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Gregory T. Pederson

Publications and source records attributed to Gregory T. Pederson.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future

This study builds on a collaboration with a water resource management community of practice in the Upper Colorado River Basin to develop scenarios of future drought and assess impacts on water supply reliability. Water managers are concerned with the impacts of warming on water year streamflow, but uncertainties in projections of climate make the application of these projections to planning a challenge. Instead, water managers considered a plausible scenario for future drought to be historical droughts to which warming is added. We used a simple statistical model of water year streamflow with temperatures increased by 1 °C to 4 °C, and then examined reductions in flow and runoff efficiency (RE) with each degree of warming for the six droughts defined in the observed streamflow record. In order to place these results into a management context, we employed an existing framework for system reliability, and in particular, a vulnerability assessment for water delivery metrics. Using modeled streamflow resulting from 1 °C to 4 °C warming, we found vulnerable condition thresholds for the two water delivery metrics assessed, Upper Basin Shortage and Lees Ferry Deficit, were crossed relatively infrequently at +1 °C, but with a substantially increased frequency under additional warming. Results are more relevant to resource management because the impacts of warming on Upper Colorado River streamflow were assessed in the context of management metrics and vulnerability thresholds, in collaboration with members of the water management community of practice.

Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona↗
USGS2021

Growth and defense characteristics of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var latifolia) in a high-elevation, disturbance-prone mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana, USA

Recent, widespread tree mortality in the western U.S. resulting from changes in climate, pathogens, insect activity, and forest management practices has led to concerns for many ecologically and culturally important species. Within conifers, resin-based defenses have long been recognized as a primary defense mechanism against a variety of insects and pathogens. Oleoresin produced by trees contain complex mixtures of terpenoids that have numerous insecticidal and fungicidal properties. Research has also identified links between resin duct characteristics and increased probability of survival during bark beetle outbreaks. Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) is a culturally significant high elevation species that provides numerous ecological services within subalpine and alpine ecosystems. Whitebark pine has co-evolved with a suite of biotic and abiotic disturbances. Individual trees allocate resources towards growth and resin-based defenses, making it a good candidate species to evaluate growth and defense relationships and tradeoffs. In this study we compared constitutive resin chemistry, tree growth and resin duct anatomy between similarly aged whitebark and lodgepole pine ( P. contorta var latifolia ) growing in proximity within a disturbance-prone, mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana. These two host species have varying degrees of historical exposure to mountain pine beetle. Our research yields four important findings. First, we did not find evidence of a tradeoff between tree growth and tree defenses (resin duct morphology and resin chemistry). This suggests that trees growing under favorable field conditions can experience high growth rates and still allocate ample resources towards defense. Second, we found that resin ducts and constitutive mono- and sesqui- terpenes were not correlated in lodgepole pine while duct production and area were positively related to constitutive monoterpenes, and duct size and area were positively related to constitutive sesquiterpenes, in whitebark pine. The lack of distinct, consistent relationships between these defensive features suggests that both whitebark and lodgepole pine trees present beetles with numerous, complex combinations of resin-based defenses. Third, based on constitutive terpene profiles, bark beetles are more likely to enter lodgepole pine but more likely to successfully elicit mass attacks in whitebark pine, which agrees with beetle attack and success patterns observed in the field. Fourth, overstory competition, particularly by Engelmann spruce ( Picea engelmannii ), can influence tree defenses, specifically by reducing constitutive terpene concentrations in lodgepole and whitebark pine. Competitive tree interactions could lead to altered bark beetle-conifer interactions as host and nonhost species migrate in response to changing climate. Our results suggest that strategies designed to support whitebark pine populations can benefit from better understanding interactions among growth, competition and physical and chemical defenses in response to multiple disturbance.

Montana↗
USGS2021

High elevation ice patch documents Holocene climate variability in the northern Rocky Mountains

Paleoclimate records from ice cores generally are considered to be the most direct indicators of environmental change, but are rare from mid-latitude, continental regions such as the western United States. High-elevation ice patches are known to be important archaeological archives in alpine regions and potentially could provide records important for Earth System Model evaluation and to understand linkages between climate and early human activities, but this potential largely is unexplored. Here we use a well-dated ice-core record from a shallow ice patch to investigate Rocky Mountain winter-season climate during the Holocene. Our records indicate that this ice patch consistently accumulated ice over the past 10 kyr, preserving a regionally representative climate record of stable water isotopes and ice accretion rates that documented generally cooler and wetter conditions during the early Holocene and 500 years of anomalous winter season warmth centered at 4100 cal yr BP followed by a rapid cooling and 1500 years of cooler and wetter winters.

Montana, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Yellowstone's Old Faithful Geyser shut down by a severe 13th century drought

To characterize eruption activity of the iconic Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park over past centuries, we obtained 41 new radiocarbon dates of mineralized wood preserved in the mound of silica that precipitated from erupted waters. Trees do not grow on active geyser mounds, implying that trees grew on the Old Faithful Geyser mound during a protracted period of eruption quiescence. Rooted stumps and root crowns located on higher parts of the mound are evidence that at the time of tree growth, the geyser mound closely resembled its current appearance. The range of calibrated radiocarbon dates (1233–1362 CE) is coincident with a series of severe multidecadal regional droughts toward the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, prior to the onset of the Little Ice Age. Climate models project increasingly severe droughts by mid‐21st century, suggesting that geyser eruptions could become less frequent or completely cease.

Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota,↗
USGS2020

Millennial-scale climate and human drivers of environmental change and fire activity in a dry, mixed-conifer forest of northwestern Montana

Warm summer temperatures and longer fire seasons are promoting larger, and in some cases, more fires that are severe in low- and mid-elevation, dry mixed-conifer forests of the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM). Long-term historical fire conditions and human influence on past fire activity are not well understood for these topographically and biophysically heterogeneous forests. We developed reconstructions of millennial-scale fire activity, vegetation change, and human presence at Black Lake, a small closed-basin lake on the Flathead Indian Reservation in the Mission Valley, Northwestern Montana, United States. Fossil pollen, charcoal, and biomarkers associated with human presence were used to evaluate the interaction between climate variability, fire activity, vegetation change and human activity for the past 7000 years. Comparisons among multiple proxies suggest climate variability acted as the primary control on fire activity and vegetation change from the early Holocene until the late Holocene when records suggest fire activity and climate variability decoupled. Specific biomarkers (5β-stanols including coprostanol and epi-coprostanol) associated with human presence indicate humans were present within the Black Lake watershed for thousands of years, although the inferred intensity of human presence is highly variable. A strong relationship between climate variability and fire activity during the early and mid-Holocene weakens during the last few thousand years, suggesting possible increased influence of humans in mediating fire activity in recent millennia, and/or a shift in the interaction between the distribution and abundance of woody fuel and fire severity. Human-set fires during the cooler and wetter late Holocene may have been aimed at maintaining important cultural resources associated with the heterogeneous mosaic of mixed conifer forests within the Black Lake watershed. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction at Black Lake corroborates archeological records that show humans were present within the Black Lake watershed for over 7000 years. Further research is needed to evaluate the evidence for this continuous presence and the possible role that people played in shaping fire regimes and vegetation within low- to mid-elevation mixed-conifer ecosystems of the NRM.

Montana↗
USGS2020

Does signal-free detrending increase chronology coherence in large tree-ring networks?

Over the past decade, dendrochronologists have increasingly adopted the signal-free detrending (SFD) method to remove age-size trends in tree-ring measurement series, amplify the common stand-wide signal in composite chronologies, and recover medium- to low-frequency patterns that may be inadvertently removed by other detrending approaches. However, since its introduction in 2008, no systematic evaluation of the effects of SFD on tree-ring chronologies has been performed. Here we conduct the first review of SFD in dendrochronology and assess its effects when applied to large tree-ring networks. We analyzed the PAGES North America 2 K database of nearly 300 temperature-sensitive chronologies and the Missouri River database of over 350 chronologies curated for the purpose of reconstructing Missouri River streamflow. Both databases contain multiple versions of each chronology generated by different detrending methods, including those produced with (and without) the signal-free procedure applied. We evaluated (i) whether SFD increases chronology coherence at the site level by boosting the between-tree agreement, (ii) whether SFD increases coherence on a regional basis by making neighboring chronologies more similar to each other, and (iii) whether signal-free chronologies retained more medium- to low-frequency variability than their traditional counterparts. We find that, while SFD increased the strength of common signals in many instances, the effect was not universal and some sites even show a decrease in signal coherence. At regional scales, SFD increases chronology coherence in temperature-sensitive records but had no detectable effect on moisture-sensitive records. Our results demonstrate the importance of evaluating the effects of SFD prior to deploying this method for chronology development and paleoclimate reconstruction.

Dendrochronologia↗
USGS2020

2,200-Year tree-ring and lake-sediment based snowpack reconstruction for the northern Rocky Mountains highlights the historic magnitude of recent snow drought

In recent decades, Rocky Mountain accumulated snowpack levels have experienced rapid declines, yet long-term records of snowpack prior to the installation of snowpack observation stations in the early and mid 20th century are limited. To date, a small number of tree-ring based reconstructions of April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the northern Rocky Mountains have extended modern records of snowpack variability to ∼1200 C.E. Carbonate isotope lake sediment records, provide an opportunity to further extend tree-ring based reconstructions through the Holocene, providing a millennial-scale temporal record that allows for an evaluation of multi-scale drivers of snowpack variability, from internal climate dynamics to orbital-scale forcings. Here we present a ∼2200 year preliminary reconstruction of northern Rockies snowpack based on δ 18 O measurements of sediment carbonates collected from Foy Lake, Montana. We explore the statistical calibration of lake sediment δ 18 O to an annually resolved snowpack reconstruction from tree rings, and develop an approach to assess and quantify potential sources of error in this reconstruction approach. The sediment-based snowpack reconstruction shows strong low-frequency variability in snowpack over the last two millennia with few snow droughts approaching the magnitude of recent snowpack declines. Given the growing availability of high-resolution, carbonate-rich lake sediment records, such reconstructions could help improve our understanding of how snowpack conditions varied under previous climatic events (mid-Holocene climate optimum ca. 9−6 ka), providing critical insights for anticipating future snowpack conditions.

Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,↗
USGS2020

Basinwide hydroclimatic drought in the Colorado River basin

The Colorado River basin (CRB) supplies water to approximately 40 million people and is essential to hydropower generation, agriculture, and industry. In this study, a monthly water balance model is used to compute hydroclimatic water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff) for the period 1901–2014 across the entire CRB. The time series of monthly runoff is aggregated to compute water-year runoff and then used to identify drought periods in the basin. For the 1901–2014 period, eight basinwide drought periods were identified. The driest drought period spanned years 1901–04, whereas the longest drought period occurred during 1943–56. The eight droughts were primarily driven by winter precipitation deficits rather than warm temperature anomalies. In addition, an analysis of prehistoric drought for the CRB—computed using tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index—indicates that during some past centuries drought frequency was higher than during the twentieth century and that some centuries experienced droughts that were much longer than those during the twentieth century. More frequent or longer droughts than those that occurred during the twentieth century, combined with continued warming associated with climate change, may lead to substantial future water deficits in the CRB.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2020

Dynamics, variability, and change in seasonal precipitation reconstructions for North America

Cool and warm season precipitation totals have been reconstructed on a gridded basis for North America using 439 tree-ring chronologies correlated with December-April totals and 547 different chronologies correlated with May-July totals. These discrete seasonal predictor chronologies are not significantly correlated with the alternate season and the reconstructions calibrate at least 40% of the variance in both December-April and May-July precipitation totals over a large portion of North America for up to 2,000-years. Validation statistics computed on independent instrumental precipitation data from 1901-1927 indicate that the December-April reconstructions are reliable over most of the western and southern United States and northcentral Mexico, and the May-July estimates are valid over most of the United States, southwest Canada, and northeast Mexico. The strong continent wide El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal embedded in the cool season reconstructions, and the Arctic Oscillation signal registered by the warm season estimates, both faithfully reproduce the sign, intensity, and spatial patterns of these ocean-atmospheric influences on North American precipitation as recorded with instrumental data. The reconstructions are included in the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) and provide new insight into decadal droughts and pluvials. They indicate that the 16th century megadrought, the most severe and sustained North American drought of the past 500-years, was the combined result of three distinct seasonal droughts each bearing unique spatial patterns potentially associated with seasonal forcing from ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Significant 200- to 500-year long trends toward increased precipitation have been detected in the cool and warm season reconstructions for eastern North America. These seasonal precipitation changes appear to be part of the positive moisture trend measured in other paleoclimate proxies for the East that began due to natural forcing before the industrial revolution and may have recently been enhanced by anthropogenic climate change.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2019

Streamflow reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin using a novel Bayesian network model

A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree-ring chronologies for paleo-streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries comes together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin-scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree-ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space-time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree-ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo-streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. The spatial network structure allows a substantial reduction in the uncertainty associated with paleo-streamflow as one proceeds downstream in the network and the spatial dependence structure increases the information content. Our application to eighteen streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted-R2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross-validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. A comparison with the traditional principal components regression shows that the spatial Bayesian model offers improvements, as downstream gauges are informed by the reconstruction of the upstream gauges, as well as the tree-ring chronologies.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2019

An integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America

Climate change is increasing the severity and extent of extreme droughts events, posing a critical threat to freshwater ecosystems, particularly with increasing human demands for diminishing water supplies. Despite the importance of drought as a significant driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, current understanding of drought consequences for freshwater biodiversity is very limited. We describe key barriers that hinder integrative drought research and monitoring across riverscapes. The primary constraint limiting understanding of ecological drought is an existing monitoring framework focused on human water consumption and flood risk in mainstem rivers. This approach is misaligned with escalating needs for research and data collection that illuminate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (i.e., vulnerability) of biota to drought across entire riverscapes. We present a hierarchical framework for integrated ecological drought monitoring and research that addresses drought vulnerability across riverscapes, and describe how this approach can directly inform natural-resource management.

BioScience↗
USGS2019

Risks of hydroclimatic regime shifts across the western United States

Paleohydrologic reconstructions of water-year streamflow for 105 sites across the western United States (West) were used to compute the likelihood (risk) of regime (wet/dry state) shifts given the length of time in a specific regime and for a specified time in the future. The spatial variability of risks was examined and indicates that regime shift risks are variable across the West. The Pacific-Northwest region is associated with low risks of regime shifts, indicating persistence controlled by prevalent low frequency variability in flow (periods above 64 years). Other areas in the West indicate higher risks compared to the Pacific-Northwest due to flow variability in the mid-to-high frequencies (periods of 32 to 16 years). Understanding risks of regime shifts provides critical information for improved management of water supplies, particularly during periods of extended low flows. The method presented here has global applicability as a decision-making framework for risk-based planning and management.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗
USGS2019

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense in response to mountain pine beetle outbreaks

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a critical forest species of Northern Rocky Mountain upper subalpine ecosystems, yet little is known about the physiological response of whitebark pine to disturbance (e.g. fire, bark beetles, and pathogens) across a range of diverse environmental gradients. Resin–based defenses have long been recognized as the primary mechanism by which conifers respond to attack by bark beetles and pathogens and several studies have linked resin duct properties to survivorship during periods of increased beetle activity. However, to our knowledge, no studies have compared axial resin ducts in the secondary xylem of whitebark pine across pairs of living and dead whitebark pine trees to better understand survivorship following multiple disturbances including mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust. We found a clear distinction in growth and defense characteristics between live and dead whitebark pine. Across our study sites on the Flathead Indian Reservation in northwestern Montana, live whitebark pine produced larger resin ducts with a greater annual investment in resin–based defenses than whitebark pine that died. Resin duct size, duct area, and relative duct area were all greater in live whitebark pine (by 56%, 48%, and 57%, respectively) and these were the most important variables influencing whitebark pine survivorship. In contrast, whitebark pine that had died grew faster over time (22% larger ring widths) than their live counterparts and also produced more resin duct structures (20% more ducts on average). Whitebark pine at our study sites exhibit differing strategies in the allocation of resources toward growth and defense, with the majority of survivors of recent disturbance investing more in defensive structures than growth. Our results support the idea that maintaining genetic variability and the associated suite of differing physiological traits promotes diverse response strategies to a complex array of biophysical and biological stressors that might leave a species vulnerable to extinction across its range.

Northern Rocky Mountain↗
USGS2019

1200 years of Upper Missouri River streamflow reconstructed from tree rings

Paleohydrologic records can provide unique, long-term perspectives on streamflow variability and hydroclimate for use in water resource planning. Such long-term records can also play a key role in placing both present day events and projected future conditions into a broader context than that offered by instrumental observations. However, relative to other major river basins across the western United States, a paucity of streamflow reconstructions has to date prevented the full application of such paleohydrologic information in the Upper Missouri River Basin. Here we utilize a set of naturalized streamflow records for the Upper Missouri and an expanded network of tree-ring records to reconstruct streamflow at thirty-one gaging locations across the major headwaters of the basin. The reconstructions explain an average of 68% of the variability in the observed streamflow records and extend available records of streamflow back to 886 CE on average. Basin-wide analyses suggest unprecedented hydroclimatic variability over the region during the Medieval period, similar to that observed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, and show considerable synchrony of persistent wet-dry phasing with the Colorado River over the last 1200 years. Streamflow estimates in individual sub-basins of the Upper Missouri demonstrate increased spatial variability in discharge during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 CE) compared with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~800-1400 CE). The network of streamflow reconstructions presented here fills a major geographical void in paleohydrologic understanding and now allows for a long-term assessment of hydrological variability over the majority of the western U.S.

Upper Missouri River basin↗
USGS2018

Changing station coverage impacts temperature trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Over the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), temperatures in widely used gridded data products do not warm as much as mean temperatures from a stable set of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, located at generally lower elevations, in most months of the year. This is contrary to expectations of elevation-dependent warming, which suggests that warming increases with elevation. These findings could reflect 1) a genuine absence of elevation-dependent warming in the region, 2) systematic non-climatic influences on either the USHCN stations or high elevation stations, including known inhomogeneities related to changes in the time of observation and instrumentation, or 3) suppression of an elevation-dependent warming signal introduced by changes in the station network. While we cannot categorically dismiss the first two possibilities, we show here that over portions of the 20th century, gridded temperatures warm less than USHCN temperatures and the difference cannot be explained by accounting for known inhomogeneities. These analyses suggest that changing station coverage in the UCRB has influenced trends in gridded temperature estimates that incorporate changing suites of stations over time. Specifically, increases in the number of high-elevation stations in the UCRB may have led to an underestimation of elevation-dependent warming, particularly during the spring and summer. This phenomenon is unlikely limited to this specific basin, and may be present in other high-elevation watersheds across the western U.S.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2018

Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: Millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

A synthesis of 93 hydrologic records from across North and Central America, and adjacent tropical and Arctic islands, reveals centennial to millennial trends in the regional hydroclimates of the Common Era (CE; past 2000 years). The hydrological records derive from materials stored in lakes, bogs, caves, and ice from extant glaciers, which have the continuity through time to preserve low-frequency ( > 100 year) climate signals that may extend deeper into the Holocene. The most common pattern, represented in 46 (49 %) of the records, indicates that the centuries before 1000 CE were drier than the centuries since that time. Principal component analysis indicates that millennial-scale trends represent the dominant pattern of variance in the southwestern US, northeastern US, mid-continent, Pacific Northwest, Arctic, and tropics, although not all records within a region show the same direction of change. The Pacific Northwest and the southernmost tier of the tropical sites tended to dry toward present, as many other areas became wetter than before. In 22 records (24 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period (800–1300 CE) was drier than the Little Ice Age (1400–1900 CE), but in many cases the difference was part of the longer millennial-scale trend, and, in 25 records (27 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period represented a pluvial (wet) phase. Where quantitative records permitted a comparison, we found that centennial-scale fluctuations over the Common Era represented changes of 3–7 % in the modern interannual range of variability in precipitation, but the accumulation of these long-term trends over the entirety of the Holocene caused recent centuries to be significantly wetter, on average, than most of the past 11 000 years.

Climate of the Past↗