Geology topics

Harold J. Tobin

Publications and source records attributed to Harold J. Tobin.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Improving offshore 3D splay fault geometries and slip histories using seismic data reprocessing and structural modeling

The goal of this project as written in the CRESCENT seed grant proposal was as follows: 1) reprocess selected profiles along strike from 45° to 48°N from the CASIE21 crustal-scale seismic data to obtain higher-resolution and higher-quality imaging of the uppermost 1-2 km of the accretionary wedge; 2) convert high-resolution USGS sparker seismic data from the time to depth domain to constrain near-surface fault geometries; 3) use kinematic modeling in the MOVE software to derive individual fault slip rates and per-event-displacements; and 4) work with the CFM group to create updated 3D models of identified faults based on the new data sources. At this stage, we have begun the reprocessing of the CASIE21 seismic reflection data (Carbotte et al., 2023). The time-migration reprocessing of the CASIE21 dataset has improved imaging of the near-surface structure by incorporating usable frequencies up to ~220 Hz, in contrast to the ~50 Hz maximum usable content in the currently available pre-stack depth migrated (PSDM) profiles (Fig. 1C). An example of the image quality gained through reprocessing is shown in Fig. 1, where the dominant wavelength of each reflector is reduced to ~10 m (Fig. 1B) from ~20 m in the existing PSDM product (Fig. 1A). The reprocessing work is still currently in progress. While the imaging in the shallow section has been much improved, reprocessing below the first multiple is still needed to create a seamless image from the plate boundary to the surface.

Final Report↗

USGS2025

Potential for continental scientific drilling to inform fault mechanics and earthquake science

Our understanding of fault mechanics and earthquake processes remains limited, largely due to minimal direct observations near active faults at seismogenic depths. This lack of data restricts our ability to accurately assess and mitigate both natural and human-induced seismic hazards. However, recent advancements in drilling capabilities and downhole sensing technologies offer an opportunity: the ability to observe the physical conditions within a volume near active fault zones. In this contribution, we highlight how scientific drilling can provide access to the near-fault environment, enabling measurements of the stress, temperature, fluid pressure, and rock properties at depths where ruptures initiate, propagate, and arrest. These observations are essential to refine models of earthquake nucleation and dynamic rupture, bridging gaps between laboratory experiments, numerical simulations, and surface observations. These insights can advance fundamental understanding in earthquake science but also support the development of more effective seismic hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.

Seismica↗

USGS2025

No evidence for an active margin-spanning megasplay fault at the Cascadia Subduction Zone

It has been previously proposed that a megasplay fault within the Cascadia accretionary wedge, spanning from offshore Vancouver Island to Oregon, has the potential to slip during a future Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. This hypothetical fault has major implications for tsunami size and arrival times and is included in disaster-planning scenarios currently in use in the region. This hypothesis is evaluated in this study using CASIE21 deep-penetrating and U.S. Geological Survey high-resolution seismic reflection profiles. We map changes in wedge structural style and seismic character to identify the inner-outer wedge transition zone where a megasplay fault has been previously hypothesized to exist and evaluate evidence for active faulting within this zone. Our results indicate that there is not an active, through-going megasplay fault in Cascadia, but instead, the structure and activity of faulting at the inner-outer wedge transition zone is highly variable and segmented along strike, consistent with the segmentation of other physical and mechanical properties in Cascadia. Wedge sedimentation, plate dip, and subducting topography are proposed to play a major role in controlling megasplay fault development and evolution. Incorporating updated megasplay fault location, geometry, and activity into modeling of Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis could help better constrain associated hazards.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2024

Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system ( Given et al. , 2018 ). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized in California in October 2019. Over the next few years, public alerts were expanded into Oregon and then into Washington ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2024 ). ShakeAlert source results are routinely compared to the USGS Comprehensive Catalog (ComCat; Guy et al. , 2015 ; U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program, 2017 ), which contains the earthquake location and magnitude determined using complete waveform data. M 4.5 and larger is the threshold used for public alerting and was deliberately set below the level where damage is likely to compensate for cases where the system underestimates the magnitude. Between 17 October 2019 and 1 September 2023, the ShakeAlert system created 95 events with maximum magnitude estimates of M ≥4.5, the public alerting threshold. 94 of the 95 events were due to real earthquakes. Seven were categorized “false” per ShakeAlert’s internal definition that there was no matching catalog event within 100 km and 30 s of origin time; however, all but one of these were real earthquakes that were poorly located, primarily because they were at the edges of the seismic network. Three detected events were labeled “missed” because they were very poorly located (>100 km location error). In addition, the system did not produce solutions for four ComCat events M ≥4.5 ( U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program, 2017 ), which were all at the edge of the alerting and network boundaries. The ShakeAlert system has accurately detected the majority of earthquakes that have occurred within the operational region since completing the public rollout, and alerts from the system have been delivered to millions of cell phone users throughout the West Coast.

California, Oregon, Washington↗