Geology topics

Gregor W. Schuurman

Publications and source records attributed to Gregor W. Schuurman.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2021

RAD adaptive management for transforming ecosystems

Intensifying global change is propelling many ecosystems toward irreversible transformations. Natural resource managers face the complex task of conserving these important resources under unprecedented conditions and expanding uncertainty. As once familiar ecological conditions disappear, traditional management approaches that assume the future will reflect the past are becoming increasingly untenable. In the present article, we place adaptive management within the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework to assist informed risk taking for transforming ecosystems. This approach empowers managers to use familiar techniques associated with adaptive management in the unfamiliar territory of ecosystem transformation. By providing a common lexicon, it gives decision makers agency to revisit objectives, consider new system trajectories, and discuss RAD strategies in relation to current system state and direction of change. Operationalizing RAD adaptive management requires periodic review and update of management actions and objectives; monitoring, experimentation, and pilot studies; and bet hedging to better identify and tolerate associated risks.

BioScience↗

USGS2021

A science agenda to inform natural resource management decisions in an era of ecological transformation

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.

BioScience↗

USGS2021

Divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning

Scenario planning has emerged as a widely used planning process for resource management in situations of consequential, irreducible uncertainty. Because it explicitly incorporates uncertainty, scenario planning is regularly employed in climate change adaptation. An early and essential step in developing scenarios is identifying “climate futures”—descriptions of the physical attributes of plausible future climates that could occur at a specific place and time. Divergent climate futures that describe the broadest possible range of plausible conditions support information needs of decision makers, including understanding the spectrum of potential resource responses to climate change, developing strategies robust to that range, avoiding highly consequential surprises, and averting maladaptation. Here, we discuss three approaches for generating climate futures: a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-ensemble, a quadrant-average, and an individual-projection approach. All are designed to capture relevant uncertainty, but they differ in utility for different applications, complexity, and effort required to implement. Using an application from Big Bend National Park as an example of numerous similar efforts to develop climate futures for National Park Service applications over the past decade, we compare these approaches, focusing on their ability to capture among-projection divergence during early-, mid-, and late-twenty-first century periods to align with near-, mid-, and long-term planning efforts. The quadrant-average approach and especially the individual-projection approach captured a broader range of plausible future conditions than the RCP-ensemble approach, particularly in the near term. Therefore, the individual-projection approach supports decision makers seeking to understand the broadest potential characterization of future conditions. We discuss tradeoffs associated with different climate future approaches and highlight suitable applications.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2021

Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park

This report explains scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to Wind Cave National Park as the second part of a pilot project to dovetail climate change scenario planning with National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategy development. In the orientation phase, Park and regional NPS staff, other subject-matter experts, natural and cultural resource planners, and the climate change core team who led the scenario planning project identified priority resource management topics and associated climate sensitivities. Next, the climate change core team used this information to create a set of four divergent climate futures—summaries of relevant climate data from individual climate projections—to encompass the range of ways climate could change in coming decades in the park. Participants in the scenario planning workshop then developed climate futures into robust climate-resource scenarios that considered expert-elicited resource impacts and identified potential management responses. Finally, the scenario-based resource responses identified by park staff and subject matter experts were used to integrate climate-informed adaptations into resource stewardship goals and activities for the park's Resource Stewardship Strategy. This process of engaging resource managers in climate change scenario planning ensures that their management and planning decisions are informed by assessments of critical future climate uncertainties.

South Dakota↗

USGS2021

Supporting the adaptive capacity of species through more effective knowledge exchange with conservation practitioners

There is an imperative for conservation practitioners to facilitate the ability of biodiversity to adapt to accelerating environmental change. Evolutionary biologists are well-positioned to inform the development of evidence-based management strategies that will effectively support the adaptive capacity of species and ecosystems. Conservation practitioners increasingly accept that management practices must change, but harbor concerns about how to apply recommended changes to their management contexts. Given the goodwill from both conservation practitioners and evolutionary biologists, we believe there is opportunity to accelerate the required changes by promoting closer collaboration between these two groups. We highlight how evolutionary biologists can harness lessons learned via the evidence-based conservation movement to make a substantive contribution to the development of effective conservation management practices. These lessons include: 1) recognising why practitioners do and do not use scientific evidence; 2) building an evidence base that will influence management decisions; 3) translating theory into a format that conservation practitioners can use to inform management practices; and 4) developing strategies for effective knowledge exchange. Although efforts will be required on both sides, we believe there are rewards for both practitioners and evolutionary biologists, not least of which is fostering practices that will help support the long-term persistence of species.

Evolutionary Applications↗

USGS2020

Resist-accept-direct (RAD)-A framework for the 21st-century natural resource manager

An assumption of stationarity—i.e. “the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability” (Milly et al. 2008)—underlies traditional conservation and natural resource management, as evidenced by widespread reliance on ecological baselines to guide protection, restoration, and other management. Although ecological change certainly occurred under the relatively stable conditions of the recent past, the nature of change under intensifying global change is different; it is unidirectional, and rapidly pushing beyond the bounds of historical variability. In the past, a manager could plausibly work to reverse or mitigate many stressors or their impacts to approximate pre-disturbance ecological conditions, but now accelerated warming, changing disturbance regimes, and extreme events associated with climate change reduce that potential. Indeed, even ‘holding the line’ in the face of inexorable human-caused change is ever more difficult and costly. Thus, the convention of using baseline conditions to define goals for today’s resource management is increasingly untenable, presenting practical and philosophical challenges for managers. As formerly familiar ecological conditions continue to change, bringing novelty, surprise, and uncertainty, natural resource managers require a new, shared approach to make conservation decisions. How, for example, should a manager respond to projections of loss of the Joshua tree from much of its current range, or to the emergence of new and different vegetation communities after a large fire event? The RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) decision framework has emerged over the past decade as a simple tool that captures the entire decision space for responding to ecosystems facing the potential for rapid, irreversible ecological change. It assists managers in making informed, purposeful choices about how to respond to the trajectory of change, and moreover, provides a straightforward approach to support resource managers in collaborating at larger scales across jurisdictions, which today is more urgent than ever.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2018

Moving from eco-forecasts to eco-projections

Ecological models can provide estimates of future conditions that are useful for decision-making, including long-term planning and resource prioritization. However, these models often rely on assumptions about ecological relationships and trajectories, forcings (e.g., biophysical conditions), and management approaches that may not be explicitly considered. To make assumptions more transparent, disciplines such as economics, demographics, climatology, and national intelligence make a fairly clear and consistent distinction between “forecasts” and “projections”. Forecasts are typically more near-term and rely on extending existing relationships and trends to estimate the most likely future conditions; whereas projections evaluate conditions under multiple scenarios that are based on an array of assumptions, often going further out in time. Consistently referring to ecological models of future conditions as either “eco-forecasts” or “eco-projections” could help make modelling assumptions more transparent and thus more effectively focus their application across landscapes and through time. To the extent that ecological modelling is used to support management, policy, and programmatic decisions, practitioners can ask the following. If the modelling is an eco-forecast, is it worth considering different initial conditions, trajectories, or forcings based on alternative scenarios? If the modelling is an eco-projection, are the underlying assumptions and future scenarios explicit, and are decisions properly tempered with respect to those modelling specifications? We demonstrate these concepts and methods for conducting eco-projections through examples from invasion biology and climate adaptation.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Public Summary We worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises. In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention. In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or artifacts and revealed substantial opportunities for different agencies to learn from each other and cooperate on common management goals. Follow up quantitative simulation modeling of grassland dynamics helped quantify the degree of change expected in vegetation production under the wide range of climate scenarios and suggested that (a) low grazing rates could be adversely affecting vegetation composition in the national park and (b) understanding of the management practices needed to maintain desired vegetation conditions is incomplete.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗

USGS2017

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

South Dakota↗

USGS2017

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Climate Risk Management↗

USGS2016

A call to insect scientists: Challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change

As climate change moves insect systems into uncharted territory, more knowledge about insect dynamics and the factors that drive them could enable us to better manage and conserve insect communities. Climate change may also require us revisit insect management goals and strategies and lead to a new kind of scientific engagement in management decision-making. Here we make five key points about the role of insect science in aiding and crafting management decisions, and we illustrate those points with the monarch butterfly and the Karner blue butterfly, two species undergoing considerable change and facing new management dilemmas. Insect biology has a strong history of engagement in applied problems, and as the impacts of climate change increase, a reimagined ethic of entomology in service of broader society may emerge. We hope to motivate insect biologists to contribute time and effort toward solving the challenges of climate change.

Current Opinion in Insect Science↗

USGS2016

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2015

Improving conservation outcomes with a new paradigm for understanding species’ fundamental and realized adaptive capacity

Worldwide, many species are responding to ongoing climate change with shifts in distribution, abundance, phenology, or behavior. Consequently, natural-resource managers face increasingly urgent conservation questions related to biodiversity loss, expansion of invasive species, and deteriorating ecosystem services. We argue that our ability to address these questions is hampered by the lack of explicit consideration of species’ adaptive capacity (AC). AC is the ability of a species or population to cope with climatic changes and is characterized by three fundamental components: phenotypic plasticity, dispersal ability, and genetic diversity. However, few studies simultaneously address all elements; often, AC is confused with sensitivity or omitted altogether from climate-change vulnerability assessments. Improved understanding, consistent definition, and comprehensive evaluations of AC are needed. Using classic ecological-niche theory as an analogy, we propose a new paradigm that considers fundamental and realized AC: the former reflects aspects inherent to species, whereas the latter denotes how extrinsic factors constrain AC to what is actually expressed or observed. Through this conceptualization, we identify ecological attributes contributing to AC, outline areas of research necessary to advance understanding of AC, and provide examples demonstrating how the inclusion of AC can better inform conservation and natural-resource management.

Conservation Letters↗

USGS2013

Evidence of Hybridization between Common Gartersnakes ( Thamnophis sirtalis ) and Butler’s Gartersnakes ( Thamnophis butleri ) in Wisconsin (USA).

Snakes within the genus Thamnophis (Gartersnakes and Ribbonsnakes) are often found in sympatry throughout their geographic distributions. Past work has indicated that some sympatric species within this genus may hybridize, but research of this nature is limited. We attempted to determine whether hybridization occurs between two Thamnophis species native to the upper midwestern United States: Common Gartersnake ( Thamnophis sirtalis ) and the Butler's Gartersnake ( Thamnophis butleri ). We sampled snakes ( n = 411) across 26 locations in Wisconsin, including sites where both species coexist and sites where only Common Gartersnakes are found. We conducted genetic analyses on tissue collected from individuals field-identified as Common Gartersnakes or Butler's Gartersnakes. To verify the results of our field-collected data, we analyzed tissues from juvenile snakes ( n = 4) suspected to be the offspring of a Common Gartersnake and a Butler's Gartersnake that were housed together in a captive situation. Of the field-collected snakes analyzed, eight snakes were consistent with expected Common × Butler's Gartersnake hybrids. All four of the captive offspring analyzed resolved as putative hybrids, corresponding with our field-collected samples. Butler's Gartersnake is a globally rare species, endemic only to the upper midwestern United States. Studies involving the potential for hybridization between common and uncommon species are useful from a conservation perspective. The low incidence of hybridization we observed would indicate that hybridization between these species is uncommon. Further research investigating rates of hybridization would help assess any potential threat posed by outbreeding between common and rare gartersnakes in this region of the United States.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Novel microsatellite loci for studies of Thamnophis Gartersnake genetic identity and hybridization

Butler’s Gartersnakes (BGS; Thamnophis butleri ) are confined to open and semi-open canopy wetlands and adjacent uplands, habitats under threat of development in Wisconsin. To address issues of species identity and putative hybridization with congeneric snakes, a suite of 18 microsatellite loci capable of cross-species amplification of Plains Gartersnakes ( T. radix ) and Common Gartersnakes ( T. sirtalis ) was developed. All loci were polymorphic in BGS with mean number of alleles per locus of 16.11 (range = 3–41) and mean observed heterozygosity of 0.659 (range = 0.311–0.978). Loci amplified efficiently in the congeneric species with high levels of intra- and inter-specific variation. These loci will aid ongoing efforts to effectively identify and manage BGS in Wisconsin.

Conservation Genetics Resources↗