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Helen R. Sofaer

Publications and source records attributed to Helen R. Sofaer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

At the leading edge: Advancing and bridging the science and management of range-shifting species

Climate-mediated shifts in species distributions are reshaping ecosystems worldwide, creating major challenges for conservation and resource management. These range shifts have far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences, requiring managers to address complex ecological dynamics while navigating diverse regulatory and value systems. Despite growing attention, key gaps remain in supporting management, from improved understanding of the mechanisms of range shifts, to evaluating the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, and tailoring science to the institutional and social contexts of decision-making. Central challenges include scaling processes across space, time, and organizational levels, and reconciling mismatches between biogeographical and management scales. Progress will depend on more comprehensive datasets to assess outcomes across taxa and regions, stronger cross-jurisdictional cooperation, and decision frameworks that integrate uncertainty alongside multiple value systems. Addressing these gaps is essential to make research more actionable and to enable successful management of species redistribution.

BioScience↗
USGS2025

Non-native bird populations respond differently to their environment and exhibit shifts in ecological niche limits across continents

Aim The degree to which species' niches remain stable over space and time–the niche conservatism hypothesis–is critical for predicting species' responses to environmental change. Tests of this hypothesis typically focus on changes in niche centroids and boundaries. An outstanding question is whether species' environmental associations differ within the interior of their niche space–that is, across the full range of occupied conditions–in original versus novel geographic space. Location Europe and North America. Time Period 1997–2018. Major Taxa Studied Birds. Methods We used over 400,000 observations collected over 22 years and across 28 countries to explore whether two common songbird species—European starling ( Sturnus vulgaris ) and house sparrow ( Passer domesticus ) – exhibit niche conservatism between their native European and non-native North American ranges. We tested for niche conservatism via (1) an ordination approach that quantified change in niche shape and boundaries, and (2) generalised linear mixed effects models to quantify how abundance varied with the interaction between continent and climate or land cover variables. Results The ordination analysis indicated that both European starling and house sparrow exhibited niche conservatism between Europe and North America. However, abundance models revealed continental differences in how the species responded to temperature and land cover. The abundance models also revealed that areas with wetter conditions that were occupied by both species in their native European ranges were available but unoccupied in their non-native North American ranges (i.e., niche unfilling). Main Conclusions Our work demonstrates that species can exhibit apparent consistency in niche boundaries but varied abundance responses to the environment within niche boundaries. Expanding the study of niche conservatism to explore changes both at the edge of and within niche boundaries would improve the ability to assess and predict species' invasion risk or sensitivity to ongoing global change.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2025

Host preferences of non-native Acalolepta aesthetica (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) on the Island of Hawai'i

1. Understanding the host preferences of non-native polyphagous insects is a key step in anticipating their impacts. 2. We apply a technique from wildlife ecology, a resource selection function, to quantify the host preferences of Acalolepta aesthetica Olliff (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae: Lamiinae) in its non-native range on the Island of Hawaiʻi. We then visually surveyed its preferred host to map its distributional extent and conducted laboratory no-choice tests to assess risks to common native woody species. 3. The preferred host of A. aesthetica was the state tree, Aleurites moluccanus (L.) Willd., the kukui (or candlenut). Cacao ( Theobroma cacao L.) was the second most preferred host. Infestations were also observed in Citrus species, Artocarpus altilis (Parkinson) Fosberg (ʻulu or breadfruit) and Persea americana Mill. (avocado), but preferences among these taxa were statistically indistinguishable. 4. Acalolepta aesthetica females oviposited on all tested species in no-choice trials, but larvae growing within ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha Gaudich.) and koa ( Acacia koa A. Gray) died. It therefore poses a low risk to these two tree species, which are foundational to Hawaiian native forests. Acalolepta aesthetica was able to complete its development within ʻōlapa ( Cheirodendron trigynum (Gaudich.) A. Heller), which could be monitored if the distribution of A. aesthetica spreads to native forests. 5. The host species preferred by A. aesthetica are highly valued for agricultural, horticultural and cultural uses. Developing monitoring and management techniques for this cerambycid and employing strong biosecurity could prevent human-mediated spread and limit negative impacts to other Hawaiian Islands, the U.S. mainland, and the world.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Why are non-native plants successful? Consistently fast economic traits and novel origin jointly explain abundance across US ecoregions

Are non-native plants abundant because they are non-native, and have advantages over native plants, or because they possess ‘fast’ resource strategies, and have advantages in disturbed environments? This question is central to invasion biology but remains unanswered. We quantified the relative importance of resource strategy and biogeographic origin in 69 441 plots across the conterminous United States containing 11 280 plant species. Non-native species had faster economic traits than native species in most plant communities (77%, 86% and 82% of plots for leaf nitrogen concentration, specific leaf area, and leaf dry matter content). Non-native species also had distinct patterns of abundance, but these were not explained by their fast traits. Compared with functionally similar native species, non-native species were (1) more abundant in plains and deserts, indicating the importance of biogeographic origin, and less abundant in forested ecoregions, (2) were more abundant where co-occurring species had fast traits, for example due to disturbance, and (3) showed weaker signals of local environmental filtering. These results clarify the nature of plant invasion: Although non-native plants have consistently fast economic traits, other novel characteristics and processes likely explain their abundance and, therefore, impacts.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Drought and deluge— Opportunities for climate-change adaptation in US national parks

In a changing climate, resource management depends on anticipating changes and considering uncertainties. To facilitate effective decision making on public lands, we regionally summarized the magnitude and uncertainty of projected change in management-relevant climate variables for 332 national park units across the contiguous US. Temperature, frequency of extreme precipitation events, and drought exposure are all projected to increase within seven regions delineated in the US National Climate Assessment. In particular, the anticipated collective impacts of droughts and flooding events will lead to unique management challenges, including combinations of management actions that may seem inconsistent. Furthermore, uncertainty in the magnitude of change varied by region and climate variable considered, pointing to specific opportunities for prioritization, transferability, and innovation of climate adaptation regionally and at the park-unit scale.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

Nebraska↗
USGS2025

A quantitative classification of the geography of non-native flora in the United States

Aim Non-native plants have the potential to harm ecosystems. Harm is classically related to their distribution and abundance, but this geographical information is often unknown. Here, we assess geographical commonness as a potential indicator of invasive status for non-native flora in the United States. Geographical commonness could inform invasion risk assessments across species and ecoregions. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period Through 2022. Major Taxa Studied Plants. Methods We compiled and standardised occurrence and abundance data from 14 spatial datasets and used this information to categorise non-native species as uncommon or common based on three dimensions of commonness: area of occupancy, habitat breadth and local abundance. To assess consistency in existing categorizations, we compared commonness to invasive status in the United States. We identified species with higher-than-expected abundance relative to their occupancy, habitat breadth or residence time. We calculated non-native plant richness within United States ecoregions and estimated unreported species based on rarefaction/extrapolation curves. Results This comprehensive database identified 1874 non-native plant species recorded in 4,844,963 locations. Of these, 1221 species were locally abundant (> 10% cover) in 797,759 unique locations. One thousand one hundred one non-native species (59%) achieved at least one dimension of commonness, including 565 species that achieved all three. Species with longer residence times tended to meet more dimensions of commonness. We identified 132 species with higher-than-expected abundance. Ecoregions in the central United States have the largest estimated numbers of unreported, abundant non-native plants. Main Conclusions A high proportion of non-native species have become common in the United States. However, existing categorizations of invasive species are not always consistent with species' abundance and distribution, even after considering residence time. Considering geographical commonness and higher-than-expected abundance revealed in this new dataset could support more consistent and proactive identification of invasive plants and lead to more efficient management practices.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Using plant invasions to compare occurrence- and abundance-based calculations of biotic homogenisation: Are results complementary or contradictory?

Aim Beta diversity quantifies the similarity of ecological assemblages. Its increase, known as biotic homogenisation, can be a consequence of biological invasions. However, species occurrence (presence/absence) and abundance-based analyses can produce contradictory assessments of the magnitude and direction of changes in beta diversity. Previous work indicates these contradictions should be less frequent in nature than in theory, but a growing number of empirical studies report discrepancies between occurrence- and abundance-based approaches. Understanding if these discrepancies represent a few isolated cases or are systematic across a diversity of ecosystems would allow us to better understand the general patterns, mechanisms and impacts of biotic homogenisation. Location United States. Time Period 1963–2020. Major Taxa Studied Vascular plants. Methods We used a dataset of more than 70,000 vegetation survey plots to assess differences in biotic homogenisation with and without invasion using both occurrence- and abundance-based metrics of beta diversity. We estimated taxonomic biotic homogenisation by comparing beta diversity of invaded and uninvaded plots with both classes of metrics and investigated the characteristics of the non-native species pool that influenced the likelihood that these metrics disagree. Results In 78% of plot comparisons, occurrence- and abundance-based calculations agreed in direction, and the two metrics were generally well correlated. Our empirical results are consistent with previous theory. Discrepancies between the metrics were more likely when the same non-native species was at high cover at both plots compared for beta diversity, and when these plots were spatially distant. Main Conclusions In about 20% of cases, our calculations revealed differences in direction (homogenisation vs. differentiation) when comparing occurrence- and abundance-based metrics, indicating that the metrics are not interchangeable, especially when distances between plots are high and invader diversity is low. When data permit, combining the two approaches can offer insights into the role of invasions and extirpations in driving biotic homogenisation/differentiation.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2025

Vertebrates in trade that pose high invasion risk to the United States

The United States imports thousands of live vertebrate species annually as part of legal trade. Escapes and releases from captivity are major pathways of invasion, however, the risk posed by the thousands of imported vertebrate species has not been systematically assessed. We conducted a horizon scan that used a data-driven climate match to filter a list of nearly 15,000 taxa drawn from across the globe of imported fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals for rapid assessment by taxonomic experts. Experts evaluated 840 species and identified 32 (22 reptiles and 10 fishes) as having the highest risk for establishment, spread, and negative impacts. Of those high-risk species, the majority have the capacity to disrupt ecosystem processes via their role as top predators or the unique ecological niches that they occupy, while several of the snake species pose a threat to human health. High-risk species were often scored with high confidence while in contrast, low scores were attributed to a combination of ecological redundancy, low propagule pressure, or low climate match while low confidence arose from a lack of information in the literature (i.e., data deficiency). Our study therefore highlights legally imported species likely to cause the greatest harm with the recognition that many other species could also become invasive in the United States. The ranked list of vertebrate threats can be used to prioritize watchlists and inform the development of targeted regulations for importation can be applied to regions to provide a rapid, preliminary screening for large pools of potential invaders.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2025

Abundance of ohiʻa-associated ambrosia beetles in two sites with rapid ohiʻa death outbreaks

ʻŌhiʻa lehua ( Metrosideros polymorpha Gaudich.) is the dominant tree in native Hawaiian forests but is threatened by two pathogenic fungi ( Ceratocystis spp.) which cause Rapid ʻŌhiʻa Death (ROD). Understanding the spread of ROD is vital to informing prevention and management strategies. Ambrosia beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) contribute to the spread of disease by releasing contaminated frass into the environment or carrying fungal spores between trees on their bodies. We quantified the abundance of ʻōhiʻa-associated ambrosia beetles and their potential contributions to fungal spread within two study sites experiencing active ROD outbreaks. We established a grid of beetle traps at each site, cultured trap samples for viable Ceratocystis , and compared the spatial distribution of beetle captures with that of ʻōhiʻa trees showing symptoms of ROD. Nearly all captured ʻōhiʻa-associated beetles were Xyleborinus saxesenii (Ratzeburg) or Xylosandrus crassiusculus (Motschulsky), both introduced species that utilize many plant hosts. For both species, abundance was unrelated to distance to the nearest symptomatic ʻōhiʻa tree. However, at one of our sites, Xylosandrus crassiusculus abundance was higher on one side of a fence line, where there were more symptomatic ʻōhiʻa within a denser and more diverse forest. Culturing the collected samples (beetles, water, and debris) produced instances of Ceratocystis viability in samples both with and without ʻōhiʻa-associated beetles, supporting the potential for transmission via frass carried by wind as well as direct transmission by beetles. The community of ʻōhiʻa-associated beetles we captured differed from previous findings at lower elevation sites, highlighting the complexity of beetlemediated fungal infection risk.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

First records distribution models to guide biosurveillance for non-native species

Quickly locating new populations of non-native species can reduce the ecological and economic costs of species invasions. However, the difficulty of predicting which new non-native species will establish, and where, has limited active post-border biosurveillance efforts. Because pathways of introduction underlie spatial patterns of establishment risk, an intuitive approach is to search for new non-native species in areas where many non-native species have first been detected in the past. We formalize this intuition via first records distribution models (FRDMs), which apply species distribution modeling methods to the collection of first occurrence records across species (i.e. one record per species). We define FRDMs as statistical models that quantify environmental conditions associated with species' first naturalized records to predict spatial patterns of establishment risk. We model the first records of non-native plants in the conterminous USA as a proof-of-concept. The novelty of FRDMs is that their inferences apply not just to the species that contributed data; they provide a rigorous framework for predicting hotspots of invasion for new non-native taxa that share a pathway of introduction with the modeled species. FRDMs can guide survey efforts for new non-native taxa at multiple scales and across ecosystems.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

Naturalized species drive functional trait shifts in plant communities

Despite decades of research documenting the consequences of naturalized and invasive plant species on ecosystem functions, our understanding of the functional underpinnings of these changes remains rudimentary. This is partially due to ineffective scaling of trait differences between native and naturalized species to whole plant communities. Working with data from over 75,000 plots and over 5,500 species from across the United States, we show that changes in the functional composition of communities associated with increasing abundance of naturalized species mirror the differences in traits between native and naturalized plants. We find that communities with greater abundance of naturalized species are more resource acquisitive aboveground and belowground, shorter, more shallowly rooted, and increasingly aligned with an independent strategy for belowground resource acquisition via thin fine roots with high specific root length. We observe shifts toward herbaceous-dominated communities but shifts within both woody and herbaceous functional groups follow community-level patterns for most traits. Patterns are remarkably similar across desert, grassland, and forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that the establishment and spread of naturalized species, likely in combination with underlying environmental shifts, leads to predictable and consistent changes in community-level traits that can alter ecosystem functions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2024

Environmental and geographical factors influence the occurrence and abundance of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, in Hawai‘i

Hawaiian honeycreepers, a group of endemic Hawaiian forest birds, are being threatened by avian malaria, a non-native disease that is driving honeycreepers populations to extinction. Avian malaria is caused by the parasite Plasmodium relictum , which is transmitted by the invasive mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus . Environmental and geographical factors play an important role in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics through their influence on the distribution and abundance of mosquitoes. We assessed the effects of environmental (temperature, precipitation), geographic (site, elevation, distance to anthropogenic features), and trap type (CDC light trap, CDC gravid trap) factors on mosquito occurrence and abundance. Occurrence was analyzed using classification and regression tree models (CART) and generalized linear models (GLM); abundance (count data) was analyzed using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Models predicted highest mosquito occurrence at mid-elevation sites and between July and November. Occurrence increased with temperature and precipitation up to 580 mm. For abundance, the best model was a zero-inflated negative-binomial model that indicated higher abundance of mosquitoes at mid-elevation sites and peak abundance between August and October. Estimation of occurrence and abundance as well as understanding the factors that influence them are key for mosquito control, which may reduce the risk of forest bird extinction.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Observed and potential range shifts of native and non-native species with climate change

There is broad concern that the range shifts of global flora and fauna will not keep up with climate change, increasing the likelihood of population declines and extinctions. Many populations of nonnative species already have advantages over native species, including widespread human-aided dispersal and release from natural enemies. But do nonnative species also have an advantage with climate change? Here, we review observed and potential range shifts for native and nonnative species globally. We show that nonnative species are expanding their ranges orders of magnitude faster than native species, reflecting both traits that enable rapid spread and ongoing human-mediated introduction. We further show that nonnative species have large potential ranges and range expansions with climate change, likely due to a combination of widespread introduction and broader climatic tolerances. With faster spread rates and larger potential to persist or expand, nonnative populations have a decided advantage in a changing climate.

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systemati↗
USGS2023

The use of semiochemicals for attracting and repelling invasive ambrosia beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in ʻōhiʻa (Metrosideros polymorpha) forests

Early detection of invasive species is critical for preventing ecological and economic damage and maintaining ecosystem health. In Hawaiʻi, a complex of generalist ambrosia beetle species in the tribe Xyleborini (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) are threatening the health and productivity of forests and crops due to their association with tree diseases such as rapid ʻōhiʻa death (ROD) and key agricultural commodities including coffee and macadamia. We conducted trapping experiments to determine the efficacy of semiochemicals to attract and repel Xyleborini ambrosia beetles within two ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha ) forests on the Island of Hawaiʻi. We compared the attraction of beetles to 100% ethanol and a 1:1 mixture of ethanol: methanol at Waiākea Forest Reserve and ʻŌlaʻa Forest in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. In addition, we tested the extent to which verbenone and verbenone + methyl salicylate repellents (SPLAT® Verb and SPLAT® Beetle Guard, respectively) deterred beetles from baited traps at Waiākea Forest Reserve in two separate experiments. For all invasive ambrosia beetle species, including Xyleborinus saxesenii , Xyleborus affinis , Xyleborus ferrugineus , Xyleborus perforans, Xylosandrus compactus , and Xylosandrus crassiusculus , more beetles were captured in traps baited with 100% ethanol than 1:1 ethanol: methanol. Across all species, both repellents were effective, with fewer beetles captured in traps equipped with repellents. Our research demonstrates the utility of semiochemicals for attracting and repelling invasive ambrosia beetle species in Hawaiʻi, and the potential use of these tools for early detection and management strategies.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Macroscale analyses suggest invasive plant impacts depend more on the composition of invading plants than on environmental context

Aim Native biodiversity is threatened by the spread of non-native invasive species. Many studies demonstrate that invasions reduce local biodiversity but we lack an understanding of how impacts vary across environments at the macroscale. Using ~11,500 vegetation surveys from ecosystems across the United States, we quantified how the relationship between non-native plant cover and native plant diversity varied across different compositions of invading plants (measured by non-native plant richness and evenness) and environmental contexts (measured by productivity and human activity). Location Continental United States. Time Period Surveys from 1990s-present. Major Taxa Studied Terrestrial plant communities. Methods We fit mixed effects models to understand how native plant richness, diversity and evenness varied with non-native cover. We tested how this relationship varied when non-native cover interacted with non-native plant richness and evenness, and with productivity and human activity. Results Across the United States, communities with greater cover of non-native plants had lower native plant richness and diversity but higher evenness, suggesting rare native plants can be lost while dominant plants decline in abundance. The relationship between non-native cover and native community diversity varied with non-native plant richness and evenness but was not associated with productivity and human activity. Negative associations were strongest in areas with low non-native richness and evenness, characterizing plant communities that were invaded by a dominant non-native plant. Main Conclusions Non-native plant cover provides a first approximation of invasion impacts on native community diversity, but the magnitude of impact depended on non-native plant richness and evenness. Relationships between non-native cover and native diversity were consistent in strength across continental scale gradients of productivity and human activity. Therefore, at the macroscale, invasive plant impacts on native plant communities likely depend more on the characteristics of the invading plants, that is the presence of a dominant invader, than on the environmental context.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗