissolved-oxygen concentrations were monitored at 10 locations in Albemarle Sound from October 1989 to April 1991. Observed salinities ranged from virtually 0 to more than 9 ppt, and maximum observed water temperatures were about 32C. Dissolved oxygen concentrations ranged from supersaturated to hypoxic conditions. The daily range in dissolved-oxygen concentrations was typically larger during the summer months than during the rest of the year, and the lowest dissolved-oxygen values were observed during the summer.

North Carolina↗