Geology topics

I. Stirling

Publications and source records attributed to I. Stirling.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture–recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2–4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 ± 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (<300 m water depth) has declined over the 35-year period of this study. If the climate continues to warm as predicted, we predict that the polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to adapt.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2010

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as projected.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2010

Allocating harvests among polar bear stocks in the Beaufort Sea

Recognition that polar bears are shared by hunters in Canada and Alaska prompted development of the “Polar Bear Management Agreement for the Southern Beaufort Sea.” Under this Agreement, the harvest of polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) is shared between Inupiat hunters of Alaska and Inuvialuit hunters of Canada. Quotas for each jurisdiction are to be reviewed annually in light of the best available scientific information. Ideal implementation of the Agreement has been hampered by the inability to quantify geographic overlap among bears from adjacent populations. We applied new analytical procedures to a more extensive radiotelemetry data set than has previously been available to quantify that overlap and thereby improve the efficacy of the Agreement. We constructed a grid over the eastern Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea and used twodimensional kernel smoothing to assign probabilities to the distributions of all instrumented bears. A cluster analysis of radio relocation data identified three relatively discrete groups or “populations” of polar bears: the SBS, Chukchi Sea (CS), and northern Beaufort Sea (NBS) populations. With kernel smoothing, we calculated relative probabilities of occurrence for individual members of each population in each cell of our grid. We estimated the uncertainty in probabilities by bootstrapping. Availability of polar bears from each population varied geographically. Near Barrow, Alaska, 50% of harvested bears are from the CS population and 50% from the SBS population. Nearly 99% of the bears taken by Kaktovik hunters are from the SBS. At Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada, 50% are from the SBS and 50% from the NBS population. We displayed the occurrence of bears from each population as probabilities for each cell in our grid and as maps with contour lines delineating changes in relative probability. This new analytical approach will greatly improve the accuracy of allocating harvest quotas among hunting communities and jurisdictions while assuring that harvests remain within the bounds of sustainable yield.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

USGS2010

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2009

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are relevant to the extinction risk facing approximately one-third of the world's polar bears.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2009

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km 2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km 2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long-distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high-latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2006

Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea

Intraspecific killing has been reported among polar bears (Ursus maritimus), brown bears (U. arctos), and black bears (U. americanus). Although cannibalism is one motivation for such killings, the ecological factors mediating such events are poorly understood. Between 24 January and 10 April 2004, we confirmed three instances of intraspecific predation and cannibalism in the Beaufort Sea. One of these, the first of this type ever reported for polar bears, was a parturient female killed at her maternal den. The predating bear was hunting in a known maternal denning area and apparently discovered the den by scent. A second predation event involved an adult female and cub recently emerged from their den, and the third involved a yearling male. During 24 years of research on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea region of northern Alaska and 34 years in northwestern Canada, we have not seen other incidents of polar bears stalking, killing, and eating other polar bears. We hypothesize that nutritional stresses related to the longer ice-free seasons that have occurred in the Beaufort Sea in recent years may have led to the cannibalism incidents we observed in 2004. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Polar Biology↗

USGS2002

Genetic structure of the world's polar bear populations

We studied genetic structure in polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) populations by typing a sample of 473 individuals spanning the species distribution at 16 highly variable microsatellite loci. No genetic discontinuities were found that would be consistent with evolutionarily significant periods of isolation between groups. Direct comparison of movement data and genetic data from the Canadian Arctic revealed a highly significant correlation. Genetic data generally supported existing population (management unit) designations, although there were two cases where genetic data failed to differentiate between pairs of populations previously resolved by movement data. A sharp contrast was found between the minimal genetic structure observed among populations surrounding the polar basin and the presence of several marked genetic discontinuities in the Canadian Arctic. The discontinuities in the Canadian Arctic caused the appearance of four genetic clusters of polar bear populations. These clusters vary in total estimated population size from 100 to over 10 000, and the smallest may merit a relatively conservative management strategy in consideration of its apparent isolation. We suggest that the observed pattern of genetic discontinuities has developed in response to differences in the seasonal distribution and pattern of sea ice habitat and the effects of these differences on the distribution and abundance of seals.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS2002

The polar bear management agreement for the southern Beaufort Sea: An evaluation of the first ten years of a unique conservation agreement

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) of the southern Beaufort Sea population, distributed from approximately Icy Cape, west of Point Barrow, to Pearce Point, east of Paulatuk in Canada, are harvested by hunters from both countries. In Canada, quotas to control polar bear hunting have been in place, with periodic modifications, since 1968. In Alaska, passage of the United State Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) of 1972 banned polar bear hunting unless done by Alaska Natives for subsistence. However, the MMPA placed no restrictions on numbers or composition of the subsistence hunt, leaving open the potential for an overharvest with no possible legal management response until the population was declared depleted. Recognizing that as a threat to the conservation of the shared polar bear population, the Inuvialuit Game Council from Canada and the North Slop Borough from Alaska negotiated and signed a user-to-user agreement, the Polar Bear Management Agreement for the Southern Beaufort Sea, in 1988. We reviewed the functioning of the agreement through its first 10 years and concluded that, overall, it has been successful because both the total harvest and the proportion of females in the harvest have been contained within sustainable limits. However, harvest monitoring needs to be improved in Alaska, and awareness of the need to prevent overharvest of females needs to be increased in both countries. This agreement is a useful model for other user-to-user conservation agreements.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2001

Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history

Knowledge of population size and trend is necessary to manage anthropogenic risks to polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Despite capturing over 1,025 females between 1967 and 1998, previously calculated estimates of the size of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) population have been unreliable. We improved estimates of numbers of polar bears by modeling heterogeneity in capture probability with covariates. Important covariates referred to the year of the study, age of the bear, capture effort, and geographic location. Our choice of best approximating model was based on the inverse relationship between variance in parameter estimates and likelihood of the fit and suggested a growth from ≈ 500 to over 1,000 females during this study. The mean coefficient of variation on estimates for the last decade of the study was 0.16—the smallest yet derived. A similar model selection approach is recommended for other projects where a best model is not identified by likelihood criteria alone.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2000

Movements and distribution of polar bears in the Beaufort sea

We fitted 173 satellite radio collars (platform transmitter terminals) to 121 adult female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea and relocated the bears 44 736 times between 1985 and 1995. We regularly resighted many instrumented bears so that we could ascertain whether changes in movements or distribution were related to reproductive status. Mean short-term movement rates were less than 2 km/h for all classes of bears. Maximum movement rates occurred in winter and early summer. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS), net geographic movements from the beginning to the end of each month were smaller for females with cubs of the year than for solitary females, and larger in November than in April, May, or July. In May, June, July, and August, radio-collared bears in the SBS moved north. They moved south in October. In the northern Beaufort Sea (NBS), bears moved north in June and south in March and September. Total annual movements ranged from 1406 to 6203 km. Mean total distances moved each month ranged from 79 to 420 km. Total monthly movements by SBS bears were largest in early winter and smallest in early spring. In the NBS, movements were largest in summer and smallest in winter. In the SBS, females with cubs moved less each month than other females. Annual activity areas ranged from 7264 to 596 800 km 2 . Monthly activity areas ranged from 88 to 9760 km 2 . Seasonal fidelity to activity areas of bears captured in all parts of the Beaufort Sea was strongest in summer and weakest in spring.

Alaska, Northwest Territories↗

USGS1998

Chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminants in polar bears from eastern Russia, North America, Greenland, and Svalbard: Biomonitoring of Arctic pollution

Adipose tissue samples from polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) were obtained by necropsy or biopsy between the spring of 1989 to the spring of 1993 from Wrangel Island in Russia, most of the range of the bear in North America, eastern Greenland, and Svalbard. Samples were divided into 16 regions corresponding as much as possible to known stocks or management zones. Concentrations of dieldrin (DIEL), 4,4'-DDE (DDE), sum of 16 polychlorinated biphenyl congeners (sigma PCB), and sum of 11 chlordane-related compounds and metabolites (sigma CHL) were determined. In order to minimize the effect of age, only data for adults (320 bears age 5 years and older) was used to compare concentrations among regions. Concentrations of sigma PCB were 46% higher in adult males than females, and there was no significant trend with age. Concentrations of sigma CHL were 30% lower in adult males than females. Concentrations of sigma PCB, sigma CHL, and DDE in individual adult female bears were standardized to adult males using factors derived from the least-square means of each sex category, and geometric means of the standardized concentrations on a lipid weight basis were compared among regions. Median geometric mean standardized concentrations (lipid weight basis) and ranges among regions were as follows: sigma PCB, 5,942 (2,763-24,316) micrograms/kg; sigma CHL, 1,952 (727-4,632) micrograms/kg; DDE, 219 (52-560) micrograms/kg; DIEL, 157 (31-335) micrograms/kg. Geometric mean sigma PCB concentrations in bears from Svalbard, East Greenland, and the Arctic Ocean near Prince Patrick Island in Canada were similar (20,256-24,316 micrograms/kg) and significantly higher than most other areas. Atmospheric, oceanic, and ice transport, as well as ecological factors may contribute to these high concentrations of sigma PCB. sigma CHL was more uniformly distributed among regions than the other CHCs. Highest sigma CHL concentrations were found in southeastern Hudson Bay, which also had the highest DDE and DIEL concentrations. In general, concentrations of sigma CHL, DDE, and DIEL were higher in eastern than western regions, suggesting an influence of North American sources. Average sigma PCB concentrations in bears from the Canadian Arctic were similar to those in 1982-84, while average sigma CHL and DDE concentrations were 35-44% lower and DIEL was 90% lower. However, the significance of these temporal trends during the 1980s is not conclusive because of the problems of comparability of data.

Arctic, Greenland, Svalbard↗