Geology topics

Ian Sue Wing

Publications and source records attributed to Ian Sue Wing.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

The long shadow of a major disaster: Modeled dynamic impacts of the hypothetical HayWired earthquake on California’s economy

We develop and apply a dynamic economic simulation model to analyze the multi-regional impacts of, and mechanisms of recovery from, a major disaster, the HayWired scenario — a hypothetical Magnitude 7.0 earthquake affecting California’s San Francisco Bay Area. The model integrates loss pathways: capital stock damage, labor supply shocks due to short-term population displacement and longer-run out-migration from damaged areas, and the exacerbating effects of damage to transportation infrastructure capital, as well as various aspects of static and dynamic economic resilience. With input substitution-based static inherent resilience and dynamic resilience in the form of optimal intertemporal and spatial investment allocation, gross output losses range from 0.5 percent to 6 percent across regions, and welfare losses are 0.4 percent statewide but can be ten times as large in hardest-hit areas. Large-scale reconstruction investment is supported by substantial interregional transfers of resources through intra-state trade. Increased output via firms engaging in the key adaptive resilience tactic of production recapture can alleviate a substantial fraction of losses—but only if upstream and downstream barriers to recovery can be lowered quickly.

California↗

USGS2022

Economic consequences of the HayWired earthquake scenario

This study evaluates the economic impacts of a M w 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake on the greater San Francisco Bay Region’s economy and the California economy as a whole using a detailed multiregional, static computable general equilibrium model. Economic impacts in terms of Gross Regional Product (GRP) losses caused by both capital stock (building and content) damages and water and electricity utilities, and telecommunications-service disruptions are estimated. The results indicate that the total losses are primarily caused by capital stock damages. In the 6 months following the earthquake, total GRP losses are estimated to be $44.2 billion (4.2 percent of California’s projected baseline GRP over the period), but this result could be reduced by about 43 percent to $25.3 billion after factoring in microeconomic resilience tactics. The GRP losses associated with lifeline service disruptions are estimated to be $1.4 billion, which can be reduced by over 85 percent when resilience tactics are implemented. The most effective tactics are the ability to make up lost production by people working overtime or extra shifts (production recapture), making greater use of processes that do not need disrupted goods or services (production isolation), and substituting for disrupted supplies and services (input substitution), though their impact varies across the various causal factors influencing GRP losses.

California↗

USGS2016

Economic consequence analysis of the Arkstorm scenario

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic consequence analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajectory. The methodology serves as a template for assessing the macroeconomic consequences of disasters and the influence of resilience in reducing BI losses.

National Hazards Review↗

USGS2016

Economic impacts of a California tsunami

The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, and U.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier) effects of lost production in industries upstream and downstream in the supply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargo disruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach (POLA/POLB), property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundated areas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from port disruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion from evacuations. Various economic-resilience tactics can potentially reduce the direct and total impacts by 80–85%.

California↗

USGS2013

Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. An appropriate measure of the economic impacts on the California economy for the SAFRR tsunami scenario is the reduction in GDP. The economic impacts are first calculated without resilience, the ability of the economy to adjust to disruptions in ways that mute potential negative impacts. There are many types of resilience, including using existing inventories of materials, using unused capacity, conserving inputs, substituting for disrupted supplies, recapturing production after the disruption is restored, and many others. A method for estimating resilience, identified in the port system and sectors affected by property damages, is applied to indicate potential reductions of direct and total economic impacts. In this SAFRR tsunami scenario analysis of economic impacts to California, we implement established techniques used to model the economic impacts for two previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scenarios: the southern California Shakeout earthquake (Rose and others, 2011) and the California ARkStorm severe winter storm (Sue Wing and others, written commun., 2013). For the SAFRR tsunami scenario, we reviewed the relevant studies that assess economic impacts from previous tsunami events affecting California and elsewhere and estimate the economic impacts of potential tsunami and other threats to POLA and POLB. To our knowledge, assessment of impacts to the California economy from distant source tsunamis does not exist. Previous tsunamis, including those from the 1960 Chile earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2008 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Japan earthquake, had only relatively minor or very localized severe damage (such as that in Crescent City in 1964), and no studies of the economic impacts were completed. A rare study of the economic impacts of a tsunami event has recently been produced for the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (Kajitani and others, 2013). Quarterly declines in Japan’s GDP are observed to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

California↗

USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗