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H.J. Dowsett

Publications and source records attributed to H.J. Dowsett.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Climate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Workshop; Reston, Virginia, 2–4 August 2011 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), supported by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project and Powell Center, is an integral part of a third iteration of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). PlioMIP's aim is to systematically compare structurally different climate models. This is done in the context of the mid-Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago), a geological interval when the global annual mean temperature was similar to predictions for the next century.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2011

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2011

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland–Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2011

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2009

Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earths climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2009

Mid-Pliocene planktic foraminifer assemblage of the North Atlantic Ocean

The US Geological Survey Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) North Atlantic faunal data set provides a unique, temporally constrained perspective to document and evaluate the quantitative geographic distribution of key mid-Pliocene taxa. Planktic foraminifer census data from within the PRISM time slab (3.29 to 2.97 Ma) at thirteen sites in the North Atlantic Ocean have been analyzed. We have compiled Scanning Electron Micrographs for an atlas of mid-Pliocene assemblages from the North Atlantic with descriptions of each taxon to document the taxonomic concepts that accompany the PRISM data. In mid-Pliocene assemblages, the geographic distributions of extant taxa are similar to their present day distributions, although some are extended to the north. We use the distribution of extinct taxa to assess previous assumptions regarding environmental preferences.

Micropaleontology↗
USGS2009

Pliocene three-dimensional global ocean temperature reconstruction

A snapshot of the thermal structure of the mid-Piacenzian ocean is obtained by combining the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM3) multiproxy sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstruction with bottom water tempera-5 ture estimates produced using Mg/Ca paleothermometry. This reconstruction assumes a Pliocene water mass framework similar to that which exists today, with several important modifications. The area of formation of present day North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) was expanded and extended further north toward the Arctic Ocean during the mid-Piacenzian relative to today. This, combined with a deeper Greenland-Scotland Ridge, allowed a greater volume of warmer NADW to enter the Atlantic Ocean. In the Southern Ocean, the Polar Front Zone was expanded relative to present day, but shifted closer to the Antarctic continent. This, combined with at least seasonal reduction in sea ice extent, resulted in decreased Antarctic BottomWater (AABW) production (relative to present day) as well as possible changes in the depth of intermediate wa15 ters. The reconstructed mid-Piacenzian three-dimensional ocean was warmer overall than today, and the hypothesized aerial extent of water masses appears to fit the limited stable isotopic data available for this time period. ?? Author(s) 2009.

Climate of the Past Discussions↗
USGS2008

Introduction. Pliocene climate, processes and problems

Climate predictions produced by numerical climate models, often referred to as general circulation models (GCMs), suggest that by the end of the twenty-first century global mean annual surface air temperatures will increase by 1.1-6.4??C. Trace gas records from ice cores indicate that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are already higher than at any time during the last 650000 years. In the next 50 years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to reach a level not encountered since an epoch of time known as the Pliocene. Uniformitarianism is a key principle of geological science, but can the past also be a guide to the future? To what extent does an examination of the Pliocene geological record enable us to successfully understand and interpret this guide? How reliable are the 'retrodictions' of Pliocene climates produced by GCMs and what does this tell us about the accuracy of model predictions for the future? These questions provide the scientific rationale for this Theme Issue. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2005

Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature variability

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) based upon foraminifer, diatom, and ostracod assemblages from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Ma. Pollen records and plant megafossils, although not as well dated, show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport are the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. Despite being a period of global warmth, this interval encompasses considerable variability. Two new SST reconstructions are presented that are designed to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene and to document the spatial distribution and magnitude of SST variability within the mid-Pliocene warm period. These data suggest long-term stability of low-latitude SST and document greater variability in regions of maximum warming. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Paleoceanography↗
USGS2005

Mid-Pliocene deep-sea bottom-water temperatures based on ostracode Mg/Ca ratios

We studied magnesium:calcium (Mg/Ca) ratios in shells of the deep-sea ostracode genus Krithe from a short interval in the middle Pliocene between 3.29 and 2.97 Ma using deep-sea drilling sites in the North and South Atlantic in order to estimate bottom water temperatures (BWT) during a period of climatic warmth. Results from DSDP and ODP Sites 552A, 610A, 607, 658A, 659A, 661A and 704 for the period Ma reveal both depth and latitudinal gradients of mean Mg/Ca values. Shallower sites (552A, 610A and 607) have higher mean Mg/Ca ratios (10.3, 9.7, 10.1 mmol/mol) than deeper sites (661A, 6.3 mmol/mol), and high latitude North Atlantic sites (552A, 610A, 607) have higher Mg/Ca ratios than low latitude (658A: 9.8 mmol/mol, 659A: 7.7 mmol/mol, 661A: 6.3 mmol/mol) and Southern Ocean (704: 8.0 mmol/mol) sites. Converting Mg/Ca ratios into estimated temperatures using the calibration of Dwyer et al. (1995) [Dwyer, G.S., Cronin, T.M., Baker, P.A., Raymo, M.E., Buzas, J.S., Corre??ge, T., 1995. North Atlantic deepwater temperature change during late Pliocene and late Quaternary climatic cycles. Science 270, 1347-1351] suggests that mean middle Pliocene bottom water temperatures at the study sites in the deep Atlantic were about the same as modern temperatures. However, brief pulses of elevated BWT occurred several times between 3.29 and 2.97 Ma in both the North and South Atlantic Ocean suggesting short-term changes in deep ocean circulation.

Marine Micropaleontology↗
USGS2001

Modelling middle pliocene warm climates of the USA

The middle Pliocene warm period represents a unique time slice in which to model and understand climatic processes operating under a warm climatic regime. Palaeoclimatic model simulations, focussed on the United States of America (USA), for the middle Pliocene (ca 3 Ma) were generated using the USGS PRISM2 2?? ?? 2?? data set of boundary conditions and the UK Meteorological Office's HadAMS General Circulation Model (GCM). Model results suggest that conditions in the USA during the middle Pliocene can be characterised as annually warmer (by 2?? to 4??C), less seasonal, wetter (by a maximum of 4 to 8 mm/day) and with an absence of freezing winters over the central and southern Great Plains. A sensitivity experiment suggests that the main forcing mechanisms for surface temperature changes in near coastal areas are the imposed Pliocene sea surface temperatures (SST's). In interior regions, reduced Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ice, combined with less snow cover and a reduction in the elevation of the western cordillera of North America, generate atmospheric circulation changes and positive albedo feedbacks that raise surface temperatures. A complex set of climatic feedback mechanisms cause an enhancement of the hydrological cycle magnifying the moisture bearing westerly wind belt during the winter season (Dec., Jan., Feb.). Predictions produced by the model are in broad agreement with available geological evidence. However, the GCM appears to underestimate precipitation levels in the interior and central regions of the southern USA. Copyright: Palaeontological Association, 22 June 2001.

Palaeontologia Electronica↗
USGS2000

Multiproxy record of the last interglacial (MIS 5e) off central and northern California, U.S.A., from Ocean Drilling Program sites 1018 and 1020

Environmental and climatic conditions during the last interglacial (about 125,000 years ago) along the Central and Northern California coastal region are interpreted from study of marine cores recovered by the Ocean Drilling Program at sites 1018 and 1020. Marine microfossil and pollen assemblages, oxygen isotopes in benthic foraminifers, physical properties, and calcium carbonate contents of cored sediments are proxies indicating strong links between the marine and terrestrial environments during marine isotope stage 5 (MIS 5). At the beginning of the last interglacial (MIS 5e), reduction in global ice volume, increase in surface temperature, and warming of air temperature along the Central and Northern California coast were synchronous within the resolution of our sampling record.

Professional Paper↗
USGS1992

Micropaleontological evidence for increased meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic Ocean during the pliocene

The Middle Pliocene (∼3 million years ago) has been identified as the last time the Earth was significantly warmer than it was during the Last Interglacial and Holocene. A quantitative micropaleontological paleotemperature transect from equator to high latitudes in the North Atlantic indicates that Middle Pliocene warmth involved increased meridional oceanic heat transport.

Science↗
USGS1992

Planktonic foraminiferal assemblage of the Yorktown Formation, Virginia, USA

Planktonic foraminifers from Coastal Plain deposits in southeastern Virginia provide biochronologic control and paleoceanographic information for the lectostratotype of the Yorktown Formation and type localities of its four members. Faunas recovered from six localities are consistent with faunas reported from the Yorktown in North Carolina and Yorktown correlatives (Duplin and Raysor Formations) from Georgia to North Carolina and support an age assignment between 3.0 and 4.0 Ma. Quantitative estimates of surface temperature based upon the planktonic foraminifer assemblages indicate winter conditions 3?? to 5??C warmer than today and summer conditions essentially equivalent to today during Yorktown deposition. -Authors

Micropaleontology↗
USGS1991

Pliocene sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean at 3.0 Ma

Sea-surface temperature (SST) estimates based on quantitative analysis of planktic foraminifer faunas in North Atlantic deep sea cores suggest that high-frequency, low-amplitude variability related to orbital forcing was superimposed on long-term changes that delineate intervals within the Pliocene that were both warmer and cooler than today. SST estimates from several DSDP and ODP sites, as well as land sections, have been combined into a synoptic view of SST during a Pliocene warm interval centered at about 3.0 Ma. The Pliocene North Atlantic warm interval SST estimates show little evidence for warming in tropical regions whereas mid- to high-latitude areas show moderate to strong warming. SST estimates for the last interglacial (Isotope Stage 5e) show a similar pattern, but warming during the last interglacial was not as pronounced as the Middle Pliocene warming. The regional distribution of SST estimates during these past warm events suggests an increase in ocean circulation.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗