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USGS2023

Watershed carbon yield derived from gauge observations and river network connectivity in the United States

River networks play a critical role in the global carbon cycle. Although global/continental scale riverine carbon cycle studies demonstrate the significance of rivers and streams for linking land and coastal regions, the lack of spatially distributed riverine carbon load data represents a gap for quantifying riverine carbon net gain or net loss in different regions, understanding mechanisms and factors that influence the riverine carbon cycle, and testing simulations of aquatic carbon cycle models at fine scales. Here, we (1) derive the riverine load of particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) for over 1,000 hydrologic stations across the Conterminous United States (CONUS) and (2) use the river network connectivity information for over 80,000 catchment units within the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) to estimate riverine POC and DOC net gain or net loss for watersheds controlled between upstream-downstream hydrologic stations. The new riverine carbon load and watershed net gain/loss represent a unique contribution to support future studies for better understanding and quantification of riverine carbon cycles.

Scientific Data↗

USGS2018

Real-time nowcasting of microbiological water quality at recreational beaches: A wavelet and artificial neural network-based hybrid modeling approach

The number of beach closings caused by bacterial contamination has continued to rise in recent years, putting beachgoers at risk of exposure to contaminated water. Current approaches predict levels of indicator bacteria using regression models containing a number of explanatory variables. Data-based modeling approaches can supplement routine monitoring data and provide highly accurate short-term forecasts of beach water quality. In this paper, we apply the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) method with explanatory variables to predict Escherichia coli concentrations at four Lake Michigan beach sites. We also apply the nonlinear input–output network (NIO) and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) methods in addition to a hybrid wavelet-NAR (WA-NAR) model and demonstrate their application. All models were tested using 3 months of observed data. Results revealed that the NARX models provided the best performance and that the WA-NAR model, which requires no explanatory variables, outperformed the NIO and NAR models; therefore, the WA-NAR model is suitable for application to data scarce regions. The models proposed in this paper were evaluated using multiple performance metrics, including sensitivity and specificity measures, and produced results comparable or superior to those of previous mechanistic and statistical models developed for the same beach sites. The relatively high R 2 values between data and the NARX models ( R 2 values of ∼0.8 for the beach sites and ∼0.9 for the river site) indicate that the new class of models shows promise for beach management.

Environmental Science & Technology↗