Geology topics

Ian A. Pfingsten

Publications and source records attributed to Ian A. Pfingsten.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Current and near-future conditions of aquatic spatial data for use in ecological models in the United States

To address increasing demand for ecological models of aquatic species that can inform the management of national freshwater resources, we leveraged manager input to develop suites of environmental data layers characterizing freshwater habitats for the contiguous United States. Using the National Hydrography Dataset, these new data cover lentic and lotic systems under current and near-future environmental conditions. The data include a variety of covariate categories including climate, soil chemistry, land use and land cover, and human modification of the surrounding landscape. The predictor resolution for atmospheric climate predictors was the lake (wetland) or stream reach, and, for the terrestrial proxies, the subwatershed (HUC12) surrounding the lake or stream reach was chosen to capture the relevant land features surrounding the habitat. Future land use, land cover and streamflow predictions were included from present to mid-century. These data are available for the development of freshwater ecological models in the contiguous United States for a variety of applications, including species distribution modeling and exploring change in spatially diverse aquatic systems in time.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2026

Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north

As environmental conditions change, land managers are increasingly concerned about the potential for new aquatic invasive species to move into their jurisdictions. Because managers may have limited resources, detecting invasive species early is important as prevention is more effective and less costly than ongoing mitigation of established populations. Tools built to assist early detection efforts often use information on pathways of spread (how species move through a landscape) and maps of suitability (where habitat allows a species to live and reproduce). While each is useful, information on pathways or suitability alone provides only a part of the story of invasion risk. To better anticipate the risk of invasive species expanding their ranges into the Northeast U.S., there is a need to improve the way we combine and use pathways and suitability information, especially across large areas (e.g., states, regions). To fill this need, we took a new approach that combines estimates of current and future suitability with a diverse variety of pathways that gives us invasion risk scores for more than 100 freshwater invaders (fishes, plants, and invertebrates) across the Northeast U.S. In this report, we provide an overview of our methodology, results, and a description of the ongoing work to make the data publicly available. This work can be used to aid early detection efforts and associated management activities at state and local levels, including the identification of invasion risk hotspots and ranking of individual species risk to help anticipate and prevent invader establishment.

northeast United States↗

USGS2023

Identifying invasive species threats, pathways, and impacts to improve biosecurity

Managing invasive species with prevention and early-detection strategies can avert severe ecological and economic impacts. Horizon scanning, an evidence-based process combining risk screening and consensus building to identify threats, has become a valuable tool for prioritizing invasive species management and prevention. We assembled a working group of experts from academic, government, and nonprofit agencies and organizations, and conducted a multi-taxa horizon scan for Florida, USA, the first of its kind in North America. Our primary objectives were to identify high-risk species and their introduction pathways, to detail the magnitude and mechanism of potential impacts, and, more broadly, to demonstrate the utility of horizon scanning. As a means to facilitate future horizon scans, we document the process used to generate the list of taxa for screening. We evaluated 460 taxa for their potential to arrive, establish, and cause negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and identified 40 potential invaders, including alewife, zebra mussel, crab-eating macaque, and red swamp crayfish. Vertebrates and aquatic invertebrates posed the greatest invasion threat, over half of the high-risk taxa were omnivores, and there was high confidence in the scoring of high-risk taxa. Common arrival pathways were ballast water, biofouling of vessels, and escape from the pet/aquarium/horticulture trade. Competition, predation, and damage to agriculture/forestry/aquaculture were common impact mechanisms. We recommend full risk analysis for the high-risk taxa; increased surveillance at Florida's ports, state borders, and high-risk pathways; and periodic review and revision of the list. Few horizon scans detail the comprehensive methodology (including list-building), certainty estimates for all scoring categories and the final score, detailed pathways, and the magnitude and mechanism of impact. Providing this information can further inform prevention efforts and can be efficiently replicated in other regions. Moreover, harmonizing methodology can facilitate data sharing and enhance interpretation of results for stakeholders and the general public.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2022

Scanning the horizon for invasive plant threats using a data-driven approach

Early detection and eradication of invasive plants are more cost-effective than managing well-established invasive plant populations and their impacts. However, there is high uncertainty around which taxa are likely to become invasive in a given area. Horizon scanning that combines a data-driven approach with rapid risk assessment and consensus building among experts can help identify invasion threats. We performed a horizon scan of potential invasive plant threats to Florida, USA—a state with a high influx of introduced species, conditions that are generally favorable for plant establishment, and a history of negative impacts from invasive plants. We began with an initial list of 2128 non-native plant taxa that are known invaders or crop pests. We built on previous invasive species horizon scans by developing data-based criteria to prioritize 100 taxa for rapid risk assessment. The semi-automated prioritization process included selecting taxa “on the horizon” (i.e., not yet in the target location and not on a noxious weed list) with climate matching, naturalization history, “weediness” record, and global commonness. We derived overall invasion risk scores with rapid risk assessment by evaluating the likelihood of each of the taxa arriving, establishing, and having an impact in Florida. Then, following a consensus-building discussion, we identified six plant taxa as high risk, with overall risk scores ranging from 75 to 100 out of a possible 125. The six taxa are globally distributed, easily transported to new areas, found in regions with climates similar to Florida’s, and can impact native plant communities, human health, or agriculture. Finally, we evaluated our initial and final lists for potential biases. Assessors tended to assign higher risk scores to taxa that had more available information. In addition, we identified biases towards four plant families and certain geographical regions of origin. Our horizon scan approach identified taxa conforming to metrics of high invasion risk and used a methodology refined for plants that can be applied to other locations.

NeoBiota↗