Geology topics

Ivan Arismendi

Publications and source records attributed to Ivan Arismendi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Environment, taxonomy, and socioeconomics predict non-imperilment in freshwater fishes

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa, yet conservation assessments remain incomplete for many species. Freshwater fishes provide essential ecosystem services such as food security, recreational opportunities, and cultural significance. Despite heavy alterations to freshwater ecosystems, the reasons for species’ sensitivity and resistance to imperilment are unclear. To address this need, we develop a machine learning framework to predict global imperilment status for 10,631 freshwater fish species using a comprehensive set of environmental, socioeconomic, and intrinsic species-level predictors. Using updated IUCN Red List data, we train and validate Random Forest classifiers to distinguish imperiled (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) from non-imperiled species. We examine the relative influence of 52 variables derived from 12 global sources describing extrinsic environmental and socioeconomic factors and intrinsic species-specific characteristics. Our models achieve higher accuracy for non-imperiled species (90.1%) compared to imperiled species (81.8%), reflecting the greater heterogeneity of threats and conditions driving imperilment. Across models, key predictors include habitat variables, taxonomic order, hydrological characteristics, and disturbance indicators, underscoring the interplay between ecology, geography, and human pressures. This integrative, reproducible approach demonstrates the utility of machine learning for guiding proactive conservation and provides a scalable framework for global biodiversity risk assessment.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2025

Environmental conditions influencing the abundance of the salmonid ectoparasite Salmincola californiensis across upper Willamette River Reservoirs, Oregon

The freshwater copepod Salmincola californiensis is an ectoparasite of Pacific salmon and trout ( Oncorhynchus spp.). High levels of infection by this parasite can significantly damage gills and result in blood loss, affecting the fitness and survival of hosts, and it may hinder recovery efforts of threatened and endangered salmonids. Juvenile salmonids that rear in reservoirs have been reported to experience higher rates of infection than their stream-dwelling counterparts. To date, the relationship between reservoir environmental conditions and infection rates remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluated sampling methods designed to capture S. californiensis copepodids, the free-swimming infectious life stage of this parasitic copepod, and develop predictive models of parasite abundance in reservoirs . We used light traps to collect 675 zooplankton samples from various sites and depths in Cougar, Lookout Point, and Fall Creek reservoirs, Oregon, USA during five months in 2020. We tested several predictive models of parasite abundance using environmental covariates obtained concurrently during plankton surveys ( e.g. , temperature, ambient light and water clarity, reservoir plankton profiles, and water flow). Our models showed a strong influence of water temperature on abundance of copepodids, with maximum initial abundance occurring at the mean water temperature 15.2 °C. At that temperature, August abundance was estimated to be 58.6 copepodids per site in Cougar Reservoir, 43.8 copepodids per site in Fall Creek Reservoir, and 3.5 copepodids per site in Lookout Point Reservoir. Water temperature and reservoir outflow both affected population growth of copepodids: increased water temperature was associated with an increase in population growth rate while an increased reservoir outflow was associated with a decrease in population growth rate. The efficacy of our sampling method was influenced by percent of moon fullness, whether the sample site was above or below the thermocline, water temperature, and number of juvenile sculpin fishes ( Cottus spp.) captured in the trap. The mean probability of detecting a single copepodid if one was present was 0.042, but detection probability increased to 0.29 under ideal trap set conditions of warmer water, location above the thermocline, and a full moon. Biologists and managers could use these methods to assess the presence and abundance of S. californiensis in other locations, or to inform reservoir operations to reduce potential salmonid infections.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

First documentation of pelagic larvae of Prickly Sculpin Cottus asper in Willamette Basin reservoirs using a novel light trapping method

Although sculpin can play important ecological roles, serving as abundant key meso-predators in freshwater aquatic systems, much remains to be learned about their development and ecology. Depth discrete light traps effectively captured larval sculpin from Lookout Point Reservoir in the Willamette Basin, Oregon, USA. We confirm that these larvae were Prickly Sculpin ( Cottus asper ) based on morphology and genetics. We also document larval size and development and examine monthly vertical distributions and sympatric invertebrate taxa. We captured 1,048 pelagic larval Prickly Sculpin from 4.21 to 42.0 mm total length. Sampling occurred in traps set up to 20 m above the substrate, with Prickly Sculpin captured at all sampled depths. Captures shifted toward deeper reservoir habitats corresponding to increases in average body sizes as the season progressed from early spring to fall. We found most larval Prickly Sculpin at locations within the main reservoir body, several kilometers downstream of riverine areas. In addition to trap location, the abundance of larval Prickly Sculpin per trap was strongly associated with aquatic mites (absent from Prickly Sculpin stomachs). These findings suggest potentially shared ecological drivers of the observed distributions of larval Prickly Sculpin and mites. Collectively, we demonstrate that light trapping can be a useful method for collecting pelagic juvenile sculpins from reservoirs, in this case Prickly Sculpin, with the potential to improve our understanding of distribution, life-history patterns, and ecology throughout their range.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

Modeling diverse environmental responses of reservoirs to floating photovoltaic systems

Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems are emerging as a promising strategy for large-scale clean energy production worldwide. However, by altering key physical drivers such as solar radiation and wind mixing, FPV installations may have also unintended consequences for lakes and reservoirs. Given the wide diversity of freshwater systems globally, understanding the consistency in direction and magnitude of environmental responses to FPV deployment is critical for informed regulatory oversight and sustainable energy development. Here, we used process-based models to simulate the effects of FPV coverage on 11 reservoirs across the United States. This is the first multi-reservoir analysis using a laterally averaged 2D process-based modeling framework to systematically evaluate FPV impacts across diverse climatic and morphometric contexts, enabling direct comparison of magnitude and direction of responses among systems. Specifically, we evaluated changes in (1) surface and outflow temperature, (2) thermocline depth, (3) water column stability, (4) dissolved oxygen concentrations, and (5) potential suitable habitat availability for warm- and cold-water fishes. We quantified changes in these response variables by an iterative approach that simulates increases in FPV coverage and compares them with reference conditions. We summarized responses for winter (January–February) and summer (July–August). As expected, our simulations show that increasing FPV coverage consistently cooled surface waters and altered thermal stratification patterns, but the magnitude and environmental implications of these changes varied among reservoirs. Notably, greater FPV coverage led to increased variability in habitat suitability for aquatic species, with some reservoirs exhibiting distinct and sometimes divergent responses. These findings underscore the importance of considering local environmental contexts when assessing FPV impacts. While large-scale FPV systems offer potential benefits for climate mitigation, their ecological effects, particularly on thermally sensitive biota, require careful site-specific evaluation to avoid unintended consequences to local freshwater biodiversity.

Arkansas, Idaho, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Washingt↗

USGS2024

Documenting historical anchorworm parasitism of introduced warmwater fishes in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

Anchorworms ( Lernaea spp.) are freshwater parasitic copepods that use a wide range of hosts. Yet little is known about their prevalence, distribution, and which species are their primary fish hosts in the state of Oregon. Institutional fish collections serve as banks which allow investigators to look at historical fish specimens and ascertain their health status at the time of their collection. We examined 1,039 specimens collected between 1941 and 2016 from the Oregon State Ichthyology Collection to detect the presence of anchorworms on non-native warmwater fishes from the Willamette River Basin, Oregon. Adult female anchorworms were found on 11 of the 17 fish species that we examined. The most infected species included common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ), bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ). We suggest these introduced warmwater fishes can act not only as hosts, but also as potential reservoirs for these under-studied parasites posing a potential risk for Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed native fishes. Our findings reveal unique insights that will serve as a baseline to detect future changes in parasite loads in the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2023

Evidence for infection influencing survival of the freshwater copepod Salmincola californiensis, a parasite of Pacific salmon and trout

Objective We explore apparent infection of Salmincola californiensis arising during investigations involving this lernaeopodid copepod parasitic on Pacific salmon and trout Oncorhynchus spp. Methods We noted occasional unusual coloration of adult female copepods collected from the wild. These females were bright blue and pink in contrast to the cream white coloration characteristic of the copepod. We also observed that similar color patterns developed under laboratory settings when copepod eggs were held for hatching. In paired egg cases, we found consistent hatching failure of blue and pink eggs and patterns in apparent disease development that would be consistent with both vertical and horizontal transmission. Result Attempts to identify the cause of the apparent infection using genetic methods and transmission electron microscopy were inconclusive. Conclusion Iridovirus infection was initially suspected, but bacterial infection is also plausible. This apparent reduced hatching success of S. californiensis warrants further exploration as it could reduce local abundances. Given the potential importance of a disease impacting this copepod, a parasite that itself affects endangered and commercially important Pacific salmon and trout, future research would benefit from clarification of the apparent infection through additional sequencing, primer development, visualization, and exploration into specificity and transmission.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗

USGS2023

Contemporary distribution of non-native Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in South America

Chinook salmon represent one of the most successful salmonid introductions in South America, and today multiple naturalized populations exist across Patagonia. Here, we present an updated regional distribution of Chinook salmon that includes new records of occurrences collected between 2006 and 2022. We found a significant range expansion in terms of occurrences for adult (18 new basins; 2,854,108 km 2 ) and adult spawners or juvenile (12 new basins; 53,262 km 2 ) salmon extending both to the north and south of the previously known colonized range in South America. This range expansion (38% of the area considering only occurrences indicating reproduction via adult spawners or juvenile salmon) included major basins draining to both the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean coasts of the continent. Adult Chinook salmon are currently reported from 48 large basins (33.62°–54.97° S) covering a total drainage area of 3,047,197 km 2 . The observed expansion we document here has been likely driven by the dispersal of straying adults from historically naturalized populations. Our findings provide evidence that the invasion of Chinook salmon in South America is ongoing and updated information relevant to the management of this invasive and socio-ecologically important fish.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2023

Linked foraging and bioenergetics modeling may inform fish parasite infection dynamics

The parasitic copepod Salmincola californiensis infects Pacific salmon and trout ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and often reaches high prevalence and intensity in reservoirs compared to stream systems. Recent research indicates that temperature plays a fundamental role in copepod development and fish susceptibility. Here, we expand a linked foraging and bioenergetics model to simulate infection risk. Based on juvenile salmon vertical migration patterns, we add estimates of copepod generations produced and thermal strata metrics that appear associated with copepodid aggregations and increased infection. Severe damage on hosts may be caused by the infectious copepodid, a life-stage not readily visible and thus not detectable using traditional fish screenings. We discuss model limitations, opportunities for future research, and the potential for inclusion of copepod expansion equations to existing linked bioenergetics models or observed behaviors of salmonids in other lentic systems. We demonstrate that using a temperature sensitive model framework that includes copepod infection dynamics is useful in interpreting other lines of evidence, such as fish mortality estimates. Collectively, our work provides a testable framework for future comparisons of infection potential and demonstrates how bioenergetics models may be useful in understanding host–parasite interactions.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2023

HABs and HAB nots: Dynamics of phytoplankton blooms across similar oligotrophic reservoirs

Increasing frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) threaten human and aquatic ecosystem health. Improving our understanding of HABs across a range of systems will be critical to understanding and potentially minimizing risk, especially where HABs are occurring in less productive and less studied waterbodies. Here, the characteristics and annual dynamics of phytoplankton communities were examined, focusing on the timing, magnitude, and predictability of cyanobacterial blooms in five multi-purpose flood-control reservoirs from the Willamette Basin, Oregon, USA. A high similarity in phytoplankton composition and consistency in the timing of cyanobacterial dominance was hypothesized to occur across these oligotrophic reservoirs. However, periods of dominance by potentially HABs producing genera were inconsistent both in their timing and abundances among reservoirs and across years within each reservoir. The lack of regional predictability indicates the importance of local drivers in the formation, intensity, and composition of phytoplankton blooms. These findings have important implications for reservoir management and safeguarding freshwater drinking sources, as not all reservoirs appear to experience cyanobacterial blooms at the same time, demonstrating non-concurrent risks of HABs.

Limnologica - Ecology and Management of Inland Wat↗

USGS2023

Caddisfly dives for oviposition: Record-shattering depths and poor life choices in a dammed river system

Oviposition is a critical step in the life cycles of aquatic insects. Adult caddisflies exhibit a variety of oviposition methods. In some species, females enter freshwaters to oviposit on submerged substrates. Here, we compile information on North American caddisflies that are known to dive and swim to oviposit and have sexually dimorphic leg characteristics that may be adaptations for swimming, diving, or both. We also report unexpected underwater captures of adult females of 3 caddisfly species in Willamette Basin reservoirs in Oregon, USA, including the deepest dive depths ever recorded for adult female caddisflies. From these captures, we note sexually dimorphic leg widening in the species Hydropsyche centra Ross, 1938 for the first time, confirm widened mesothoracic leg segments of Hydropsyche occidentalis Banks, 1900 adult females, and note fringes of long hairs on meso- and metathoracic tibiae and basal tarsal segments of Hydroptila argosa Ross, 1938 females. We also note fringes of long hairs on the meso- and metathoracic legs of Hydroptila ajax Ross, 1938 females from the banks of the Willamette River. The presumed oviposition attempts of caddisflies underwater in large, deep reservoirs suggest that these caddisflies may misinterpret oviposition cues in altered habitats and waste reproductive efforts. Greater understanding of caddisfly oviposition methods and abilities may be important for long-term conservation and restoration efforts supporting biodiversity in freshwater habitats.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

What to do when invaders are out of control?

Biological invasions threaten species and ecosystems worldwide. Impacts from invasions are especially prevalent in freshwaters, where managers have struggled to contain the problem. Conventional approaches to managing invaders focus on prevention and control. In practice, these measures have proven to be variably effective. Control or eradication of established invaders is particularly difficult and, even if ecologically feasible, it may not be socially desirable. Here we propose a new alternative to managing invasive species: managing impact modifiers (MIM). The MIM approach focuses on managing impacts, rather than controlling the invader directly. We reviewed the literature for the world's worst invasive fishes in freshwaters to show there is strong evidence to support the potential for MIM as an effective means of managing impacts of invasions. This included evidence pointing to characteristics of the environment or species themselves that modify impacts of invasions. Detail of three case studies reinforces the potential for MIM as a viable option. Although MIM appears promising, effective application could involve significant investment in an information gathering phase to identify impact modifiers and the means to manage them. Accordingly, MIM is best incorporated into management plans that include a strong learning or adaptive component. Ultimately, MIM may be one of the only viable alternatives for managing invasive species that are truly out of control.

WIREs Water↗

USGS2018

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries‐long blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on mid‐latitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2017

A statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature

Intermittent and ephemeral streams represent more than half of the length of the global river network. Dryland freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changes in human-related water uses as well as shifts in terrestrial climates. Yet, the description and quantification of patterns of flow permanence in these systems is challenging mostly due to difficulties in instrumentation. Here, we took advantage of existing stream temperature datasets in dryland streams in the northwest Great Basin desert, USA, to extract critical information on climate-sensitive patterns of flow permanence. We used a signal detection technique, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), to extract information from daily time series of stream temperature to diagnose patterns of stream drying. Specifically, we applied HMMs to time series of daily standard deviation (SD) of stream temperature (i.e., dry stream channels typically display highly variable daily temperature records compared to wet stream channels) between April and August (2015–2016). We used information from paired stream and air temperature data loggers as well as co-located stream temperature data loggers with electrical resistors as confirmatory sources of the timing of stream drying. We expanded our approach to an entire stream network to illustrate the utility of the method to detect patterns of flow permanence over a broader spatial extent. We successfully identified and separated signals characteristic of wet and dry stream conditions and their shifts over time. Most of our study sites within the entire stream network exhibited a single state over the entire season (80%), but a portion of them showed one or more shifts among states (17%). We provide recommendations to use this approach based on a series of simple steps. Our findings illustrate a successful method that can be used to rigorously quantify flow permanence regimes in streams using existing records of stream temperature.

Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2015

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

Higher-order statistical moments and a procedure that detects potentially anomalous years as two alternative methods describing alterations in continuous environmental data

Statistics of central tendency and dispersion may not capture relevant or desired characteristics of the distribution of continuous phenomena and, thus, they may not adequately describe temporal patterns of change. Here, we present two methodological approaches that can help to identify temporal changes in environmental regimes. First, we use higher-order statistical moments (skewness and kurtosis) to examine potential changes of empirical distributions at decadal extents. Second, we adapt a statistical procedure combining a non-metric multidimensional scaling technique and higher density region plots to detect potentially anomalous years. We illustrate the use of these approaches by examining long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-influenced streams. In particular, we contrast predictions about thermal regime responses to changing climates and human-related water uses. Using these methods, we effectively diagnose years with unusual thermal variability and patterns in variability through time, as well as spatial variability linked to regional and local factors that influence stream temperature. Our findings highlight the complexity of responses of thermal regimes of streams and reveal their differential vulnerability to climate warming and human-related water uses. The two approaches presented here can be applied with a variety of other continuous phenomena to address historical changes, extreme events, and their associated ecological responses.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2014

Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?

Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature–stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0 °C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2014

Differential invasion success of salmonids in southern Chile: patterns and hypotheses

Biological invasions create complex ecological and societal issues worldwide. Most of the knowledge about invasions comes only from successful invaders, but less is known about which processes determine the differential success of invasions. In this review, we develop a framework to identify the main dimensions driving the success and failure of invaders, including human influences, characteristics of the invader, and biotic interactions. We apply this framework by contrasting hypotheses and available evidence to explain variability in invasion success for 12 salmonids introduced to Chile. The success of Oncorhynchus mykiss and Salmo trutta seems to be influenced by a context-specific combination of their phenotypic plasticity, low ecosystem resistance, and propagule pressure. These well-established invaders may limit the success of subsequently introduced salmonids, with the possible exception of O. tshawytscha, which has a short freshwater residency and limited spatial overlap with trout. Although propagule pressure is high for O. kisutch and S. salar due to their intensive use in aquaculture, their lack of success in Chile may be explained by environmental resistance, including earlier spawning times than in their native ranges, and interactions with previously established and resident Rainbow Trout. Other salmonids have also failed to establish, and they exhibit a suite of ecological traits, environmental resistance, and limited propagule pressure that are variably associated with their lack of success. Collectively, understanding how the various drivers of invasion success interact may explain the differential success of invaders and provide key guidance for managing both positive and negative outcomes associated with their presence.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2013

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

Freshwater Biology↗