Geology topics

Gregory D. Steyer

Publications and source records attributed to Gregory D. Steyer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Louisiana Adaptive Management Status and Improvement Report: Vision and Recommendations

As part of the process to increase implementation of adaptive management for ecosystem-based coastal restoration within Louisiana, we aim for this report to be broadly applicable across planning processes as well as funding and implementing entities. It compiles technical knowledge and guidance summarized as key findings through the text which lead to eight priority recommendations to improve application of adaptive management in Louisiana. This report identifies critical linkage points and opportunities for knowledge and data transfers within, and among, agencies in Louisiana. The primary focus is on CPRA and others affiliated with the LA TIG. This report presents a consensus based common vision for adaptive management of coastal restoration implementation in Louisiana. As CPRA is the primary agency responsible for coordinating and facilitating coastal restoration projects within the state of Louisiana, the primary source of information and experience was collated from personnel and processes carried out at CPRA. To capture needs and mechanisms ,across agencies, extensive input was also received from the LA TIG, representing the other state and federal Trustees.

Louisiana↗

USGS2019

Council monitoring and assessment program (CMAP) compilation of existing habitat and water quality monitoring and mapping assessments for the Gulf of Mexico Region

This report is a deliverable to the RESTORE Council for Task 7: Document the existing baseline habitat and water quality conditions prior to implementation of the restoration projects; these baseline conditions will serve as a basis for measuring change/progress after restoration. It is the second in a series of CMAP reports. The first report describes the process and development of the CMAP monitoring program inventory, herein the Inventory (NOAA and USGS, 2019). The goals and objectives for the Inventory were to identify and document existing habitat and water quality monitoring, and mapping programs, data, and protocols in the GoM. The Inventory built upon existing databases, such as the Ocean Conservancy (Love, 2015), Global Change Monitoring Portal (GCMP; GCMP, 2017), and Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) databases (GOMA, 2013), including habitat and water quality monitoring programs at national, regional, State and local scales. This second report identifies and catalogs existing water quality, habitat and mapping assessments within the Gulf of Mexico. This assessment catalog, herein the Catalog, was intended to supplement the Inventory to identify the best available science necessary for restoration, conservation or management activities. Both the Inventory and the Catalog databases will be accessible to the Council and the greater GoM restoration, monitoring, management, and academic communities through a searchable web-based tool.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2019

Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP): Inventory of existing water quality and habitat monitoring, and mapping metadata for Gulf of Mexico Programs

Under the Council-Selected Restoration Component of the RESTORE Act, the Council develops Funded Priority Lists (FPLs) that describe the projects and programs it will fund. Projects and programs funded through this component must be in furtherance of the goals and objectives of the Council’s Comprehensive Plan and address at least one of the restoration criteria identified in the RESTORE Act. The Initial FPL, finalized in December of 2015, had a strong focus on watershed and estuary restoration and foundational cross-Gulf projects. Approved as a Gulf-wide investment in the 2015 Initial FPL, The Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP) is administered jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Funded activities include the development of basic, foundational components for Gulf-wide monitoring to measure beneficial impacts of investments in Gulf restoration by the Council. The program, in coordination with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and through collaboration with the Gulf States, Federal and local partners, academia, non-governmental organizations, and business and industry, has leveraged existing resources, capacities, and expertise and build on existing monitoring data and programs.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2018

Floristic quality index and forested floristic quality index: Assessment tools for restoration projects and monitoring sites in coastal Louisiana

The Floristic Quality Index (FQI) has been used in many areas throughout the United State to assess the integrity of plant communities and restoration projects. Here, we summarize two tools that have been developed for monitoring sites in coastal Louisiana wetlands. The FQI was modified for herbaceous data collected in coastal Louisiana monitoring sites. A second FQI, the Forested Floristic Quality Index (FFQI), was modified and developed to evaluate forested wetland sites that are monitored in coastal Louisiana. These tools, along with other wetland indices developed for coastal Louisiana, will aid managers in coastal restoration and making informed management decisions.

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Predicting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on soil organic carbon sequestration

Large Mississippi River (MR) diversions (peak water flow >1416 m 3 /s and sediment loads >165 kg/s) have been proposed as part of a suite of coastal restoration projects and are expected to rehabilitate and rebuild wetlands to alleviate the significant historic wetland loss in coastal Louisiana. These coastal wetlands are undergoing increasing eustatic sea‐level rise, land subsidence, climate change, and anthropogenic disturbances. However, the effect of MR diversions on wetland soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in receiving basins remains unknown. The rate of SOC sequestration or carbon burial in wetlands is one of the variables used to assess the role of wetland soils in carbon cycling and also to construct wetland carbon budgets. In this study, we examined the effects of MR water and sediment diversions on landscape‐scale SOC sequestration rates that were estimated from vertical accretion for the next 50 yr (2010–2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Our analyses were based on model simulations taken from the Wetland Morphology model developed for Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan. The master plan modeled a “future‐without‐action” scenario as well as eight individual MR diversion projects in two of the hydrologic basins (Barataria and Breton Sound). We examined the effects that discharge rates (peak flow) and locations of these individual diversion projects had on SOC sequestration rates. Modeling results indicate that large river diversions are capable of improving basin‐wide SOC sequestration capacity (162–222 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) by up to 14% (30 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) in Louisiana deltaic wetlands compared to the future‐without‐action scenario, especially under the less optimistic scenario. When large river diversions are placed in the upper receiving basin, SOC sequestration rates are 3.7–10.5% higher (6–24 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) than when these structures are placed in the lower receiving basin. Modeling results also indicate that both diversion discharge and location have large effects on SOC sequestration in low‐salinity (freshwater and intermediate marshes) as compared to high‐salinity marshes (brackish and saline marshes).

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2016

A landscape-scale assessment of above- and belowground primary production in coastal wetlands: Implications for climate change-induced community shifts

Above- and belowground production in coastal wetlands are important contributors to carbon accumulation and ecosystem sustainability. As sea level rises, we can expect shifts to more salt-tolerant communities, which may alter these ecosystem functions and services. Although the direct influence of salinity on species-level primary production has been documented, we lack an understanding of the landscape-level response of coastal wetlands to increasing salinity. What are the indirect effects of sea-level rise, i.e., how does primary production vary across a landscape gradient of increasing salinity that incorporates changes in wetland type? This is the first study to measure both above- and belowground production in four wetland types that span an entire coastal gradient from fresh to saline wetlands. We hypothesized that increasing salinity would limit rates of primary production, and saline marshes would have lower rates of above- and belowground production than fresher marshes. However, along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast in Louisiana, USA, we found that aboveground production was highest in brackish marshes, compared with fresh, intermediate, and saline marshes, and belowground production was similar among all wetland types along the salinity gradient. Multiple regression analysis indicated that salinity was the only significant predictor of production, and its influence was dependent upon wetland type. We concluded that (1) salinity had a negative effect on production within wetland type, and this relationship was strongest in the fresh marsh (0–2 PSU) and (2) along the overall landscape gradient, production was maintained by mechanisms at the scale of wetland type, which were likely related to plant energetics. Regardless of wetland type, we found that belowground production was significantly greater than aboveground production. Additionally, inter-annual variation, associated with severe drought conditions, was observed exclusively for belowground production, which may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem health than aboveground production.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2016

Determining the spatial variability of wetland soil bulk density, organic matter, and the conversion factor between organic matter and organic carbon across coastal Louisiana, U.S.A.

Soil bulk density (BD), soil organic matter (SOM) content, and a conversion factor between SOM and soil organic carbon (SOC) are often used in estimating SOC sequestration and storage. Spatial variability in BD, SOM, and the SOM–SOC conversion factor affects the ability to accurately estimate SOC sequestration, storage, and the benefits ( e.g., land building area and vertical accretion) associated with wetland restoration efforts, such as marsh creation and sediment diversions. There are, however, only a few studies that have examined large-scale spatial variability in BD, SOM, and SOM–SOC conversion factors in coastal wetlands. In this study, soil cores, distributed across the entire coastal Louisiana (approximately 14,667 km 2 ) were used to examine the regional-scale spatial variability in BD, SOM, and the SOM–SOC conversion factor. Soil cores for BD and SOM analyses were collected during 2006–09 from 331 spatially well-distributed sites in the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System network. Soil cores for the SOM–SOC conversion factor analysis were collected from 15 sites across coastal Louisiana during 2006–07. Results of a split-plot analysis of variance with incomplete block design indicated that BD and SOM varied significantly at a landscape level, defined by both hydrologic basins and vegetation types. Vertically, BD and SOM varied significantly among different vegetation types. The SOM–SOC conversion factor also varied significantly at the landscape level. This study provides critical information for the assessment of the role of coastal wetlands in large regional carbon budgets and the estimation of carbon credits from coastal restoration.

Louisiana↗

USGS2015

Operational considerations for implementing regional sediment management plans in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Development of a comprehensive and stakeholder-driven Regional Sediment Management plan can provide the basis for long-term sustainable resource use and protection. This paper highlights three operational components that can positively influence sediment management at a regional scale, including (1) integration of an operational sediment budget, (2) development of a monitoring and adaptive management plan, and (3) development of a regional sediment availability and allocation program. These components seek to incorporate science and adaptive management through implementation of an organized and well-documented decision making process. They represent a coordinated framework that could serve as a guide for unifying financial investments in regional sediment management plans. Collectively, they establish an integrated process for addressing uncertainties about future system change in light of shrinking federal and state budgets, competing demands for sediment resources within riverine and marine waters, and policy considerations related to sediment/water use (e.g., navigation and commerce versus environmental management).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Wetland paleoecological study of southwest coastal Louisiana: sediment cores and diatom calibration dataset

Wetland sediment data were collected in 2009 and 2010 throughout the southwest Louisiana Chenier Plain as part of a pilot study to develop a diatom-based proxy for past wetland water chemistry and the identification of sediment deposits from tropical storms. The complete dataset includes forty-six surface sediment samples and nine sediment cores. The surface sediment samples were collected in fresh, intermediate, and brackish marsh and are located coincident with Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) sites. The nine sediment cores were collected at the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge (RWR) located in Grand Chenier, La.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km 2 ) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions (< 283 m 3 s -1 ) tend to have limited effects of reducing landscape-scale elevation loss (< 3%) compared to a future without action (FWOA) condition. Large sediment diversions (> 1,500 m 3 s -1 ) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2013

Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2013

Development of a reproducible method for determining quantity of water and its configuration in a marsh landscape

Coastal Louisiana is a dynamic and ever-changing landscape. From 1956 to 2010, over 3,734 km 2 of Louisiana's coastal wetlands have been lost due to a combination of natural and human-induced activities. The resulting landscape constitutes a mosaic of conditions from highly deteriorated to relatively stable with intact landmasses. Understanding how and why coastal landscapes change over time is critical to restoration and rehabilitation efforts. Historically, changes in marsh pattern (i.e., size and spatial distribution of marsh landmasses and water bodies) have been distinguished using visual identification by individual researchers. Difficulties associated with this approach include subjective interpretation, uncertain reproducibility, and laborious techniques. In order to minimize these limitations, this study aims to expand existing tools and techniques via a computer-based method, which uses geospatial technologies for determining shifts in landscape patterns. Our method is based on a raster framework and uses landscape statistics to develop conditions and thresholds for a marsh classification scheme. The classification scheme incorporates land and water classified imagery and a two-part classification system: (1) ratio of water to land, and (2) configuration and connectivity of water within wetland landscapes to evaluate changes in marsh patterns. This analysis system can also be used to trace trajectories in landscape patterns through space and time. Overall, our method provides a more automated means of quantifying landscape patterns and may serve as a reliable landscape evaluation tool for future investigations of wetland ecosystem processes in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Monitoring vegetation response to episodic disturbance events by using multitemporal vegetation indices

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery and land/water assessments from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery were used to quantify the extent and severity of damage and subsequent recovery after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 within the vegetation communities of Louisiana's coastal wetlands. Field data on species composition and total live cover were collected from 232 unique plots during multiple time periods to corroborate changes in NDVI values over time. Aprehurricane 5-year baseline time series clearly identified NDVI values by habitat type, suggesting the sensitivity of NDVI to assess and monitor phenological changes in coastal wetland habitats. Monthly data from March 2005 to November 2006 were compared to the baseline average to create a departure from average statistic. Departures suggest that over 33% (4,714 km 2 ) of the prestorm, coastal wetlands experienced a substantial decline in the density and vigor of vegetation by October 2005 (poststorm), mostly in the east and west regions, where landfalls of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita occurred. The percentage of area of persistent vegetation damage due to long-lasting formation of new open water was 91.8% in the east and 81.0% and 29.0% in the central and west regions, respectively. Although below average NDVI values were observed in most marsh communities through November 2006, recovery of vegetation was evident. Results indicated that impacts and recovery from large episodic disturbance events that influence multiple habitat types can be accurately determined using NDVI, especially when integrated with assessments of physical landscape changes and field verifications.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Forecasting the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology in coastal Louisiana under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios

Few landscape scale models have assessed the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology while taking into account important uncertainties in environmental factors such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. In support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan, we developed a spatially explicit wetland morphology model and coupled it with other predictive models. The model is capable of predicting effects of protection and restoration projects on wetland area, landscape configuration, surface elevation, and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. These uncertainty scenarios included variability in parameters such as eustatic SLR (ESLR), subsidence rate, and Mississippi River discharge. Models were run for a 2010–2060 simulation period. Model results suggest that under a “future-without-action” condition (FWOA), coastal Louisiana is at risk of losing between 2118 and 4677 km 2 of land over the next 50 years, but with protection and restoration projects proposed in the Master Plan, between 40% and 75% of that loss could be mitigated. Moreover, model results indicate that under a FWOA condition, SOC storage (to a depth of 1 m) could decrease by between 108 and 250 million metric tons, a loss of 12% to 30% of the total coastwide SOC, but with the Master Plan implemented, between 35% and 74% of the SOC loss could be offset. Long-term maintenance of project effects was best attained in areas of low SLR and subsidence, with a sediment source to support marsh accretion. Our findings suggest that despite the efficacy of restoration projects in mitigating losses in certain areas, net loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana is likely to continue. Model results suggest certain areas may eventually be lost regardless of proposed restoration investment, and, as such, other techniques and strategies of adaptation may have to be utilized in these areas.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Landscape-level estimation of nitrogen removal in coastal Louisiana wetlands: potential sinks under different restoration scenarios

Coastal eutrophication in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is the primary anthropogenic contributor to the largest zone of hypoxic bottom waters in North America. Although biologically mediated processes such as denitrification (Dn) are known to act as sinks for inorganic nitrogen, it is unknown what contribution denitrification makes to landscape-scale nitrogen budgets along the coast. As the State of Louisiana plans the implementation of a 2012 Coastal Master Plan (MP) to help restore its wetlands and protect its coast, it is critical to understand what effect potential restoration projects may have in altering nutrient budgets. As part of the MP, a spatial statistical approach was developed to estimate nitrogen removal under varying scenarios of future conditions and coastal restoration project implementation. In every scenario of future conditions under which MP implementation was modeled, more nitrogen ( ) was removed from coastal waters when compared with conditions under which no action is taken. Overall, the MP increased coast-wide average nitrogen removal capacity (NRC) rates by up to 0.55 g N m −2 y −1 compared with the “future without action” (FWOA) scenario, resulting in a conservative estimate of up to 25% removal of the annual + load of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya rivers (956,480 t y −1 ). These results are spatially correlated, with the lower Mississippi River and Chenier Plain exhibiting the greatest change in NRC. Since the implementation of the MP can maintain, and in some regions increase the NRC, our results show the need to preserve the functionality of wetland habitats and use this ecosystem service ( i.e . Dn) to decrease eutrophication of the GOM.

Louisiana↗

USGS2011

Development and use of a floristic quality index for coastal Louisiana marshes

The Floristic Quality Index (FQI) has been used as a tool for assessing the integrity of plant communities and for assessing restoration projects in many regions of the USA. Here, we develop a modified FQI (FQImod) for coastal Louisiana wetlands and verify it using 12 years of monitoring data from a coastal restoration project. Plant species that occur in coastal Louisiana were assigned a coefficient of conservatism (CC) score by a local group with expertise in Louisiana coastal vegetation. Species percent cover and both native and non-native species were included in the FQImod which was scaled from 0?100. The FQImod scores from the long-term monitoring project demonstrated the utility of this index for assessing wetland condition over time, including its sensitivity to a hurricane. Ultimately, the FQI developed for coastal Louisiana will be used in conjunction with other wetland indices (e.g., hydrology and soils) to assess wetland condition coastwide and these indices will aid managers in coastal restoration and management decisions.

Louisiana↗